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Can a Democratic Socialist flip a Republican-held seat in DuPage County? We'll find out in #SD24 as DSA-backed Ben McAdams challenges Republican incumbent Seth Lewis in this Harris+3 seat. Lewis is a rare labor-backed Republican (AFL-CIO endorsed). SLEW Rating: Lean D (FLIP)

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Uncrewed @uncrewed.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Me normally: 😐 Me when *checks notes* Case Keenum?: 😃 bsky.app/profile/uncr...

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Uncrewed @uncrewed.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

Covering the mighty city of Pocatello, Idaho's #LD29 will be a major battleground this year. This Trump+12 district is more Democratic-friendly downballot, especially in non-Presidential years. SLEW RATINGS: Lean D (Senate), Lean R (House Seat A), Lean D (FLIP) (House Seat B)

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Uncrewed @uncrewed.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

I'll defend the polling aggregate accounts for a lot of things (namely related to things related to crashouts from ex-538 members), but one thing I will not defend them about is treating obvious glup shitto pollsters like legitimate polls. Like, Big Data Polling should not be taken seriously

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Uncrewed @uncrewed.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

A chaotic three-way race has emerged in Hawaii's #HD14 (Lahaina) between a Democrat-turned-Republican incumbent, a Democrat, and a Green Party candidate who has attracted a LOT of union/progressive support. Pure toss-up here, expect chaos. SLEW RATING: Toss-Up

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Uncrewed @uncrewed.bsky.social · 26/09/2026

In a year where Georgia Democrats look like they'll do good on all levels, there's one seat in the State House where that might not happen, #HD128 in rural Georgia. This Trump+4 district has trended rightwards in recent cycles and has no incumbent running. SLEW RATING: Toss-Up

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Uncrewed @uncrewed.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

The Florida Democrats can defeat a party-switcher in #HD101, a Trump+3 district in southern Broward County. Republican incumbent Hillary Cassel left the Dems after the 2024 elections, but she's at serious risk of losing this November. SLEW RATING: Lean D (FLIP)

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Uncrewed @uncrewed.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

Thanks to a retirement, the Delaware Republicans are at risk of losing yet another Harris-won district, this time in #HD09 in southern New Castle County. If the Democrats aren't flipping an open Harris+15 district this year, something's wrong. SLEW RATING: Likely D (FLIP)

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Uncrewed @uncrewed.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

We’ve got Republicans in Trump+20 districts going negative against their Democratic opponents, what is going on

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Uncrewed @uncrewed.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

Bro, I only have six seats around Indianapolis ON THE BOARD right now. We're talking about districts up to Trump+17-18 flipping if Republican fears are real bsky.app/profile/purr...

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Uncrewed @uncrewed.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

Thanks to retirements/running for Governor, the Connecticut Democrats have two big flip opportunities in the State Senate in #SD28 and #SD36. Both districts backed Harris by nearly 20 points and are incumbent-less in a blue year. SLEW RATINGS: Likely D (FLIP) (Both)

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Uncrewed @uncrewed.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

It is taking everything in my willpower not to laugh when people act like breaking a poll embargo is akin to murder

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Uncrewed @uncrewed.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

The Colorado Democrats can create a supermajority in the State Senate if they flip #SD30 in northern Douglas County. By flipping this Harris+2 district and one State House seat, the Colorado Dems will have supermajorities in both chambers! SLEW RATING: Lean D (FLIP)

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Uncrewed @uncrewed.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

Found out that A) The Mayor of my city endorsed the Independent running for Congress here in #IL04 to replace Chuy Garcia and B) Said Independent is holding a meet-and-greet at a local restaurant. He's also backed by Raymond Lopez and has no issues page on his website, so that should tell you a lot

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Uncrewed @uncrewed.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

Can a former NFL Punter get elected to the California State Assembly? Well, that'll happen if the Democrats flip #AD72 in the Huntington Beach area. They're running former Minnesota Vikings punter/liberal activist Chris Kluwe in this Trump+3 district. SLEW RATING: Lean R

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Uncrewed @uncrewed.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

Some states are holding ballot measures that are truly unnecessary. Like, I promise to the people of Arkansas & South Dakota that non-citizens are not clamoring to vote in your elections

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Uncrewed @uncrewed.bsky.social · 20/09/2026

Arkansas's #SD13 is a suburban seat covering the northern suburbs of Little Rock. It's currently held by the Republicans, but term limits have made it an open seat. It's a rare district that swung to the left from 2020, going from Trump+4 to Trump+1. SLEW Rating: Lean D (FLIP)

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Uncrewed @uncrewed.bsky.social · 20/09/2026

>Pete Hegseth & Greg Abbott visit Texas A&M >Texas A&M immediately loses to an unranked Kentucky team The Ted Cruz curse is spreading

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Uncrewed @uncrewed.bsky.social · 19/09/2026

If the Arizona Dems want to win control of the legislature, they'll need to win #LD13, a Trump+1 district covering the suburban city of Chandler. All the seats are open this year and it has backed Democrats further down the ballot. SLEW Senate/House Seats Rating: Lean D (FLIP)

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Sage Of Time🇵🇷 @sageoftime.bsky.social · 19/09/2026

The 2026 MA US Senate Democratic Primary, a contest between two-termed incumbent Ed Markey, and Congressman Seth Moulton resulted in Markey Trouncing Moulton, despite the latter seeking to make the former's age an issue, due to an aggressive campaign that emphasized his progressive bona fides

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Uncrewed @uncrewed.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

I'm sorry, WHOMST has Talarico winning in Texas?

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Uncrewed @uncrewed.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

With the current Coalition-aligned Republican incumbent leaving for the State Senate, the Coalition is hoping to hold Alaska's #HD05. This Trump+13 district in the Kodiak area saw an Independent beat out a Republican by 22 points in the primary. SLEW Rating: Likely Coalition

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Uncrewed @uncrewed.bsky.social · 17/09/2026

Dems were already feeling good about flipping this district with former State Senator Jeff Pittman running (who outran the top of the ticket by seven in 2024), but this pretty much puts them in the driver's seat SLEW RATING CHANGE: Lean R -> Likely D (FLIP) sunflowerstatejournal.com/gop-house-ca...

sunflowerstatejournal.com

UPDATED: GOP House candidate losing support as questions surface about background | Sunflower State Journal

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Uncrewed @uncrewed.bsky.social · 17/09/2026

The Alabama Democrats have a chance to expand their State Senate caucus by flipping #SD02 in Huntsville this year. This open, Trump+0.5 seat is more Republican-friendly downballot, but an overall blue environment should be enough to flip it blue. SLEW Rating: Lean D (FLIP)

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Uncrewed @uncrewed.bsky.social · 17/09/2026

Haven't seen a politician distance themselves this hard from the President (from the same party) since Manchin literally shot the cap-and-trade bill bsky.app/profile/greg...

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Uncrewed @uncrewed.bsky.social · 17/09/2026

Excited to announce that I'll be posting maps for each state's most exciting state legislative district up for grabs this year! We're starting in Alabama tomorrow and I'll cover one state each day until election day!

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Uncrewed @uncrewed.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

With the Delaware Dems favored to flip #HD09 this year thanks to the GOP incumbent retiring, there's only one double digit Harris-district Republican left running, Michael Smith in #HD22. He's strong in this Harris+16 district, but could definitely get caught up in the blue year

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Uncrewed @uncrewed.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

Over half of the vote is in for Delaware's primary and there's six current Democratic incumbents trailing their more progressive opponents in the state legislature. That includes two seats in the Senate where Governor Matt Meyer went against the establishment leadership!

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Uncrewed @uncrewed.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

As I mentioned in today's edition of the SLEW, I do have an exciting announcement! Starting next month, I'll be previewing all of the competitive state legislative races throughout the country! I'll also be giving out my final ratings both here and in newsletter form!

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Uncrewed @uncrewed.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

The newest edition of the State Legislative Election Watch is out now covering tonight’s primaries in Delaware! Our final primary preview has progressives backed by the Governor and Republicans lining up hard behind a convicted abuser. Check it out below! uncrewed.substack.com/p/state-legi...

uncrewed.substack.com

State Legislative Election Watch- 2026 Delaware Primary Preview

Going over tonight’s primaries in Delaware AND an update on what’s next for the SLEW!

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Uncrewed @uncrewed.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

There's someone running for the Vermont State House under the "Women's Liberation Vegi-Aryan Party" banner. I don't know what a Vegi-Aryan means, but I can't imagine that it's good

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Uncrewed @uncrewed.bsky.social · 14/09/2026

One of the last of the ancestral Democrats in the Oklahoma legislature in the early days of Trump was Randy Bass, a State Senator from the Lawton area. Before joining the Senate, he was a pitcher in Japan's NPB, doing so good that he ended up in the Japanese Hall of Fame!

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Uncrewed @uncrewed.bsky.social · 13/09/2026

The Illinois Senate Democrats are actually giving a good amount of money to the DSA candidate trying to flip a Harris+3 district in DuPage County

static.klipy.com

It's Happening Isn't It? Meme

ALT: It's Happening Isn't It? Meme

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Uncrewed @uncrewed.bsky.social · 21/12/2025

Me normally: 😐 Me when Caleb Williams: 😀

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Uncrewed @uncrewed.bsky.social · 11/09/2026

Here are my updated ratings for this year's state legislative elections in Nevada! With Democratic-favored maps, national rebounding among Hispanics, and the potential for regaining the Democratic trifecta, the Nevada Democrats look pretty optimistic going into November.

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Uncrewed @uncrewed.bsky.social · 11/09/2026

2021 saw a very interesting race for City Council in Minneapolis, specifically the race for the 2nd Ward in east Minneapolis. Green Party incumbent Cam Gordon lost his seat to Democratic Socialist Robin Wonsley, who narrowly defeated a DFL candidate in the final round of RCV

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Uncrewed @uncrewed.bsky.social · 11/09/2026

I gotta say, the whole "Charlie Kirk Effect" was the biggest nothingburger I've ever seen in my years of following elections. This was from a special election in Minnesota about a week after it happened where the Democrats underperformed by 5 points. They then proceeded to belt the GOP in November.

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Uncrewed @uncrewed.bsky.social · 10/09/2026

One of the more interesting US Senate races in 2014 happened in South Dakota. The seat was open that year, which was won by Mike Rounds. He only won with a smidge over 50% though, as a Democrat and former Republican Senator Larry Pressler (as an Indy) combined for almost 50%.

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Uncrewed @uncrewed.bsky.social · 10/09/2026

I know Teamsters President Sean O'Brien is just a hack Republican now, but endorsing Roger Marshall? Really? The guy with a 14% lifetime rating from the AFL-CIO is a "Friend of Labor" according to O'Brien. If he's a friend of labor then I'm a supermodel teamster.org/2026/09/team...

teamster.org

Teamsters Local 696 Endorses Sen. Marshall for Re-Election

(TOPEKA, Kan.) – Today, Teamsters Local 696 endorsed Senator Roger Marshall (R-KS) for re-election to the U.S. Senate. “Sen.&nbs

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Uncrewed @uncrewed.bsky.social · 10/09/2026

It's another Democratic Socialist win on the local level, as the Bernie Sanders-backed State Representative David Morales has unseated incumbent Mayor Brett Smiley in Providence by a healthy margin

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Uncrewed @uncrewed.bsky.social · 09/09/2026

Is there something you want to tell us Republicans?

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Uncrewed @uncrewed.bsky.social · 09/09/2026

The newest edition of the State Legislative Election Watch is out now covering tonight’s primaries in Rhode Island! It’s a battle between liberal/progressive incumbents and moderate/conservative/probably actually Republican Democrats! Check it out below! uncrewed.substack.com/p/state-legi...

uncrewed.substack.com

State Legislative Election Watch- 2026 Rhode Island Primary Preview

It’s the battle between progressive Democrats and people who claim to be Democrats (but probably aren’t) in The Ocean State tonight!

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Uncrewed @uncrewed.bsky.social · 09/09/2026

FWIW, it does look like Shaheen will win in #NH01 over Sullivan. Sullivan has been underperforming in the Manchester area. By the way, check out the amount of votes cast in places like Bedford & Goffstown. These were once ruby red Republican, but Dems are outvoting Republicans in both!

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Uncrewed @uncrewed.bsky.social · 09/09/2026

Because there's always an Illinois angle, it's worth mentioning that the potential next Congresswoman for #NH01, Maura Sullivan, was actually almost recruited to run for #IL06 back in 2018! She was also almost recruited to run against Lipinski in #IL03! www.nhpr.org/politics/201...

nhpr.org

'Encouraged to Run,' Sullivan Mulled Multiple Congressional Districts Before N.H. Move

There’s a phrase political reporters often lean on when describing Democratic congressional candidate Maura Sullivan: “Right out of central…

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Uncrewed @uncrewed.bsky.social · 09/09/2026

Shoutout to the South Dakota State Representative who switched from the Democrats to the Republicans and is now running for State Senate as an Independent against a Democrat and a Republican. Stay confusing my friend

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Uncrewed @uncrewed.bsky.social · 08/09/2026

The candidates for state legislature in New Hampshire tonight include: -The treasurer of a bitcoin nonprofit -A Satanist anti-police bitcoin fraudster -A Republican incumbent who might be the most anti-Semitic candidate running this year (see below)

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Uncrewed @uncrewed.bsky.social · 08/09/2026

Somehow Emanuel Cleaver returned bsky.app/profile/kels...

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