wapoliticalyapper.bsky.social @wapoliticalyapper.bsky.social · 3hbecause it's worse than 2022 by 1 point vs worse for the GOP by 4; like for this to be as bad as 2022 the GOP would have to net most of the undecideds 100
wapoliticalyapper.bsky.social @wapoliticalyapper.bsky.social · 3hI'm more thinking 35 is smack-dab between 29 and 39 (a little closer to 39 obviously). Overall I just think it's pretty reasonable if hispanic support ends up being somewhere in-between 2018 and 2022 - the kind of multi-cycle decay in dem support isn't going to just snap back completely at once 100
wapoliticalyapper.bsky.social @wapoliticalyapper.bsky.social · 3hMeant to reply to like two posts up lol but yeah 000
wapoliticalyapper.bsky.social @wapoliticalyapper.bsky.social · 3hYeah people have been getting a bit complacent in their dreams of hispanic reversion but also this result seems in-between 2022 and 2018 no? 2022 was 60-39 and 2018 69-29. Undecideds and MoE suggest it's a little premature to conclude too much from this poll 210
Reposted by @wapoliticalyapper.bsky.socialOpinion Haver @asinmarx.bsky.social · 4hThis is actually a pretty disappointing poll, ngl. NBC/Telemundo's 2024 GCB poll was D+12 and their presidential poll was D+14. If this poll is right, it suggests that Latinos aren't swinging more strongly against Trump. The 2020-2024 realignment "stuck" in other words. 5134
Reposted by @wapoliticalyapper.bsky.socialPolling USA @usapolling.bsky.social · 8hMaine - 2nd House Polling: House: 🔵Dunlap: 50% 🔴LePage: 48% (Model result: DEM 51% - GOP 49%) Senate: 🔴Collins: 53% 🔵Jackson: 43% (For context: Trump won the second with 53.5% - Harris at 44.5%) unitedstatespolling.com/p/democrats-...unitedstatespolling.comDemocrats Surge as Republicans Enter the Final StretchRepublicans still have time to shift the trajectory, but the latest numbers show Democrats continuing to move forward 63610
Reposted by @wapoliticalyapper.bsky.socialashley (birthday month) 🕸️ @clearlyashley.bsky.social · 8hit’s deeply important that paul lepage loses because he is grotesque to look at and also listen to 1263
Reposted by @wapoliticalyapper.bsky.socialSchnorkles O'Bork @schnorkles.bsky.social · 10hI'm just gonna say triaging Georgia and NC and pouring money and time into South Carolina does not suggest that the bluesky doomed wisdom of all the lolls are wrong is correct to me, a talking cartoon plane. 719625
Reposted by @wapoliticalyapper.bsky.socialBeshearStan @beshearstan.bsky.social · 10hAnnie Andrews is the quintessential Normie Lib. If she wins in a upset in South Carolina, conservatives will lose their minds for 6 years 1332
Reposted by @wapoliticalyapper.bsky.socialStephen Wolf @stephenwolf.bsky.social · 10hNew York Times/Siena polls find Dems gaining the governors offices in Alaska, Iowa, Texas, and Ohio. That would give Dems control over election admin in Alaska and Texas. It’s a sign that Dems could also win for secretary of state in Iowa and Ohio in this environment www.nytimes.com/2026/10/04/u... 924058
Reposted by @wapoliticalyapper.bsky.socialEric Michael Garcia @ericmgarcia.bsky.social · 12hNew NBC News/Telemundo poll on Latino voters 69% disapprove of Trump A greater share of Latino voters hold negative views of the Republican Party than at any time since 2016. 59% of Latinos prefer Democrats on the generic ballot. 74% disapprove of him on economy www.nbcnews.com/politics/202...nbcnews.comPoll: Latino voters swing away from Trump and RepublicansDemocrats have a significant lead among Latino voters in 2026 amid economic concerns, according to the NBC News/Telemundo poll, though the GOP has made some long-term gains. 1110926
wapoliticalyapper.bsky.social @wapoliticalyapper.bsky.social · 20hIs there any reason beyond one poll to believe the dem is actually in danger, cuz I feel like this is the 4th or 5th oregon gubernatorial election in a row where everyone's doomed and then the dem did fine 120
Reposted by @wapoliticalyapper.bsky.socialMary Peltola @marypeltola.com · 03/10/2026Alaska, we can win this. 825491
Reposted by @wapoliticalyapper.bsky.socialCatherine Rampell @crampell.bsky.social · 03/10/2026In Springfield, OH, nearly 1,400 workers were laid off at truck factory just days before Trump rally. Layoffs were large enough to basically erase an entire year of job growth in the greater Dayton, Ohio, area. apnews.com/article/trum...apnews.comA gut punch in Ohio: Nearly 1,400 laid off at truck factory just days before Trump rallyPresident Donald Trump is trying to rally voters in the Dayton, Ohio, area on Saturday. But days ago, 1,400 workers were laid off from a truck factory there. 97881342
wapoliticalyapper.bsky.social @wapoliticalyapper.bsky.social · 03/10/2026ok that would certainly explain why the margin keeps narrowing haha this is extraordinary stuff I love it, I hope Scott loses for the shock alone 110
wapoliticalyapper.bsky.social @wapoliticalyapper.bsky.social · 03/10/2026Janoo has a TON of upsides in this race - she's down 3 when no one knows who she is! Almost the entire gap is people "possibly" voting for Scott! 7.6% DK/DR! And Janoo is only just now running TV ads! Everyone knows who Scott is, all Janoo has to do is define herself positively 000
wapoliticalyapper.bsky.social @wapoliticalyapper.bsky.social · 03/10/2026what do you mean Scott is now only up 3 in that statenavigate VT poll with 853 weighted responses 220
Reposted by @wapoliticalyapper.bsky.socialThe Downballot @the-downballot.com · 03/10/2026More details on this poll: Pollster: Impact Research Field dates: Sept. 28 – Oct. 1 Sample size: 500 LVs #WI01 voted Trump+5 in 2024 but Steil won by 10 against a touted Dem recruit. 45910
Reposted by @wapoliticalyapper.bsky.socialthe abbot of unreason (an archaeologist) @merovingians.bsky.social · 03/10/2026like! 1124821
Reposted by @wapoliticalyapper.bsky.socialashley (birthday month) 🕸️ @clearlyashley.bsky.social · 03/10/2026it’s Wraps for paxton 5523
Reposted by @wapoliticalyapper.bsky.socialMagenta @magentab.bsky.social · 03/10/2026this is obv emblematic of a flawed campaign strategy bc 1. most people don't care about this 2. husted is just not establishing a positive case for himself 3. husted is not going to change ohioans' opinions of sherrod brown atp barring an actual scandal 2251
Reposted by @wapoliticalyapper.bsky.socialBeshearStan @beshearstan.bsky.social · 03/10/2026So according to NYT Siena, Susan Collins wins again while Greg Abbott loses re-election. Count me super skeptical, but it'd be super funny if that happened 1222
Reposted by @wapoliticalyapper.bsky.socialashley (birthday month) 🕸️ @clearlyashley.bsky.social · 03/10/2026LOL 2424
Reposted by @wapoliticalyapper.bsky.socialTaniel @taniel.bsky.social · 03/10/2026GOP ads right now are all about attacking trans people. Over, and over, and over. I was a gay teen in 2004 watching the Bush campaign try to win on attacking gay marriage, but the resort to this hate drive in campaign ads feels so dialed up now. I can’t imagine being an lgbt kid watching tv today. 652291463
Reposted by @wapoliticalyapper.bsky.socialPolitical Poll Bot @pollresults.org · 03/10/2026Nonpartisan polls since labor day in Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Ohio, and Texas Alaska: D+7 D+6 D+4 Even Iowa: D+8 D+4 D+2 D+2 R+1 R+2 Kansas: D+2 D+1 Even Ohio: D+8 D+5 D+4 D+3 D+3 D+1 Even Texas: D+6 D+6 D+6 D+5 D+5 D+3 D+2 D+2 D+2 D+1 15011
Reposted by @wapoliticalyapper.bsky.socialTaniel @taniel.bsky.social · 03/10/2026The NYT dropped 5 major Senate polls this morning — and they tell you exactly why the GOP is freaking out about the Senate. Alaska: Peltola up 50/43 Texas: Talarico up 51/45 Ohio: Brown up 49/46 Kansas: a 45/45 tie Iowa: Hinson up 48/47. 401446310
wapoliticalyapper.bsky.social @wapoliticalyapper.bsky.social · 03/10/2026I used to live in Matt Shea's district. Can't say I was ever surprised tbh, the Idaho panhandle nutjobs really seep in 010
Reposted by @wapoliticalyapper.bsky.socialDj @djsoke.bsky.social · 03/10/2026mini AK primary thread: 2026's primary saw a large D turnout edge a la 2024, but different under the hood This year, the TO gap was super weighted to younger voters. How much higher Dem 18-24 TO was vs Rs in... 2024 - 1.3% 2026 - 12.4% The TO gap among 65+ voters shrank! 1277
Reposted by @wapoliticalyapper.bsky.socialashley (birthday month) 🕸️ @clearlyashley.bsky.social · 03/10/2026I think it’s so disrespectful to voters for a candidate not to put together a solid policy platform and/or not list that on their campaign website 77613
Reposted by @wapoliticalyapper.bsky.socialashley (birthday month) 🕸️ @clearlyashley.bsky.social · 03/10/2026this continues to be wild. 1252
Reposted by @wapoliticalyapper.bsky.socialashley (birthday month) 🕸️ @clearlyashley.bsky.social · 02/10/2026Trafalgar has Hamilton up in Kansas? I understand why NC was triaged 3475
Reposted by @wapoliticalyapper.bsky.socialPolitical Poll Bot @pollresults.org · 02/10/2026Kansas US Senate Sep 29 - Oct 1, 2026 Adam Hamilton (D) 44.4% (+0.9%) Roger Marshall (R) 43.5% Don't know 10.1% David Graham (L) 2% Trafalgar Group (B) 1095 LV Partisan pollster (R) View Poll 061
Reposted by @wapoliticalyapper.bsky.socialDavid Crowley Stan @fanofsheldon.bsky.social · 02/10/2026Found a poll that was too insane for chriswithans to comment on fully 2202
Reposted by @wapoliticalyapper.bsky.socialCollins Watch @collinswatch.bsky.social · 02/10/2026NEW: Susan Collins team bragging in its canvassing materials about her having "delivered" the conservative Supreme Court majority that overturned Roe. tinyurl.com/3mxnybe7 #MEpolitics 11367158
Reposted by @wapoliticalyapper.bsky.socialDaniel Donner @donnermaps.bsky.social · 02/10/2026There's a record 44 Republican-held open House seats this cycle. Half are because the incumbent is running for a different office or seat. The previous high point was 41 in 2018. docs.google.com/spreadsheets... 1376
Reposted by @wapoliticalyapper.bsky.socialashley (birthday month) 🕸️ @clearlyashley.bsky.social · 02/10/2026trump drop by a university of kentucky game I’m trying to see something 1261
Reposted by @wapoliticalyapper.bsky.socialCameron 🇺🇸🗽🦅 @cameroncorduroy.bsky.social · 02/10/2026er, i don't think so? 1229723
Reposted by @wapoliticalyapper.bsky.socialDavid Crowley Stan @fanofsheldon.bsky.social · 02/10/2026Rs are giving up on Trump-won heavily Latino NJ-9. Not really unexpected since I think Sherrill won it by 20, but notable 1122
wapoliticalyapper.bsky.social @wapoliticalyapper.bsky.social · 02/10/2026Anyway I'm donating some $, looks like it would go a long way to her campaign given the fundraising figures both candidates are listed with in that same article 110
wapoliticalyapper.bsky.social @wapoliticalyapper.bsky.social · 02/10/2026Apparently Janoo's campaign bought their first TV ad on Tuesday - within the MoE in several polls without any television advertising! I think there's a decent shot for a flip here (Source: www.sevendaysvt.com/news/janoo-o... )sevendaysvt.comJanoo Outraised Gov. Scott in September, Disclosures Show | Seven DaysThe filings lend credence to recent polling that suggests this year's governor's race is the most competitive in a decade. 110
wapoliticalyapper.bsky.social @wapoliticalyapper.bsky.social · 02/10/2026Holy shit Janoo only started paying for television ads 3 days ago? And she's within the MoE in several polls??? Yeah there's a serious potential upset here (source: www.sevendaysvt.com/news/janoo-o... "Janoo’s camp ... on September 29 — her campaign’s first foray into television ads")sevendaysvt.comJanoo Outraised Gov. Scott in September, Disclosures Show | Seven DaysThe filings lend credence to recent polling that suggests this year's governor's race is the most competitive in a decade. 000
Reposted by @wapoliticalyapper.bsky.socialPolling USA @usapolling.bsky.social · 02/10/2026Kentucky - 6th House Polling - (Trump +15 District): 🔵Dembo: 42% 🔴Alvarado: 37% ⚪️Others: 11% 🔵Dembo: 46% 🔴Alvarado: 43% GQR / Sept 30, 2026 (Dembo Internal) (Current model result in KY-6 is: GOP 51% - DEM 48%) unitedstatespolling.com/p/republican...unitedstatespolling.comRepublicans Are in Full Midterm PanicDemocrats continue their march toward a historic House majority as Trump’s approval sinks further 47816
Reposted by @wapoliticalyapper.bsky.socialashley (birthday month) 🕸️ @clearlyashley.bsky.social · 02/10/2026this is nuts 4232
Reposted by @wapoliticalyapper.bsky.socialUncrewed @uncrewed.bsky.social · 02/10/2026Despite Kansas's #HD41 backing Trump by 17 points, the Republicans have effectively conceded it. Why? A strong Democrat (former State Senator Jeff Pittman) and a Republican accused of abusing her children. The House GOP cut her loose last month. SLEW RATING: Likely D (FLIP) 4406
Reposted by @wapoliticalyapper.bsky.socialEric Michael Garcia @ericmgarcia.bsky.social · 02/10/2026NEW RASMUSSEN #IASen Josh Turek 47% Ashley Hinson 43% www.rasmussenreports.com/public_conte...rasmussenreports.comElection 2026: Iowa SenateDemocrat state Rep. Josh Turek maintains a four-point lead over U.S. Rep. Ashley Hinson in the race to fill the Iowa Senate seat vacated by the retirement of Republican Sen. Joni Ernst. 64211
Reposted by @wapoliticalyapper.bsky.socialashley (birthday month) 🕸️ @clearlyashley.bsky.social · 02/10/2026I’m thanking God he didn’t mention “transgender surgeries for children” in this 2547
Reposted by @wapoliticalyapper.bsky.socialJosh Turek @joshturek4iowa.bsky.social · 02/10/2026BREAKING: A new poll from Rasmussen shows our campaign leading by 4 points! This proves what we already knew. Iowans are sick and tired of corrupt D.C. politicians like Ashley Hinson. In 32 days, Iowans will vote for change. 610137
Reposted by @wapoliticalyapper.bsky.socialDavid Crowley Stan @fanofsheldon.bsky.social · 02/10/2026And he’s at 58% approval, so I doubt he loses in the end. Will be semi close tho! 242