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wapoliticalyapper.bsky.social

@wapoliticalyapper.bsky.social
78 followers 80 following 347 posts

Leftist from WA. Queer AF. Every couple years I find myself unable to resist yapping about elections and politics. Looks like 2026 is not the year for that to change.

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wapoliticalyapper.bsky.social @wapoliticalyapper.bsky.social · 3h
because it's worse than 2022 by 1 point vs worse for the GOP by 4; like for this to be as bad as 2022 the GOP would have to net most of the undecideds
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wapoliticalyapper.bsky.social @wapoliticalyapper.bsky.social · 3h
I'm more thinking 35 is smack-dab between 29 and 39 (a little closer to 39 obviously). Overall I just think it's pretty reasonable if hispanic support ends up being somewhere in-between 2018 and 2022 - the kind of multi-cycle decay in dem support isn't going to just snap back completely at once
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wapoliticalyapper.bsky.social @wapoliticalyapper.bsky.social · 3h
Meant to reply to like two posts up lol but yeah
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wapoliticalyapper.bsky.social @wapoliticalyapper.bsky.social · 3h
Yeah people have been getting a bit complacent in their dreams of hispanic reversion but also this result seems in-between 2022 and 2018 no? 2022 was 60-39 and 2018 69-29. Undecideds and MoE suggest it's a little premature to conclude too much from this poll
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Opinion Haver @asinmarx.bsky.social · 4h
This is actually a pretty disappointing poll, ngl. NBC/Telemundo's 2024 GCB poll was D+12 and their presidential poll was D+14. If this poll is right, it suggests that Latinos aren't swinging more strongly against Trump. The 2020-2024 realignment "stuck" in other words.
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Polling USA @usapolling.bsky.social · 8h
Maine - 2nd House Polling: House: 🔵Dunlap: 50% 🔴LePage: 48% (Model result: DEM 51% - GOP 49%) Senate: 🔴Collins: 53% 🔵Jackson: 43% (For context: Trump won the second with 53.5% - Harris at 44.5%) unitedstatespolling.com/p/democrats-...
unitedstatespolling.com
Democrats Surge as Republicans Enter the Final Stretch
Republicans still have time to shift the trajectory, but the latest numbers show Democrats continuing to move forward
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ashley (birthday month) 🕸️ @clearlyashley.bsky.social · 8h
it’s deeply important that paul lepage loses because he is grotesque to look at and also listen to
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Schnorkles O'Bork @schnorkles.bsky.social · 10h
I'm just gonna say triaging Georgia and NC and pouring money and time into South Carolina does not suggest that the bluesky doomed wisdom of all the lolls are wrong is correct to me, a talking cartoon plane.
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BeshearStan @beshearstan.bsky.social · 10h
Annie Andrews is the quintessential Normie Lib. If she wins in a upset in South Carolina, conservatives will lose their minds for 6 years
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Stephen Wolf @stephenwolf.bsky.social · 10h
New York Times/Siena polls find Dems gaining the governors offices in Alaska, Iowa, Texas, and Ohio. That would give Dems control over election admin in Alaska and Texas. It’s a sign that Dems could also win for secretary of state in Iowa and Ohio in this environment www.nytimes.com/2026/10/04/u...
Chart of Siena poll results in five governor's races, showing each candidate's estimated support with margin-of-error bars. Democrats lead in Iowa (Sand 52%, Lahn 41%), Alaska (Kreiss-Tomkins 52, Wilson 48), Texas (Hinojosa 49, Abbott 46) and Ohio (Acton 49, Ramaswamy 45). The Republican leads in Kansas (Masterson 49, Holscher 44)
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Eric Michael Garcia @ericmgarcia.bsky.social · 12h
New NBC News/Telemundo poll on Latino voters 69% disapprove of Trump A greater share of Latino voters hold negative views of the Republican Party than at any time since 2016. 59% of Latinos prefer Democrats on the generic ballot. 74% disapprove of him on economy www.nbcnews.com/politics/202...
nbcnews.com
Poll: Latino voters swing away from Trump and Republicans
Democrats have a significant lead among Latino voters in 2026 amid economic concerns, according to the NBC News/Telemundo poll, though the GOP has made some long-term gains.
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wapoliticalyapper.bsky.social @wapoliticalyapper.bsky.social · 20h
Is there any reason beyond one poll to believe the dem is actually in danger, cuz I feel like this is the 4th or 5th oregon gubernatorial election in a row where everyone's doomed and then the dem did fine
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Mary Peltola @marypeltola.com · 03/10/2026
Alaska, we can win this.
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Catherine Rampell @crampell.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
In Springfield, OH, nearly 1,400 workers were laid off at truck factory just days before Trump rally. Layoffs were large enough to basically erase an entire year of job growth in the greater Dayton, Ohio, area. apnews.com/article/trum...
apnews.com
A gut punch in Ohio: Nearly 1,400 laid off at truck factory just days before Trump rally
President Donald Trump is trying to rally voters in the Dayton, Ohio, area on Saturday. But days ago, 1,400 workers were laid off from a truck factory there.
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wapoliticalyapper.bsky.social @wapoliticalyapper.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
ok that would certainly explain why the margin keeps narrowing haha this is extraordinary stuff I love it, I hope Scott loses for the shock alone
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wapoliticalyapper.bsky.social @wapoliticalyapper.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
Janoo has a TON of upsides in this race - she's down 3 when no one knows who she is! Almost the entire gap is people "possibly" voting for Scott! 7.6% DK/DR! And Janoo is only just now running TV ads! Everyone knows who Scott is, all Janoo has to do is define herself positively
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wapoliticalyapper.bsky.social @wapoliticalyapper.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
what do you mean Scott is now only up 3 in that statenavigate VT poll with 853 weighted responses
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The Downballot @the-downballot.com · 03/10/2026
More details on this poll: Pollster: Impact Research Field dates: Sept. 28 – Oct. 1 Sample size: 500 LVs #WI01 voted Trump+5 in 2024 but Steil won by 10 against a touted Dem recruit.
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the abbot of unreason (an archaeologist) @merovingians.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
like!
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ashley (birthday month) 🕸️ @clearlyashley.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
it’s Wraps for paxton
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Magenta @magentab.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
this is obv emblematic of a flawed campaign strategy bc 1. most people don't care about this 2. husted is just not establishing a positive case for himself 3. husted is not going to change ohioans' opinions of sherrod brown atp barring an actual scandal
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BeshearStan @beshearstan.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
So according to NYT Siena, Susan Collins wins again while Greg Abbott loses re-election. Count me super skeptical, but it'd be super funny if that happened
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ashley (birthday month) 🕸️ @clearlyashley.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
LOL
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Taniel @taniel.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
GOP ads right now are all about attacking trans people. Over, and over, and over. I was a gay teen in 2004 watching the Bush campaign try to win on attacking gay marriage, but the resort to this hate drive in campaign ads feels so dialed up now. I can’t imagine being an lgbt kid watching tv today.
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Political Poll Bot @pollresults.org · 03/10/2026
Nonpartisan polls since labor day in Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Ohio, and Texas Alaska: D+7 D+6 D+4 Even Iowa: D+8 D+4 D+2 D+2 R+1 R+2 Kansas: D+2 D+1 Even Ohio: D+8 D+5 D+4 D+3 D+3 D+1 Even Texas: D+6 D+6 D+6 D+5 D+5 D+3 D+2 D+2 D+2 D+1
Strong polling for Democrats in states Trump won easily
Nonpartisan polls since Labor Day show Democrats ahead or within striking distance in five states President Trump carried by double digits. Our latest polls are highlighted.

Alaska
Mary Peltola (D) vs. Dan Sullivan (R)

New York Times/Siena University
Peltola +7
Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research
Peltola +6
Alaska Survey Research
Peltola +4
Quantus Insights
Even
Iowa
Josh Turek (D) vs. Ashley Hinson (R)

Marist University
Turek +8
YouGov
Turek +4
Fox News
Turek +2
InsiderAdvantage
Turek +2
New York Times/Siena University
Hinson +1
Quantus Insights
Hinson +2
Kansas
Adam Hamilton (D) vs. Roger Marshall (R)

Wedgewood Polls
Hamilton +2
Emerson College
Hamilton +1
New York Times/Siena University
Even
Ohio
Sherrod Brown (D) vs. Jon Husted (R)

Marist University
Brown +8
InsiderAdvantage
Brown +5
Big Data Poll
Brown +4
New York Times/Siena University
Brown +3
Suffolk University
Brown +3
InsiderAdvantage
Brown +1
Quantus Insights
Even
Texas
James Talarico (D) vs. Ken Paxton (R)

Marist University
Talarico +6
New York Times/Siena University
Talarico +6
ReconMR/Siena
Talarico +6
Slingshot Strategies
Talarico +5
SoCal Strategies
Talarico +5
Telemundo
Talarico +3
Big Data Poll
Talarico +2
Fox News
Talarico +2
InsiderAdvantage
Talarico +2
Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center
Talarico +1
Emerson College
Talarico +1
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Taniel @taniel.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
The NYT dropped 5 major Senate polls this morning — and they tell you exactly why the GOP is freaking out about the Senate. Alaska: Peltola up 50/43 Texas: Talarico up 51/45 Ohio: Brown up 49/46 Kansas: a 45/45 tie Iowa: Hinson up 48/47.
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wapoliticalyapper.bsky.social @wapoliticalyapper.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
I used to live in Matt Shea's district. Can't say I was ever surprised tbh, the Idaho panhandle nutjobs really seep in
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Dj @djsoke.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
mini AK primary thread: 2026's primary saw a large D turnout edge a la 2024, but different under the hood This year, the TO gap was super weighted to younger voters. How much higher Dem 18-24 TO was vs Rs in... 2024 - 1.3% 2026 - 12.4% The TO gap among 65+ voters shrank!
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ashley (birthday month) 🕸️ @clearlyashley.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
I think it’s so disrespectful to voters for a candidate not to put together a solid policy platform and/or not list that on their campaign website
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ashley (birthday month) 🕸️ @clearlyashley.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
this continues to be wild.
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ashley (birthday month) 🕸️ @clearlyashley.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Trafalgar has Hamilton up in Kansas? I understand why NC was triaged
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wapoliticalyapper.bsky.social @wapoliticalyapper.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
TRAFALGAR WHAT
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Political Poll Bot @pollresults.org · 02/10/2026
Kansas US Senate Sep 29 - Oct 1, 2026 Adam Hamilton (D) 44.4% (+0.9%) Roger Marshall (R) 43.5% Don't know 10.1% David Graham (L) 2% Trafalgar Group (B) 1095 LV Partisan pollster (R) View Poll
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David Crowley Stan @fanofsheldon.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Found a poll that was too insane for chriswithans to comment on fully
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Collins Watch @collinswatch.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
NEW: Susan Collins team bragging in its canvassing materials about her having "delivered" the conservative Supreme Court majority that overturned Roe. tinyurl.com/3mxnybe7 #MEpolitics
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Daniel Donner @donnermaps.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
There's a record 44 Republican-held open House seats this cycle. Half are because the incumbent is running for a different office or seat. The previous high point was 41 in 2018. docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
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ashley (birthday month) 🕸️ @clearlyashley.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
trump drop by a university of kentucky game I’m trying to see something
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Cameron 🇺🇸🗽🦅 @cameroncorduroy.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
er, i don't think so?
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David Crowley Stan @fanofsheldon.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Rs are giving up on Trump-won heavily Latino NJ-9. Not really unexpected since I think Sherrill won it by 20, but notable
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wapoliticalyapper.bsky.social @wapoliticalyapper.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Anyway I'm donating some $, looks like it would go a long way to her campaign given the fundraising figures both candidates are listed with in that same article
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wapoliticalyapper.bsky.social @wapoliticalyapper.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Apparently Janoo's campaign bought their first TV ad on Tuesday - within the MoE in several polls without any television advertising! I think there's a decent shot for a flip here (Source: www.sevendaysvt.com/news/janoo-o... )
sevendaysvt.com
Janoo Outraised Gov. Scott in September, Disclosures Show | Seven Days
The filings lend credence to recent polling that suggests this year's governor's race is the most competitive in a decade.
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wapoliticalyapper.bsky.social @wapoliticalyapper.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Holy shit Janoo only started paying for television ads 3 days ago? And she's within the MoE in several polls??? Yeah there's a serious potential upset here (source: www.sevendaysvt.com/news/janoo-o... "Janoo’s camp ... on September 29 — her campaign’s first foray into television ads")
sevendaysvt.com
Janoo Outraised Gov. Scott in September, Disclosures Show | Seven Days
The filings lend credence to recent polling that suggests this year's governor's race is the most competitive in a decade.
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Polling USA @usapolling.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Kentucky - 6th House Polling - (Trump +15 District): 🔵Dembo: 42% 🔴Alvarado: 37% ⚪️Others: 11% 🔵Dembo: 46% 🔴Alvarado: 43% GQR / Sept 30, 2026 (Dembo Internal) (Current model result in KY-6 is: GOP 51% - DEM 48%) unitedstatespolling.com/p/republican...
unitedstatespolling.com
Republicans Are in Full Midterm Panic
Democrats continue their march toward a historic House majority as Trump’s approval sinks further
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ashley (birthday month) 🕸️ @clearlyashley.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
this is nuts
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Uncrewed @uncrewed.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Despite Kansas's #HD41 backing Trump by 17 points, the Republicans have effectively conceded it. Why? A strong Democrat (former State Senator Jeff Pittman) and a Republican accused of abusing her children. The House GOP cut her loose last month. SLEW RATING: Likely D (FLIP)
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Eric Michael Garcia @ericmgarcia.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
NEW RASMUSSEN #IASen Josh Turek 47% Ashley Hinson 43% www.rasmussenreports.com/public_conte...
rasmussenreports.com
Election 2026: Iowa Senate
Democrat state Rep. Josh Turek maintains a four-point lead over U.S. Rep. Ashley Hinson in the race to fill the Iowa Senate seat vacated by the retirement of Republican Sen. Joni Ernst.
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ashley (birthday month) 🕸️ @clearlyashley.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
I’m thanking God he didn’t mention “transgender surgeries for children” in this
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Josh Turek @joshturek4iowa.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
BREAKING: A new poll from Rasmussen shows our campaign leading by 4 points! This proves what we already knew. Iowans are sick and tired of corrupt D.C. politicians like Ashley Hinson. In 32 days, Iowans will vote for change.
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David Crowley Stan @fanofsheldon.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
And he’s at 58% approval, so I doubt he loses in the end. Will be semi close tho!
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