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Colby Smith

@colbylsmith.bsky.social
14K followers 181 following 399 posts

@nytimes correspondent writing about the Federal Reserve and the US economy. Previously @FT, @TheEconomist, @BloombergTV. colby.smith@nytimes.com

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Colby Smith @colbylsmith.bsky.social · 26/08/2026
NEW: Warsh heads to Jackson Hole with an opportunity to articulate his own economic framework, the Fed's policy choices as it contends with inflation and how he is assessing seismic changes — such as productivity gains from AI — that could alter the country’s growth prospects in the years ahead.
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Colby Smith @colbylsmith.bsky.social · 20/08/2026
The Treasury market rally is unraveling following Bessent’s surprise buyback announcement yesterday. Our piece on the new interventionist Treasury and how success will not come easy www.nytimes.com/2026/08/20/b... w/ Alan Rappeport @nytimes.com
nytimes.com
Treasury Turns to Interventionist Tactics to Lower Interest Rates
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is reinventing the government’s role in the world’s most important bond market.
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Colby Smith @colbylsmith.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
New inflation data showing a modest easing of price pressures in July has given the Fed some breathing room as it considers raising rates. But the prospect of higher borrowing costs remains firmly on the table as officials begin to lose patience about how long inflation has overshot their target
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Colby Smith @colbylsmith.bsky.social · 31/07/2026
SCOOP: Warsh is considering reducing the number of policy meetings the Fed holds each year. He raised the idea at this week's meeting, according to four people with knowledge of the situation
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Colby Smith @colbylsmith.bsky.social · 30/07/2026
NEW: The Fed is in the business of "performance," Warsh said on Wednesday. It did not take long for markets to signal they were unhappy with his. Warsh reiterated tough talk on inflation but stopped short of embracing the prospects of higher rates, which many believe are necessary to address it
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Reposted by Colby Smith
Peter Baker @peterbakernyt.bsky.social · 29/07/2026
Warsh's Fed decides to keep interest rates unchanged despite growing pressure to more directly tackle inflation after five years of overshooting the central bank’s 2 percent target. @colbylsmith.bsky.social www.nytimes.com/live/2026/07...
nytimes.com
What to know about the Fed’s decision.
Kevin M. Warsh, presiding over his second meeting as chairman of the central bank, faces pressure to raise interest rates as inflation remains elevated.
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Colby Smith @colbylsmith.bsky.social · 28/07/2026
The Fed's July meeting has officially kicked off. Our preview of the surprisingly uncertain decision is here: www.nytimes.com/2026/07/27/b... @nytimes.com
nytimes.com
The Fed’s New Chairman Faces His Biggest Test Yet
Kevin M. Warsh, who has said the Federal Reserve has “no tolerance” for elevated inflation, must decide whether he wants to push for an interest-rate increase at this week’s policy meeting.
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Colby Smith @colbylsmith.bsky.social · 17/07/2026
NEW: Cooler inflation data this week helped to quiet calls for a July rate hike, but Fed officials have not written off the possibility of a move soon after What the Fed ends up having to do depends on the trajectory for inflation, and some policymakers seem more patient than others
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Colby Smith @colbylsmith.bsky.social · 14/07/2026
Warsh to set to reiterate to lawmakers on Tuesday his commitment to getting inflation down. He says the Fed will set policy "right" such that "the inflation surge of the last five years will be a thing of the past." www.nytimes.com/2026/07/14/b... @nytimes.com
nytimes.com
Warsh to Reiterate Fed’s Pledge to Get Inflation Down
Kevin M. Warsh, since becoming chairman of the Federal Reserve, has declined to say whether he supports higher interest rates to tame price pressures.
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Colby Smith @colbylsmith.bsky.social · 13/07/2026
WALLER: "If we get another hot reading on core inflation this week, then the FOMC will need to consider tightening monetary policy in the near term." "Sternly staring at inflation until it melts before our withering gaze is not an option." www.nytimes.com/2026/07/13/b... @nytimes.com
nytimes.com
Fed Official Warns of Higher Rates if Inflation Stays Elevated
Christopher J. Waller, a governor at the Federal Reserve, said he needs to see several months of lower inflation data to feel confident about the outlook.
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Colby Smith @colbylsmith.bsky.social · 08/07/2026
A few Fed officials said there was a case for a rate hike at Warsh's first meeting, according to minutes from the June gathering. Officials are evenly split on the need for hikes to combat inflation and Warsh's opposition to forward guidance has left investors guessing on the next move
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Colby Smith @colbylsmith.bsky.social · 01/07/2026
At Sintra, Warsh says further details on his five task forces will likely be announced next week. Our piece from earlier this week on how Warsh has already begun to change the Fed gift link: www.nytimes.com/2026/06/29/b...
nytimes.com
How Warsh Has Begun to Change the Fed
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Colby Smith @colbylsmith.bsky.social · 01/07/2026
Warsh on the AI boom: "We can see it on the demand side, but it's up to the central bank to decide whether it's inflationary"
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Colby Smith @colbylsmith.bsky.social · 30/06/2026
The Supreme Court's decision to let Cook stay on as a Fed governor is no doubt a victory for the central bank's independence. But the narrow ruling did not foreclose the president’s ability to try to dismiss officials in the future www.nytimes.com/2026/06/29/u... @nytimes.com @tonyromm.bsky.social
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Colby Smith @colbylsmith.bsky.social · 29/06/2026
Cook is allowed to stay in her job, citing no due process. Court rules 5-4 with Roberts, Sotomayor, Kagan, Kavanaugh and Jackson in the majority.
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Colby Smith @colbylsmith.bsky.social · 29/06/2026
A lot of these dynamics were captured in June's policy meeting. Procedurally, it followed the same structure as in the past but in terms of substance it was starkly different The streamlined statement and price stability pledge were instigated by Warsh, according to people familiar with the matter
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Reposted by Colby Smith
Ben Casselman @bencasselman.bsky.social · 29/06/2026
Kevin Warsh has promised "regime change" at the Federal Reserve. His early weeks on the job have given some hints of what that could look like -- but with many questions still unanswered. From the deeply sourced @colbylsmith.bsky.social: www.nytimes.com/2026/06/29/b... #EconSky
nytimes.com
How Warsh Has Begun to Change the Fed
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Colby Smith @colbylsmith.bsky.social · 29/06/2026
NEW: How Warsh has begun to change the Fed Weeks into his chairmanship, Warsh's approach has taken shape – embrace aspects of how the Fed has historically operated but make clear that change is afoot gift link: www.nytimes.com/2026/06/29/b... @nytimes.com
nytimes.com
How Warsh Has Begun to Change the Fed
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Colby Smith @colbylsmith.bsky.social · 25/06/2026
New forecasts from Williams at the New York Fed: Expects real GDP growth around 2.25% this year through the next two years as the unemployment rate edges down to 4% in 2028 Fed to reach its 2% inflation target in 2028. Headline PCE to decline to 3.5% by year-end (4.1% as of May)
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Colby Smith @colbylsmith.bsky.social · 25/06/2026
One aspect of the inflation debate at the Fed centers around the best measure for underlying price pressures. Warsh has talked about the value of trimmed mean, which strips out outliers. One risk is that policymakers will focus on whichever measure gives them the answer they prefer
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Colby Smith @colbylsmith.bsky.social · 25/06/2026
NEW: If the deal to end the Iran war holds, the worst of the recent inflation surge could soon be over. But the Fed’s inflation problem is far from fixed. The question officials are grappling with is just how patient they can afford to be in waiting for underlying price pressures to ease
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Colby Smith @colbylsmith.bsky.social · 24/06/2026
More plaudits for Warsh during Bessent's interview with @cnbc.com this morning. He backed Warsh getting rid of forward guidance and his "tough" message on inflation
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Colby Smith @colbylsmith.bsky.social · 22/06/2026
Greenspan was the only Fed chair that Warsh singled out at his swearing-in ceremony back in May. From communications to alternative data, our piece on how Warsh is seeking to carry on his legacy www.nytimes.com/2026/06/22/b... @nytimes.com @bencasselman.bsky.social
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Colby Smith @colbylsmith.bsky.social · 18/06/2026
NEW: Markets have been quick to fill a void left by Warsh at his first Fed meeting, having abstained from policy guidance. His approach has the benefit of carving out flexibility for the Fed. But it also raises the risk that he will not have as firm a grip on the narrative that takes hold
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Colby Smith @colbylsmith.bsky.social · 17/06/2026
Three things to watch at Warsh's first Fed meeting: 1) Is this the end of policy guidance from the Fed chair? 2) Just how does Warsh characterize the extent of the Fed's inflation problem? 3) What does Warsh mean by regime change? www.nytimes.com/2026/06/17/b... @nytimes.com
nytimes.com
What to Watch at the Federal Reserve’s June Meeting
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Colby Smith @colbylsmith.bsky.social · 16/06/2026
NEW: At his first meeting as Fed chairman, Warsh confronts a tenuous balancing act His pledge to recast how the Fed communicates adds another complication. He'll do his best to avoid providing a steer on policy, an approach that risks stoking vol www.nytimes.com/2026/06/16/b... @nytimes.com
nytimes.com
Warsh Faces Tenuous Balancing Act in First Fed Meeting as Chairman
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Colby Smith @colbylsmith.bsky.social · 10/06/2026
The mild 0.2% monthly increase in core inflation in May will be viewed positively by officials at the Fed. Their primary concern is that price pressures caused by the war could start to broaden out beyond categories like food and energy www.nytimes.com/live/2026/06...
nytimes.com
Live Updates: Inflation Jumps as Iran War Intensifies Price Squeeze
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Colby Smith @colbylsmith.bsky.social · 01/06/2026
In his first remarks after stepping down as Fed chair, Powell says the central bank is undergoing a “stress test” and says the removal of officials over policy disagreements would undermine its credibility www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/s...
federalreserve.gov
Acceptance remarks by Governor Powell at the John F. Kennedy Library Foundation
Thank you, Jack, for that kind introduction. It is a great privilege to be here tonight with you, Ambassador Kennedy, and your family. And thank you to the JFK
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Colby Smith @colbylsmith.bsky.social · 22/05/2026
Complicating the rates outlook is a likely shift in the Fed's comms. Warsh says officials talk too much and box themselves in That creates a self-reinforcing loop, Warsh believes. Instead of giving an independent judgment on the state of the economy, markets reflect what the Fed has signaled
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Colby Smith @colbylsmith.bsky.social · 22/05/2026
Waller: "I can no longer rule out rate hikes further down the road if inflation does not abate soon" He becomes the latest Fed official to endorse removing the easing bias from the statement and making clear that a rate hike is just as likely as a rate cut going forward
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Colby Smith @colbylsmith.bsky.social · 22/05/2026
As Warsh gets sworn in, the case for cuts has evaporated. Fed officials have embraced the possibility of hikes, sending Treasury yields higher Pushing for cuts would both isolate Warsh from his new colleagues and risk higher, not lower, long rates www.nytimes.com/2026/05/22/u... @nytimes.com
nytimes.com
Warsh to Take Charge of Fed Facing Rising Inflation Threat
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Colby Smith @colbylsmith.bsky.social · 21/05/2026
On the eve of Warsh's swearing in as Fed chair on Friday, here's our piece from last week about what he means by regime change and how likely he is to achieve that www.nytimes.com/2026/05/15/u... @nytimes.com
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Colby Smith @colbylsmith.bsky.social · 20/05/2026
Our full write-up: www.nytimes.com/2026/05/20/b...
nytimes.com
Most Fed Officials Embraced Possibility of Higher Rates at Recent Meeting
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Colby Smith @colbylsmith.bsky.social · 20/05/2026
Key line in April's Fed minutes: A majority of officials embraced the possibility of higher rates to counteract the inflation surge www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypoli... @nytimes.com
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Colby Smith @colbylsmith.bsky.social · 20/05/2026
Really enjoyed speaking with Pres. Paulson about her outlook. She says rates are still “mildly restrictive,” even as she ratified market pricing for no cuts this year and the possibility of a hike later on We also talked about AI, the dot plot and her thoughts on centralizing Fed operations
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Colby Smith @colbylsmith.bsky.social · 15/05/2026
Powell's tenure is not over just yet. Because Warsh has not been sworn in, Powell will serve as chair pro tempore, the Fed said on Friday. Bowman and Miran say they didn't support the temporary designation
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Colby Smith @colbylsmith.bsky.social · 15/05/2026
Powell is remembered as an effective leader who navigated the Fed through an extraordinary series of shocks. His plain-spoken communication style made him popular across Wall Street and Washington, support he leveraged as he took on Trump to defend the Fed's independence.
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Colby Smith @colbylsmith.bsky.social · 15/05/2026
NEW: Warsh wants regime change at the Fed and missteps during Powell's tenure made the central bank vulnerable to that kind of criticism But an assessment of Powell's 8 yrs as chair points to a far more constructive legacy than Warsh portrays www.nytimes.com/2026/05/15/u... @nytimes.com
nytimes.com
As Powell Steps Down, the Fed Confronts ‘Regime Change’
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Colby Smith @colbylsmith.bsky.social · 14/05/2026
In his resignation letter to Trump, Miran (whose seat on the Fed's board of governors will now be occupied by Warsh) reiterated his argument for lower rates and hit out at the Fed for how it thinks about/measures inflation
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Colby Smith @colbylsmith.bsky.social · 13/05/2026
Senate votes 54-45 to confirm Warsh as the next chair of the Fed He will take over at a tenuous moment for the central bank. Trump wants lower rates, but the case for cuts has only weakened as the war in Iran has pushed up inflation www.nytimes.com/2026/05/13/u... @nytimes.com
nytimes.com
Senate Confirms Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair
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Colby Smith @colbylsmith.bsky.social · 12/05/2026
Warsh has just moved one step closer to becoming the next chair of the Fed. The Senate just confirmed him to serve a 14-year term on the board of governors. His vote to become the next chair could come as early as tomorrow.
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Colby Smith @colbylsmith.bsky.social · 12/05/2026
Latest CPI report underscores how tough it will be for Warsh to deliver cuts once he takes over as Fed chair. Core CPI is up 0.4 percent in April, or 2.8% compared to the same time last year. www.nytimes.com/2026/05/12/b... @nytimes.com @lydiadepillis.bsky.social
nytimes.com
Inflation Accelerates After Weeks of War in Iran
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Colby Smith @colbylsmith.bsky.social · 08/05/2026
A stable labor market has given the Fed more flexibility to focus on mounting inflation risks stemming from the war in Iran, which have weakened the case among officials for rate cuts www.nytimes.com/2026/05/08/b... @nytimes.com
nytimes.com
Fed Officials Weigh Stable Jobs Backdrop Against Rising Inflation Risks
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Colby Smith @colbylsmith.bsky.social · 01/05/2026
In explaining their dissents this week, Kashkari and Hammack cite resurgent inflation risks stemming from the Iran War. Kashkari (below) says a "series" of hikes might be needed if the Strait of Hormuz stays closed, "even at the risk of further weakness to the labor market."
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Colby Smith @colbylsmith.bsky.social · 30/04/2026
NEW: In choosing to stay, Powell used the one tool of leverage he had left to push back on an administration that has aggressively attacked the central bank The question now is whether his continued presence at the Fed will further inflame tensions www.nytimes.com/2026/04/30/b... @nytimes.com
nytimes.com
Behind Powell’s High-Stakes Decision to Stay at the Fed
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Colby Smith @colbylsmith.bsky.social · 29/04/2026
Wednesday's Fed meeting encapsulated the acute challenges that Warsh will inherit once confirmed as chair. Divisions have emerged inside the central bank about the policy path, Powell is staying on and Trump is not letting up his demands for lower rates www.nytimes.com/2026/04/29/b... @nytimes.com
nytimes.com
Fed Meeting Underscores Tough Task Ahead for Warsh
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Colby Smith @colbylsmith.bsky.social · 29/04/2026
Three things to watch at the Fed meeting: 1) Does the Fed perceive the war in Iran as more of a threat to inflation or growth? 2) Is there now two-sided risk to rates? 3) Will Powell leave after his term as chair ends May 15? www.nytimes.com/live/2026/04... @nytimes.com
nytimes.com
What to Watch at the Federal Reserve’s April Meeting
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Colby Smith @colbylsmith.bsky.social · 28/04/2026
This week’s Fed meeting is set to be Powell's last as chair. But the wait and see policy path that he carved out amid resurgent inflation risks is likely to stay intact long after he leaves the top job. That means rate cuts may be on an extended hold www.nytimes.com/2026/04/28/b... @nytimes.com
nytimes.com
Transition to a New Fed Chair Is Unlikely to Mean Immediate Rate Cuts
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Colby Smith @colbylsmith.bsky.social · 25/04/2026
“If this becomes a tried-and-true path to bully a central banker out of office, then we will see its invocation again,” warns @petercontibrown.bsky.social
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Colby Smith @colbylsmith.bsky.social · 24/04/2026
Crucially, Tillis has not yet spoken today about whether he will now allow Warsh's confirmation to proceed. Powell, meanwhile, has reason to be skeptical that the legal threats against him and the institution are well and truly over, keeping alive the prospects that he stays on as a governor
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