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wapoliticalyapper.bsky.social @wapoliticalyapper.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

Case in point - at 453 responses Scott's lead widened considerably BUT - it's still (a) within the margin of error and (b) terrible compared to prior elections!! And of course, when another 400-500 responses come in we can see something way different potentially!

The current live poll results - at 453.2 weighted responses with moe approximately 4.6 points plus-or-minus, Janoo has 41.0%, Scott 48.5%, Goodband 1.1%, Judd 1.3%, Roy 0.6%, don't know/didn't respond 7.6%. Both Janoo and Scott have wide bands of "definitely" and some decent bands of "probably" in their responses

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wapoliticalyapper.bsky.social @wapoliticalyapper.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

I'd better fucking see this rotten dogshit absolutely destroyed next month

Initiative Measure No. IL26-638 concerns participation in athletics at K-12 schools.
This measure would prohibit students it defines as "biologically male" from competing in certain school athletic activities intended for female students only. It would require verification of biological sex by students' healthcare providers.
Should this measure be enacted into law?

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wapoliticalyapper.bsky.social @wapoliticalyapper.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

The next initiative on the list is a bunch of small repeals that includes this gem right here.

Some text from this initiative highlighted that reads "The right to receive immediate notification when a child is alleged to be the victim, target, or recipient of physical or sexual abuse, sexual misconduct, or assault by a school employee or contractor would be removed."

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wapoliticalyapper.bsky.social @wapoliticalyapper.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

The messaging on these initiatives thus far has gone so great that I didn't even know (despite p much expecting it ever since the tax passed) the initiative to try to repeal the millionaire's tax would be on this ballot lol Love the wording here, no one wants to defund public schools lmfao

Initiative measure IP26-645, whose summary reads as follows:

Initlative Measure No. IP26-645 concerns state and local taxes.
This measure would repeal a 9.9% tax on annual individual income over $1,000,000; prohibit taxes measured by individual income and taxes on individual income or the receipt of individual income; and define "income." This measure would decrease funding for public K-12 education, higher education (including universities and community colleges), and human services (primarily healthcare).
Should this measure be enacted into law?

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wapoliticalyapper.bsky.social @wapoliticalyapper.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

Shit's starting to get real (still like 3 weeks before I get my ballot lol)

My Washington State Voters' Pamphlet, a document containing info for every race on my upcoming ballot. The front cover has the washington state flag and some secretary of state info.

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wapoliticalyapper.bsky.social @wapoliticalyapper.bsky.social · 05/08/2026

Been getting a lot of mailers for Sabio-Howell in the late stretch but so far she's being smoked by Jamie Pedersen. We'll see how much better the later returns are for Sabio-Howell (Seattle always sees a large left-shift in late returns) but she'll need to start far better than this in the general

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wapoliticalyapper.bsky.social @wapoliticalyapper.bsky.social · 05/08/2026

King finally in and lol the fucking terrible lefty challengers to Smith are highly unlikely to advance. He'll probably be going up against a republican and he'll win again just as easily as he would against either Chaudhry or Sawant.

Washington's 9th congressional district results thus far: Adam Smith has 50.54%, lefty challenger Kshama Sawant has 12.56%, leftyish (but anti-queer kinda?) Melissa Chaudhry has 11.42%, and the main GOP candidate has 23.79%

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wapoliticalyapper.bsky.social @wapoliticalyapper.bsky.social · 05/08/2026

So it's early vote but dems currently add up to >50% of the primary vote out of Cowlitz county (trump won this county by 20 points in 2024) I imagine it'll get redder but cool to see

results from cowlitz county so far: Democratic candidates % add up to 38.54+9.87+0.99+0.81=50.21%

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wapoliticalyapper.bsky.social @wapoliticalyapper.bsky.social · 05/08/2026

It's just a smattering of returns from Cowlitz and Wahkiakum rn but I'm already not confident in Hennrich's chances...

partial election results for WA03 - Marie Gluesenkamp Perez has 39.1%, John Braun has 43.9%, and third place (Brent Hennrich) has 9.62%

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wapoliticalyapper.bsky.social @wapoliticalyapper.bsky.social · 15/03/2026

what the fuck is this lmfao I mean she's running a campaign which is good, I just find this funny, it's literally just a linktree with ai in its name lol

a link on Angela Roberts' facebook page to some website called beacons dot ai

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wapoliticalyapper.bsky.social @wapoliticalyapper.bsky.social · 14/03/2026

Today's louisiana house election is rather interesting. It's in the conservative areas/suburbs of Baton Rouge, an incredibly racially (and politically) polarized city. And it's actually zoomed left since 2016; Harris improved on Biden in its lines! And dems consistently improved in Senate races too.

An image of Louisiana House district 69 displaying presidential results from 2016-2024. In 2016, Trump won it 61.7%-31.8% for Clinton. In 2020, Trump got 60.8% to Biden's 36.8%, and in 2024 Trump got 58.7%-38.6% for Harris.

An image showing the political polarization of Baton Rouge; many precincts in the northern parts of the city are solidly blue, while precincts in the south, including virtually all precincts in this district, are varying shades of red

An image showing the racial polarization of Baton Rouge; compared to the political polarization image, the more minority districts align directly to the democratic precincts: All the solidly blue areas are heavily minority (mostly Black, though while this image doesn't show it, a couple precincts particularly in the southern parts of Baton Rouge are plurality Hispanic), while the redder areas are Whiter

Senate results for the 69th house district: in 2016, the Republican got 67.9% to 29.8% for the Democrat. In 2020, the GOP share fell to 65.2% to 32.1% for Dems, and in 2022 the GOP fell further to 62.9% to 35.5% for the Dem.

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wapoliticalyapper.bsky.social @wapoliticalyapper.bsky.social · 13/03/2026

LRT: For a blood-red district, it does seem like margins are quite swingy - dems have gotten anywhere between 30 and >41% in generals. Given that, the demographics, and special election environments, yeah I could see the right candidate making it close. A W would be an earthquake still

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wapoliticalyapper.bsky.social @wapoliticalyapper.bsky.social · 02/03/2026

It probably doesn't help that a bunch of internals got released late for narrative-building, but even the chronological list looks like a mess. _Maybe_ the late oscillations are between the Allred allegations and then the Colbert thing? But all I see is a total mess tbh

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wapoliticalyapper.bsky.social @wapoliticalyapper.bsky.social · 27/02/2026

interesting notice I only now saw. republican numbers may be undercounted somewhat. Still hoping dems "win" the primary turnout but I guess if they only got 40% of the turnout in 2018 then there's no reason not to celebrate anything >=40% when all's said and done!

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wapoliticalyapper.bsky.social @wapoliticalyapper.bsky.social · 18/02/2026

6-1-1 took me like 5 minutes lol and is far cleaner than what their map proposes. I'm not saying it'd make the difference but I do feel like it'd have some marginal affects that COULD matter for a state like CO

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wapoliticalyapper.bsky.social @wapoliticalyapper.bsky.social · 27/01/2026

god I forgot how terribly stupid the KY-SEN polls were in 2020. McGrath got 38% of the vote! FL-SEN is gonna be insufferable

A set of polls of kentucky's 2020 us senate election. In nearly every poll, Amy McGrath's vote share is in the low-to-mid 40s, while McConnell's rarely cracked 50%. Of course, the actual results were far different, more in line with a typical statewide Kentucky election.

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