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Matthew Shugart

@laderafrutal.bsky.social
3.1K followers 617 following 1.7K posts

Distinguished Professor Emeritus of Political Science, UC Davis. Researching electoral systems, parties, legislatures. 🍑🍊🌻 Orchardist. 🇺🇸 🇮🇱🇺🇦🇹🇼🇰🇷 Zionist and small-d democrat. Blog/links to pubs: fruitsandvotes.wordpress.com

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Matthew Shugart @laderafrutal.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
In all my years in the profession I never received emails out of the blue from people asking me to engage in a phone or video chat about their PhD proposals. I’ve received two in recent weeks. Is this a thing? (These don’t even claim to be potential applicants to UCD.)
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Matthew Shugart @laderafrutal.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
My current thinking on where the Israeli polls and possible government formation outcomes stand. A lot of you won’t like this, but I’m just the messenger! And there is still time for (likely small but potentially significant) shifts before voting. fruitsandvotes.wordpress.com/2026/09/28/i...
fruitsandvotes.wordpress.com
Israel campaign with a month to go
There continues to be little evidence that either bloc can form a majority coalition, and the parliamentary math needed to allow the opposition to form a minority government with the support of Ra&…
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Matthew Shugart @laderafrutal.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
How common is access to data on who has voted throughout an election day? The recent ruling against such access in Israel prompts this question. fruitsandvotes.wordpress.com/2026/09/17/a...
fruitsandvotes.wordpress.com
Availability of voter data on election day
The High Court of Israel today ruled that parties could not use real-time voter data on election day. I wonder how common bans on this practice are in other democracies. Here in California, it is p…
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Matthew Shugart @laderafrutal.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
Colonial habits die hard. This is blatant interference in the election. If it has any effect, it will likely be to strengthen the right. www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_ent...
timesofisrael.com
UK official: Actions of next Israeli government may affect scope of settlement sanctions; Jerusalem’s countersteps ‘not constructive’
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The Jewish Chronicle @jewishchron.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
‘A dark day for British Jews’: Chief Rabbi condemns UK sanctions on West Bank settlements www.thejc.com/news/politic...
thejc.com
‘A dark day for British Jews’: Chief Rabbi condemns UK sanctions on West Bank settlements - The Jewish Chronicle
The JLC claimed the measures ‘does nothing to advance peace, risks harming Jewish life in Britain, and damages the UK's relationship with a vital ally’
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Matthew Shugart @laderafrutal.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
Perhaps the Chief Rabbi understands the threats Jews face better than Miliband does. “Asked about Jews who will feel less safe in synagogue over Rosh Hashanah this weekend, Miliband, who is Jewish, responds: “I don’t go to synagogue.”” He doesn’t care. www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_ent...
timesofisrael.com
UK’s Miliband calls Israeli response to sanctions ‘damaging,’ rejects chief rabbi’s claim that British Jews have been put in danger
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Matthew Shugart @laderafrutal.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
I wrote up a guide to the Israeli process of allocating seats among electoral lists. I have found that most descriptions out there—especially the one on the Knesset page!—gloss over important details, or get things wrong. So here it is, step-by-step. fruitsandvotes.wordpress.com/2026/09/08/i...
fruitsandvotes.wordpress.com
Israel’s ‘Bader-Ofer’ method of allocating seats: Step by step
The Israeli method of seat allocation is essentially D’Hondt divisors for all lists that clear the threshold (currently 3.25% of votes). However, it is referred to in Israel as the Bader–Ofer…
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Dr. Philip J. Howe @drphilipjhowe.bsky.social · 26/08/2026
Today I start teaching this excellent book once again in my Reforming U.S. Democracy class. @sltaylor.bsky.social, @laderafrutal.bsky.social, Lijphart, and Grofman, where's the second edition? @yalepress.bsky.social A Different Democracy share.google/lpYL95lSLUKy...
share.google
A Different Democracy
American democracy differs greatly from other democracies around the world. But is the American way more or less efficacious than comparable democracies in A...
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Matthew Shugart @laderafrutal.bsky.social · 14/08/2026
Very pleased that this is out and that I got to make a small contribution to it. #AgClimAdapt
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Spooky Back From The Dead Lazarus @jlazarus.bsky.social · 13/08/2026
Legislative term limits are a terrible institutional reform that no jurisdiction should ever enact. We have mountains of data published in dozens if not hundreds of studies about what term limits have done where they've been enacted and there's not a single desirable outcome reported in any of them.
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Matthew Shugart @laderafrutal.bsky.social · 11/08/2026
Overview of recent research on RCV in Maine. Not much here to support the claims of the pro-RCV advocates. electionlab.mit.edu/articles/eff...
electionlab.mit.edu
The Effect of Ranked-Choice Voting in Maine | MIT Election Lab
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Chris Hanretty @chanret.bsky.social · 30/07/2026
I think this paper in part reproduces a measure of "intra-party unequal representation" found in "A unified approach to measuring unequal representation" doi.org/10.1007/s111... which very unfortunately is not cited
doi.org
A unified approach to measuring unequal representation - Public Choice
The concept of unequal representation is commonly understood through the lenses of disproportionality and malapportionment, pertaining to inter-party and inter-district aspects, respectively. Popular indices used to measure such features are analyzed separately despite being mathematically identical. District-level wasted votes are not measured in terms of unequal representation, even though they can be conceptualized as intra-district unequal representation. A new component, intra-party unequal representation, which measures unequal representation across districts for voters who support each party, has not been considered to contribute to unequal representation. We propose a unified approach for measuring these components—disproportionality, malapportionment, wasted votes, and intra-party unequal representation—by using $${\alpha }$$ α -divergence. We show mathematically that the total of disproportionality and intra-party unequal representation equals that of malapportionment and wasted votes. We apply this approach to the Japanese political system and demonstrate the role of intra-party unequal representation in sustaining disproportionality in favor of the Liberal Democratic Party.
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Matthew Shugart @laderafrutal.bsky.social · 30/07/2026
#AgClimAdapt How farmers in Germany are adapting to climate change. www.dw.com/en/germany-h...
dw.com
Germany: How weather extremes impact local agriculture
Heat, drought, heavy rain and late frosts are taking a toll on German farmers. They increasingly respond with adapted varieties, new crops, modern breeding techniques and modified farming methods.
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Katharine Hayhoe @katharinehayhoe.com · 29/07/2026
Overnight, a masked bandit broke into our kitchen. Armed with opposable thumbs, he proceeded to sample everything on offer. I’d just visited the farmers market, so the menu was extensive. I can now share a highly specific peer-reviewed list of what this particular raider did & did not enjoy. 🧵
static.klipy.com
Raccoon's Evil Smile: 'Good, Good'
Alt: Raccoon's Evil Smile: 'Good, Good'
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Leonardo Carella @leonardocarella.bsky.social · 28/07/2026
Italy is changing its electoral system (again): the fifth reform since 1993. I wrote for @laderafrutal.bsky.social's Fruits & Votes blog on how the new bonus-adjusted system works, why the government wants it, and its political implications. fruitsandvotes.wordpress.com/2026/07/27/i...
fruitsandvotes.wordpress.com
Italy is changing its electoral system (again)
Nicknamed the “Stabilicum” by the right-wing coalition government that introduced it, this would be the fifth major electoral reform in Italy since 1993.
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Matthew Shugart @laderafrutal.bsky.social · 27/07/2026
There are good proposals for electoral system reform involving MMP and then there is Fiji’s proposal. fruitsandvotes.wordpress.com/2026/07/27/o...
fruitsandvotes.wordpress.com
OLPR vs. MMP in Fiji
When political scientists or election reform activists (at least in Anglo countries) think about electoral systems that they argue have good normative outcomes, the debate often comes down to eithe…
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Matthew Shugart @laderafrutal.bsky.social · 25/07/2026
Tortie. You can see that she has three paws with the typical tortoiseshell coloration and then seems to wear a black stocking on the other. That’s something I never noticed in the six years during which I was feeding her outside. She’s also in her very typical splayed front legs posture.
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Steffen Ganghof @ganghof.bsky.social · 23/07/2026
What is a vote of no confidence, really? A deductive approach and global perspective www.researchgate.net/publication/...
researchgate.net
(PDF) What is a vote of no confidence, really? A deductive approach and global perspective
PDF | This research note explores the conditions under which political procedures for removing the prime minister and cabinet (1) cease to qualify as... | Find, read and cite all the research you need...
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Matthew Shugart @laderafrutal.bsky.social · 23/07/2026
It’s Tisha B’Av. I wrote the linked post two years ago but the themes persist. We get the absurd scenes of the police of the Jewish state arresting Jews for praying on the site of the Jewish temples, the destruction of which Jews mourn today. fruitsandvotes.wordpress.com/2025/08/03/t...
fruitsandvotes.wordpress.com
Tisha b’Av 5784 and the Temple Mount
In the question of whether Jews can visit the Temple Mount, we have a controversy that is significant within the orthodox Jewish world and within Israeli politics, let alone the controversy with re…
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Matthew Shugart @laderafrutal.bsky.social · 23/07/2026
Good explainer, with comparative examples, of how the Knesset election recess is not the same as dissolution in the Westminster sense. en.idi.org.il/articles/651...
en.idi.org.il
The Knesset’s Work During the Election Recess
Everything you need to know about what happens to the Knesset between the end of its summer session and the 2026 elections, scheduled for October 27, 2026.
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Matthew Shugart @laderafrutal.bsky.social · 22/07/2026
How far can we stretch this concept of “primary,” anyway? “Voting in the primary is limited to those in the party’s central committee rather than its full member rolls, and will not include a race for party leader” www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_ent...
timesofisrael.com
Religious Zionism announces candidates for party’s primary
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Matthew Shugart @laderafrutal.bsky.social · 20/07/2026
Good morning from Plainfield where TS Elida has sent us some nice clouds.
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Chris Hanretty @chanret.bsky.social · 15/07/2026
An important read, even if I suspect the main claim (globalization reduces the chances of parties fulfilling promises) is an artefact of increases in the effective number of parties
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Leonardo Carella @leonardocarella.bsky.social · 17/07/2026
🗳️ Electoral Reform Alert 🗳️ Yesterday, the Italian Lower House approved a new electoral reform, now headed to the Senate. This would be the fifth major reform of the electoral system in Italy since 1993, and it could bring an even more radical right-wing party into the next government coalition. (1)
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Heinz Brandenburg @heinzbrandenburg.bsky.social · 17/07/2026
So why does everyone think that 2024 was THE tactical voting election? it wasn't. 2019 was the high point of tactical voting. Using the @britishelectionstudy.com panel data to plot this over the most recent four elections.
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Matthew Shugart @laderafrutal.bsky.social · 15/07/2026
I’m old enough to remember with amazement how fast Congress reversed its foolish decision!
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Matthew Shugart @laderafrutal.bsky.social · 14/07/2026
I added a paragraph to my recent post on the new Palestinian electoral system to make this point: “This could be an over-correction from the former extremely majoritarian system to a new extremely permissive one.” fruitsandvotes.wordpress.com/2026/07/12/p...
fruitsandvotes.wordpress.com
Palestinian legislative elections set (supposedly), and under a highly proportional system
One wonders whether the designers of this new system realized they were making it quite this permissive. This could be an over-correction from the former extremely majoritarian system to a new extr…
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Matthew Shugart @laderafrutal.bsky.social · 13/07/2026
Supposedly there will be Palestinian elections soon. If so (plenty of basis for doubts) they will be under a significantly reformed electoral system. fruitsandvotes.wordpress.com/2026/07/12/p...
fruitsandvotes.wordpress.com
Palestinian legislative elections set (supposedly), and under a highly proportional system
According to the Palestinian WAFA news agency, President Mahmoud Abbas of the Palestinian Authority (PA) has issued a decree setting the election date to the Palestinian Legislative Council (PLC) a…
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Matthew Shugart @laderafrutal.bsky.social · 12/07/2026
List-making time and disagreement within Likud: “Ynet reported that many ministers quietly support the idea of such a committee [to nominate the list rather than a primary], but Likud backbenchers strongly oppose it, fearing they will lose their seats.” www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_ent...
timesofisrael.com
Ahead of Netanyahu meeting, Likud’s Haim Katz denies pushing for internal panel to pick slate
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Matthew Shugart @laderafrutal.bsky.social · 08/07/2026
Absolute classic.
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Matt Glassman @mattglassman312.bsky.social · 03/07/2026
A speculative theory: politics is making people increasingly miserable because typical political participation is now more *national*, more *electoral*, and more *passive* than it used to be, all of which have worse happiness returns-on-investment. blog.mattglassman.net/speculative-...
blog.mattglassman.net
Speculative theory of political participation and happiness
A speculative theory: Current politics is making people increasingly miserable because at a participatory level it has become for many people, on the margin...
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Rahel Freiburghaus @rfrbrghs.bsky.social · 28/06/2026
Based on the excellent chapter by @jmfernandes86.bsky.social / Shomer / @laderafrutal.bsky.social, many visible traces can be found for personalization: ▪️MPs' attributes (e.g., gender, age) ▪️MPs' behavior (strategic parliamentary and extra-parliamentary tools) www.elgaronline.com/edcollchap/b...
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Rahel Freiburghaus @rfrbrghs.bsky.social · 27/06/2026
NEW PUBLICATION!🚨 The 2023 Swiss federal elections were the first ever held under mandatory campaign finance disclosure rules. So how does an open-list PR influence campaign spending? Greater voters' ability to cast preference votes = more money spent onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...
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Matthew Shugart @laderafrutal.bsky.social · 26/06/2026
Terrific interview with Mackenzie Dobson about really interesting research on legislators.
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Matthew Shugart @laderafrutal.bsky.social · 26/06/2026
This is an excellent paper that I recommend highly.
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Matthew Shugart @laderafrutal.bsky.social · 29/05/2026
Wales used a closed-list PR electoral system for the first time. The election occurred during a time of flux in the party system. And despite all that, the outcome fits the Seat Product Model expectations precisely. fruitsandvotes.wordpress.com/2026/05/29/w...
fruitsandvotes.wordpress.com
Wales nails the seat product expectation
The election of the Welsh Senedd on 7 May 2026 was the first held under the new electoral system of closed-list PR. With sixteen districts in a 96-seat assembly, and thus a district magnitude of si…
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Matthew Shugart @laderafrutal.bsky.social · 26/05/2026
Tortie is enjoying her new catio for the first time. Tortie is the longtime outdoor cat we took in just over a year ago. She likes her new indoor life but sometimes shows signs of missing her old outdoors. We are hoping this will give her a bit of the best of both worlds.
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Matthew Shugart @laderafrutal.bsky.social · 24/05/2026
It’s good to have this info but we didn’t really need an RCV scenario to know it’s, as of now, a close call between the two Californians. Does RCV in Pres primaries make sense? My take: fruitsandvotes.wordpress.com/2025/12/30/r...
fruitsandvotes.wordpress.com
‘RCV’ in US presidential primaries?
How would it be an advance if each state awarded all of its delegates to one candidate in a process that starts off with “too many” candidates?
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Matthew Shugart @laderafrutal.bsky.social · 21/05/2026
My take on the performance of the Scottish MMP system in the recent election in light of the extended seat product model, and the question of whether the Greens were a de facto “decoy list.” fruitsandvotes.wordpress.com/2026/05/21/s...
fruitsandvotes.wordpress.com
Scotland 2026: A normal election for its MMP design
The electoral system used for the Scottish Parliament is more restrictive than the Westminster parliamentary electoral system, and recognizing this characteristic is key to understanding the result…
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Mark Copelovitch @mcopelov.bsky.social · 20/05/2026
It's obviously not up there with presidentialism as grave mistakes go, but giving Aaron Nola a 7-year, $172 million contract was also a grave mistake.
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Leonardo Carella @leonardocarella.bsky.social · 16/05/2026
@laderafrutal.bsky.social has a great idea about "act contingencies": to support an electoral reform, politicians must believe that its consequences will be in their favour (outcome contingency), but also that the very fact that they support the reform will yield electoral gains (act contingency).
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Matthew Shugart @laderafrutal.bsky.social · 18/05/2026
I should add my periodic reminder that the Knesset doesn’t actually “dissolve” in the way this is understood in Westminster systems. But it will shorten its own term and set elections earlier than otherwise required. In this case maybe about 7 weeks early. To be announced.
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Matthew Shugart @laderafrutal.bsky.social · 18/05/2026
Lawmakers clear legislative agenda ahead of likely initial reading of bill to dissolve Knesset Wednesday www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_ent...
timesofisrael.com
Lawmakers clear legislative agenda ahead of likely initial reading of bill to dissolve Knesset Wednesday
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Steven S Smith @profstevensmith.bsky.social · 13/05/2026
The "total (election) procedural war" that Trump and Republicans are conducting has roots in McConnell's total (parliamentary) procedural war in the Senate and, before that, in Gingrichism in the House before that. A full generation of the partisan demolition of democratic practices and norms.
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Matthew Shugart @laderafrutal.bsky.social · 11/05/2026
I was once told I pronounce the ayin really well. By a Moroccan Jew. Definitely high praise!
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Stephen Wolf @stephenwolf.bsky.social · 11/05/2026
Alabama’s GOP reacted to pandemic election changes by passing an amendment that 𝘴𝘩𝘰𝘶𝘭𝘥 block new gerrymanders in 2026. I don’t expect AL’s court to do the right thing, but how fitting if it backfires like when Wyoming passed an anti-Obamacare amendment that led its court to overturn an abortion ban
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Chris Terry-Enescu @cjterry.bsky.social · 11/05/2026
The King's Speech is on Wednesday. Keir has a golden opportunity to try and give mirth and frivolity to the nation by trying to continue to deliver it while having a cabinet of five people
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Spooky Back From The Dead Lazarus @jlazarus.bsky.social · 11/05/2026
This is going to start happening more and more unless the Democratic Party gets off its ass and does something.
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Matthew Shugart @laderafrutal.bsky.social · 11/05/2026
Pet peeve. Journalists referring to broadly supported legislation in Israel as “bipartisan.” Yes, Israel famously has a two-party system. www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_ent...
timesofisrael.com
Knesset passes law establishing military tribunal to try Oct. 7 perpetrators
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