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eric gonzalez juenke

@egojunk.bsky.social
4.5K followers 2.1K following 4.5K posts

Personal account. I study and teach racial and ethnic politics for work. Re-posting election twitter stuff. goodauthority.org/people/eric-gonza…

PostsRepliesMedia
eric gonzalez juenke @egojunk.bsky.social · 8h
“Red undertow” is just composition effects with a top hat and monocle. Composition effects rule during midterms. www.nytimes.com/2026/10/08/u...
nytimes.com
‘He’s Not Making Sense’: How Trump Has Alienated Voters for the G.O.P. (Gift Article)
Signs are emerging that dispirited Republican voters may stay home in November, bringing a Democratic surge without many conversions.
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Jamie Schler @lifesafeast.bsky.social · 9h
If you missed my post on French onion soup… I share the recipe the French have made at home for centuries - and still do - and explain why it is this way and how it morphed into the recipe Americans know & Parisian bistros serve today. jamieschler.substack.com/p/authentic-...
jamieschler.substack.com
Authentic French Onion Soup
Top off your New Year’s Eve revelry the traditional French way.
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S. Erdem Aytaç @seaytac.bsky.social · 11h
🚨🚨 New working paper! What happens to citizens’ democratic priorities when power changes hands? We (w/ Natasha Wunsch) explore this by drawing on a three-wave panel survey and a repeated conjoint experiment fielded around Hungary’s April 2026 elections (1/4, link at the end)...
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eric gonzalez juenke @egojunk.bsky.social · 20h
Didn’t know the hell of Dem fundraising texts until I made the mistake of donating to a few races last month. This is madness.
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Lupita Nihongo @otsumamiboy.blacksky.app · 22h
No Regrets in the mugshot is what’s smoking me the most right now
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Bloomberg News @bloomberg.com · 22h
Bettors are chasing prediction-market wagers promising returns of 1,000% or more. A Bloomberg analysis of over a billion trades shows how those longshots cost customers and power the platforms.
bloom.bg
Longshots Losing 98% of Time Dominate Kalshi, Polymarket Trading
Prediction markets tout themselves as “truth machines,” but trading data shows a lot of casino-like bets.
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Efrén Pérez @efrenpolipsy.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
Starting next Monday, this gem in the Elements series I edit will be FREE to download. Highly relevant and timely scholarship from 2 major voices in Latino Politics 🇵🇪 /🇲🇽 www.cambridge.org/core/element...
cambridge.org
Walls, Cages, and Family Separation
Cambridge Core - Sociology of Race and Ethnicity - Walls, Cages, and Family Separation
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Kevin Collins @kwcollins.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
New poll from Natalie Jackson's (newish) shop Centerline Research and Strategy, with an interesting methodological twist: weighting by religious affiliation rather than party, with a note that Evangelicals (who skew MAGA w/in the GOP) were under-represented stuckmiddle.substack.com/p/introducin...
stuckmiddle.substack.com
Introducing the Centerline National Poll
And why I weighted to religious affiliation and not partisanship.
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The Upshot @upshot.nytimes.com · 07/10/2026
www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
nytimes.com
Latest Polls (Free Access)
Track all the polls from today, including the latest data on the 2026 midterm elections, governor’s races, President Trump’s approval rating and more.
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Holly Brewer @earlymodjustice.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
The demographic cliff is such a problematic term. It’s actually only - a 13-15% decline in college student populations over a fifteen year period (to 2041) — so less than 1% a year. It excuses a lot of administrative poor decisions. www.npr.org/2025/01/08/n...
npr.org
A looming 'demographic cliff': Fewer college students and ultimately fewer graduates
The long-predicted downturn in the number of 18-year-olds is almost here. And it isn't just a problem for higher education. It's a looming crisis for the economy.
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eric gonzalez juenke @egojunk.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
Some Red state Republicans never expected to have to campaign again and it’s showing.
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eric gonzalez juenke @egojunk.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
Board might be rotten.
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eric gonzalez juenke @egojunk.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
You will never have a better CV than John Urschel. math.mit.edu/~urschel/
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eric gonzalez juenke @egojunk.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
This second part all day. We don’t know which direction the polling error will be. It’s not knowable with the info we have. We can make informed guesses. Either way, one side will have been “right all along.”
There will probably be a poll error in one direction or another, and so one of these groups will be correct. And it will be received wisdom that it was obvious all along that their interpretation was the correct one. 2/
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eric gonzalez juenke @egojunk.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
The irony of reposting this is killing me.
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E.J. Fagan @ejfagan.com · 06/10/2026
Updated party id + leaners from Gallup compared to actual results. Another bit of data pointing toward a better environment for Democrats than 2006 or 2018.
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JLRay @jlray.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
Here in Texas, Republicans basically aren't even bothering with Spanish-language ads. This sends a negative competence signal to many Latino voters, who are generally English fluent but get the message that Republicans don't care about them. www.texastribune.org/2026/10/02/t...
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Nick Carnes @carnes.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
The real reason working-class people almost never become politicians anywhere is that running for office is extremely personally burdensome, and that screens out the people who live the most precarious lives, including working-class people.
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Nick Carnes @carnes.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
It's finally publication day for this decade-in-the-making book. @noamlupu.bsky.social and I explain why working-class jobs make up 70% of the average democracy's labor force, but only 2% of the average democracy's national lawmakers had working-class jobs when they got into politics.
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eric gonzalez juenke @egojunk.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
Great discussion of what polling weights do to poll results. Amazing to see them release both versions. Nonetheless, this is a Trump +21 state leg. district in Iowa. articles.statenavigate.com/ia/a-canary-...

IA SD-35 (Trump +21)
Standard Weighting
•Zimmer 46% (incumbent)
•Stutting 43%
•Sand 47%
•Stutting 42%
Weighting with 2024 Recall
• Stutting 47%
•Zimmer 45% (incumbent)
•Stutting 45%
•Sand 45%
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Kevin Morris @kevintmorris.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
Hey hey -- it's publication day! Couldn't be more excited for this to be out in the world. press.princeton.edu/books/hardco...
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eric gonzalez juenke @egojunk.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
This is a novel little experiment to address a tricky problem. Good read.
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Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT @mikezaccardi.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
USA is No. 1! In data centers. @Reuters @soberlook thedailyshot.com/sub...
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Drew Engelhardt @amengel.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
A couple interesting trends in media attitudes by partisanship from Gallup.
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Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT @mikezaccardi.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
Average annual S&P 500 returns under partisan control since 1933: When a Republican President is paired with a Democratic House and Senate, the average annual return is just 7.3% (30 instances). Keith Lerner at Truist @soberlook thedailyshot.com/sub...
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Christopher Farnsworth @chrisfarnsworth.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
What's really wild about this ad is it presents this guy's outright theft of a co-worker's ideas as "competition."
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eric gonzalez juenke @egojunk.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
Found it. Insane. www.ispot.tv/ad/SoDi/micr...
ispot.tv
Microsoft Copilot TV Spot, 'Competitive'
The ad features an office worker, Kyle, who uses Microsoft Copilot to enhance his data analysis in Excel, making his work "beautiful" and outperforming a colleague. It highlights how Copilot...
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eric gonzalez juenke @egojunk.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
I saw this ad yesterday and can’t find it now. Anyone have this? The ad was literally “this is a plagiarism machine that will let you steal your coworker’s ideas.”
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farner @farnerb0cken.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
men who sacrifice liberty for bibberty deserve neither
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The A.V. Club @avclub.com · 06/10/2026
AI has come for comics on stage and in The New Yorker
avclub.com
AI has come for comics on stage and in The New Yorker
As one comedian discovers an AI-generated woman stealing his jokes, a slew of New Yorker cartoonists are having their signatures added to slop. 
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eric gonzalez juenke @egojunk.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
Does this get the smugly detached comedian community off the couch?
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eric gonzalez juenke @egojunk.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
Party-driven descriptive representation. Dem waves bring record numbers because of who the parties run for office. goodauthority.org/news/its-202...
goodauthority.org
It’s 2025. Why doesn’t Congress reflect America’s population?
Solving a data problem changed how we think about representation.
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Science Magazine @science.org · 05/10/2026
Exclusive: A new analysis refutes James Watson’s claim that he was the first to recognize the significance of the famed photograph 51. scim.ag/4rTKck8
scim.ag
How did Rosalind Franklin miss the helix in her iconic DNA image? She didn’t
New analysis refutes James Watson’s claim he was first to recognize significance of famed photograph 51
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eric gonzalez juenke @egojunk.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
One of the weirdest elections no one is talking about is in my backyard. Trump +1 district. No polling. About a coin flip in the markets (60%). This should be a slam dunk in a Blue wave year, and yet.
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Dj @djsoke.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
Republican state rep in Texas:
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eric gonzalez juenke @egojunk.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
It's petty but I think about Pat Ruffini every time one of these drops.
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eric gonzalez juenke @egojunk.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
This remains one of the students’ favorite exercises nearly 6 years later. We do it live in class. They are shocked that some republicans want organic food and some dems drink bud light. www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
nytimes.com
Quiz: Can You Tell a ‘Trump’ Fridge From a ‘Biden’ Fridge? (Published 2020)
What the contents of our refrigerators say about our politics — and our assumptions.
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Ryan J. McComb @bayespr.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
Every Map Everywhere All at Once. Check out my new research blog post! www.mccomb.ca/writing/ever...
mccomb.ca
Every Map Everywhere All at Once
Good Algorithms Finish First: ten thousand exact neutral maps of a state in two seconds on a laptop, about a hundred times faster than redist.
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Stephen Wolf @stephenwolf.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
New York Times/Siena polls find Dems gaining the governors offices in Alaska, Iowa, Texas, and Ohio. That would give Dems control over election admin in Alaska and Texas. It’s a sign that Dems could also win for secretary of state in Iowa and Ohio in this environment www.nytimes.com/2026/10/04/u...
Chart of Siena poll results in five governor's races, showing each candidate's estimated support with margin-of-error bars. Democrats lead in Iowa (Sand 52%, Lahn 41%), Alaska (Kreiss-Tomkins 52, Wilson 48), Texas (Hinojosa 49, Abbott 46) and Ohio (Acton 49, Ramaswamy 45). The Republican leads in Kansas (Masterson 49, Holscher 44)
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eric gonzalez juenke @egojunk.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
The GOP has all but given up on Indies and are going all in on boosting R turnout instead (cultural issue ads, more Trump, etc.). But normie R's who aren't on already board are more likely to be turned off by more Trump in the campaign. "Hair of the dog" doesn't work.
This illustrates the below point - the hesitant GOP voters are less Trumpy than the party as a whole
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Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT @mikezaccardi.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
The "Higher Rates, Higher Rent Doom Loop" is a major trap for the Fed: 1. High rates mean builders build less 2. Fewer homes mean rents go up 3. Higher rents push inflation higher (shelter is ~25% of CPI) 4. Sticky inflation keeps rates high A vicious cycle. 📉🏠 T at Apollo
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eric gonzalez juenke @egojunk.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
Trump approval estimates by state house and senate districts. Potential data goldmine for state politics. projects.statenavigate.com/interactives...
projects.statenavigate.com
Trump Approval
Explore modeled approval by state and legislative district. All adults, October 2, 2026.
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The Upshot @upshot.nytimes.com · 03/10/2026
A nugget from Nate Cohn on Adam Hamilton in the Kansas Senate race. (Our poll had it as a tie.) www.nytimes.com/2026/10/03/u...
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Jay Van Bavel, PhD @jayvanbavel.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
Will A.I. Make Your Brain Lazy? When people become accustomed to skipping the productive struggle of analytical tasks by using AI, they give up on hard questions that they could otherwise figure out. www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
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ElectionCord @electioncord.com · 03/10/2026
I updated the GIGAMODEL for today, which looks at 9 different forecasters/models' Senate ratings and predictions. Overall, a pretty clear movement to Democrats from the last update, especially in states like Kansas, Michigan & Iowa. LINK: docs.google.com/spreadsheets... Ratings changes ⬇️
docs.google.com
GIGAMODEL
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eric gonzalez juenke @egojunk.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
I’d watch/listen to a documentary about people who write on bathroom walls. Who are these people? Are they always carrying? Are they psychopaths everywhere else? @thisamericanlife.org
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E.J. Fagan @ejfagan.com · 03/10/2026
Okay I'm crazy so I had Claude create an interactive dashboard where you can model the results. claude.ai/artifact/XQN...
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E.J. Fagan @ejfagan.com · 03/10/2026
Assuming a uniform national shift from 2022, here is my estimate of what gains Democrats could make in state legislatures. Right now they take AZ, WI, MN, MI. PA Senate likely. Some others in striking distance. Vibe coding caveats apply.
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eric gonzalez juenke @egojunk.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
Link here: www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
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Colin M. Henry @henryhenryhenry.com · 02/10/2026
you know what Muse is super good for? exfiltrating bulk data from Meta platforms without research API access eg every Instagram account of every Congressional candidate in Texas
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