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Ian Mitchell

@ianmitchell1.bsky.social
276 followers 25 following 75 posts

Economist working on international development, climate and trade Co-Director, Europe programme at the Center for Global Development.

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Ian Mitchell @ianmitchell1.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
We think panic from policymakers is a bigger risk than El Niño itself. Includes new analysis of past very strong El Niños which can have big national impacts but historically not global ones
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Center for Global Development @cgdev.org · 01/09/2026
What will a new UK government mean for the future of international development? H.E. Macenje Mazoka, Flora Alexander, and Liz Ditchburn join CGD’s @ianmitchell1.bsky.social to discuss UK aid cuts, shifting priorities, and what comes next under Prime Minister Andy Burnham. go.cgdev.org/4qQZSEf
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Ian Mitchell @ianmitchell1.bsky.social · 16/07/2026
The UK has just published the brutal cuts it will make to country spending plans. In 10 of 17 African partners spend is being cut to a de minimis level. They are home to over 130m people in extreme poverty. The UK is giving up meaningful influence and heading for an all-time low in overseas aid.
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Lee Crawfurd @leecrawfurd.bsky.social · 16/07/2026
The UK gov wants asylum seekers to repay £10k of their accommodation costs. We ran the numbers, gov could raise 3.5x more in tax & lower support costs by asking asylum seekers to work instead (with @helen-dempster.bsky.social & @ianmitchell1.bsky.social) cgdev.org/blog/asking-...
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Ian Mitchell @ianmitchell1.bsky.social · 20/11/2025
How does your country rank on its effort on international development? For over 20 years, we assessed policies. This edition sees an unprecedented drop in efforts, with 24 of 38 countries regressing. But there are neglected areas beyond aid - policymakers and advocates should think more broadly.
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Ian Mitchell @ianmitchell1.bsky.social · 17/07/2025
We're hiring! We're after a recent graduate with quant and comms skills to work with me on ideas for the UK's development policy; and on benchmarking development performance. You need to have the right to work in the UK Full details here: centerforglobaldevelopment.applytojob.com/apply/gIODpv...
centerforglobaldevelopment.applytojob.com
Research Assistant - UK and Development - Center for Global Development - Career Page
Apply to Research Assistant - UK and Development at Center for Global Development in London, London, United Kingdom.
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Ian Mitchell @ianmitchell1.bsky.social · 17/07/2025
New survey: Brits think that the UK's new aid budget is too low. One of many interesting findings in the BFPG survey.
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Ian Mitchell @ianmitchell1.bsky.social · 15/07/2025
The UK Government needs to cut £3bn from its aid budget. But can it also fulfill commitments on greater multilateralism, targeting poverty, and ensuring impact? @samhugh3s.bsky.social and I set three tests on aid allocation that would signify the 'change' promised. www.cgdev.org/blog/how-uk-...
cgdev.org
How the UK Should Focus Its Aid in 2026: Three Tests to Help Ministers Deliver on Commitments and Maximise Impact
The FCDO must cut nearly £3 billion from its aid budget by 2027. Ian Mitchell and Sam Hughes set out three tests to protect impact.
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Charles Kenny @charlesjkenny.bsky.social · 02/04/2025
Very rough and ready estimate of the most affected countries by the new tariffs, apologies for errors. Sources in thread. Cambodia, Vietnam, Nicaragua Guyana all *highly* dependent on exports to US (= to 25%+ GNI), facing tariffs 18-38%.
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Charles Kenny @charlesjkenny.bsky.social · 26/03/2025
New blog by @justsand.bsky.social and me on USAID cuts by country and updated (again) sectoral cuts based on the list that went to Congress today. Ukraine $1.4bn cut. Ethiopia, the DRC, Colombia, South Africa, Palestine, Bangladesh, Kenya, Afghanistan, and Tanzania >$200m
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Justin Sandefur @justsand.bsky.social · 27/03/2025
Make America Great Again by slashing basic health services in the Congo. Hopefully Congress doesn't take these numbers as given.
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Ian Mitchell @ianmitchell1.bsky.social · 26/03/2025
Today's spring statement quietly revealed that the vast majority of the aid cut the PM announced for 2027 will actually happen in 2026. In fact, 2026/27 will see a 27% cut. That is steeper than the Boris Johnson aid cut in 2021. A short thread on the figures:
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The Institute for Fiscal Studies @theifs.bsky.social · 20/03/2025
We are delighted to announce that @helenmiller.bsky.social has been appointed as the next IFS Director, following on from @pjtheeconomist.bsky.social in July 2025. Find out more:
ifs.org.uk
Helen Miller appointed as new Director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies | Institute for Fiscal Studies
The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) is delighted to announce that Helen Miller has been appointed as its next Director.
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Ian Mitchell @ianmitchell1.bsky.social · 19/03/2025
Fascinating this - do Chinese contractors delivering World Bank projects achieve worse outcomes than others? Answer: no. [US and UK contractors also perform around the average but Australian and French ones do less well]
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Ian Mitchell @ianmitchell1.bsky.social · 13/03/2025
New @cgdev.org blog from me on the UK aid cut in 2027 as HM Treasury finalise budgets. Just three points: 1) Many are saying the cut needs a 'glidepath'. But this is misleading - glidepaths are supposed to soften cuts. But in this case, it just means making cuts a year sooner.
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Ian Mitchell @ianmitchell1.bsky.social · 03/03/2025
Incredibly clear thread on the US cuts, and the responsibility Secretary Rubio bears for them
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Ian Mitchell @ianmitchell1.bsky.social · 28/02/2025
At last some courage and leadership from someone in Labour on international development A mid-sized economic power like the UK cannot spend just 0.3% of income on international issues.
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Ian Mitchell @ianmitchell1.bsky.social · 28/02/2025
"Sir Keir Starmer is to take UK overseas aid to its lowest level as a percentage of national income since records began" Great to see the @theguardian.com lead with our @cgdev.org analysis. www.theguardian.com/politics/202...
theguardian.com
Keir Starmer to carry out largest cut to UK overseas aid in history
NGOs accuse prime minister of following US by accepting ‘false choice’ of cutting aid to fund defence
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Ian Mitchell @ianmitchell1.bsky.social · 25/02/2025
Even the PM instinctively understands that aid should be spent overseas - his official statement on the cut refers to "Overseas Development Assistance' (usually "Official" Devt Assistance). Let's hope he stops counting the £4-5bn spent in the UK as aid. www.gov.uk/government/n...
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Ian Mitchell @ianmitchell1.bsky.social · 25/02/2025
UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer just cut the UK aid budget from 0.5% of GNI to 0.3% in 2027 to fund increases in defence spending. He says he’s making tough choices, but cutting funding for the world’s poorest people is the easiest—and cruellest—choice he could make (1/4)
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Center for Global Development @cgdev.org · 11/02/2025
NEW: @ianmitchell1.bsky.social & @samhugh3s.bsky.social find a 1 year US aid freeze could trigger an economic shock of 1% of GNI in 23 economies—with 8 countries, incl. South Sudan, Somalia & Ethiopia, facing a devastating 3%+ hit. Which other countries could step up? www.cgdev.org/blog/which-c...
cgdev.org
Which Countries Are Most Exposed to US Aid Cuts; And What Other Providers Can Do
While it is still unclear how long the current freeze on US foreign aid will last, and when and where it might resume, it seems the US, under the second Trump administration, may be ready to abandon i...
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Ian Mitchell @ianmitchell1.bsky.social · 07/02/2025
20 years ago this week Nelson Mandela told a UK audience that poverty was man-made and could be eradicated. Most think aid should tackle poverty - but with the US stepping back - is the UK actually focussed on that goal? Does it still care? A 5-point thread on our new @cgdev.org blog & analysis:
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Michael Clemens @mclem.org · 04/02/2025
Here is United States law regarding the President's attempts to close our development assistance agency in secret over the weekend. It is illegal. No ambiguity. Americans decide with their actions, today, if the US is a country of laws or—something else. —> crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/...
Can the President Abolish, Move, or Consolidate USAID?
Because Congress established USAID as an independent establishment (defined in 5 U.S.C. 104) within
the executive branch, the President does not have the authority to abolish it; congressional authorization
would be required to abolish, move, or consolidate USAID.
The Secretary of State established USAID as directed by Executive Order 10973, signed on November 3,
1961. The agency was meant to implement components of the Foreign Assistance Act of 1961 (FAA, P.L.
87-195), enacted on September 4, 1961.
Section 1413 of the Foreign Affairs Reform and Restructuring Act of 1998, Division G of P.L. 105-277,
established USAID as an “independent establishment” outside of the State Department (22 U.S.C. 6563).
In that act, Congress provided the President with temporary authority to reorganize the agency (22 U.S.C.
6601). President Clinton retained the status of USAID as an independent entity, and the authority to
reorganize expired in 1999. Congress has not granted the President further authority to abolish, move, or
consolidate USAID since.
Congressional Research Service
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CSAE @oxfordcsae.bsky.social · 04/02/2025
The closing panel at #OxCSAE2025 will be 'Evidence-based Policy: Towards an Improved Research-policy Equilibrium in Africa' 🗣️@scepticalranil.bsky.social, Nompumelelo Nyathi-Mohohlwane, Miriam Laker, Justice Tei Mensah, @olihanney.bsky.social Find out more cvent.me/vbN029 Register cvent.me/grRQBN
closing panel at #OxCSAE2025 will be 'Evidence-based Policy: Towards an Improved Research-policy Equilibrium in Africa'

With photos of Ranil Dissanayake, Justice Tei Mensah, Miriam Laker, Nompumelelo Nyathi-Mohohlwane, & Oliver Hanney
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Terence Wood @terencewoodnz.bsky.social · 03/02/2025
The world's wealthiest man harming the world's poorest people. www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025...
theguardian.com
Senior USAid officials put on leave after denying access to Musk’s Doge team
After standoff, Doge members gained control over access system, letting them lock out workers and read emails
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Ian Mitchell @ianmitchell1.bsky.social · 01/02/2025
Rumours that USAID is being eliminated or integrated. Having the State Department or Ministry of Foreign affairs be responsible for aid is what small counties do, not global superpowers.
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Ian Mitchell @ianmitchell1.bsky.social · 30/01/2025
Very good piece this from Rachel with practical suggestions for a smart US aid review on advancing American interests.
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Center for Global Development @cgdev.org · 22/01/2025
The UK remains one of the largest ever recipients of US aid, thanks to massive post-WWII support.🇺🇸🇬🇧 Roman Napoli, @ianmitchell1.bsky.social & @samhugh3s.bsky.social reflect on the UK-US relationship & draw out lessons on how foreign assistance can help build allies ⬇ www.cgdev.org/blog/special...
cgdev.org
The Special Relationship: A Brief History of US Aid to the UK
As President Trump takes office, we examine the US approach to international partnerships, look at the foundations of the so-called “special relationship” between the US and the UK, and undertake new ...
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Sam Hughes @samhugh3s.bsky.social · 09/01/2025
Our new blog highlights how abnormal is the current Gov's policy of using the limited foreign aid budget to fund support for asylum seekers within the UK. Before 2014, nearly no UK asylum seeker support was funded via aid, even when it faced spikes in applicants similar to today's (eg around 2000).
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Ian Mitchell @ianmitchell1.bsky.social · 08/01/2025
Nearly 30% of UK aid is spent on refugees in the UK. But what happened in past refugee spikes? We find if Blair & Brown had taken the current approach, the UK would have spent zero on overseas aid in some years. A 🧵 on new @cgdev.org analysis w/ @samhugh3s.bsky.social:
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Ian Mitchell @ianmitchell1.bsky.social · 13/12/2024
Extraordinary achievement indeed! Also a case for a multi-country agreement on this
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Archie Hall @archiehall.bsky.social · 12/12/2024
Perversely, Britain now forces a one-to-one tradeoff between one of the most bloated and inefficient bits of government (the asylum system) and one of the most cost-effective (development aid in the poorest countries). My piece in this week's @economist.com: www.economist.com/britain/2024...
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Ian Mitchell @ianmitchell1.bsky.social · 13/12/2024
"Foreign-aid fiddle" Great to see the @economist.com highlight the UK's misuse use of aid (inc some of our @cgdev.org work w/ @samhugh3s.bsky.social ) economist.com/britain/2024...
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Josh Gabbatiss @joshgabbatiss.bsky.social · 05/12/2024
Nations agreed on a target of $300bn/year in climate finance for developing nations by 2035. Sounds like a big number, but it's not as ambitious as it seems... 1⃣ Pre-COP, rich nations were already on track to reach $200bn with "no additional effort". ➡️ buff.ly/49o9iyi
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Ian Mitchell @ianmitchell1.bsky.social · 04/12/2024
Absolutely essential reading for foreign ministers from @charlesjkenny.bsky.social Is it plausible your 10th biggest aid project has a material impact? For most the answer is no. So, focus your efforts in fewer, bigger, less fragmented programmes. www.cgdev.org/blog/tenth-r...
cgdev.org
The Tenth Recipient Test
One of the things that makes development assistance less effective than it might be is fragmentation: many donors providing small amount of assistance to a country, each mission head demanding their p...
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Romesh Vaitilingam @econromesh.bsky.social · 29/11/2024
Developed countries have committed to providing billions in climate finance to offset their contribution to the environmental crisis; but much of this funding is being redirected from existing development assistance, @ianmitchell1.bsky.social www.economicsobservatory.com/how-much-cli...
economicsobservatory.com
How much climate finance should rich nations provide? - Economics Observatory
Developed countries have committed to providing billions in climate finance to offset their contribution to the environmental crisis. But much of this funding is being redirected from existing develop...
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Ian Mitchell @ianmitchell1.bsky.social · 28/11/2024
The UK Government has confirmed it will provide £1.98bn to the World Bank's IDA fund over 3 years. This is a step up, a great use of aid and good news. Still, given IDA aligns perfectly with Labour's mission (inc growth & climate) - it could have been much bolder. A 🧵
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Jonathan Beynon @jonathanbeynon.bsky.social · 24/11/2024
Indeed. It’s insufficient, ill-defined, with no public finance target, no grant equivalent figure, and no refs to additionality or burden sharing. So much for learning lessons of the $100bn goal!
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Ian Mitchell @ianmitchell1.bsky.social · 23/11/2024
My take on the #COP29 climate finance goal (#NCQG); based on our model. It will require barely any additional effort from providers and creates a greater risk of diverting funds from existing development finance @fionaharvey.bsky.social @joshgabbatiss.bsky.social @kenzabryan.bsky.social
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Ian Mitchell @ianmitchell1.bsky.social · 22/11/2024
For those negotiating in Baku on the #NCQG climate finance goal @edwickstead.bsky.social and I have calculated two new scenarios in our @cgdev.bsky.social model of baselines relating to multilateral development banks and the latest negotiating text 1/5
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Ian Mitchell @ianmitchell1.bsky.social · 22/11/2024
The updated text on the new climate goal #NCQG is finally out, suggesting a goal of $250bn per year by 2035. This figure is slightly above our 'no effort' baseline scenario of $222bn (this increased current efforts by inflation and economic growth). Short 🧵
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Matt Collin @mattcollin.bsky.social · 21/11/2024
The anti-business lefties at the Financial Times have called for open beneficial registers in the British Overseas Territories and Crown Dependencies www.ft.com/content/0bb3...
ft.com
The scourge of corporate secrecy
A concerted push towards open-access data is needed to fight dirty money
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