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Andreas Beger

@andybeger.bsky.social
300 followers 382 following 338 posts

Data/political scientist & Consultant. Political risk, forecasting, event data. Democracy is important, war is bad. Live in Estonia 🇪🇪.

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Andreas Beger @andybeger.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
And the simple ingredients are: “conduct highly complex and extensively prepared combined arms operations, including EW deconfliction”
How to draw an owl: draw some ovals and rectangles. Draw the rest of the fucking owl. No explanation of the steps in between.
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Andreas Beger @andybeger.bsky.social · 04/06/2026
Hamster wheel mode
Screenshot of a Garmin run activity. Sixteen kilometers of loops in a stadium track, two hours of running totally.
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Andreas Beger @andybeger.bsky.social · 18/05/2026
From www.economist.com/graphic-deta...
A chart from the Economist that shows changes in Russian-controlled territory in Ukraine over time, starting from the 2022 invasion to the present. It shows mostly Russian gains, except for the Ukrainian Kherson and Kharkiv offensives in late 2022 and early 2023, and more recently this year, where Russian gains have stalled and even started reversing.
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Andreas Beger @andybeger.bsky.social · 05/12/2025
The fact that Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine bottoms out FT's new geopolitical mood index really shows how "not with the times" Russia's hostility has been, even amidst the general bleakness of the past decade; worse than 9/11, worse than Gulf War, etc. www.ft.com/content/db32...
A chart that shows Financial Times' new geopolitical mood index from 1982 to the present. It shows a generally decreasing mood over time, specially since around 2018. But Russia's 2022 invasion stands out as the most pessimistic week, more negative than 9/11, the first Gulf War, and any other event before or since.
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Andreas Beger @andybeger.bsky.social · 23/10/2025
So much winning… www.economist.com/interactive/...
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Andreas Beger @andybeger.bsky.social · 12/09/2025
If you want to learn more about how programming languages work under the hood, can't recommend Crafting Interpreters by Robert Nystrom enough. Absolutely stunning and well-done book, and available for free (by the author) online. I just finished the first part on a Java-based tree-walk interpreter.
A screenshot of the landing page for the online version of Crafting Interpreters by Robert Nystrom.
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Andreas Beger @andybeger.bsky.social · 10/09/2025
I'm not a LLM expert, but that seems like a simple and compelling point to me. What I'm less sure about is how much of hallucination is simply due to that. In the blog post they have some metrics, and 25% correct vs 25% wrong vs 50% "I don't know" seems like a stark tradeoff. (2/3)
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Andreas Beger @andybeger.bsky.social · 02/07/2025
And A Different Democracy, which examines US institutions through comparison with other wealthy democracies, illustrating the many ways in which US democracy (such as it is these days) is weird. E.g. the Founding Fathers (TM) were totally wrong on parties, and the US has _a lot_ of veto points.
Book cover for the book A Different Democracy by Steven L. Taylor et al.
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Andreas Beger @andybeger.bsky.social · 02/07/2025
I haven't read this book, but two others I can recommend on the same topic: Breaking the Two-Party Doom Loop, which argues for multi-seat districts + a proportional voting method (e.g. ranked choice or open list PR); notably in the House could be done without changing the Constitution
Book cover for Breaking the Two-Party Doom Loop by Lee Drutman.
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Andreas Beger @andybeger.bsky.social · 04/04/2025
Trump 2025 is crashing the economy like no one since Trump 2017. How on Earth it's possible that business thinks Republicans are good for them is beyond me. From github.com/jhelvy/chart...
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Andreas Beger @andybeger.bsky.social · 14/06/2024
Fantastic short article on Germany’s WW2 guilt and support for Ukraine—the debt is not to Moscow, it is to those who are now victimized by Russia Germany, Russia and my grandmother on.ft.com/3XoqCPB
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Andreas Beger @andybeger.bsky.social · 05/06/2024
Looks like Ukraine now has an attack drone (BULAVA) that can use computer vision / AI for terminal guidance, when the signal to the operator otherwise degrades. From the other place: x.com/wilendhornet...
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Andreas Beger @andybeger.bsky.social · 14/02/2024
"Russia would see a victory in Ukraine as a green light to reshape the European security environment and as part of a broader challenge to Western rules- and value-based principles and order."
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Andreas Beger @andybeger.bsky.social · 14/02/2024
"The sanctions imposed on Russia in connection with the war in Ukraine are inflicting significant damage on the Russian economy. Perhaps the most effective is Russia’s exclusion from international financial markets, which significantly limits its ability to finance its budget expenditures."
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Andreas Beger @andybeger.bsky.social · 14/02/2024
Defense expenditures will reach 6% of GDP for 2024, at the expense of social spending. Optimistic budget forecasts, so probably cuts will be more extensive. Inflation is a problem.
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Andreas Beger @andybeger.bsky.social · 14/02/2024
Predict Russia will have 4.5 million artillery shells for 2024
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Andreas Beger @andybeger.bsky.social · 27/09/2023
One paragraph that stood out, nice way to view the relationship between "black box" models and prediction on one hand, and generalizable theory or basic principles on the other
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Andreas Beger @andybeger.bsky.social · 27/09/2023
Really cool and accessible article on Google Deep Mind's AlphaFold and protein folding, explaining what the problem is and why recent advances are important and impressive. Something I otherwise know nothing about. www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...
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