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Andreas Beger

@andybeger.bsky.social
299 followers 381 following 338 posts

Data/political scientist & Consultant. Political risk, forecasting, event data. Democracy is important, war is bad. Live in Estonia 🇪🇪.

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Andreas Beger @andybeger.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Last month there was an arson attack on a defense company here in Tallinn that produces unmanned ground vehicles. Estonia’s equivalent of the FBI has now attributed the attack on Russia’s security services. news.err.ee/1610151220/e...
news.err.ee
Estonia: Russia responsible for arson attack on defense contractor Milrem
Based on ISS intelligence, there are grounds to state with full confidence that the arson attack on the Milrem building in Tallinn on August 15 was an act of sabotage commissioned by Russian special s...
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CosmicRami 🏳️‍🌈🏳️‍⚧️ @rami.spaceaustralia.com · 28/09/2026
Just saw this news now (looks like it is a few days old) arXiv has received private funding -- $17.2M to be distributed across the next 3-5 years to help it establish and transition to an independent not-for-profit. This is good news for the preprint server and open access resources! 🔭🧪
blog.arxiv.org
arXiv receives Multiyear Philanthropic Commitments to Support Its Launch as an Independent Nonprofit
arXiv is pleased to announce that three leading philanthropic organizations have provided multimillion-dollar support for arXiv. These new multiyear…
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Andreas Beger @andybeger.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
😂 this is like the distilled essence of a certain kind of milblogger (Context: a Russian milblogger discussing Ukraine’s recent surprising combat successes said he knew all along what the ingredients for success are, people are stupid for not having listened to him.)
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Jack @jtenroon.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
This is frying me
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Darth Putin @darthputinkgb.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
When Iran starts firing jet powered drones they got from us into Isreal, Donald will act as if no one could have predicted it. He'll probably blame Ukraine for forcing Russia to develop them by not surrendering.
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Kevin Collins @kwcollins.bsky.social · 10/12/2025
Some people have asked what I mean when I talk about the need for anti-corruption reforms. Here are some ideas.
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Piatto Delgatto @piattodelgatto.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
I hadn't seen this. OpenAI basically inadvertently did the premise of Neuromancer.
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Steve Saideman @smsaideman.bsky.social · 25/08/2026
Why can/will Trump engage in a trade war that hurts so many Americans, so many firms, farmers, and sectors? The transmission belt of policy is broken saideman.blogspot.com/2026/08/the-... He simply does not care, and the GOP refuses to make him care.
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jamelle @jamellebouie.net · 24/08/2026
tl;dw: the job of the dem majority over the next two years, should it materialize, is to make life hell for the white house, not find points of cooperation
youtube.com
What Democrats can learn from Mitch McConnell
YouTube video by Takes™ by Jamelle Bouie
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"Online Rent-a-Sage" Bret Devereaux @bretdevereaux.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
I wrote a(nother) thing! This time it is about how no amount of military technical excellence can salvage a situation where political leadership has, in their abject strategic incompetence, demanded the military accomplish an impossible mission. Gift link: foreignpolicy.com/2026/08/21/i...
foreignpolicy.com
The U.S. Is Learning the Wrong Lessons in Iran
Tactical excellence can never salvage strategic incompetence.
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The Onion @theonion.com · 19/08/2026
Trump Unveils New 250-Foot Gilded Catering Container For Presidential Travel theonion.com/trump-unveils-new-250-…
Trump Unveils New 250-Foot Gilded Catering Container For Presidential Travel
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Andreas Beger @andybeger.bsky.social · 10/08/2026
Inspiring read on the implementation of the Voting Rights Act > By the end of that week, they had added 381 African Americans to the rolls, more than the total registered in Dallas County the previous sixty-five years combined. campaign-trails.ghost.io/work-in-prog...
campaign-trails.ghost.io
Work in Progress: Implementing the VRA
Work in Progress is a recurring feature on CAMPAIGN TRAILS, in which I share some of the more interesting materials I’ve uncovered in my book-in-progress on the work of John Doar and the Civil Rights ...
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Lauren French @laurennfrench.bsky.social · 06/08/2026
Energy not the same as before? Need that pick me up? Introducing Endless War from Mike Rogers.
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Justin Baragona @justinbaragona.bsky.social · 22/07/2026
Imagine the round-the-clock outrage -- not just from Fox, but the rest of mainsteam media -- if Biden or Obama placed propagandist words into the mouths of dead soldiers just before their dignified transfer of remains.
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Adam Bonica @adambonica.bsky.social · 18/07/2026
I cross-referenced my database of candidates against credible voter fraud cases. GOP politicians are implicated at 50x–38,000x the general public's rate. Yet even if every American voted with the integrity of a GOP candidate, it still wouldn't come close to justifying making voting one iota harder.
Bar chart titled "Voter fraud among Republican politicians vastly exceeds the public's. That rate is still just 1 in 850." The chart shows that 0.118% of Republican politicians (17 out of 14,442 DIME candidates from 2016–2026) have been credibly implicated in voter fraud. This rate is represented by a tall red bar that dwarfs the microscopic rates for the general electorate, making the politicians' rate 50x to 38,000x higher than the documented rates for everyone else.
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Adam Bonica @adambonica.bsky.social · 18/07/2026
Voter fraud: an individual moves one vote; vanishingly rare Election fraud: a politician rigging votes at scale; literally why Trump is a convicted felon The relative risk to our elections is like taking a Tylenol vs mainlining fentanyl. But, of course, it’s the Tylenol they’re after.
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Gilliam @reddeerranch.bsky.social · 13/07/2026
Vaccines are so effective they created an entire generation of people who think the diseases they prevented weren’t a big deal.
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Dennis Lytton @dennislytton.bsky.social · 29/06/2026
SCOTUS reform in 2029: - expansion - jurisdiction stripping - break them up see @dogsinautumn.bsky.social piece in @liberalcurrents.com Not possible you say? Guardian Council of the SCOTUS Six will fold the same way the House of Lords folded on the Parliament Act 1911 They won't have a choice
liberalcurrents.com
Break Up the Supreme Court
The federal court suffers simultaneously from lawless leadership and chronic understaffing. Let's fix both problems at once.
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David Burbach 🇺🇸 @dburbach.bsky.social · 24/06/2026
Broke: territorial rights by 20,000BC geography Woke: Sorry but that is Pangea erasure Bespoke: Rodinia here, Taiwan belongs to Idaho.
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Andreas Beger @andybeger.bsky.social · 04/06/2026
Hamster wheel mode
Screenshot of a Garmin run activity. Sixteen kilometers of loops in a stadium track, two hours of running totally.
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Alexander Clarkson @aphclarkson.bsky.social · 01/06/2026
This piece by Jack Watling is as good as many of my colleagues are saying it is. And a signal that policymakers in the EU need to start considering how Putin's potential strategic failure could affect Russia's long term trajectory www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/ukra...
foreignaffairs.com
Ukraine Turns the Tide
Why a cease-fire is now a real possibility.
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Malcontent News @malcontentnews.bsky.social · 30/05/2026
Ukrainian forces started a localized tactical offensive south of Novopavlivka in April. We reported the liberation of Iskara and Ivanivka [Dnipropetrovsk] yesterday and the presence of Ukrainian troops in eastern Zelenyi Hai and Tolstoi because Russia released videos. 1/5
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Reconstructionist @unavaleable.bsky.social · 28/05/2026
40 TO 70 PRSM???
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Stan Oklobdzija @stano.bsky.social · 27/05/2026
The economic warfare you want to wage against the GOP is not against its voters, but its elites. Go after their businesses, decertify their nonprofits and go after their media outlets with lawsuits. That's the much softer target.
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John Paul Helveston @jhelvy.bsky.social · 27/05/2026
Esp for use with LLMs - I'm increasingly convinced #quarto is the ideal LLM output. Separating *content* from *format* is so, so useful. www.jhelvy.com/blog/2026-05...
jhelvy.com
The Unreasonable Effectiveness of Quarto – jhelvy.com
Why you should start asking your favorite LLM (cough Claude cough) to produce .qmd files
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Nicholas Grossman @nicholasgrossman.bsky.social · 22/05/2026
Trump is blockading Iran To squeeze Iran's economy While Iran evades US economic sanctions via Binance A crypto exchange founded by Changpeng Zhao Who was in prison for money laundering that bypassed US sanctions Until Trump pardoned him After Binance partnered with Trump's crypto currency company
The Wall Street Journal
World Middle East
Trump Tells Aides to Prepare for Extended Blockade of Iran
https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/trump-tells-aides-to-prepare-for-extended-blockade-of-iran-da3be7a4PRESS RELEASES
Economic Fury Targets Networks Generating Billions for Iran’s Terrorist Regime
May 19, 2026
Action Targets More than 50 Companies, Individuals, and Vessels Generating Revenue for the Regime

US Treasury Department: https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sb0502BBC
Trump pardons Binance founder Changpeng Zhao
23 October 2025
Liv McMahon
Technology reporter

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cly1qrl9l1qoThe Wall Street Journal 
World Middle East
Iran Moved Billions Through Binance to Fund Regime—Continuing Into This Month
Transactions on world’s largest crypto exchange took place despite repeated red flags; Binance says it has ‘zero-tolerance for illicit activity’

May 21, 2026: https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/iran-binance-crypto-military-e755b218
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Steven Beschloss @stevenbeschloss.bsky.social · 19/05/2026
Let’s put it in simple terms. Men and women who attacked our Capitol, injured over 140 police officers and attempted to overthrow the results of a presidential election are going to be paid by Trump’s lackeys for their services on J6 with our tax dollars.
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Andreas Beger @andybeger.bsky.social · 18/05/2026
🔥“The key is that we are enforcing the laws that already exist and are being broken. We are not pursuing mere partisan power or grinding ideological axes, as MAGA has done. […] It is not our fault that Trump and his lackeys decided to commit so many crimes.”
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Maria Popova @popovaprof.bsky.social · 18/05/2026
OMG. To claim that russians are uniquely/deeply fearful of invasion due to their history is to whitewash russian aggression. When will people realize this? Every old European city has been torched/invaded multiple times. Europe managed to build peace. Ru is attacking its neighbour AS WE SPEAK!
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Andreas Beger @andybeger.bsky.social · 18/05/2026
From www.economist.com/graphic-deta...
A chart from the Economist that shows changes in Russian-controlled territory in Ukraine over time, starting from the 2022 invasion to the present. It shows mostly Russian gains, except for the Ukrainian Kherson and Kharkiv offensives in late 2022 and early 2023, and more recently this year, where Russian gains have stalled and even started reversing.
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Lawrence Freedman @ldfreedman.bsky.social · 17/05/2026
Latest post looks at why Putin persist with a failed strategy against Ukraine, and why he needs Russia’s current, struggling offensive to succeed this year (£/free trial), open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/p...?
open.substack.com
Putin and the Cliff-Edge Fallacy
Over the past few weeks there has been a definite shift in the narrative surrounding the Russo-Ukraine War.
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Maria Popova @popovaprof.bsky.social · 13/05/2026
A must-read. It lays out a realist theory of Ukr victory, focused entirely on material power. That the well-known realists aren't jumping on this math but twisting themselves into pretzels arguing that nothing Ukraine or its allies do would help and Ru is destined to win exposes their pro-Ru bias...
thebulwark.com
Let’s Re-Do the Math on Ukraine
The deadly arithmetic of Russian casualties may add up to Putin’s defeat.
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mtsw @mtsw.bsky.social · 13/05/2026
THIS IS WHAT RIGHT WING EVANGELICALS ACTUALLY BELIEVE — "personal relationship with Jesus" translates to an unlimited and unqualified indulgence for wickedness, at least if you're a powerful white man who serves their cult.
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🎃Darin S Pumpkins🎃 @darinself.com · 13/05/2026
I want everyone who had any hand in all this corruption imprisoned. We have lost our republic and Trump is raiding the Treasury for himself and his cronies
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Andreas Beger @andybeger.bsky.social · 12/05/2026
“Virginia’s Democratic majority, and pro-democracy Americans more broadly, should fight rather than acquiesce, using any nonviolent means they can come up with, and see what happens.” open.substack.com/pub/arcdigi/...
open.substack.com
Winning Power in Competitive Authoritarianism
America's Supreme Court and Virginia's state supreme court distorted law to give Republicans unfair electoral advantages, but as Hungary shows, Democrats can still gain power
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The New Republic @newrepublic.com · 11/05/2026
President Trump has once again appeared to doze off on camera in the middle of a White House event, this time, just seconds after he spoke. trib.al/XseCB0A
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Adam Schwarz @adamjschwarz.bsky.social · 09/05/2026
Hungary’s parliament sings “Ode to Joy” — the anthem of Europe — after Péter Magyar is sworn in as prime minister. Hungary is once again a proud member of the European Union.
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Andreas Beger @andybeger.bsky.social · 09/05/2026
Grotesque.
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Lee Drutman @leedrutman.bsky.social · 09/05/2026
"I think that the thing we should all be considering aren’t modest reforms, but a wholesale transformation of our electoral system" - @jamellebouie.net Amen! www.nytimes.com/video/opinio...
nytimes.com
Video: Opinion | Our Elections Are Broken
Black Americans in the South will likely lose most of their federal representation as a result of the Supreme Court’s recent erosion of the Voting Rights Act, the Opinion columnist Jamelle Bouie argue...
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Darth Putin @darthputinkgb.bsky.social · 09/05/2026
There were more Russian vehicles in Kiev than at Moscow #VictoryDay parade. This means we are winning.
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Rick Stengel @rickstengel.bsky.social · 06/05/2026
Can reporters stop using the word deal? It’s an agreement, a settlement, a treaty, an understanding, an MOU etc. Using the word deal is accepting his simple-minded TV game-show framing and contributes to the bogus drama he is trying to create.
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Andy Craig @andycraig.bsky.social · 05/05/2026
I'm inclined to a harsher view, but not so much for parsing blame in hindsight. It's about what lessons have we learned and how are we going to do better next time, which isn't that far off. Which mostly amounts to: we must go much harder on accountability and much bigger on reconstruction reforms.
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Liberal Currents @liberalcurrents.com · 04/05/2026
"The main problem is the usage of single-seat districts as the basis of representing the population in the House. There is no such thing as a set of maps that is fair, competitive, and representative. Gerrymandering is just tweaking a bad system at the margins."
liberalcurrents.com
Lessons from the Redistricting Wars
Gerrymandering is just tweaking a bad system at the margins.
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Matthew Shugart @laderafrutal.bsky.social · 29/04/2026
I’ve been saying for 30+ years that if you value minority representation you shouldn’t rely on paternalistic gerrymanders to achieve it. You need to fight for proportional representation electoral systems at all levels. Could that message finally sink in?
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Timothy Garton Ash @fromtga.bsky.social · 04/05/2026
As we think about 8 May 1945, 2026… www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
theguardian.com
Germany’s military power is on the rise. This time it must be firmly embedded in Europe | Timothy Garton Ash
As Russian aggression continues and Trump’s US threatens Nato, it is even more vital for a unified defence of the continent, says historian and Guardian columnist Timothy Garton Ash
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Andreas Beger @andybeger.bsky.social · 04/05/2026
“[The AI industry has] constructed a sort of financial flywheel, where they subsidize computation-heavy behavior from users, then report back to investors about the soaring product demand and use it to justify the next investment round” davekarpf.beehiiv.com/p/what-sort-...
davekarpf.beehiiv.com
What Sort of AI Bubble Are We In?
Think broadband. Or, potentially, the 2008 housing market.
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Steve Rattner @steverattner.bsky.social · 01/05/2026
Trump’s net worth has nearly tripled in his second term, reaching $6.5 billion. His administration is the most brazenly self-enriching in American history. My @morningjoe-msnow.bsky.social Chart.
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Andreas Beger @andybeger.bsky.social · 01/05/2026
I don’t know anything about judicial politics, but this proposal on the surface seems great to me: Dramatically expand the lower courts, break up the Supreme Court, and instead randomly draw judges to form a SC for each case as needed.
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