Sign in

Carsten Braband

@cbraband.bsky.social
522 followers 1K following 61 posts

MA Sozialwissenschaften HU Berlin

PostsRepliesMedia
Reposted by Carsten Braband
Julius Kölzer @juliusk.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
Der Wahlerfolg der Berliner Linken wird mit Zohran Mamdanis Kampagne in New York verglichen: Fokus auf junge, migrantische Wählergruppen und hohe Wohnkosten. Unsere Datenanalyse im @tagesspiegel.de deutet darauf hin, dass das funktioniert haben könnte. 🧵 interaktiv.tagesspiegel.de/lab/der-berl...
214246
Reposted by Carsten Braband
Teresa Bücker @teresabuecker.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
Die Linke hat in Berlin mehr Nicht-Wähler*innen mobilisiert als die AfD. Nicht-Wähler*innen sind vielfältig. Es lohnt sich immer und für alle Parteien, um sie zu kämpfen und sich zu fragen, welche Gruppen übergangen werden, welche nach Repräsentation suchen und welche sie aktuell verlieren.
Grafik zur Wählerwanderung in Berlin 

https://www.tagesschau.de/inland/innenpolitik/waehlerwanderung-abgeordnetenhaus-berlin-2026-100.html
211200265
Reposted by Carsten Braband
Carsten Braband @cbraband.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
Wie wirken sich Regierungsbeteiligungen auf die Wahlergebnisse linker Parteien aus? Dazu ist vor Kurzem ein Beitrag von mir bei @jacobinmagazin.bsky.social erschienen. Dafür habe ich mir bestehende Forschung sowie die LTW-Ergebnisse der Linken seit 1990 angeschaut. 🧵1/9
3113
Carsten Braband @cbraband.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
Wie wirken sich Regierungsbeteiligungen auf die Wahlergebnisse linker Parteien aus? Dazu ist vor Kurzem ein Beitrag von mir bei @jacobinmagazin.bsky.social erschienen. Dafür habe ich mir bestehende Forschung sowie die LTW-Ergebnisse der Linken seit 1990 angeschaut. 🧵1/9
3113
Reposted by Carsten Braband
Reto Mitteregger @indubioproreto.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
This Sunday, Die Linke could become Berlin’s strongest party for the first time. Importantly, its success in urban centers reflects a broader sociostructural transformation: from a party rooted in the support of production workers to one drawing disproportionate support from the new middle class.
13313
Reposted by Carsten Braband
Reto Mitteregger @indubioproreto.bsky.social · 27/07/2026
New publication out in @epsrjournal.bsky.social! We know young voters vote for different parties and hold different attitudes than older citizens. What we know less about: whether they also care differently about political issues. Using novel experimental survey data, I show: they do! 👇
cambridge.org
“Nothing else matters?” Salience differences between young and old | European Political Science Review | Cambridge Core
“Nothing else matters?” Salience differences between young and old
26326
Reposted by Carsten Braband
Benjamin Braun @benbraun.social · 24/06/2026
Die Koalition will einen Rentenfonds nach 🇸🇪 Vorbild, in den 2% des Lohns fließen. Wie schon bei Lindners Aktienrente (remember him?) greift die progressive Kritik an diesem Element der #rentenreform viel zu kurz. Internationale Evidenz zeigt: Kapitaldeckung = Finanzialisierungsmaschine. 🧵
615574
Reposted by Carsten Braband
Arne Semsrott @arnesemsrott.bsky.social · 02/07/2026
dieser artikel steht stellvertretend für diesen bescheuerten hauptstadt-journalismus: wen interessiert es, wie geschlossen und einig sich alle sind? die frage ist, wer wegen der maßnahmen bluten muss und wer nicht. das ist keine analyse, das ist ein wetterbericht www.tagesschau.de/inland/analy...
tagesschau.de
Koalition stellt Reformpläne vor: Ein staatstragender Auftritt
Geschlossen, fast gelöst präsentiert sich die Koalition bei ihren Reformplänen - nach monatelangem Hin und Her ist nun von Zusammenarbeit und gemeinsamen Lösungen die Rede. Wie tragfähig das ist, wird...
621345398
Reposted by Carsten Braband
Linus Westheuser @lwestheuser.bsky.social · 02/07/2026
Für eine Studie* haben wir gefragt, ob man "wenn nötig große Immobilienkonzerne enteignen sollte, um gegen steigende Mieten vorzugehen". Deutschlandweit stimmte dem die Mehrheit zu (55%). Vergesellschaftung zu verbieten ist ein Schlag ins Gesicht der Bevölkerung, nicht nur der Berliner:innen.
630578
Carsten Braband @cbraband.bsky.social · 21/03/2026
„Profit margins are already near historic highs. Energy and fertiliser stocks are surging in anticipation of stellar profits. The people who own those assets will be fine. Workers facing rising prices and stagnant wages will not.“
045
Reposted by Carsten Braband
Julius Kölzer @juliusk.bsky.social · 11/03/2026
On Sunday, one of Germany’s largest states went to the polls in a closely contested election. What can we learn from the results & how do they relate to looming deindustrialization in one of Germany’s industrial heartlands? A thread with some decriptive patterns from data on 1,101 municipalities. 🧵
812157
Reposted by Carsten Braband
Chris Clarke @warringfictions.bsky.social · 06/03/2026
1/ I have done a data dive on ‘The Two Deprivations’ and the govt’s Green-Reform dilemma: parables.substack.com/p/the-two-de... It references the work of @luketryl.bsky.social @robfordmancs.bsky.social
parables.substack.com
The Two Deprivations
Are poorer constituencies going green of turquoise?
24016
Reposted by Carsten Braband
Kira Renée Kurz @kirareneekurz.bsky.social · 19/02/2026
Yesterday, @spiegel.de reported that members of the SPD urged the CDU to re-evaluate their stance towards the LEFT. Our (@wurthmann.bsky.social & @sarahwagner.bsky.social) reserach note shows generational differences in the evaluation of cooperation between the parties. doi.org/10.1007/s116... A🧵
doi.org
Breaking the German Cold War Taboo? The Generational Divide in Evaluating a Coalition Between CDU/CSU and The Left - Politische Vierteljahresschrift
Germany’s fragmented party system has revived debates about unconventional coalitions, including cooperation between the Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU) and The Left to con...
1346
Reposted by Carsten Braband
Tarik Abou-Chadi @tabouchadi.bsky.social · 23/03/2025
2) Abandoning identity politics Contrary to public beliefs, the centre-left has all but abandoned identity politics. Having become parties of incremental centrism and problem managers they have given up on shaping identities in the knowledge economy. What would a progressive working class identity
1569
Reposted by Carsten Braband
Linus Westheuser @lwestheuser.bsky.social · 04/02/2026
The US is often seen as an extreme case where polarization erodes democracy bc partisanship now permeates all everyday sociability and affects. But this is now being contradicted by a whole number of studies. Besides the really interesting new work by @jonadejong.bsky.social, there is... (quick 🧵)
24116
Reposted by Carsten Braband
Chris Hayes @chrislhayes.bsky.social · 04/02/2026
I think it's best for everyone to understand that the unified class project of billionaires right now is to do to white collar workers what globalization and neoliberalism did to blue collar workers.
228128803409
Reposted by Carsten Braband
Marco Fuchs @marcofuchs74.bsky.social · 03/01/2026
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
48024
Reposted by Carsten Braband
Michael Kagan @michaelgkagan.bsky.social · 03/01/2026
I feel like I haven’t even been properly lied to about the purposes of this war
199222304679
Reposted by Carsten Braband
Janina Dill @janinadill.bsky.social · 03/01/2026
“the principles of international law” rather prohibit bombing countries because their leaders “lack legitimacy”.
211754
Reposted by Carsten Braband
G Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris.com · 20/11/2025
Good morning. I've got a banger new post out today that develops a new method for placing voters on the left-right ideological spectrum, and adds a new, "non-ideological"/affordability axis to usual way we chart & think about US voters (esp swing voters). www.gelliottmorris.com/p/not-just-l...
gelliottmorris.com
Not just left vs right: Most voters think about affordability and material wellbeing, not in ideological terms
Most voters want a party that emphasizes cost of living issues and makes the world a better place. Few Americans think in solidly ideologically terms. "Moderates" are mostly non-ideological.
55672194
Reposted by Carsten Braband
Reto Mitteregger @indubioproreto.bsky.social · 05/11/2025
Crazy support numbers for Zohran Mamdani among young women: 84% (!) of women aged 18-29 voted for Mamdani in the NYC Mayoral Election. But also important: young men voted MUCH MORE STRONGLY (67%) for Mamdani than old men (37%).
511433
Reposted by Carsten Braband
Robert Pausch @bertpsch.bsky.social · 04/10/2025
"Die Mehrheit in diesem Land ist rechts, aber bekommt trotzdem eine linke Politik" – dieser Satz ist also nicht analytisch gemeint, sondern strategisch. Er ist nicht da, um etwas zu beschreiben, sondern um etwas zu planen. www.zeit.de/politik/2025...
zeit.de
CDU-Politiker: Der schwarz-blaue Sehnsuchtssatz
"Die Mehrheit ist rechts, aber bekommt trotzdem linke Politik" – diese Formel wiederholen CDU-Politiker gerade auffällig oft. Dahinter steckt eine gefährliche Strategie.
16278110
Carsten Braband @cbraband.bsky.social · 02/10/2025
Real existierende linke Akademiker:innen mal wieder anders als manche denken: „Radical left support increases for those who study more than their parents and do not achieve upward class mobility, as well as for those who experience upward class mobility but continue to struggle financially“
020
Reposted by Carsten Braband
Maria Sobolewska @profsob.bsky.social · 02/10/2025
An important new paper from my talented, but BlueSky-less PHD Jose Lopes www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
sciencedirect.com
The unfulfilled promises of upward mobility and support for radical left parties in Western Europe
In recent decades, educational expansion has produced a large swathe of university graduates which labour markets are increasingly less able to absorb…
23614
Carsten Braband @cbraband.bsky.social · 30/09/2025
Lesenswert!
0131
Reposted by Carsten Braband
Peter Jelinek @peterjelinek.bsky.social · 18/09/2025
Nur zur Einordnung: Kosten illegaler Grenzkontrollen: pro Quartal ca. 30 Millionen € Kosten durch Jens Spahn verursacht: ca. 3,5 Milliarden € Kosten durch Steuerbetrug CumCum: ca. 30 Milliarden € Zusätzliche Gelder, die wir für das Deutschlandticket gebraucht hätten: 800 Millionen.
622208805
Reposted by Carsten Braband
Linus Westheuser @lwestheuser.bsky.social · 12/09/2025
Warum wir beim Klima zwar alle in einem Boot sitzen, es aber entscheidend ist, dass manche im halbgefluteten Maschinenraum mitfahren und andere auf dem Sonnendeck: Neuer Artikel zu Klima, Klasse und Konflikt, mit @steffenmau.bsky.social und @thomaslux.bsky.social link.springer.com/article/10.1...
link.springer.com
Das Klima der Ungleichheit. Zur sozialen Struktur von Klimakonflikten - Berliner Journal für Soziologie
The article maps how political conflicts over climate change are intertwined with social inequality. Building on studies of Dörre et al. on industrial transformation conflicts, four forms of social in...
515959
Reposted by Carsten Braband
Julius Kölzer @juliusk.bsky.social · 09/08/2025
"Panel data on 41 million voters from 2008 to 2020 and an original survey of 24,433 respondents demonstrate that exposure to partisan neighbors increases party switching." www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.1...
journals.uchicago.edu
Partisan Conversion Through Neighborhood Influence: How Voters Adopt the Partisanship of Their Neighbors | The Journal of Politics
Recent studies show that American neighborhoods have become politically homogeneous, raising concerns about how geographic polarization divides parties and influences voters. But, it remains unclear h...
12010
Reposted by Carsten Braband
Linus Westheuser @lwestheuser.bsky.social · 09/09/2025
OK, a🧵: Our new paper studies workers' political consciousness in times of class demobilization. We show there's more to workers' politics than right-wing resentment. Listening to workers, we reconstruct their moral critiques of money, power & recognition. Link journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...
10350127
Reposted by Carsten Braband
Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte @turnbulldugarte.com · 05/09/2025
The takeaway: 👉 Accommodating the radical right on immigration doesn’t win back voters. 👉 It alienates the progressive base. 👉 And it raises the salience of the very issue the radical right owns. In short: it’s electoral self-harm.
10761286
Reposted by Carsten Braband
Francesco Raffaelli @fraraffaelli.bsky.social · 21/08/2025
✨Very happy to see my paper "Attitudinal ambivalence toward multiculturalism" out on @jeppjournal.bsky.social ! www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.... 1/8 🧵
38038
Carsten Braband @cbraband.bsky.social · 30/08/2025
Kann man Autobahnen eigentlich wieder abreißen?
010
Reposted by Carsten Braband
Daniel Laurison @daniellaurison.bsky.social · 23/08/2025
Class and race gaps in voting are widening a lot. I just got results from the CES and voter turnout among low-income people has been declining steadily since 2012 - across racial groups. Only 25% of Black and Hispanic people in households making less than $30k/year voted in 2024. (small thread)
chart from Stata showing income groups on the X axis, pr(vv1) - which means probability of having cast a vote for president - on the Y axis. There are 4 lines, one for 2012, for 2016, 2020, and 2024. 2024 is by far the steepest, with a 30 point difference in predicted turnout between those earning over $100k and those earning under $30k. 
Below are some of the key data points:
under $30k in 2024 = 38% predicted turnout
2020 = 48%, 2016 = 51%, 2012 = 58%
over $100k in 2024 = 73% predicted turnout
2020 & 2012 also about 73%
2016 = 60%
 
chart from Excel, X axis is year (2012 - 2024) and Y axis is % turnout. 
6 lines: whites in families earning over $100k, white less than $30k, Black over $100k, Black under $30k, Hispanic over $100k, Hispanic under $30k.

All three lines for under $30k trend downward - declining turnout across these 4 elections.

All three over $100k lines are flat-ish, with a dip in 2016 and a rise back up in 2020.

Under $30k Black and Hispanic turnout in 2024 was about 25%, under $30k white turnout about 40%. 

Over $100k white turnout in 2024 was nearly 80%, over $100k Black & Hispanic turnout both about 60%
26124
Reposted by Carsten Braband
Left Coast Reads 📚🌹 @leftcoastreads.bsky.social · 07/08/2025
In the 19th century as the socialist movement grew in Europe, it faced a choice: whether to participate in elections. The anarchists said no. The remaining socialists waded into electoral battle. This book analyzes that decision and its consequences #booksky
The cover of the book Paper Stones: A History of Electoral Socialism is on a background of multiple pages of text from digitally accessed journal articles.
163
Reposted by Carsten Braband
Nils C. Kumkar @nilskumkar.bsky.social · 30/07/2025
Berlin! Am 19. August stelle ich mein neues Buch vor. Wer Fragen hat oder welche sucht oder einfach was klären will: kommt vorbei, das wird super! www.rosalux.de/veranstaltun...
rosalux.de
«Polarisierung. Über die Ordnung der Politik» - Rosa-Luxemburg-Stiftung
«linksbündig»-Buchpremiere. Nils C. Kumkar im Gespräch mit Matthias Ubl
36413
Reposted by Carsten Braband
Simon Otjes @simonotjes.bsky.social · 07/07/2025
What Abou-Chadi et al. show here is not just that conservative migration positions won't help social-democrats to attract voters, but also that left positions on retirement (that is allowing for early retirement) make social-democrats most attractive (and right positions make them less attracitve).
23415
Reposted by Carsten Braband
Tarik Abou-Chadi @tabouchadi.bsky.social · 07/07/2025
New article out in World Politcs. We analyze how different groups react to varying programs of social democratic parties. We find less trade-offs than often assumed. Generally, more left-progressive programs increase support among social democratic potentials muse.jhu.edu/pub/1/articl...
14668252
Reposted by Carsten Braband
Eric Blanc @ericblanc.bsky.social · 25/06/2025
The oligarchy is not invincible www.laborpolitics.com/p/zohrans-hi...
laborpolitics.com
Zohran's Historic Win: 16 Takeaways
The oligarchy is not invincible
1234
Reposted by Carsten Braband
Linus Westheuser @lwestheuser.bsky.social · 25/06/2025
Ich habe gestern beim DGB eine Keynote darüber gehalten, warum das beste Mittel gegen den Rechtsruck eine Erneuerung des demokratischen Klassenkampfs ist. Statt Defensivität braucht es ein vorwärtsgewandtes Projekt zur Vertiefung der sozialen Grundlagen der Demokratie.
0312
Reposted by Carsten Braband
Lukas Scholle @lukasscholle.bsky.social · 27/06/2025
Vorschlag zu Höhe des Mindestlohns von der Kommission: Ab 2026: 13,90 € Ab 2027: 14,60 € Damit dürfte das nächste Wahlversprechen der SPD gebrochen werden, wenn es nicht zu einem politischen Eingriff kommt.
1112615
Reposted by Carsten Braband
Julius Kölzer @juliusk.bsky.social · 27/06/2025
Today, the German Federal Election Officer released data on voting by age and gender for the 2025 election. Contrary to popular belief, AfD support is still not strongest among the youngest voters, but rather among the middle-aged (males). Support is also still much lower in older cohorts. (1/3) 🧵
423893
Reposted by Carsten Braband
Reto Mitteregger @indubioproreto.bsky.social · 27/06/2025
*Register data* results now published for whole Germany: 37% of women under 25 voted for die Linke in the German federal elections in 2025. Also very striking to see that the AfD was the strongest party among *all age groups of men except those older than 60*.
55920
Reposted by Carsten Braband
Julius Kölzer @juliusk.bsky.social · 20/05/2025
How is regional loss of manufacturing jobs linked to populism? In a new paper in @pvs-journal.bsky.social, @mbayerlein.bsky.social, Anne Metten & I find that industrial decline in Germany shapes electoral support for left-wing rather than far-right populist parties. A thread. 🧵👇 shorturl.at/RIjCr
shorturl.at
Industrial Employment and Populism in Germany—Exploring the Effect of Actual and Looming Decline - Politische Vierteljahresschrift
The regional decline of manufacturing employment is frequently linked to the rise of right-wing populism in many Western countries. Surprisingly, contributions that directly examine the relationship b...
418960
Reposted by Carsten Braband
Nils Steiner @nilssteiner.bsky.social · 19/05/2025
In this new article, we study voting for the BSW from a policy space perspective with @gles.bsky.social data. Findings: -BSW voters tend to be left-nationalist -Depending on prior party support, either nationalist or economically left-wing positions predict switching to BSW doi.org/10.1080/0964...
15813
Carsten Braband @cbraband.bsky.social · 26/02/2025
Der Korken aus der Flasche: Was hat den Höhenflug der Linken ausgelöst? Ein 🧵dazu, warum der Einfluss der Brandmauerdebatte selbst und der Rede von Heidi Reichinnek auf den Wahlerfolg der Linken über-, und das Überschreiten der 5%-Hürde in Umfragen unterschätzt wird. (1/xx)
54712
Reposted by Carsten Braband
Peter Egge Langsæther @peterla.bsky.social · 26/02/2025
Very happy to share our new article in JoP @thejop.bsky.social, where we explore how parties forge links with social groups (here: social classes) through different appeals and how citizens respond to such appeals. www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/epdf/10....
86626
Reposted by Carsten Braband
Lukas Haffert @lhaffert.bsky.social · 24/02/2025
Ein Blick auf den Stadt-Land-Gegensatz. Abgebildet für jede Partei ihr nach Bevölkerungsdichte mittlerer Wahlkreis: 50% ihrer Stimmen sind urbaner, 50% ländlicher. AfD im Westen stärker und damit etwas urbaner, BSW ähnlich wie Union (weil Ostdeutsch), Grüne bleiben stark urban, Linke urban wie nie.
211451
Reposted by Carsten Braband
Tarik Abou-Chadi @tabouchadi.bsky.social · 21/02/2025
Some thoughts and pointers on the upcoming German elections on Sunday. Nearly all polling institutes have released final polls in the last days that show a very similar picture. It is nearly certain that the CDU/CSU will come out on top and Friedrich Merz is going to be the next Chancellor. 1/
712750
Reposted by Carsten Braband
Werner Krause @krausewe.bsky.social · 04/02/2025
Aktuell liegen 3 Parteien in den Umfragen an der 5%-Hürde. Doch was bedeutet das für ihre Wahlchancen? Neue Studie mit @christinagahn.bsky.social! Wir zeigen, dass Parteien, die auch nur knapp unter der Sperrklausel liegen, eine signifikant geringere Chance haben, ins Parlament einzuziehen. 1/7
513250