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Drew Bailey

@drewhalbailey.bsky.social
1.6K followers 287 following 92 posts

education, developmental psychology, research methods at UC Irvine

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Reposted by Drew Bailey
Andy de Barros @andydebarros.bsky.social · 25/03/2026
New paper: Morocco's Pioneer Middle Schools—a government-led whole-school reform—improved socioemotional skills, tripled year-on-year learning, reduced dropout ~1/3. "Beyond Basics" w/ Campos Quintero, El Amrani Mida, Glewwe, Kumar, and Lépine de-barros.com/publication/... @cega-uc.bsky.social
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Guido Imbens @imbens.bsky.social · 21/03/2026
Don’t Do Difference In Differences (DDDID), cheers, guido
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Megan Stevenson @meganstevenson.bsky.social · 11/03/2026
Excited to share a new paper with @jfischman, just accepted at JEL. We argue that empirical research tends to be biased and overconfident due to a weakness in the dominant econometric framework: insufficient attention paid to humans “in the loop” with the research process. 1/
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Annenberg Institute @annenberginstitute.bsky.social · 18/02/2026
📢 #EdWorkingPapers: Tyler Watts, @emmarosehart.bsky.social, & @drewhalbailey.bsky.social analyze 87 RCTs & find that fadeout is common across most programs. Intervention characteristics explain only a small share of differences in persistence. 📄 bit.ly/4aGrXY4
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Emma Hart @emmarosehart.bsky.social · 12/02/2026
Why do educational intervention impacts fade? Isn't catch-up a good thing? Are sleeper effects real? Does fadeout mean failure? @drewhalbailey.bsky.social, Tyler Watts, and I address these questions & more in an EdNext piece & 4 new working papers! www.educationnext.org/why-do-most-...
educationnext.org
Why Do Most Education Interventions Fade Out Over Time?
There is evidence both to explain and complicate the “fadeout effect”
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Drew Bailey @drewhalbailey.bsky.social · 25/01/2026
Replying to @bwroberts.bsky.social on cross-lagged panel models open.substack.com/pub/drewhalb...
open.substack.com
Replying to Brent on cross lagged panel models
Last week, Brent Roberts blogged on “The Inconceivability of the CLPM and RI-CLPM”.
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Drew Bailey @drewhalbailey.bsky.social · 21/01/2026
Person at talk translating all model descriptions into formal equations is the academic talk version of the person filling out the scorecard at a baseball game.
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Reposted by Drew Bailey
Michael Clemens @mclem.org · 04/12/2025
This fetid landmark, this historical stain on humanity is primarily due to the stunningly reckless obliteration of America's foreign assistance agency earlier this year. Led by the richest man on earth. In secret, on a weekend. With zero analysis or discussion of its catastrophic impacts.
wsj.com
For First Time in Decades, Child Deaths Will Rise This Year
Almost a quarter of a million more children around the world are projected to die in 2025 than in 2024.
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Ruben C. Arslan @ruben.the100.ci · 03/12/2025
Fadeout of cognitive training remains one of the more replicable findings in psychology in this preregistered study of 300 preschool children. Well-done study with a 4 year follow up. The language gains either faded or the control group caught up. journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10....
Fig. 3. Effects of the intervention. In (a) are shown effects 7 months after the intervention; in (b) are shown interaction effects 7 months after the intervention. Models show the effects of the intervention on expressive-language skills in the grade 1 posttest, with an interaction between expressive-language skills in the pretest and after the intervention. Standardized coefficients (with 95% confidence intervals) are shown, except for the intervention dummy variable and the interaction where y-standardized values are indicated. Rectangles and circles contain observed variables and latent variables, respectively. Solid arrows point to significant regression or factor loadings (arrows from latent variables to their observed indicators); the arrow with dotted lines shows nonsignificant regression. The interaction (Fig. 3b) is illustrated by the arrow from the black circle to expressive language in the posttest. **p < .01.Fig. 4. Long-term effects of the intervention on expressive-language skills. Model showing the effect of the intervention on expressive-language skills in the grade 4 posttest. Standardized coefficients (with 95% CIs) are shown, except for the intervention dummy variable where y-standardized values (equal to Cohen’s d) are indicated. Rectangles and circles contain observed variables and latent variables, respectively. Solid arrows point to significant regression or factor loadings (arrows from latent variables to their observed indicators); arrows with dotted lines show nonsignificant regression. **p < .01.
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Rich Lucas @richlucas.bsky.social · 19/09/2025
Interested in models used to estimate lagged effects in panel data? We (@rebiweidmann.bsky.social, Hyewon Yang) have a new paper looking at patterns of stability and their implications for bias and model choice: osf.io/preprints/ps... [1/x]
osf.io
OSF
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Drew Bailey @drewhalbailey.bsky.social · 25/08/2025
Collider effect in the real world!
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Drew Bailey @drewhalbailey.bsky.social · 18/08/2025
About 2/3 of the posts on this platform linking to the recent NYT article on null findings from Baby’s First Years have this reaction. You can search the headline and verify yourself! www.nytimes.com/2025/07/28/u...
nytimes.com
Study May Undercut Idea That Cash Payments to Poor Families Help Child Development
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Drew Bailey @drewhalbailey.bsky.social · 09/08/2025
I used Paige’s first book in a class students with a wide range of previous exposure to and attitudes about behavior genetics, and they all seem to find it very interesting. Will probably try this one too!
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Drew Bailey @drewhalbailey.bsky.social · 29/07/2025
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Drew Bailey @drewhalbailey.bsky.social · 25/07/2025
Random Intercepts and Slopes in Longitudinal Models: When Are They "Good" and "Bad" Controls? or Illusory Traits 2: Revenge of the Slopes Led by Siling Guo, with Nicolas Hübner, Steffen Zitzmann, Martin Hecht, and Kou Murayama. Comments welcome! osf.io/preprints/ps...
osf.io
OSF
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Julia M. Rohrer @dingdingpeng.the100.ci · 25/06/2025
New blog post! Let's say you've measured two variables repeatedly and want to investigate how one affects the other over time. Here are some recommendations for how to do that well. www.the100.ci/2025/06/25/r...
the100.ci
Reviewer notes: So you’re interested in “lagged effects.”
In some fields, researchers who end up with time series of two variables of interest (X and Y) like to analyze (reciprocal) lagged effects between them. Does X affect Y at a later point in time, and d...
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Kevin M. King @kevinmking.bsky.social · 20/06/2025
6) LCGAs never replicate across datasets or in the same dataset. They usually just produce the salsa pattern (Hi/med/low) or the cats cradle (Hi/low/increasing/decreasing). This has misled entire fields (see all of George Bonnano's work on resilience, for example). psycnet.apa.org/fulltext/201...
psycnet.apa.org
APA PsycNet
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Ruben C. Arslan @ruben.the100.ci · 13/06/2025
Our paper "A fragmented field" has just been accepted at AMPPS. We find it's not just you, psychology is really getting more confusing (construct and measure fragmentation is rising). We updated the preprint with the (substantial) revision, please check it out. osf.io/preprints/ps...
Treemap showing measurement fragmentation across subfields in psychology. Hill-Shannon Diversity 𝐷=1626.05How often measures in the APA PsycTESTS database are (re)used according to the APA PsycInfo database: rarely, the majority are never reused.Our fragmentation index (Hill-Shannon diversity) over time across subdisciplines shows fragmentation rising.
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Drew Bailey @drewhalbailey.bsky.social · 11/06/2025
I have seen lots of higher ed talks and papers in the last 10 years convincingly demonstrating that just making some cutoff (getting into a more selective college or major, not taking remedial classes) helps the marginal student. Great to see an emerging consensus. (1/2)
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Drew Bailey @drewhalbailey.bsky.social · 11/06/2025
For every cause, x, there is some group of people (often disproportionately people who study x) who think the effects of x are way bigger than they are. Therefore, I think we are doomed to read (or worse, make) "Yeah, but the effect of x is small" takes forever.
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Reposted by Drew Bailey
Paul Bogdan @pbogdan.bsky.social · 09/04/2025
I investigated how often papers' significant (p < .05) results are fragile (.01 ≤ p < .05) p-values. An excess of such p-values suggests low odds of replicability. From 2004-2024, the rates of fragile p-values have gone down precipitously across every psychology discipline (!)
Mix of Figures 2 and 4 from the paper
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CEC Division for Research (CEC-DR) @cec-dr.bsky.social · 12/05/2025
IN MEMORY OF LYNN FUCHS The field of special education lost a visionary and beloved leader with the passing of Lynn Fuchs on May 7, 2025. Her absence leaves a profound void—not only in our scholarly community, but in the hearts of all who had the privilege of knowing her. [ click reading below ]
conta.cc
In Memory of Lynn Fuchs
Email from CEC Division for Research May 12, 2025 In Memory of Lynn Fuchs The field of special education lost a visionary and beloved leader with the passing of Lynn Fuchs on May 7, 2025. Her absenc
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Julia M. Rohrer @dingdingpeng.the100.ci · 11/05/2025
Thanks to everybody who chimed in! I arrived at the conclusion that (1) there's a lot of interesting stuff about interactions and (2) the figure I was looking for does not exist. So, I made it myself! Here's a simple illustration of how to control for confounding in interactions:>
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Drew Bailey @drewhalbailey.bsky.social · 03/05/2025
Is there a name for the fallacy that, because things are different from each other, one cannot compare them? (If not, I propose the “apples and oranges fallacy”) @stefanschubert.bsky.social
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Reposted by Drew Bailey
Julia M. Rohrer @dingdingpeng.the100.ci · 29/04/2025
Starting to feel like "don't look at the coefficients, just calculate whatever metric is relevant to your research question" is a highly underappreciated stats hack and also I may have to get myself a marginaleffects T-shirt.
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Klint Kanopka @klint.bsky.social · 28/03/2025
Incredibly excited to have this finally come out! Model evaluation should be about comparisons, so we have a metric that puts comparisons in predictive performance on a common scale. I can’t make a thread about this better than @crahal.com, so I’ll let him take it away.
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Reposted by Drew Bailey
Stéphane Helleringer @shelleringer.bsky.social · 26/02/2025
Surreal read of the day: a paper using USAID-funded and now terminated Demographic & Health Surveys to count the huge number of lives saved by the now frozen US PEPFAR program to fight HIV, co-authored by current US admin’s nominee to lead cuts in health research jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...
jamanetwork.com
HIV Development Assistance and Adult Mortality in Africa
To determine the effects of the US President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR), Bendavid and coauthors conducted analyses of adult mortality using person-level data from the Demographic and He...
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Nick Huntington-Klein @nickchk.com · 25/02/2025
After a long wait, the working paper for the Many-Economists Project: The Sources of Researcher Variation in Economics. We had 146 teams perform the same research three times, each time with less freedom. What source of freedom leads to different choices and results? papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
papers.ssrn.com
The Sources of Researcher Variation in Economics
We use a rigorous three-stage many-analysts design to assess how different researcher decisions—specifically data cleaning, research design, and the interpretat
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Drew Bailey @drewhalbailey.bsky.social · 12/02/2025
A clear and compelling read on IES. I hope policymakers pay attention to this. There is a very strong bipartisan case to be made for continuing to fund the development, evaluation, and syntheses of evaluations of educational programs.
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June Ahn @ahnjune.bsky.social · 10/02/2025
Check out my amazing colleague, collaborator and leader of the Playful Learning Landscapes work in Orange County: news.uci.edu/2025/02/07/u...
news.uci.edu
UCI Podcast: Bringing the classroom into the community
Andres Bustamante is transforming common spaces into places of learning
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Stuart Buck @stuartbuck.bsky.social · 08/02/2025
New essay on NIH and indirect costs: goodscience.substack.com/p/indirect-c...
goodscience.substack.com
Indirect Costs at NIH . . .
I wasn’t planning on spending part of a Saturday writing about cost accounting principles and the like, but NIH-world was hit with a doozy of a policy announcement on Friday night:
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Drew Bailey @drewhalbailey.bsky.social · 01/02/2025
Free million dollar idea: food truck that sells mapo tofu and cornbread.
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Jason Yeatman @jyeatman.bsky.social · 24/01/2025
Cool new review from @drewhalbailey.bsky.social that’s well worth the read! www.annualreviews.org/content/jour...
annualreviews.org
Learning About Development from Interventions | Annual Reviews
In this review, we argue that the role of causally informative evaluations of interventions within developmental psychology should be elevated. Causally informative research on the effects of interven...
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Terri Pigott @terripigott.bsky.social · 21/01/2025
Do you know a US-based researcher who wants to update their meta-analysis skills? #MATI2025 is accepting applications for our one-week training workshop in Chicago from July 28th – August 1st. Apply by March 2nd: www.meta-analysis-training-institute.com/application-...
meta-analysis-training-institute.com
Application Info | Meta-Analysis Training Institute
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C. Kirabo Jackson @kirabojackson.bsky.social · 11/01/2025
As I am now handling papers at AEJ:Policy again, I want to encourage authors of papers that identify partial equilibrium effects to consider (in a rigorous manner) how they relate to policy effects or general equilibrium effects.
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Daniel P. Moriarity @dpmoriarity.bsky.social · 04/01/2025
"A study of federally funded research projects in the United States estimated that principal investigators spend on average about 45% of their time on administrative activities related to applying for and managing projects rather than conducting active research" www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...
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Maarten van Smeden @maartenvsmeden.bsky.social · 28/12/2024
Academics, let's make 2025 the year where we are more explicit and honest about our causal aims and interpretations Using, for instance, the terms "risk factor" or "associated with a decrease in" is not a clever way to avoid the issue
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Drew Bailey @drewhalbailey.bsky.social · 22/12/2024
Overpromising on results to get a program running is ubiquitous but backfires in the long run. Figuring out how to best communicate the need for good programs and evaluations despite unrealistic views of what a worthwhile program is likely to accomplish is an important area for further work.
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Stephen Wild @stephenjwild.bsky.social · 17/12/2024
A few papers I think worth reading. Mostly open access. Causal inference is hard: www.nature.com/articles/s41...
nature.com
Causal inference on human behaviour - Nature Human Behaviour
In this Review, Drew Bailey et al. present an accessible, non-technical overview of key challenges for causal inference in studies of human behaviour as well as methodological solutions to these chall...
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Kou Murayama @koumurayama.bsky.social · 16/12/2024
Please repost! We are hiring an assistant professor (W1) of Educational Psychology. We are looking forward to working with you!! uni-tuebingen.de/en/faculties...
uni-tuebingen.de
Assistant professorship (W1) of Education Sciences and Psychology
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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 16/12/2024
Policymakers adjust their views of policy effectiveness when an experiment shows disappointing results but also show reduced demand for experiments. Also in response, the public supports experiments but reduces trust in the implementing institutions www.nber.org/papers/w33239
nber.org
Toward an Understanding of the Political Economy of Using Field Experiments in Policymaking
Founded in 1920, the NBER is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting economic research and to disseminating research findings among academics, public policy makers, an...
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Item Response Warehouse @itemrespwarehouse.bsky.social · 10/12/2024
Do you need educational and psychological item response data to do your research? The IRW has 600 item response datasets (more coming!), distributed in a standardized format and ready for analysis.
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Drew Bailey @drewhalbailey.bsky.social · 10/12/2024
Our new review, with Tyler Watts, Emma Hart, and April Yu, summarizing some work in the past few years on "Learning about Development from Interventions" is published open access at Annual Review of Developmental Psychology. Comments, questions, insults welcome. www.annualreviews.org/content/jour...
annualreviews.org
Learning About Development from Interventions | Annual Reviews
In this review, we argue that the role of causally informative evaluations of interventions within developmental psychology should be elevated. Causally informative research on the effects of interven...
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Drew Bailey @drewhalbailey.bsky.social · 01/12/2024
Good writing advice from an excellent academic writer.
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Julia M. Rohrer @dingdingpeng.the100.ci · 16/11/2024
Adam writes about a recent study on the effects of HEPA filters on acute respiratory infections:
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Kou Murayama @koumurayama.bsky.social · 28/10/2024
I had a rough year, super busy with my private matter. Now I'm slowly back. It seems many moved here and it's my first post! We published a new paper on cross-lagged panel models and causal inference in Psych. Methods (OA). We give guidance for applied researchers. psycnet.apa.org/fulltext/202...
psycnet.apa.org
APA PsycNet
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Nora Newcombe @noranewcombe.bsky.social · 22/10/2024
Here’s a share link for my overview of the effects of environment on three types of spatial thinking using the experience expectant vs dependent lens. Lots of gaps remain! nam10.safelinks.protection.outlook.com?url=https%3A...
nam10.safelinks.protection.outlook.com
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Crystal Steltenpohl @cnsyoung.com · 24/07/2024
Are you an early career researcher who is dedicated to advancing open scholarship principles? Consider applying to be on the @cos.io board of directors to help us continue to keep our mission aligned with the needs of the community! Scholars from all backgrounds welcome to apply! 🧪
cos.io
Call for Early Career Researcher to Join the Center for Open Science Board of Directors
COS and its Board of Directors seek an ECR to join the Board for a 3-year term (renewable for one additional 3-year term). This individual would help COS identify and navigate opportunities to support...
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