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Andreas Beger

@andybeger.bsky.social
299 followers 382 following 338 posts

Data/political scientist & Consultant. Political risk, forecasting, event data. Democracy is important, war is bad. Live in Estonia 🇪🇪.

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Reposted by Andreas Beger
Jussi Jalonen @jojalonen.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
Voi käydä niin, että Yhdysvallat irtautuu Israelista. Esivaalit voivat olla siitä jo ensi airut, ja jos ja kun presidentti vaihtuu, suhteet Israeliin eivät ehkä ole enää niin myötämieliset. Siinä kohtaa voikin sitten kysyä, millaisia ratkaisuja Suomi tekee yhden ja toisen liittolaisensa välillä!
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Andreas Beger @andybeger.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
FWIW, I’m half German, part Serb, went through the German education system, later went to Iraq as a US soldier in a war I thought and think was wrong. I understand that for both soldiers and civilians in Russia, their own view and our view of them can be complex.
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Andreas Beger @andybeger.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Last month there was an arson attack on a defense company here in Tallinn that produces unmanned ground vehicles. Estonia’s equivalent of the FBI has now attributed the attack on Russia’s security services. news.err.ee/1610151220/e...
news.err.ee
Estonia: Russia responsible for arson attack on defense contractor Milrem
Based on ISS intelligence, there are grounds to state with full confidence that the arson attack on the Milrem building in Tallinn on August 15 was an act of sabotage commissioned by Russian special s...
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Andreas Beger @andybeger.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Thanks for the gift link. Incredibly disturbing. Also not sure whether this kind of article should be written right now. Do we need to humanize people who support a nasty war of aggression / colonial war in which their country routinely brutalizes civilians?
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Reposted by Andreas Beger
CosmicRami 🏳️‍🌈🏳️‍⚧️ @rami.spaceaustralia.com · 28/09/2026
Just saw this news now (looks like it is a few days old) arXiv has received private funding -- $17.2M to be distributed across the next 3-5 years to help it establish and transition to an independent not-for-profit. This is good news for the preprint server and open access resources! 🔭🧪
blog.arxiv.org
arXiv receives Multiyear Philanthropic Commitments to Support Its Launch as an Independent Nonprofit
arXiv is pleased to announce that three leading philanthropic organizations have provided multimillion-dollar support for arXiv. These new multiyear…
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Andreas Beger @andybeger.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Ok, that was maybe a bit unfair. Anyways, great 🧵 bsky.app/profile/chri...
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Andreas Beger @andybeger.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
And the simple ingredients are: “conduct highly complex and extensively prepared combined arms operations, including EW deconfliction”
How to draw an owl: draw some ovals and rectangles. Draw the rest of the fucking owl. No explanation of the steps in between.
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Andreas Beger @andybeger.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
😂 this is like the distilled essence of a certain kind of milblogger (Context: a Russian milblogger discussing Ukraine’s recent surprising combat successes said he knew all along what the ingredients for success are, people are stupid for not having listened to him.)
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Reposted by Andreas Beger
Jack @jtenroon.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
This is frying me
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Andreas Beger @andybeger.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
Dissolution of the USSR caused your birth, the timeline is clear 🥸
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Andreas Beger @andybeger.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
How old were you when the Soviet Union fell? (Just curious, no ulterior BS motive.)
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Andreas Beger @andybeger.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
Is this driven by supplier political reliability or capabilities that are more suited for Ukraine?
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Reposted by Andreas Beger
Darth Putin @darthputinkgb.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
When Iran starts firing jet powered drones they got from us into Isreal, Donald will act as if no one could have predicted it. He'll probably blame Ukraine for forcing Russia to develop them by not surrendering.
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Andreas Beger @andybeger.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
Instance x of tech person “hey why don’t we have a computer draw objective districts and solve gerrymandering!” missing the point that “objective” is ill defined and it’s a political issue 🫠
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Reposted by Andreas Beger
Kevin Collins @kwcollins.bsky.social · 10/12/2025
Some people have asked what I mean when I talk about the need for anti-corruption reforms. Here are some ideas.
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Andreas Beger @andybeger.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
Bribe Jet 1
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Andreas Beger @andybeger.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
I’ve run small chat LLMs locally and I use other small LLMs locally for work, and they are dramatically slower, like orders of magnitude, and less capable as GP chatbots. Maybe with a beefy GPU you can run something that works for specific things, but that’s quite different from GP frontier models.
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Andreas Beger @andybeger.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
I don’t think you can run models of a size sufficient enough to replicate the hosted Claude/ChatGPT/etc. level locally. And even then, it requires an expensive GPU to work at sufficient speed.
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Andreas Beger @andybeger.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
People were willing to move from subsistence farming to squalid industrial conditions, can’t have been quaint
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Andreas Beger @andybeger.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
@bretdevereaux.bsky.social has a bunch of blog posts on this, but the crux is that subsistence farmers (women) spend an insane amount of time just on textile production, like 4-8 or more hours per day, every day, eg acoup.blog/2025/09/26/c...
acoup.blog
Collections: Life, Work, Death and the Peasant, Part IVd: Spinning Plates
This is the fourth thread of the fourth part of our series (I, II, IIIa, IIIb, IVa, IVb, IVc, IVd,IVe, V) looking at the lives of pre-modern peasant farmers, who make up a majority of all of the hu…
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Reposted by Andreas Beger
Piatto Delgatto @piattodelgatto.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
I hadn't seen this. OpenAI basically inadvertently did the premise of Neuromancer.
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Andreas Beger @andybeger.bsky.social · 28/08/2026
And can anyone tell with confidence that one factor is the primary cause and others are minor causes, or correlational?
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Andreas Beger @andybeger.bsky.social · 28/08/2026
I don’t think that’s factually correct. E.g. where has inequality or globalization (outsourcing, trade etc.) meaningfully decreased? But in any case, I think there is empirical support for some of the things I listed (and also including mobile internet adoption), eg www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
cambridge.org
The Populist Backlash Against Globalization: A Meta-Analysis of the Causal Evidence | British Journal of Political Science | Cambridge Core
The Populist Backlash Against Globalization: A Meta-Analysis of the Causal Evidence - Volume 54 Issue 3
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Andreas Beger @andybeger.bsky.social · 28/08/2026
Yes, but isn’t it also overdetermined? You’ve got multiple other plausible factors at a similar time frame: the 2007 financial crisis, increase in inequality, globalization, increases in immigration/mobility. Which ones are causal vs correlational?
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Reposted by Andreas Beger
Steve Saideman @smsaideman.bsky.social · 25/08/2026
Why can/will Trump engage in a trade war that hurts so many Americans, so many firms, farmers, and sectors? The transmission belt of policy is broken saideman.blogspot.com/2026/08/the-... He simply does not care, and the GOP refuses to make him care.
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Andreas Beger @andybeger.bsky.social · 24/08/2026
MATT БИВЕНС wupps wrong keyboard
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Andreas Beger @andybeger.bsky.social · 24/08/2026
Anyways, lol what a bad article.
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Andreas Beger @andybeger.bsky.social · 24/08/2026
2/3rds might support negotiating a peace, but also majorities oppose giving Russia the rest of Donbas, recognizing Russia’s annexations, or doing so without security guarantees. Supporting peace =/= supporting capitulation to Russia’s demands
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Reposted by Andreas Beger
jamelle @jamellebouie.net · 24/08/2026
tl;dw: the job of the dem majority over the next two years, should it materialize, is to make life hell for the white house, not find points of cooperation
youtube.com
What Democrats can learn from Mitch McConnell
YouTube video by Takes™ by Jamelle Bouie
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Andreas Beger @andybeger.bsky.social · 24/08/2026
What is your boundary for “stayed a while” vs “visited”?
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Reposted by Andreas Beger
"Online Rent-a-Sage" Bret Devereaux @bretdevereaux.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
I wrote a(nother) thing! This time it is about how no amount of military technical excellence can salvage a situation where political leadership has, in their abject strategic incompetence, demanded the military accomplish an impossible mission. Gift link: foreignpolicy.com/2026/08/21/i...
foreignpolicy.com
The U.S. Is Learning the Wrong Lessons in Iran
Tactical excellence can never salvage strategic incompetence.
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Andreas Beger @andybeger.bsky.social · 19/08/2026
Yes, this is why as soon as millions of Eastern Europeans had the chance to vote in fair elections, they voted the commmunists out of power. (And haven’t voted them back into office since…)
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Andreas Beger @andybeger.bsky.social · 19/08/2026
The term is used in two different ways and let’s not confuse them: communism/socialism à la USSR did kill millions and hold back countries; “socialism” à la “we want universal healthcare, get rid of private for profit prisons etc.” is a different and more sensible thing.
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Reposted by Andreas Beger
The Onion @theonion.com · 19/08/2026
Trump Unveils New 250-Foot Gilded Catering Container For Presidential Travel theonion.com/trump-unveils-new-250-…
Trump Unveils New 250-Foot Gilded Catering Container For Presidential Travel
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Andreas Beger @andybeger.bsky.social · 18/08/2026
Every communist country has been authoritarian. Sometimes with concentration camps sometimes without, but all have been authoritarian.
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Andreas Beger @andybeger.bsky.social · 14/08/2026
I think you meant righteous_join() for the pious. All know that sinister_join() is a tool of the warp.
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Andreas Beger @andybeger.bsky.social · 14/08/2026
Infiltrate Lufthansa Change all United codeshare flights from Europe to US so that passengers have title “Herr/Frau Doktor” United doesn’t have German-style title mania, appends “PHD” to everyone’s last names on the tickets instead (FIRST LASTPHD) Names don’t match passports/visas anymore Chaos
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Andreas Beger @andybeger.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
“Although Spee had an easy victory, destroying two enemy armoured cruisers for just three men injured, the engagement also cost him almost half his supply of ammunition, which was irreplaceable.” Wow, this is like the Futurama killbot kill limit strategy.
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Andreas Beger @andybeger.bsky.social · 10/08/2026
Inspiring read on the implementation of the Voting Rights Act > By the end of that week, they had added 381 African Americans to the rolls, more than the total registered in Dallas County the previous sixty-five years combined. campaign-trails.ghost.io/work-in-prog...
campaign-trails.ghost.io
Work in Progress: Implementing the VRA
Work in Progress is a recurring feature on CAMPAIGN TRAILS, in which I share some of the more interesting materials I’ve uncovered in my book-in-progress on the work of John Doar and the Civil Rights ...
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Reposted by Andreas Beger
Lauren French @laurennfrench.bsky.social · 06/08/2026
Energy not the same as before? Need that pick me up? Introducing Endless War from Mike Rogers.
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Andreas Beger @andybeger.bsky.social · 03/08/2026
Probably a bit more historical than you mean, but medieval peasants spent about as much time spinning and weaving as subsistence farming acoup.blog/2025/09/26/c...
acoup.blog
Collections: Life, Work, Death and the Peasant, Part IVd: Spinning Plates
This is the fourth thread of the fourth part of our series (I, II, IIIa, IIIb, IVa, IVb, IVc, IVd,IVe, V) looking at the lives of pre-modern peasant farmers, who make up a majority of all of the hu…
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Andreas Beger @andybeger.bsky.social · 29/07/2026
Rare Earth Minerals Age
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Reposted by Andreas Beger
Justin Baragona @justinbaragona.bsky.social · 22/07/2026
Imagine the round-the-clock outrage -- not just from Fox, but the rest of mainsteam media -- if Biden or Obama placed propagandist words into the mouths of dead soldiers just before their dignified transfer of remains.
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Andreas Beger @andybeger.bsky.social · 21/07/2026
More like “Stiflingly hot and humid ports”
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Adam Bonica @adambonica.bsky.social · 18/07/2026
I cross-referenced my database of candidates against credible voter fraud cases. GOP politicians are implicated at 50x–38,000x the general public's rate. Yet even if every American voted with the integrity of a GOP candidate, it still wouldn't come close to justifying making voting one iota harder.
Bar chart titled "Voter fraud among Republican politicians vastly exceeds the public's. That rate is still just 1 in 850." The chart shows that 0.118% of Republican politicians (17 out of 14,442 DIME candidates from 2016–2026) have been credibly implicated in voter fraud. This rate is represented by a tall red bar that dwarfs the microscopic rates for the general electorate, making the politicians' rate 50x to 38,000x higher than the documented rates for everyone else.
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Reposted by Andreas Beger
Adam Bonica @adambonica.bsky.social · 18/07/2026
Voter fraud: an individual moves one vote; vanishingly rare Election fraud: a politician rigging votes at scale; literally why Trump is a convicted felon The relative risk to our elections is like taking a Tylenol vs mainlining fentanyl. But, of course, it’s the Tylenol they’re after.
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Andreas Beger @andybeger.bsky.social · 16/07/2026
Probably just easier to think of options that largely leave the structure intact but add or tweak things, than to consider options that change the structure itself. Same with all the weird ideas related to primaries (vs…just get rid of them).
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Andreas Beger @andybeger.bsky.social · 16/07/2026
I wish people would stop coming up with crackpot solutions for US political problems. Just look at what works in other democracies. We have the evidence. Look to comparativists, not lawyers.
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Gilliam @reddeerranch.bsky.social · 13/07/2026
Vaccines are so effective they created an entire generation of people who think the diseases they prevented weren’t a big deal.
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Andreas Beger @andybeger.bsky.social · 12/07/2026
I grew up there. Only one of my parents is German. I get it.
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