Sign in

Claudia Sahm

@claudia-sahm.bsky.social
59K followers 411 following 876 posts

macro, fiscal, Fed. creator of the Sahm rule recession indicator. Stay-At-Home Macro (SAHM) Substack.

PostsRepliesMedia
Reposted by Claudia Sahm
Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT @mikezaccardi.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
From @Claudia_Sahm "The September hike was risk management... not the start of an aggressive hiking cycle. They are hedging their bets... The Committee is centered around one more hike this year."
512315
Claudia Sahm @claudia-sahm.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
It's Jobs Day! I'm on @bloomberglp.bsky.social Radio/Youtube with Tom Keene & Paul Sweeney at 8:25 am ET. www.youtube.com/watch?v=f39o....
youtube.com
Bloomberg Live: Business, Finance, Earnings & Investment News | Watch 7AM - 6PM ET Weekdays
YouTube video by Bloomberg Podcasts
3372
Claudia Sahm @claudia-sahm.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
Growth in FRED users well above 20% *per year* for 30 years. That's impressive!
67310
Claudia Sahm @claudia-sahm.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
Beautiful evening in Duluth on Lake Superior.
6962
Reposted by Claudia Sahm
Michael Derby @michaelsderby.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
NY Fed Williams: "With the policy action we took at our September meeting, there is no need for urgency...If the economy evolves in a manner broadly consistent with my forecast, one ⁠further upward adjustment of the federal funds target range may be appropriate late this year."
reuters.com
Fed's Williams sees no urgency for next Fed rate hike
Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John ​Williams said on Tuesday the U.S. central bank has time to weigh the data before deciding when to ‌hike interest rates again, in remarks that said one ...
2163
Claudia Sahm @claudia-sahm.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
“I don’t see this ending soon,” said Firrincieli. “Chaos increases prices.” Plenty of chaos from the White House: war, restrictions on immigrants, and tariff threats are all raising transport costs now. www.wsj.com/business/inf...
wsj.com
The Cost of Transporting Pretty Much Everything Just Won’t Stop Going Up
Trucking and cargo-shipping rates are at their highest levels in years—and it isn’t just because of the price of fuel.
26219
Claudia Sahm @claudia-sahm.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
Martin Wolf in the FT: the hike was sensible, overdue, and unanimous. He's critical of Trump's views on rates. Wolf also takes up my questions for the Chair. Thoughtful column. www.ft.com/content/d2e5...
ft.com
The battle between the Fed and Trump
What happens when a fundamentally strong economy faces an irresponsible government?
5212
Reposted by Claudia Sahm
Chris Rugaber @chrisrugaber.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
Boston Fed president Susan Collins says the Iran war helped tip her in favor of an interest rate hike last week. She also penciled in one more hike this year and none in 2027, she said in an interview. apnews.com/article/infl...
apnews.com
https://apnews.com/article/inflation-goolsbee-federal-reserve-rates-5acf1f7e4f38ac77329fa0b9aaddd30f
2335
Reposted by Claudia Sahm
Jesse Felder @jessefelder.com · 21/09/2026
“This is exactly the painful trade-off between employment and inflation that stagflationary shocks always impose on a central bank. Unfortunately, in environments like that, the only way back is the hard way.” www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
bloomberg.com
Fed’s Goolsbee Says Road to 2% Inflation May Not Be Painless
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee warned the central bank cannot ignore repeated and persistent supply shocks, and must respond in a way that may cause economic hardship.
814343
Claudia Sahm @claudia-sahm.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
New post: Questions for the Chair. The Fed made the right call last week. The press conference left five questions open. "Warsh continues to tell us which standard tools he doesn't use. He has not said what he uses instead." stayathomemacro.substack.com/p/questions-...
stayathomemacro.substack.com
Questions for the Chair
A good meeting, and five questions the press conference left open.
1214
Claudia Sahm @claudia-sahm.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
“There’s a lot of very clear evidence that the policies of the White House — tariffs and the conflict in the Middle East — have pushed up inflation,” said Claudia Sahm www.ft.com/content/4660...
ft.com
Kevin Warsh defies Donald Trump’s calls for lower borrowing costs
Also in today’s newsletter, US lawmakers pass sanctions bill to pressure Russia
36914
Claudia Sahm @claudia-sahm.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
"The Fed is fighting a real problem. Inflation is too high. These higher interest rates are costly medicine." My take on the rate hike this morning with @npr.org's Morning Edition: what the Fed is trying to do, what it can't do, and who pays along the way. www.npr.org/2026/09/17/n...
6376
Claudia Sahm @claudia-sahm.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
#PuffiSays it’s Fed Day! … Yes, kitty it’s here. No need to hide, I hope. ❤️
3612
Reposted by Claudia Sahm
Claudia Sahm @claudia-sahm.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
Costly medicine. My latest on Wednesday's Fed decision. Modest rate hikes have a modest goal, and the decision is only the first step. The explanation is critical. stayathomemacro.substack.com/p/costly-med...
stayathomemacro.substack.com
Costly medicine
The Fed is likely to raise rates on Wednesday. Here's what a hike can do, what it can't, and why the explanation matters as much as the decision.
3379
Claudia Sahm @claudia-sahm.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
Costly medicine. My latest on Wednesday's Fed decision. Modest rate hikes have a modest goal, and the decision is only the first step. The explanation is critical. stayathomemacro.substack.com/p/costly-med...
stayathomemacro.substack.com
Costly medicine
The Fed is likely to raise rates on Wednesday. Here's what a hike can do, what it can't, and why the explanation matters as much as the decision.
3379
Claudia Sahm @claudia-sahm.bsky.social · 13/09/2026
Last time the Fed hiked before an election? 2022 midterm under Biden. From 1984 to 2024, the Fed adjusted rates (up or down) within 60 days of an election (43%) as often as in any other 60-day period (45%).
69033
Claudia Sahm @claudia-sahm.bsky.social · 13/09/2026
Interview with AFP in which I explain that a rate hike this week is "quite likely," but it is "not a magic wand and it is a costly medicine." Also, good points from @davidmwessel.bsky.social on Warsh's credibility. finance.yahoo.com/economy/poli...
finance.yahoo.com
'This is the test': All eyes on US Fed to tackle high inflation
The US Federal Reserve goes into a key rate-setting meeting this week with markets expecting policymakers to pull the trigger on a rate hike to tackle persistently high inflation -- and analysts say c...
6315
Claudia Sahm @claudia-sahm.bsky.social · 12/09/2026
morning walk.
3471
Reposted by Claudia Sahm
Ivan the K ™ @ivanthek.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
Never forget.
1518
Reposted by Claudia Sahm
Fabian Biancardi, PhD @fbiancardi.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
“It’s a non-sequitur blackmail”! @steveliesman.bsky.social on Trump’s economically illiterate threat against the Fed if it doesn’t cut rates. 👏 👏
1101
Reposted by Claudia Sahm
Bob Burgess @bobburgess.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
MUST READ:
191
Claudia Sahm @claudia-sahm.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
My new @opinion.bloomberg.com piece, “… credibility lives in what people believe the central bank will do under pressure. It is precisely when the pressure is greatest that the Fed’s credibility is won or lost.”
75916
Claudia Sahm @claudia-sahm.bsky.social · 07/09/2026
Hike or hold? That's the question for the Fed. New post on why I moved from hold to hike: I'm no longer confident inflation gets back to 2% without the Fed acting. Energy, tariffs, and AI buildout have worsened the risks. Modest tightening is insurance. stayathomemacro.substack.com/p/something-...
stayathomemacro.substack.com
Something is shifting in the inflation picture
Why I moved from hold to hike ahead of the Fed's September meeting.
106217
Claudia Sahm @claudia-sahm.bsky.social · 06/09/2026
Mein Herz bricht 💔 ... to see a far-right party with neo-Nazi roots rise in Germany. As a Fulbright scholar in Dresden and the mother of two German-American children, it's not the votes that crush me. It's the lies told to people who are already suffering.
7645
Claudia Sahm @claudia-sahm.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
So, what chapter of the fiscal dominance book are we on now? Demands for lower rates, the threat of a trade embargo, calls for patriotism at the Fed?
219511
Claudia Sahm @claudia-sahm.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
It's Jobs Day! Always important, the one before Labor Day is a particular reminder: it's not just jobs; we need good ones. On Bloomberg Surveillance (Radio/YouTube) at 8:25 am ET. www.youtube.com/watch?v=f39o...
youtube.com
Bloomberg Live: Business, Finance, Earnings & Investment News | Watch 7AM - 6PM ET Weekdays
YouTube video by Bloomberg Podcasts
2276
Claudia Sahm @claudia-sahm.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
"The speech was true to Kevin Warsh, and it was the first time he sounded like a Fed Chair. That's only the first step to being a good Chair, but an important one." stayathomemacro.substack.com/p/welcome-mr...
stayathomemacro.substack.com
Welcome, Mr. Chairman
Kevin Warsh’s speech at Jackson Hole was the introduction to the Fed Chair we deserved. In two weeks, the real work begins.
3314
Reposted by Claudia Sahm
Yuriy Gorodnichenko @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social · 31/08/2026
War doesn't just destroy factories and kill people — it makes everything left standing less productive. New paper shows half of #Ukraine wartime output collapse comes from allocative TFP loss: resources are trapped in the wrong places. The hidden cost of war is misallocation. tinyurl.com/54w5chce
15617
Claudia Sahm @claudia-sahm.bsky.social · 30/08/2026
“If they can possibly put it off till after the midterms, it would be good for the institution,” said Kenneth Rogoff, a Harvard professor who previously served as chief economist at the I.M.F." AAARRRGGGGHHHH. www.nytimes.com/2026/08/29/b...
nytimes.com
Warsh, After Talking Tough on Inflation, Faces a ‘No-Win Situation’ on Rates
Kevin M. Warsh, the chairman of the Federal Reserve, must soon decide whether to raise interest rates if inflation does not ease, even if it draws President Trump’s ire.
1411012
Claudia Sahm @claudia-sahm.bsky.social · 29/08/2026
“In 2026, AI ‘is the story of everything,’ said Claudia Sahm.” … great piece by @shiraovide.bsky.social on AI and the Fed debates wapo.st/4wYq557
wapo.st
The Fed confronts a powerful new economic force
In meetings on how to steer the nation’s financial path, central bank officials regularly debate the effect of artificial intelligence on the economy, a Post analysis found.
3262
Claudia Sahm @claudia-sahm.bsky.social · 29/08/2026
#PuffiSays nice job today. keep bringing it.
3793
Claudia Sahm @claudia-sahm.bsky.social · 28/08/2026
“There is something shifting in the inflation picture in the US right now,” says Claudia Sahm. She says on @bloombergtv.bsky.social that it would be “most appropriate” for the Federal Reserve to start raising rates. www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/...
bloomberg.com
Watch Jackson Hole: It’s Probably Time for the Fed to Do More, Says Economist Sahm - Bloomberg
“There is something shifting in the inflation picture in the US right now,” says Claudia Sahm, chief economist at New Century Advisors. She says on “Bloomberg Surveillance” that it would be “most appr...
34912
Claudia Sahm @claudia-sahm.bsky.social · 28/08/2026
Agenda for 2026 Jackson Hole Symposium, much more than a speech. www.kansascityfed.org/research/jac...
kansascityfed.org
Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium: Financial Innovation — Implications for Payments and Policy
The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City hosts central bankers, policymakers, academics and economists at its annual economic policy symposium.
1231
Claudia Sahm @claudia-sahm.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
Tomorrow’s episode of the The Apprentice better be good.
3465
Claudia Sahm @claudia-sahm.bsky.social · 26/08/2026
On @marketplace.org, with me on the #JacksonHole speech we "deserve" from Kevin Warsh. www.marketplace.org/story/2026/0...
marketplace.org
Will Fed Chair Warsh actually say anything in his big Friday speech?
Warsh has said that he doesn't want to forecast what the Fed plans to do. So economists are hoping for clues into how he thinks.
1261
Claudia Sahm @claudia-sahm.bsky.social · 25/08/2026
No, not Dolly. 💔 RIP. www.youtube.com/watch?v=lKsQ...
youtube.com
Dolly Parton - I Will Always Love You (Official Audio)
YouTube video by DollyPartonVEVO
1422
Reposted by Claudia Sahm
The Contrarian @contrariannews.org · 25/08/2026
TODAY AT 12pm ET: Join Jared Bernstein and @claudia-sahm.bsky.social for a conversation about all things economy. Do you have questions about the economy? Share them in the comments for a chance to hear them answered during the live. Watch on Substack: open.substack.com/live-stream/333654
1315
Claudia Sahm @claudia-sahm.bsky.social · 25/08/2026
Druck using AI to write the op ed is the sickest burn of 2026. Didn't even waste his time writing up why Bessent was wrong. Note: the argument is classic Druck + Claude-isms.
610019
Claudia Sahm @claudia-sahm.bsky.social · 24/08/2026
Weirdest use of Pascal's wager.
6420
Reposted by Claudia Sahm
Erika McEntarfer @erikamcentarfer.bsky.social · 19/08/2026
"Work on the analysis was not conducted by career civil servants at the Census Bureau, and the team behind it included individuals affiliated with the America First Policy Institute, a think tank started by officials from Trump's first administration.." www.npr.org/2026/08/19/n...
npr.org
Experts raise alarms over Census Bureau report Trump is touting on noncitizen voting
A Trump-aligned think tank has ties to a highly unusual Census Bureau report that the president is using to renew false claims of widespread voting by non-U.S. citizens in 2020, NPR has learned.
713546
Reposted by Claudia Sahm
Usefulness and Reputation @orchardkeeping.bsky.social · 20/08/2026
Excellent excavation and exposure of details! This is right down to the bones.
071
Claudia Sahm @claudia-sahm.bsky.social · 20/08/2026
The Chair is the Fed's storyteller, and this one is proving unreliable. My new post on how to listen to the Warsh Fed. stayathomemacro.substack.com/p/read-the-m...
stayathomemacro.substack.com
Read the Minutes, Fade the Presser
Warsh's explanation of the July hold was not the Committee's. Heading into September, the FOMC minutes have the reaction function that matters.
43410
Reposted by Claudia Sahm
Hansi Lo Wang (he/him) @hansilowang.bsky.social · 19/08/2026
SCOOP: A Trump-aligned think tank, America First Policy Institute, has ties to a highly unusual Census Bureau report that the president is using to renew false claims of widespread voting by non-U.S. citizens in 2020, @npr.org has learned www.npr.org/2026/08/19/n...
npr.org
Experts raise alarms over Census Bureau report Trump is touting on noncitizen voting
A Trump-aligned think tank has ties to a highly unusual Census Bureau report that the president is using to renew false claims of widespread voting by non-U.S. citizens in 2020, NPR has learned.
37233
Reposted by Claudia Sahm
Hansi Lo Wang (he/him) @hansilowang.bsky.social · 18/08/2026
NEW: The Census Bureau did not immediately respond to NPR's questions about analysis that President Trump said in a social media post the bureau is conducting about non-U.S. citizens illegally voting in the 2020 election, which many past studies have found to be extremely rare
Screen grab of President Trump's Aug. 18 post that says: "The Census Bureau has begun checking the Voter Records from 2020 against their Citizenship Records. On the first 128,000,000 Voters, the Census Bureau proves that over 24,000 Noncitizens voted illegally! The Census Bureau is going to analyze the next 32,000,000 Voters, and this number will explode. I WON THE ELECTION! We must pass THE SAVE AMERICA ACT. Thank you for your attention to this matter! President DONALD J. TRUMP"
1315568
Claudia Sahm @claudia-sahm.bsky.social · 18/08/2026
I was musing over the weekend about where EJMR would go now that the site's been shut down. I hadn't expected The Economist to be the answer.
1260
Claudia Sahm @claudia-sahm.bsky.social · 17/08/2026
We have a clear sense of what Warsh doesn't like at the Fed, but very little sense of what he's proposing as a replacement. His Jackson Hole speech is an opportunity to fix that. Pick any part of his regime change and defend it. stayathomemacro.substack.com/p/go-to-the-...
stayathomemacro.substack.com
Go to the mountains, come down from 30,000 feet
Kevin Warsh's first Jackson Hole speech is a test of the Chair, and of the Fed's credibility.
4334
Claudia Sahm @claudia-sahm.bsky.social · 17/08/2026
Gotta give it Claude as a vacation planner. Less than two weeks ago I figured out some time off was a necessity. Gave me several options and it worked out so well. It even made fun of the books I tried to pack, calling them my job wearing a snorkel.
4473
Claudia Sahm @claudia-sahm.bsky.social · 16/08/2026
Vacay fun: tried to pick out a movie to watch together. 16 yo son said Obsession, I said Anaconda, and hubby was appalled at all the hotel options. Went out for ice cream at Chaps instead.
2560
Claudia Sahm @claudia-sahm.bsky.social · 15/08/2026
5671
Claudia Sahm @claudia-sahm.bsky.social · 15/08/2026
I heard this week that the cesspool econ website EJMR went dark. it’s been offline for over a week now. no tears shed here. solid poetic justice that unrelenting AI bot attacks appear to have been its downfall. but it raises a question: where does the demand for info go next?
2666