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Ryan J. McComb

@bayespr.bsky.social
51 followers 12 following 38 posts

Data Science Fellow @VoteHub.com

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Reposted by Ryan J. McComb
Ryan J. McComb @bayespr.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
Every Map Everywhere All at Once. Check out my new research blog post! www.mccomb.ca/writing/ever...
mccomb.ca
Every Map Everywhere All at Once
Good Algorithms Finish First: ten thousand exact neutral maps of a state in two seconds on a laptop, about a hundred times faster than redist.
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Ryan J. McComb @bayespr.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
Every Map Everywhere All at Once. Check out my new research blog post! www.mccomb.ca/writing/ever...
mccomb.ca
Every Map Everywhere All at Once
Good Algorithms Finish First: ten thousand exact neutral maps of a state in two seconds on a laptop, about a hundred times faster than redist.
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Ryan J. McComb @bayespr.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
Props to the whole team. This is the most futuristic way to view early voting data — we model the early vote in real time, and you can see it all live. Thanks to our friends at L2 Data!
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Ryan J. McComb @bayespr.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
Super excited to have done a bit of research and worked on this over a few weeks! We're going to need a lot more GPU hours until we can fully determine the extent of how predictive satellite modeling is, but it is interesting to say the least!
ryanmccomb.substack.com
Geography is All You Need
With the recent launch of Google’s WeatherNext 3 and some incredibly cool research out of Google DeepMind on AlphaEarth, which compresses satellite imagery into a 64-dimensional vector embedding, I’ve...
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Reposted by Ryan J. McComb
VoteHub @votehub.com · 07/09/2026
As of today, our forecast gives Democrats a 76% chance of flipping the House and a 47% chance of taking the Senate. The two are highly correlated: Republicans keep the Senate 99% of the time they hold the House, and Democrats take it 62% of the time they flip the House.
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Reposted by Ryan J. McComb
VoteHub @votehub.com · 18/06/2026
If a forensic accountant saw these numbers, they'd probably open an investigation. But they're looking at ordinary donations. Why do ActBlue and WinRed contributions fail Benford's Law, a famous test for financial fraud? New analysis from @bayespr.bsky.social votehub.com/2026/06/18/a...
votehub.com
Are the Campaigns Cooking the Books?
A 90-year-old fraud test flags American campaign finance as full of anomalies. What looks like fraud is just good user interface design by ActBlue and WinRed.
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Reposted by Ryan J. McComb
VoteHub @votehub.com · 08/04/2026
VoteHub projects Clayton Fuller to win the Georgia U.S. House District 14 general election.
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Reposted by Ryan J. McComb
VoteHub @votehub.com · 07/04/2026
NEW — Democrats are poised to flip a Wisconsin Supreme Court seat and expand their majority, with turnout set to decide the margin in a low-salience race. We break down what to watch tonight. Read our full preview by @bayespr.bsky.social 👇 votehub.com/2026/04/07/w...
votehub.com
Wisconsin Spring Election Preview
Democrats are favored to flip a Wisconsin Supreme Court seat and expand their majority, with margin hinging on turnout.
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Ryan J. McComb @bayespr.bsky.social · 11/02/2026
Hey, is that me? :) evanstonroundtable.com/2026/02/10/e...
evanstonroundtable.com
ETHS student aims to forecast 9th District Congressional race using betting market data - Evanston RoundTable
As the Democratic primary to succeed retiring U.S. Rep. Jan Schakowsky ramps up in its final weeks, an Evanston Township High School student is developing
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Ryan J. McComb @bayespr.bsky.social · 08/02/2026
IL9.org MODEL!! yay! After overwriting tons of data multiple times in Stata, we have the first model, tons of tedious work but check it out 👇 Model: il9.org/odds
il9.org
IL9Cast - Illinois 9th District Democratic Primary 2026 Forecast
Live prediction market aggregation for Illinois 9th District Democratic Primary. Real-time odds updated every 3 minutes from Manifold Markets and Kalshi.
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Ryan J. McComb @bayespr.bsky.social · 08/02/2026
25,000 simulations in, this is what the model is saying. Due to Kat's apparent fervent support among people who identify as "very liberal," (MDW crosstabs) she receives a better vote share when fewer people show up and the highest propensity liberals. For context 75,000 showed up in 2024.
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Ryan J. McComb @bayespr.bsky.social · 08/02/2026
Official #IL09 Forecasting thread! Let's keep it here 👇
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Ryan J. McComb @bayespr.bsky.social · 08/02/2026
transit use may be the #1 predictor of high-propensity dem primary voters??
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Ryan J. McComb @bayespr.bsky.social · 08/02/2026
Hmmmmmm.....
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Ryan J. McComb @bayespr.bsky.social · 08/02/2026
A whale (or a sharp for all we know) bought a ton of YES contracts on Kat today. Immediately, the market makers came back to a bid-ask of 19 at 30 (now much tighter with 20 at 25). However, Kalshi still showed 37% odds, IL9.org immediately recognized this and throttled the Kalshi last-price weight.
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Ryan J. McComb @bayespr.bsky.social · 07/02/2026
Currently a 31% chance of a Biss-1st/ Fine-2nd finish! Check out more advanced Heatmap data and more 👇 IL9.org
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Reposted by Ryan J. McComb
Matthew Eadie @mattheweadie.bsky.social · 07/02/2026
Evanston Township High School student Ryan McComb built a really cool real-time aggregator site that collects data points on prediction markets, fundraising data and a bunch of other stuff for #IL09 👇🏼 Super cool stuff il9.org
il9.org
IL9Cast - Illinois 9th District Democratic Primary 2026 Forecast
Live prediction market aggregation for Illinois 9th District Democratic Primary. Real-time odds updated every 3 minutes from Manifold Markets and Kalshi.
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Reposted by Ryan J. McComb
Ryan J. McComb @bayespr.bsky.social · 07/02/2026
This district’s primaries have had maybe two competitive races since my grandparents were born… and none in my lifetime, or almost two of my lifetimes, for that matter. Two people — Yates and Schakowsky, have represented this seat for 97.5% of the time since 1949. (there was a small break in 63’)
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Reposted by Ryan J. McComb
The New York Times @nytimes.com · 06/03/2024
On Super Tuesday, voters in 15 states will determine how 854 ⎯ more than a third of the total available ⎯ delegates will be distributed between the two remaining Republican candidates, Donald Trump and Nikki Haley. Follow live results here. www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
A graphic shows the Republican delegate count entering Super Tuesday. Donald Trump has 273 and Nikki Haley has 43. To win the nomination, 1,215 delegates are needed. There is a map that shows how many delegates are at stake in each of the 15 states that are holding primaries or caucuses on Tuesday, including Virginia, Vermont, Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas and Utah.
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Ryan J. McComb @bayespr.bsky.social · 06/12/2023
One thing I have noticed about this place is that the average education level is close to or above a masters.
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