iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Stefan Schubert @stefanschubert.bsky.social · 08/09/2026

Many people are optimistic about the potential for further progress in psychology, but I think they underestimate the obstacles, as well as how much of the low-hanging fruit has already been picked. www.update.news/p/the-limits...

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Stefan Schubert @stefanschubert.bsky.social · 28/08/2026

Why are our explanations of other people’s actions often so cynical? In today's post I lay out a series of causes and argue that this cynical bias is akin to our neglect of human agency. www.update.news/p/the-roots-...

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Stefan Schubert @stefanschubert.bsky.social · 13/08/2026

Substantial existential risk is more likely to be concentrated in one or two outliers than in several unrelated threats.

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Stefan Schubert @stefanschubert.bsky.social · 06/08/2026

Existential risk estimates depend on both the difficulty of the problem (what it'd take to prevent disaster) and our likely response, but the first factor gets most attention. Here I argue that's a mistake. www.update.news/p/the-respon...

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Stefan Schubert @stefanschubert.bsky.social · 31/07/2026

Dan Williams recently argued that pessimism about human motivation – especially about overcoming selfishness – is more warranted than epistemic pessimism. I agree, and here discuss the psychological and evolutionary roots of this asymmetry. www.update.news/p/why-were-e...

update.news

Why we’re epistemically flexible but stubbornly self-regarding

A deep-rooted psychological asymmetry

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Stefan Schubert @stefanschubert.bsky.social · 30/07/2026

My friends and I made this path thirty years ago by larping in the ditch. I'm glad to see it has survived.

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Stefan Schubert @stefanschubert.bsky.social · 29/07/2026

Genuinely interesting and important take

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Reposted by Stefan Schubert

Julia M. Rohrer @dingdingpeng.the100.ci · 28/07/2026

I wrote a post about cultural differences between psychology and economics -- things were I specifically believe econ is doing better. Surprisingly, I still stand by those points 8 years later. Somebody from econ should write a counterpart though about things that psychology does better 🤭

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Stefan Schubert @stefanschubert.bsky.social · 28/07/2026

Danish paper finds big economic gains from GLP-1 drugs. “We find that GLP-1 treatment reduces long-term sickness leave by 17.3%. We estimate total fiscal benefits of GLP-1 initiation of approximately 1.3–1.5% of annual labor income per employed individual.” www.nber.org/papers/w35475

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Stefan Schubert @stefanschubert.bsky.social · 28/07/2026

The UK used to be much more unequal than Sweden, but the Gini coefficients have almost converged. Perceptions are lagging.

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Stefan Schubert @stefanschubert.bsky.social · 17/06/2026

I gave a talk on the case for epistemic discipline at EAGx Nordics. When you encounter people who don't even try to give arguments, it's better to calmly explain that this is the case than to respond sarcastically or try to reinterpret them charitably. www.youtube.com/watch?v=mTml...

youtube.com

The Case for Epistemic Discipline | Stefan Schubert | EAGxNordics 2026

YouTube video by Effective Altruism

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Reposted by Stefan Schubert

koenfucius @koenfucius.bsky.social · 23/05/2026

“We’re good at solving problems, but not as good at seeing how other people solve theirs” @stefanschubert.bsky.social explores the Rationality Gap. It may be more than merely “not seeing” others’ capability, eg a WYSIATI-like, ignorance-flavoured underestimation: buff.ly/7qE6E7i

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Stefan Schubert @stefanschubert.bsky.social · 20/05/2026

We're often much more rational as actors than as outside observers of other people's actions. It distorts our worldview, making us think we sleepwalk into disasters and bad outcomes. www.update.news/p/the-ration...

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Stefan Schubert @stefanschubert.bsky.social · 13/05/2026

Shootings have fallen more than 2/3 in Sweden the last three years

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Stefan Schubert @stefanschubert.bsky.social · 08/05/2026

You can’t dismiss AI revenue growth as hype the way you might dismiss investments or high valuations. www.update.news/p/the-tables...

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Reposted by Stefan Schubert

Stefan Schubert @stefanschubert.bsky.social · 07/05/2026

AI sceptics have long dismissed short or medium timelines as speculation with no basis in data. But recent revenue growth undercuts this argument. It's now the AI sceptics who have to show that current trends will break. www.update.news/p/the-tables...

update.news

The tables have turned on AI sceptics

Epistemic conservatism no longer favours long timelines

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Stefan Schubert @stefanschubert.bsky.social · 07/05/2026

update.news

The tables have turned on AI sceptics

Epistemic conservatism no longer favours long timelines

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Stefan Schubert @stefanschubert.bsky.social · 24/04/2026

People love sharing the OkCupid chart where women find most men unattractive, and the rumour that one in ten children has a different father than they think. But some stories are too juicy to be true. www.update.news/p/women-dont...

update.news

Women don’t think 80 percent of men are below average, and the share of children with a secret dad is far below 10 percent

Juicy stories are often false

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Reposted by Stefan Schubert

Julia M. Rohrer @dingdingpeng.the100.ci · 23/04/2026

Enjoyed the linked post by Alex Imas: "If the model is right, the durable jobs of the future won’t be about monitoring AI systems or prompt engineering. ... . The durable jobs will be in the relational sector, where the human element is the product itself." aleximas.substack.com/p/what-will-...

aleximas.substack.com

What will be scarce?

The economics of structural change and the post-commodity future of work

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Reposted by Stefan Schubert

Stefan Schubert @stefanschubert.bsky.social · 22/04/2026

AI propaganda has so far not been as effective as people feared a few years ago www.update.news/p/ai-economi...

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Stefan Schubert @stefanschubert.bsky.social · 22/04/2026

AI propaganda has so far not been as effective as people feared a few years ago www.update.news/p/ai-economi...

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Stefan Schubert @stefanschubert.bsky.social · 22/04/2026

There's been another good debate among economists about the impact of AI on the labour market, this time centred on a nice essay by Alex Imas. But I think some economists still underestimate how weird the world of advanced AI is going to be. www.update.news/p/ai-economi...

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Stefan Schubert @stefanschubert.bsky.social · 20/04/2026

Sweden and German intelligence agencies report that Russian official economic data is fake www.ft.com/content/04a9...

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Reposted by Stefan Schubert

Julia M. Rohrer @dingdingpeng.the100.ci · 20/04/2026

Good news everyone, at least it's a draw!

Screenshot from the Cognition paper "A cognitive fallacy in a fish? Glass catfish, like humans, make sub-optimal choices in the Monty Hall dilemma" by Christian Agrillo and Alessandra Pecunioso

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Stefan Schubert @stefanschubert.bsky.social · 20/04/2026

When ChatGPT was launched, almost all users were men – but now, women are the majority www.update.news/p/will-ai-dr...

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Stefan Schubert @stefanschubert.bsky.social · 17/04/2026

Anthropic just passed $1 trillion in valuation on Ventuals. OpenAI still has the most users but have fallen behind in terms of valuation. www.update.news/p/nature-stu...

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Stefan Schubert @stefanschubert.bsky.social · 15/04/2026

The debate over AI and jobs is too nearsighted, and should consider where we're eventually heading. AI leaders talking about widespread automation isn't a mere marketing strategy. www.update.news/p/growth-won...

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Stefan Schubert @stefanschubert.bsky.social · 14/04/2026

The list of Swiss constitutional amendments triggered by citizen-initiated referendums is strikingly populist. www.update.news/p/american-c...

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Stefan Schubert @stefanschubert.bsky.social · 12/04/2026

Incredible turnout in Hungary, especially in Magyar-voting Budapest

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Stefan Schubert @stefanschubert.bsky.social · 12/04/2026

Magyar now 80% likely to replace Orban as PM of Hungary according to Polymarket

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Stefan Schubert @stefanschubert.bsky.social · 10/04/2026

Anthropic overtakes OpenAI on Ventuals, a (small) market for private company valuations

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Reposted by Stefan Schubert

Saloni @scientificdiscovery.dev · 09/04/2026

Clinical trials today are highly bureaucratic, expensive, and time-consuming. Most trials fail to recruit enough participants to answer their questions at all. This great post by Adam Kroetsch explains how things got this way. www.clinicaltrialsabundance.blog/p/clinical-t...

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Stefan Schubert @stefanschubert.bsky.social · 09/04/2026

Might AI gradually become less politically salient, like the internet? I don’t think so, since unlike the internet, AI will change drastically with time. www.update.news/p/driverless...

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Stefan Schubert @stefanschubert.bsky.social · 08/04/2026

I think revenue extrapolation may be a bit underrated as a method for predicting transformative impact from AI. While it certainly has its issues, I think it comes with fewer contentious assumptions than some rival methods. Recent revenue growth speaks against very long timelines.

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Reposted by Stefan Schubert

Stefan Schubert @stefanschubert.bsky.social · 07/04/2026

Why is public discourse so much more AGI-pilled in the US than in Europe? I discuss five reasons: 1. Higher AI adoption rates 2. The leading labs are in the US 3. Cultural openness to speculation 4. A thinner safety net 5. A larger public discourse www.update.news/p/why-does-t...

update.news

Why does the US take AGI more seriously than Europe?

Plus: American cities see fewer births, most YC founders are under 25, and more

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Stefan Schubert @stefanschubert.bsky.social · 07/04/2026

update.news

Why does the US take AGI more seriously than Europe?

Plus: American cities see fewer births, most YC founders are under 25, and more

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Stefan Schubert @stefanschubert.bsky.social · 05/04/2026

The British government tries to get Anthropic to expand in the UK www.ft.com/content/6bfd...

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Stefan Schubert @stefanschubert.bsky.social · 02/04/2026

Philosophers cite more empirical sources than they used to www.update.news/i/192954532/...

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Stefan Schubert @stefanschubert.bsky.social · 01/04/2026

The reactions to this does not reflect well on this site. Some people need to update fast.

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Reposted by Stefan Schubert

Stefan Schubert @stefanschubert.bsky.social · 31/03/2026

There's been a debate on how “intelligent” AIs could become, but however you define that concept, they could hugely outmatch us at manipulating the world. www.update.news/p/how-smart-...

update.news

How smart can AI become?

Plus: the US leads Europe in AI adoption, EV batteries have become 99 percent cheaper, and more

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Stefan Schubert @stefanschubert.bsky.social · 31/03/2026

There's been a debate on how “intelligent” AIs could become, but however you define that concept, they could hugely outmatch us at manipulating the world. www.update.news/p/how-smart-...

update.news

How smart can AI become?

Plus: the US leads Europe in AI adoption, EV batteries have become 99 percent cheaper, and more

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Reposted by Stefan Schubert

Stefan Schubert @stefanschubert.bsky.social · 27/03/2026

The AI safety community would benefit from more epistemic modesty. www.update.news/p/how-to-dis...

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Stefan Schubert @stefanschubert.bsky.social · 28/03/2026

While social media is polarising, evidence suggests AI may nudge people towards the centre. www.ft.com/content/3880...

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Stefan Schubert @stefanschubert.bsky.social · 27/03/2026

The AI safety community would benefit from more epistemic modesty. www.update.news/p/how-to-dis...

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Stefan Schubert @stefanschubert.bsky.social · 25/03/2026

Some argue that Trump helps the European left – a "reverse Midas" effect – but this is overstated. His demands for Greenland didn't stop the Danish right from making gains in yesterday's election. www.update.news/p/right-wing...

update.news

Right-wing parties avoid Trump effect in Danish election

Plus: delayed homebuying in the US, gender polarization, and more

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Stefan Schubert @stefanschubert.bsky.social · 24/03/2026

Canadian growth has fallen behind the US and the rest of the OECD in the last decade. Part of the problem is brain drain to the US: a Bank of Canada working paper estimates that 40% of the most skilled workers may have emigrated. www.update.news/p/trump-appr...

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Stefan Schubert @stefanschubert.bsky.social · 24/03/2026

Chinese people used to be much shorter than Americans, but thanks to better nutrition, this has changed. Chinese girls are now taller than American girls, and Chinese boys are almost as tall as American boys. But the gap with young Dutch people remains large. www.update.news/p/trump-appr...

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