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Anton Spisak

@antonspisak.bsky.social
8.4K followers 575 following 573 posts

Senior research fellow, Centre for European Reform. Likes good coffee, long runs, and the Paris Review.

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Reposted by Anton Spisak
John Springford @johnspringford.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
European Commission officials arguing that a customs union is the best way for the UK to avoid 'Made in Europe' barriers. But the issue seems to be Chinese investment in UK plants, not rerouted Chinese imports. www.ft.com/content/5453...
ft.com
EU urges UK to raise tariffs on Chinese cars to avoid ‘made in Europe’ barriers
London has lobbied intensely to secure equal treatment for British products but continues to rule out a customs union
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James Green @james-r-green.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
Competitiveness, sovereignty, innovation. I reckon we'll hear these words just a few times during Thursday's SOTEU. But how does Europe achieve them? Public equity markets can play an important role - funding European bets on new technologies and scale. Yet Europe is falling behind. 1/8 🧵
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CITP @thecitp.bsky.social · 30/06/2026
Services has also taken a hit with exports to the EU being 7% lower and imports 19% down. The worst affected sectors were travel (down 39%), transport (down 21%) & financial services (down 24%). What do you think has driven these changes & what could reverse the trend? #TradeFactOfTheMonth #Brexit
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Centre for European Reform @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social · 29/06/2026
“The costs of leaving the EU have been cumulative.” @johnspringford.bsky.social and @antonspisak.bsky.social write on the economic costs of #Brexit, as part of the @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social’s new essay collection marking 10 years since the Brexit referendum. buff.ly/i9gEX8a
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Anton Spisak @antonspisak.bsky.social · 26/06/2026
It's been a busy Brexit week, but one issue has received much less coverage than I'd expected: how Brexit has changed Northern Ireland, and what it means for the debate about Irish reunification. Join us next week for a great event with @otoolematthew.bsky.social and @adampayne26.bsky.social.
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Anton Spisak @antonspisak.bsky.social · 23/06/2026
Ten years on from the Brexit referendum, we've published a collection of wonderful essays @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social, reflecting on the past decade, discussing where UK-EU relations stand today, and looking at what comes next. Some of the highlights: www.cer.eu/ten-years-af...
cer.eu
Ten years after the Brexit referendum
A new CER essay collection reflects on what the past decade has meant for the UK, the EU, and the future of UK-EU relations.
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Anton Spisak @antonspisak.bsky.social · 23/06/2026
Ten years on from the Brexit referendum, we've published a collection of wonderful essays @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social, reflecting on the past decade, discussing where UK-EU relations stand today, and looking at what comes next. Some of the highlights: www.cer.eu/ten-years-af...
cer.eu
Ten years after the Brexit referendum
A new CER essay collection reflects on what the past decade has meant for the UK, the EU, and the future of UK-EU relations.
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Anton Spisak @antonspisak.bsky.social · 19/06/2026
More detail on the impacts of Brexit on different sectors of the British economy — from our latest study with @johnspringford.bsky.social:
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Martin Sandbu @martinsandbu.ft.com · 19/06/2026
Striking fact about the Makerfield election: left-right divide has barely budged in the last three GEs (7 years). Lab+LD+Green have gained 53-56 per cent of the votes each time; Con+Ref+Restore 43-47. All the action has been voter movements within each tribe. (Table from @peterkellner.bsky.social)
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Heather Stewart @guardianheather.bsky.social · 18/06/2026
Very interesting new Brexit research here from @johnspringford.bsky.social and @antonspisak.bsky.social which a) shows bigger effects on services exports than previously thought and b) disaggregates the impact of leaving single market + customs union: www.theguardian.com/politics/202...
theguardian.com
Rejoining customs union would not fix damage caused by Brexit, research finds
Exclusive: Economists find Brexit caused 12% depression in UK exports, most of which is due to leaving single market
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Anton Spisak @antonspisak.bsky.social · 18/06/2026
New research out today with @johnspringford.bsky.social. Ten years after the referendum, we estimated the costs of Brexit to UK trade – and identified how much of the damage comes from leaving the single market versus the customs union. Not an easy exercise, but we’ve had some striking results 👇
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John Springford @johnspringford.bsky.social · 15/06/2026
@jdportes.bsky.social and I have updated our estimates of the impact of Brexit and the new migration regime on immigration, now that we have new data for 2025. 1
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Anton Spisak @antonspisak.bsky.social · 27/05/2026
I’m surprised to see this from YouGov. It’s a perfect example of how not to ask a polling question. “Clean energy” can be – and in most instances is – “cheaper energy”.
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Anton Spisak @antonspisak.bsky.social · 27/05/2026
It's the final week to apply for a number of fantastic roles we have @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social:
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Anton Spisak @antonspisak.bsky.social · 20/05/2026
An important paper laying out the scale of China's challenge to Germany's – and Europe's – export-led economic model. We should debate how best to respond, but it's a mistake to think we can return to the world of yesterday. Doing nothing is also a policy choice.
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Sander Tordoir @sandertordoir.bsky.social · 20/05/2026
Germany is the epicentre of the China Shock 2.0 reverberating in global markets In a new joint paper, CFR's Brad Setser and I show the shock is a key driver of Germany’s economic malaise. And it's accelerating Berlin needs to stop admiring the problem, and join efforts to fight back 1/many
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Anton Spisak @antonspisak.bsky.social · 19/05/2026
Policy jobs! We have several excellent – and rare – openings at @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social in London and Brussels. 1. Senior research fellow in European energy economics and climate policy, based in Brussels Closing date: Friday 29 May www.cer.eu/job/senior-r...
cer.eu
Senior research fellow – energy and climate economics
The CER is looking for a senior energy and climate economics fellow to join its research team in Brussels.
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Anton Spisak @antonspisak.bsky.social · 09/05/2026
Ten years too late, some commentators are realising the Brexit referendum wasn’t really about Europe, but about the dissatisfaction of a large swathe of voters with the state of the country and “the system”. Who knew. The costliest populist experiment of our times. www.thetimes.com/comment/colu...
thetimes.com
Not a Reform tsunami but a political new wave
These elections show that UK politics is wide open, but can any party bring the change demanded since Brexit?
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Anton Spisak @antonspisak.bsky.social · 06/05/2026
Is the Turnberry deal unravelling? I sat down with @samuelmarclowe.bsky.social in our podcast to talk about what's going wrong in transatlantic trade and what might come next. Including a slightly nerdy discussion about steel and critical minerals. Give it a listen.
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Anton Spisak @antonspisak.bsky.social · 06/05/2026
Is the Turnberry deal unravelling? I sat down with @samuelmarclowe.bsky.social in our podcast to talk about what's going wrong in transatlantic trade and what might come next. Including a slightly nerdy discussion about steel and critical minerals. Give it a listen.
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Anton Spisak @antonspisak.bsky.social · 04/05/2026
Because the “we buy more from them than they do from us” strategy worked so well during the Brexit negotiations. Thanks for reminding us, Mr Davis.
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Anton Spisak @antonspisak.bsky.social · 03/05/2026
What a devastating piece in this weekend’s FT — a profile of a remarkable 25-years-old Ukrainian woman, Yana Zalevska, who is the commander of an all-women drone unit. And who is also waging a war on another front — in her own mind.
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Anton Spisak @antonspisak.bsky.social · 01/05/2026
You'd be forgiven for feeling confused. Last week there was a brief show of unity in DC. Today, the Turnberry deal doesn't seem to be worth the paper it was written on.
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Anton Spisak @antonspisak.bsky.social · 27/04/2026
The rewriting of history carries on. It was the 2016 Brexit referendum that has crowded out more important issues from British political life. The single biggest cost of Brexit is its opportunity cost: all the things that could’ve happened between 2016-24. But sure, let’s talk about “SW1 pathology”.
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Sander Tordoir @sandertordoir.bsky.social · 24/04/2026
Lots of attention again on Chinese investment in the EU. I think most miss the most important observation. Chinese FDI in the EU is tiny, a fraction of what it was 10 years ago. But EU's trade deficit with China is ballooning, up another 30% this year. The implications should be obvious. 1/
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Anton Spisak @antonspisak.bsky.social · 23/04/2026
Polanski’s foreign policy is as far removed from the earth as his economic policies. A populist par excellence, riding the wave of the anti-Labour/Starmer sentiment.
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Anton Spisak @antonspisak.bsky.social · 23/04/2026
It may turn out that one part of the British state doesn’t share information with another, and that nobody really has a complete view of any given issue. Key decisions are often made on a whim – a problem that surprises no one that has ever worked in UK government.
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Anton Spisak @antonspisak.bsky.social · 19/04/2026
Key polling showing different voter perception of the benefits between a) doing the incredibly politically and administratively tricky job of rejoining the single market and/or a customs union and b) rejoining the EU. The political push for Rejoin could happen sooner than most people expect.
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Anton Spisak @antonspisak.bsky.social · 19/04/2026
A real pleasure to join the BBC World Weekend programme early this morning, and to witness firsthand what a seriously impressive broadcaster Gary O’Donoghue is. We talked about the Middle East war, the energy shock, the Hungarian and Bulgarian elections, and other things.
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Anton Spisak @antonspisak.bsky.social · 14/04/2026
Really good analysis of Orbán’s downfall and Magyar’s victory for Hungary and the EU
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Steve Peers @stevepeers.bsky.social · 13/04/2026
Reminder that in addition to Russia/Ukraine issues, Orbán was also vetoing more sanctions against violent West Bank settlers www.eunews.it/en/2026/02/2...
eunews.it
Hungary blocks EU sanctions against violent Israeli settlers
Hungary, represented by Minister Péter Szijjártó, also blocked the 20th package of sanctions against Russia and withdrew its approval for the maxi-loan to Ukraine agreed by leaders in December.
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Anton Spisak @antonspisak.bsky.social · 12/04/2026
An election is coming up in Slovakia next year, and Fico is no doubt watching the results from Budapest nervously tonight. Orbán’s defeat could have a big mobilising effect on the Slovak democratic opposition forces to help push him out.
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Anton Spisak @antonspisak.bsky.social · 12/04/2026
Extraordinary numbers for Tisza. Now 136 seats, a supermajority of 3, at 53% of counted votes. An existential territory for Orbán if the opposition holds the margin. But will Orbán leave office without putting up one last fight?
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Anton Spisak @antonspisak.bsky.social · 12/04/2026
This is the demographics of electoral politics in all central European countries: older, less educated voters tend to favour strongman rule, overlook corruption and lean anti-West, while younger generations are overwhelmingly pro-EU, more liberal and committed to the rule of law and democracy.
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Anton Spisak @antonspisak.bsky.social · 12/04/2026
A must-follow for the Hungarian election – and its aftermath – is my colleague @zecsaky.bsky.social, who knows a great deal about Hungary’s electoral politics, among many other things.
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Anne Applebaum @anneapplebaum.wsocial.eu · 05/04/2026
Two weeks ago, the Hungarian opposition was bracing for a false flag operation, an "emergency" that would allow Viktor Orban to turn the tide or even cancel an election he is losing. Now it appears to have arrived
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Peter Ungphakorn @coppetainpu.bsky.social · 05/04/2026
One of the better summaries of the WTO's Yaoundé Ministerial Conference. “Members arrived with irreconcilable ideas about what the WTO is for and what reform should mean in a more hostile world.” But there was good news too … By @antonspisak.bsky.social www.cer.eu/insights/wto...
cer.eu
WTO reform after Yaoundé: What next for the multilateral trade order?
The failure of the WTO’s ‘reform ministerial’ deepens the strain on the global trade system. But it also points to a possible path for future co-operation among coalitions of the willing.
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Anton Spisak @antonspisak.bsky.social · 02/04/2026
A new piece from me on the WTO 'reform ministerial' in Cameroon, what it tells us about the future of the multilateral trade order, and why it isn't all bad news. www.cer.eu/insights/wto...
cer.eu
WTO reform after Yaoundé: What next for the multilateral trade order?
The failure of the WTO’s ‘reform ministerial’ deepens the strain on the global trade system. But it also points to a possible path for future co-operation among coalitions of the willing.
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Anton Spisak @antonspisak.bsky.social · 01/04/2026
Really good thread on the dynamics behind what is probably going to be a neck-to-neck election in Hungary (despite the polls currently favouring the opposition). An election with big implications for the EU and its ability to get things done in the years ahead.
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Anton Spisak @antonspisak.bsky.social · 01/04/2026
Quite possibly the best job in Europe’s think-tank world. CER is looking for its next director as the irreplaceable @cergrant.bsky.social steps down as director later this year.
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Anton Spisak @antonspisak.bsky.social · 30/03/2026
The future of global trade is plurilateral: coalitions of countries advancing common interests where it suits them. A sobering thought for anyone who still believes in one rules-based system for all, but it reflects the world as it is and may be the only practical way to keep cooperation alive.
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Centre for European Reform @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social · 18/03/2026
@antonspisak.bsky.social said that while it was helpful for Reeves to acknowledge the cost of Brexit, unless the Labour govt softened its manifesto red lines, deeper economic integration was off the table, meaning the gains for the UK economy would be “relatively small”. www.ft.com/content/c7eb...
ft.com
Rachel Reeves warned that more than warm words are needed to woo the EU
Bloc will not budge on granting UK greater access to its markets unless Labour accepts greater obligations, say industry analysts
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Anton Spisak @antonspisak.bsky.social · 13/03/2026
Another totally normal day in the life of the Trump administration. A Treasury order that permits the sales of Russian oil, including from the Kremlin’s shadow fleet.
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Ian Bond @cerianbond.bsky.social · 13/03/2026
Such a dismal tale about the UK govt: so obsessed w competing with far-right to keep out foreigners that it won’t let in the brightest & best from war-torn countries even when they’re hand-picked by the FCDO, lest they ask to stay. Soft power sacrificed, but how many Reform voters will it convert?
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Anton Spisak @antonspisak.bsky.social · 11/03/2026
How to build and maintain lasting public support for increased defence spending in Europe? It’s a key challenge that will reshape electoral politics in Europe in the years to come, but thankfully @armida.bsky.social offers some sensible and practical ideas for what can be done today.
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Ian Bond @cerianbond.bsky.social · 11/03/2026
Timely piece from @armida.bsky.social : in an increasingly dangerous security environment, where the US is a less & less reliable ally, European governments will have to find more money for defence - but can they do that without losing power?
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Anton Spisak @antonspisak.bsky.social · 10/03/2026
Mind-boggling figures on Chinese goods exports for the first two months of this year. Up 21.8% on the previous year. The reasons for this appear to be the forthcoming deadline for export tax rebates on solar panels and batteries. China's industrial policy in one chart!
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Anton Spisak @antonspisak.bsky.social · 09/03/2026
The clearest indication yet of how extensive the UK-EU SPS agreement will be. Covers almost everything. It also shows you where the current differences between the UK and EU lie (ie, what isn't included on the list): precision breeding/NGTs, veterinary meds, and (to a lesser extent) animal welfare.
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John Springford @johnspringford.bsky.social · 09/03/2026
New research by me @jdportes.bsky.social: we find that the end of free movement and the new immigration regime rather modestly raised the number of foreign-born workers in Britain – by about 200,000 in 2024. Thread. www.cer.eu/insights/imp...
cer.eu
The impact of Brexit on immigration to the UK
A new analysis finds that Brexit raised the number of foreign-born workers in the UK by about 200,000, but resulted in a more dramatic shift in the countries of origin.
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Anton Spisak @antonspisak.bsky.social · 04/03/2026
Sharp analysis by @sandertordoir.bsky.social @james-r-green.bsky.social on how Chinese tech investment in Europe is shifting and EU policy struggling to keep up. Plenty of lessons for EU policymakers as they revisit FDI screening and ask themselves some tricky questions about Europe's openness.
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