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Courtney Shupert

@courtneyshupert.bsky.social
791 followers 286 following 202 posts

Economist @ macropolicyperspectives.com, OKC Thunder Fan, dog mom, musician, Presbyterian

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Courtney Shupert @courtneyshupert.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
*US REMOVES HAKUNA MATATA, PINOCCHIO VESSELS FROM SANCTIONS LIST I thought bloomberg might be glitching but apparently this is real home.treasury.gov/news/press-r...
static.klipy.com
Simba, Pumbaa, and Timon's Hakuna Matata Walk
ALT: Simba, Pumbaa, and Timon's Hakuna Matata Walk
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Julia Coronado @jc-econ.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
This is not the 90s part bazilion and 6--the absolute voracious consumption of resources required for the AI buildout means the GDP deflator (economy wide inflation) is running 2.75x 1999 w. equip & intellectual prop investment inflation contributing meaningfully vs the disinflation of the 90s
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Nick Timiraos @nicktimiraos.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
In the early days of Trump’s second term, his economic advisers laid out a simple theory: Show the bond market that Washington was serious about closing its gaping deficits and long-term interest rates would fall on their own. Trump could leave the Fed alone. It hasn’t worked out that way.
wsj.com
The Moves That Backfired on Trump and Drove Interest Rates and Inflation Higher
The president’s own agenda has helped undermine promises to fix the economy and get the deficit under control.
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Michael Clemens @mclem.org · 12/09/2026
The US President's new proposal to tax international students has been approved by the White House for release this week. It's an unprecedented $100,000 tax on int'l grads who stay to work after graduation on Optional Practical Training (most grads do), a crucial bridge to remaining by any channel.
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Julia Coronado @jc-econ.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
Our Q3 Shadow Survey of Market Participants included the views of 111 respondents and we followed up with a Flash version after Aug CPI--a 25bp rate hike is now widely expected, particularly after Friday's inflation data...1/4 @laurarosner.bsky.social @courtneyshupert.bsky.social
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Julia Coronado @jc-econ.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
Take our flash survey! Just a few quick questions meant to capture views after the August CPI. We greatly appreciate your participation and will publish results end of day: Link here: survey.alchemer.com/s3/8989143/M...
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Julia Coronado @jc-econ.bsky.social · 06/09/2026
The Q3 Shadow Survey of Market Participants is a great way to prepare for the next two weeks--will the Fed hike? Is it dependent on the next inflation print? Provide your views and you will receive the views of ~100 others ahead of the Fed meeting. Link here: survey.alchemer.com/s3/8984436/M...
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Soumaya Keynes @soumayakeynes.ft.com · 03/09/2026
When is an economist not an economist? Do I count? My @FT column this week explores... www.ft.com/content/89f0...
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Courtney Shupert @courtneyshupert.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
Strong jobs report +162k! In part driven by a shift in seasonal factors, but with UR of 4.1% this gives the Fed plenty of room to focus more on their inflation mandate. A strong economy with more job growth, increasing GDP, and elevated inflation means policy is not meaningfully restrictive.
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Ray Douglas @raydouglas.bsky.social · 25/08/2026
🇺🇸 This is so preventable... This year, US measles cases have already hit the highest level in 35 years
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Courtney Shupert @courtneyshupert.bsky.social · 07/08/2026
Labor force participation continues to shrink. The unemployment rate would have rounded up to 4.3% in July if LFP had held steady at the June level. Instead, the unrounded unemployment rate moved to 4.09%, down ~10bp from July!
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Julia Coronado @jc-econ.bsky.social · 06/08/2026
They are missing the point imho, the market reaction had nothing to do with lack of forward guidance, it was a reaction to him revealing he is a faux hawk giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
giftarticle.ft.com
Kevin Warsh to stick with lean Fed messaging despite market backlash
US central bank chair remains confident that sweeping reforms will win over key investors
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Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 03/08/2026
LOL
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Courtney Shupert @courtneyshupert.bsky.social · 31/07/2026
"Mr. Warsh, who was presiding over his second meeting as chairman, left the impression that a revised schedule could be decided on before the next meeting in mid-September, even if the changes would not be carried out until later." Kudos to @bencasselman.bsky.social and @colbylsmith.bsky.social
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George Pearkes @peark.es · 31/07/2026
We are at the “r/finance is posting fancams of Chair Powell set to Taylor Swift” point in the cycle of regret over Temu Greenspan.
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Courtney Shupert @courtneyshupert.bsky.social · 29/07/2026
FWIW this is the first time in about 10yrs we've had 3 dissents in favor of a hike when the majority FOMC favors holding policy (last time Sept 2016)
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Julia Coronado @jc-econ.bsky.social · 29/07/2026
So all the hoopla was likely just nervousness around lack of FG, the Fed held as expected given signaling and data
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New York Fed @newyorkfed.org · 17/07/2026
A majority of small businesses in the goods and retail sectors nationally reported experiencing financial challenges due to tariffs in 2025, with even larger shares of small firms in the NY-NJ-CT region doing so. bit.ly/4wM6jKn
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David Wessel @davidmwessel.bsky.social · 16/07/2026
Overlooked? New housing law bans Fed from issuing a CBDC.
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Courtney Shupert @courtneyshupert.bsky.social · 15/07/2026
For fedwatchers now in day 2 of listening to congressional testimonies may I present: Warsh Lingo Bingo
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Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 09/07/2026
NY FED: “.. nearly half of firms that have paid tariffs still plan additional price increases to offset these costs, with some expecting to raise prices six months or more in the future.” @scottlincicome.bsky.social libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2026/07/more...
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Chris Giles @chrisgiles.ft.com · 07/07/2026
If kevin Warsh wants to avoid being caught with his pants down, he should avoid the BoE's communications from the 2000s... ...and confusing correlation and causation My newsletter: www.ft.com/content/8f35...
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Julia Coronado @jc-econ.bsky.social · 02/07/2026
As a new Fed Chair casts doubt on offical statistics after the Aministration drastically cut their funding, it is worth remembering how and why we created federal statistics agencies in the first place...they reduce scope for gaslighting the public www.aeaweb.org/articles/pdf...
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Julia Coronado @jc-econ.bsky.social · 30/06/2026
We *LOVED* technology in the 90s b/c it was making our lives better AND our wages and opportunities were booming, simply not the envionement we are in. Is that around the corner? That is decidedly not what companies are saying in their earnings reports H/T @courtneyshupert.bsky.social
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Michael Derby @michaelsderby.bsky.social · 30/06/2026
The latest on Trump’s immigration actions.
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Colby Smith @colbylsmith.bsky.social · 29/06/2026
NEW: How Warsh has begun to change the Fed Weeks into his chairmanship, Warsh's approach has taken shape – embrace aspects of how the Fed has historically operated but make clear that change is afoot gift link: www.nytimes.com/2026/06/29/b... @nytimes.com
nytimes.com
How Warsh Has Begun to Change the Fed
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Courtney Shupert @courtneyshupert.bsky.social · 29/06/2026
BLS response rate issues have made the household survey data noisier and in 2025 they quietly changed the precision thresholds. A recent GAO report noted a 0.3pp change in the unemployment rate is now required to count as statistically significant, up from 0.2pp. files.gao.gov/reports/GAO-...
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Claudia Sahm @claudia-sahm.bsky.social · 22/06/2026
Kevin Warsh may want a quieter Fed, but markets will fill the silence, just less reliably and at a high cost. Who—or what—becomes the “shadow Fed Chair” when the real one won’t talk? My latest: stayathomemacro.substack.com/p/will-the-s...
stayathomemacro.substack.com
Will the Shadow Fed Chair Please Stand Up?
Kevin Warsh may want a quieter Fed, but markets will fill the silence, just less reliably and at a high cost.
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Ted Hesson @tedhesson.bsky.social · 17/06/2026
Death rate in ICE immigrant detention centers more than doubles under Trump, w/ @kristinacooke.bsky.social @mashatsvetkova.bsky.social www.reuters.com/legal/govern...
reuters.com
Death rate in ICE immigrant detention centers more than doubles under Trump, Reuters analysis finds
Some 50 people have died in U.S. immigration detention since President Donald Trump launched his mass deportation campaign in January 2025, Immigration and Customs Enforcement records show.
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Hansi Lo Wang (he/him) @hansilowang.bsky.social · 16/06/2026
NEW: Multiple webpages on the Census Bureau's website are unavailable to the public more than a week after the Trump administration issued a ban on "noise infusion," one of the bureau's main ways of protecting people's privacy when it releases statistics
Screen grab of a page on the Census Bureau's website saying: "404: Page Not Found ... Sorry, the page you requested has either been moved or is no longer available."
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Aaron Sojourner @aaronsojourner.org · 14/06/2026
From former U.S. Census Chief Scientist John Abowd on LinkedIn, what Census data products are affected by Commerce's new policy? A devastating set of answers including all ACS Public Use Micro Samples www.linkedin.com/posts/john-a...
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Aaron Sojourner @aaronsojourner.org · 11/06/2026
More evidence of wage growth decelerating emerging today, from @atlantafed.org. Within-worker, over-the-year median wage growth rate decelerated to 3.5% in May from 3.6% in April, continuing the trend of weakening. www.atlantafed.org/research-and...
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Courtney Shupert @courtneyshupert.bsky.social · 11/06/2026
Economists and PMs! Our Q2 survey is live and asks fun questions like: how *SHOULD* Fed communication and policy strategy change under Chair Warsh vs how *WILL* it change? Give us your views and you will receive a copy of the full results tomorrow, ahead of the June FOMC mtg! lnkd.in/g58TKf8x
survey.alchemer.com
MPP shadow policy survey - June 2026
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Julia Coronado @jc-econ.bsky.social · 08/06/2026
The Q2 survey is a fun one--how *SHOULD* Fed communication/policy strategy change w/ the Warsh Fed, how *WILL* it change? Give us your views and you will receive a opy of the full results this Friday ahead of the June FOMC meeting. Copy to take the survey here: survey.alchemer.com/s3/8870674/M...
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Arin Dube @arindube.bsky.social · 10/06/2026
The Iran War is lowering real wages: the year-over-year 4.3% inflation outpaced the 3.4% wage growth, leaving American workers worse off.
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Joey Politano🏳️‍🌈 @josephpolitano.bsky.social · 10/06/2026
Still a brutal time for me and all the other US caffeine addicts—coffee prices are up 18% over the last year and 56% since 2020
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Julia Coronado @jc-econ.bsky.social · 03/06/2026
There is a common market assumption that Warsh will pivot to being an independent centrist, and yet these two guys are radical and their role in part would seem to undermine the input and influence of Fed staff...this highly unusual move suggests he is serious about "regime change"
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Julia Coronado @jc-econ.bsky.social · 28/05/2026
Consumer purchasing power taking a hit from the war in Iran and other various and sundry self inflicted supply shocks. For now consumers are doing a lot of smoothing but the boost from tax cuts was gobbled up and then some
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Courtney Shupert @courtneyshupert.bsky.social · 20/05/2026
Thanks @marketplace.org for having me on yesterday to to talk about why Fed communication is important! Markets function better when FOMC officials can openly share how new data and risks are impacting the likely path for policy, especially when there is uncertainty around the outlook.
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Courtney Shupert @courtneyshupert.bsky.social · 20/05/2026
Warsh is walking into a hawkish hornets nest
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George Pearkes @peark.es · 20/05/2026
PADD 5 (West Coast) distillate inventories getting into danger territory. PADD 2 (Upper Midwest) also stressed. National inventories are historically low despite totally normal USGC inventories...those are waiting for export.
Chart showing average distillate inventory for PADD 5 (US West Coast) by week of year for past 20 years.Chart showing average distillate inventory for PADD 5 (US Upper Midwest) by week of year for past 20 years.Chart showing average distillate inventory by week of year for past 20 years.Chart showing average distillate inventory for PADD 3 (US Gulf Coast) by week of year for past 20 years.
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Michael McKee @mckonomy.bsky.social · 12/05/2026
Senate has confirmed Kevin Warsh as @federalreserve.gov Governor. Confirmation as Chair likely tomorrow.
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New York Fed @newyorkfed.org · 12/05/2026
In today’s post, the authors share that our latest Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit finds that while student loan balances remained unchanged in Q1 2026, the share of student loan balances past due increased, neared pre-pandemic levels at just over 10%. nyfed.org/433SNF2
libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org
Federal Student Loan Defaults Return After Pandemic Pause - Liberty Street Economics
A look at federal student loan default rates and which borrowers have defaulted on their loans over the past two quarters, exploring credit implications.
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Victoria Guida @vtg2.bsky.social · 10/05/2026
“Kevin Warsh is the dog who caught the car. I say that with great affection and sympathy.” My column dispatch from Warsh’s intellectual home: www.politico.com/news/magazin...
politico.com
‘Affection And Sympathy’: Kevin Warsh’s Friends See Threats All Around Him
In Warsh’s intellectual stomping ground, anxiety runs high about the challenges facing the Federal Reserve.
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Julia Coronado @jc-econ.bsky.social · 12/05/2026
April inflation coming in hot on surging food and energy prices, core inflation was a little firm but not a huge surprise. Going to make it hard for Warsh to maintain an easing bias given solid labor market indicators and a core PCE translation that suggests continued acceleration
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Monique Morrissey @moniquemorrissey.bsky.social · 07/05/2026
Prominent WSJ coverage of important research on negative impact of deportations on other workers by @chloeneast.bsky.social and Elizabeth Cox, both at @colorado.edu. www.nber.org/papers/w35129
nber.org
Labor Market Impacts of ICE Activity in Trump 2.0
Founded in 1920, the NBER is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting economic research and to disseminating research findings among academics, public policy makers, an...
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Chad P. Bown @chadpbown.com · 07/05/2026
Prices of bags, containers, cups and utensils have all soared, sparking fears of shortages as manufacturers struggle to source packaging for products such as instant noodles, beverages and cosmetics. www.ft.com/content/3674...
ft.com
‘Plastic shock’ hits Asia as Iran oil crisis strangles supplies
Shortage of petrochemical inputs drives up prices of packaging for food and medical products
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Adam Isacson @adamisacson.com · 05/05/2026
This was added today to the HuffPost’s story about the illegal closure of the Immigration Detention Ombudsman’s office. It’s an easily disprovable lie. Check it out:
The email attributed the closure to a lack of funding in the Homeland Security appropriations bill that ended the recent shutdown, though the text of that bill does not require the closure of the ombudsman’s office.

“DHS did not shutdown the Office of Immigration Detention Ombudsman — Congress did,” an agency spokesperson told HuffPost in an email. “The House passed the DHS appropriations bill without objection, and it was signed into law last week.”
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Erika McEntarfer @erikamcentarfer.bsky.social · 05/05/2026
It's a very odd feeling to read that the cost of your firing was $20 billion to the US economy. Studies like this are so important. It's hard to put a value on a public service. Trustworthy economic data is vital to so much economic activity in a $29 trillion economy. Worth your time to read.
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Michael Derby @michaelsderby.bsky.social · 01/05/2026
NY Fed: "We find that, since 2023, wealth has increased the most for high-income households, while inflation has risen the most for low-income households, with both factors helping explain the fact that real retail spending rose the most for high-income households."
libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org
Explaining the K-Shaped Economy: What’s Behind the Divide? - Liberty Street Economics
An analysis of the recent divergence in consumer spending in which higher-income households experience faster spending growth than lower-income households.
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