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Alan Wager

@dralanwager.bsky.social
5.2K followers 767 following 369 posts
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Alan Wager @dralanwager.bsky.social · 12h
The most important public opinion analysis I've seen of the speech and the road ahead.
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Alan Wager @dralanwager.bsky.social · 13h
All well and good. But if I was Number 10 then (no offence folks!!) I wouldn't put much weight behind MRP push polling or frankly stupid poll questions about the Euro. Suggestion: commission some serious work the political framing and real-world trade-offs. www.theguardian.com/politics/202...
theguardian.com
No 10 gathering evidence on public support for UK rejoining EU
Senior Downing Street officials reach out to thinktanks and pollsters as they look to test backing for reversing Brexit
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UCL Constitution Unit @conunitucl.bsky.social · 18h
How should a national commission on electoral reform be designed? On Tuesday, the Prime Minister announced a national commission on electoral reform. @alanrenwick.bsky.social argues that such a body should have three key features, and emphasises the care that should be taken. Read it 👇️
blogs.ucl.ac.uk
How should a national commission on electoral reform be designed?
On Tuesday, the Prime Minister announced a national commission on electoral reform. In this article originally published in the Conversation UK, Alan Renwick explains that such a body should secure public involvement, not aim for a particular result and listen to the experts. He also emphasises that any change to the electoral system should be carried out with the greatest possible care.
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Lisa O’Carroll @lisaocarroll.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Stella Creasy welcomes Andy Burnham's promise to set out all the options for a new relationship with the EU - from blurring Keir Starmer's red lines to maybe even putting rejoin on the manifesto. www.instagram.com/p/Dd3-JkqsNMq/
instagram.com
stellacreasy on Instagram: "Today the Prime Minister Andy Burnham showed he understands the damage Brexit has done and will lead this country back towards a fu…"
Today the Prime Minister Andy Burnham showed he understands the damage Brexit has done and will lead this country back towards a future with Europe. There’s never been a more important time to join the @labourmovementforeurope to be part of shaping what comes next. Follow their account for details of how to do so.View all comments
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Jonathan Portes @jdportes.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
"In order to deliver the PM's promise to save social care we need a permanent class of indentured migrant workers without labour rights".
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Giles Wilkes @gilesyb.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
I had a glance at today's Public Finance figures and was less alarmed than the BBC seemed to think I should be gileswilkes.substack.com/p/very-short...
gileswilkes.substack.com
very short one on what seems reassuring in the growth figures
where the growth really counts
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Chris Clarke @warringfictions.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
1/ Why did things implode so dismally for Keir Starmer’s govt? I worked for Labour in the years running up to GE 2024 and have since puzzled over this question. Last week I published two pieces, asking ‘what we wrong’. I added a third, expanding on economic fairness – a key theme from the first two.
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James Austin @jamesdaustin.bsky.social · 13/09/2026
One of the really odd things here is that we know from @steveakehurst.bsky.social work that attacks on corruption, donations and crypto links aee the most effective against Farage. And here they are, in essence, leaning into them - after weeks of similar stories which caused huge damage.
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Alan Wager @dralanwager.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
Donations from one crypto billionaire to Reform: £36m Total donations from Britain's entire trade union movement over the last five years, to the Labour Party: £33.9m A disaster. Foreseeable (and those on the left that worked to stop a donations cap should be ashamed). But disastrous nonetheless.
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Alan Wager @dralanwager.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
This is the announcement that caused a 48 hour moral panic on the Fascist App, whose algorithm is continuing (at pace) to rot the brains of many people in Westminster.
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Josiah Mortimer @josiahmortimer.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
Reform UK has been removed from the Alliance for Proportional Representation. It comes after a Q&A at conference where Reform MP Danny Kruger said: “On PR there is a significant danger [Lab.] will try to introduce it...Reform’s position is we support First Past the Post.” Reform's 2024 manifesto:
Proportional Representation Voting for the
House of Commons
Large numbers of voters have no representation
in parliament and new parties are shut out of the
political system. Voter turnout could be some 10%
higher with PR. A referendum is needed.
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Mic Wright @brokenbottleboy.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
A detail missing from The Times story… the woman who took the photo shared it to a Facebook group called ‘South east patriots’.
Facebook post showing the photo of three white women on a train with a group of black-clad, masked men being shared to a group called ‘South east patriots’
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Karl Pike @karlpike.bsky.social · 17/08/2026
I have written a short essay for the IPPR called A Liberalism of Public Things: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...
onlinelibrary.wiley.com
A Liberalism of Public Things
The social democratic ideological tradition - including the liberalism within it - should be described more accurately and defended. Liberalism within social democracy is the liberalism of public thi...
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Alan Wager @dralanwager.bsky.social · 11/08/2026
Hang on, the number of fast food restaurants on UK high streets has increased by 500% since 2015? Hmm.. not sure I’m buying that!
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Chris Prosser @caprosser.com · 05/08/2026
Using ~8.5k election-poll-party observations from 372 elections in 32 countries, we find a persistent partisan asymmetry: polls tend to overestimate the left relative to the right. On average across elections, polls the month before an election overstated the left by about 1.4 points
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Josh Sternberg @joshsternberg.com · 03/08/2026
There are 7 PR people for every journalist in the US. www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
chart showing 280k pr specialists to 40k 'news analysts, reporters, and journalists'
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Tim Bale @timbale.bsky.social · 03/08/2026
Judging from the reaction to Farage's 'policy' announcement today from both Labour and the Tories, it may be that his capacity to do the below is waning. Not sure about Hanson, mind.
Pic of abstract of academic article co-authored by me:  Countries with populist radical right governments are the exception rather thanthe rule. This paper uses the Australian case of Pauline Hanson’s One Nation(PHON) and the UK case of the UK Independence Party (UKIP) – and itseffective successor, the Brexit Party – to help explain a puzzle: how dopopulist radical right parties in the absence of any likely route to winningoffice or even holding legislative influence achieve policy payoffs? Tracingthe political factors that have driven policy influence in these two casesreveals that an entrepreneurial leader with agenda-setting influence can havepolicy impact, despite disadvantageous structural conditions, through thefollowing: leveraging electoral influence over both social democratic andmainstream right parties; gaining credibility through sub-national elections;and achieving (or threatening to achieve) defections from centre-right parties.
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David Klemperer @dmk1793.bsky.social · 27/07/2026
Great write-up here of some really encouraging news re: the growing consenus in favour of compulsory voting
thetimes.com
Compulsory voting on the table as Burnham ponders electoral reform
Proposals seen by the prime minister’s advisers suggest a £10 fine for those who do not cast a ballot, with a ‘none of the above’ option to be included
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Stephen Bush @stephenkb.bsky.social · 27/07/2026
Some thoughts on Andy Burnham's government overhaul: the good (creating an Office of the PM), the bad (RIP DSIT), the mixed (not killing off the Cabinet Office) and the 'you gave Lisa Nandy a BIGGER job?'
ft.com
The good, the bad and the mixed of Andy Burnham’s government overhaul
PM should have gone further in scrapping Cabinet Office, while handing Lisa Nandy an expanded brief is a gamble
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Nick Barlow @nickbwalking.bsky.social · 25/07/2026
There's surely a non-zero chance that Reform become the Ship of Theseus Party. They end up with five or more MPs, none of whom are the five they got elected at the 2024 GE.
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Adam Schwarz @adamjschwarz.bsky.social · 24/07/2026
When the story of why humanity didn't stop climate change is written, it will feature front pages like this. Even as the skies blacken with climate change-induced wildfires, right wing media continue their relentless crusade against measures to tackle it.
The Times: Net zero risks blackouts. Below a photo of French wildfires.
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Ian Dunt @iandunt.bsky.social · 23/07/2026
It's funny how no-one ever asks where the money is coming from when you announce a cut in immigration.
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Alan Wager @dralanwager.bsky.social · 23/07/2026
So the average British punter doesn’t have a penchant for a fruity Lost Mary’s, and isn’t interested in charity shop bargain hunting or Maccas double cheeseburgers. And loves going to the bank rather than using an app on their phone. I have never felt more out of touch.
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Will Jennings📉🗳️ @drjennings.bsky.social · 22/07/2026
I bet there’s been lots of reporting of this.
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Alan Wager @dralanwager.bsky.social · 20/07/2026
'The party needs to become more comfortable with everyday liberalism... liberalism is not only a foundational part of Labour’s history, it’s also crucial for electoral signalling in the twenty-first century.' Spot on from @colmpm.bsky.social
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Sunder Katwala (sundersays) @sundersays.bsky.social · 18/07/2026
One day, somebody in government will notice what the net migration level is hesding to. The fiscal forecast (£24 billion) was based on average net 235k to 2026-29 but that is at least 100k too high, costing £13 billion, or double that if want to reduce immigration visas further.
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Duncan Hames @duncanhames.bsky.social · 13/07/2026
With MPs set to vote tomorrow to control money in politcs, @guardianheather.bsky.social sums-up the case: "it is wrong in principle, and dangerous in practice, for a new class of mega-donors to bankroll British politics. Donations should be capped; and if Starmer does not act, his successor must."
theguardian.com
UK must cap political donations to stop the rich buying influence | Heather Stewart
If Keir Starmer won’t act then his successor should – by restricting the power of a small group of mega-donors
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Alan Wager @dralanwager.bsky.social · 10/07/2026
Count Binface alone can‘t clean up British politics. MPs now have that chance, and they must seize it | Stella Creasy www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
theguardian.com
Count Binface alone can‘t clean up British politics. MPs now have that chance, and they must seize it | Stella Creasy
Amid the allegations about dark money and funding, I have a solution: limit all single donations in a year – from any individual – to £100,000, says MP Stella Creasy
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Good Law Project @goodlawproject.org · 09/07/2026
To stop wealthy donors from influencing politics, Stella Creasy MP has proposed a vital amendment to the Representation of the People Bill to place a strict £100k cap on all individual donations. Use our quick tool to email your MP 👇 goodlaw.social/o0eb
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Good Law Project @goodlawproject.org · 08/07/2026
A tide of huge donations has flooded into politics, as billionaires try to game the system in their favour. But Stella Creasy is proposing a groundbreaking £100,000 cap on political donations that could level the political playing field Tell your MP to back the cap 👇 goodlaw.social/c244d0
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Political Quarterly @politicalquarterly.bsky.social · 26/06/2026
Our ten-year Brexit retrospective with James Hampshire, Alan Wager, David Cutts @robfordmancs.bsky.social Matthew Goodwin @robertsaunders.bsky.social Barry Colfer, Patrick Diamond @albertpweale.bsky.social Jonathan Sumption, Michael Keating and many more politicalquarterly.org.uk/collections/...
politicalquarterly.org.uk
Brexit at Ten: A Retrospective
Ten years after the Brexit referendum, The Political Quarterly marks this significant anniversary with a virtual issue bringing together a selection of articles that have analysed the origins, impact ...
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Alan Wager @dralanwager.bsky.social · 08/07/2026
The Monster Raving Loony Party must do the honourable thing and give Ct Binface a clear run vs Mr Farage. Electoral pact now!
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Jessica Elgot @jessicaelgot.bsky.social · 07/07/2026
EXC - The £5m gift to Nigel Farage by a cryptocurrency billionaire was reported to the National Crime Agency by bankers who were concerned it may have been laundered money, the Guardian can reveal. www.theguardian.com/politics/202...
theguardian.com
Revealed: Farage’s £5m gift reported to UK crime agency over money laundering concerns
Exclusive: Latest Guardian revelation about gift from cryptocurrency tycoon comes as Reform UK leader forces byelection
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Paula Surridge @psurridge.bsky.social · 30/06/2026
There is an irony here that many will read the changing polls and potential recovery as being about Burnham defeating Reform rather than Reform self-destructing at the same time as Labour voters returned from the Greens.
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Jay Rayner @jayrayner1.bsky.social · 26/06/2026
This is quite the story: a donation to the Green Party by its leader Zack Polanski was inadmissible because he was not on the electoral roll and was therefore deemed to be an ’unlawful donor’. www.ft.com/content/34ad... Green Party forced to return Zack Polanski’s unlawful donation
ft.com
Green Party forced to return Zack Polanski’s unlawful donation
Impermissible gift is first of its kind by a UK party leader and comes after scrutiny of his living arrangements
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Jonathan Portes @jdportes.bsky.social · 25/06/2026
Leaving aside the political/personal/personnel drama, it should be absolutely clear to Burnham/his team that these proposals have disintegrated on contact with reality. Much better to ditch them or at least have another round of consultation on more realistic/sensible options.
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Andrew Sissons @acjsissons.bsky.social · 25/06/2026
If I were in government I'd be scoping an announcement to have solar, batteries and air conditioning (heating and cooling) in every school and hospital by 2030
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Stephen Bush @stephenkb.bsky.social · 23/06/2026
I am convinced that the original cause of 'the BBC's politics blogs are written in this stupid style' is that the BBC has internalised 'right for someone with a reading age of five' as 'write floridly, but for a moron'.
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Jonathan Portes @jdportes.bsky.social · 22/06/2026
I've had 2 journalists today asking if Miliband as Chancellor would be a "Liz Truss moment" and find it difficult not to just respond "are you on crack?".
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Alan Wager @dralanwager.bsky.social · 20/06/2026
Maybe the better way of putting it would have been ‘we need to get over this thing of being in hoc to bad faith, Guido mob lobby journalists at Bloomberg’
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John Springford @johnspringford.bsky.social · 18/06/2026
New research from me and @antonspisak.bsky.social – we identify how much Brexit has reduced goods and services trade with the EU, and what’s responsible: leaving the customs union or the single market? Answers: large hit to trade, mostly due to single market exit 🧵 www.cer.eu/insights/cos...
cer.eu
The cost of Brexit, ten years on: The impact of leaving the customs union and single market on UK trade
New CER modelling exercise shows that Brexit has substantially reduced the UK’s trade with the EU.
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Alan Wager @dralanwager.bsky.social · 17/06/2026
Good half, two weird Croatia goals not important. Suspect we’ll accelerate away in second.
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Stephen Bush @stephenkb.bsky.social · 16/06/2026
When we look for authenticity, I think what we’re really doing is trying to “place” someone as a type of guy we know from life or fiction, and for a politician or another public to perform that stereotype for us.
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Sunder Katwala (sundersays) @sundersays.bsky.social · 16/06/2026
I continue to be struck by how few Cabinet ministers and ex-ministers the impacts + implications of this complex 8-tier settlement policy - esp the sheer scale of Commonwealth voters who risk losing legal status in 2028. Is it remigration by stealth - or by mistake? ukandeu.ac.uk/unsettled-st...
ukandeu.ac.uk
Unsettled status: the policy and politics of indefinite leave to remain - UK in a changing Europe
Sunder Katwala looks at the government's proposed reforms to the settlement rules in the UK as part of its immigration overhaul and asks whether they could meet the fairness challenge.
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Paula Surridge @psurridge.bsky.social · 16/06/2026
Further evidence - the chances of the next PM not being on very low net favourability before they even take office is small
Chart from You gov showing all the political figures/leaders of parties have net negative favourability
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Alan Wager @dralanwager.bsky.social · 11/06/2026
Some language that Andy Burnham might want to notice, pick up and use pretty sharpish from the Police Federation in NI. www.policefed-ni.org.uk/media-centre...
policefed-ni.org.uk
Federation condemns ‘violent fascist law-breakers’ who assault officers
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Dan Davies @dsquareddigest.bsky.social · 10/06/2026
ngl, if there was a contract on polymarket, my money would still be on "they're gonna hesitate"
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Alex Thomas @alexgathomas.bsky.social · 10/06/2026
Policy changes create winners and losers It’s a truism that losers complain more than winners are grateful But we’re on a ludicrous path if those who lose out from policy decisions demand and then get compensation That’s a recipe for nothing being decided ever
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