Magenta @magentab.bsky.social · 15hguys i fucked up my google spreadsheet formulas really badly and it gave me a dose of mega democratic hopium (the corrected formula says that it the projected margin rn should be D+17, not D+26) 3121
Magenta @magentab.bsky.social · 18hhillary clinton carried TX-15 by a D+13.6 margin btw pulido winning by D+13 as this poll implies basically means that all trump-era republican gains in the RGV are gone 2478
Magenta @magentab.bsky.social · 30/09/2026democrats outvoted republicans in TX-09 btw (34,865 to 31,685, 52% to 48%) also a potential case of hispanic reversion, since beto carried this district in 2018 181
Reposted by MagentaDavid S. Bernstein @dbernstein.bsky.social · 30/09/2026Maybe not the right analogy to make in a Yankees +9 environment 24910
Magenta @magentab.bsky.social · 29/09/2026so something that i'm noticing in NJ mail-in voting is that early returns are way up across the board the return rate for democrats is currently 13.3%, which is almost double that of the return rate at this point last year (7.3%) even GOP mail returns are up even though that increase is not as big 5288
Magenta @magentab.bsky.social · 29/09/2026we all know the golden rule of "all ohio undecideds are secret republicans" WELL WHAT IF DEMOCRATS WERE OVER/AT 50% ANYWAY 1170
Magenta @magentab.bsky.social · 28/09/2026bullpen games are so fun i have no idea who the fuck anyone is 000
Magenta @magentab.bsky.social · 28/09/2026i was gonna take a nap and then i got too amped up by NJ mail in returns, now i am going to crash out at 7 PM today 040
Magenta @magentab.bsky.social · 28/09/2026so i wanna go over some stuff about my 2025 NJ gov model since i am kinda retrofitting it for the 2026 NJ senate election with just extrapolating from mail-ins and assuming that indies break 50/50, i got pretty close to the final margin of the 2025 gov race (i got D+16, actual margin was D+14) 280
Reposted by MagentaPaulina @diabolama92.bsky.social · 28/09/2026Polling aggregators for the past few days be like: Rasmussen Legit pollster InsiderAdvantage Strategyes Insyghts Cygnals 🔴 Semi-legit pollster Sponsored by 🔴 PAC 261
Magenta @magentab.bsky.social · 27/09/2026sal stewart is giga-choking NL ROTY award lol a 0.591 OPS in september is incomprehensible 100
Magenta @magentab.bsky.social · 27/09/2026carney is so good that he is winning the impossible "right/wrong direction" question 1130
Reposted by MagentaNick @nickwidzowski.bsky.social · 27/09/2026Some people will hallucinate voter behavior instead of going to therapy 0322
Magenta @magentab.bsky.social · 25/09/2026i just got retweeted by sharon by dunking on pierre poilievre, this bluesky shit is easy 140
Magenta @magentab.bsky.social · 25/09/2026hi, political expert here! this isn't funny, party leaders only do this when they are under extreme distress. 27610
Magenta @magentab.bsky.social · 25/09/2026most of my popular with friends feed is literally just sharon 250
Magenta @magentab.bsky.social · 25/09/2026jackson and pingree having nearly identical shares is kinda telling here 220
Magenta @magentab.bsky.social · 24/09/2026i wonder if we are seeing a rural revolt against republicans this election cycle like how we saw an urban revolt against democrats during the biden era 3171
Magenta @magentab.bsky.social · 24/09/2026so something interesting about the kansas elections in 2024 is that in KS-03, sharice davids overperformed kamala harris in the district's rural counties by around 15 points Miami: R+40 -> R+25 Franklin: R+40 -> R+25 Anderson: R+60 -> R+44 1100
Magenta @magentab.bsky.social · 24/09/2026the VT GOP breaking the democratic supermajorities in the state legislature is probably the worst thing to happen to phil scott since his vetoes now mean something 1272
Magenta @magentab.bsky.social · 24/09/2026i always have to work backwards to find out who reposted that starter pack whenever i get a boost in followers 020
Magenta @magentab.bsky.social · 24/09/2026real ball knowers know that in MI-01, the primary partisan turnout differential was only R+1 0120
Magenta @magentab.bsky.social · 24/09/2026this is reflective of youtube comments being a lot more libbed out lately 160
Magenta @magentab.bsky.social · 24/09/2026ok new rule for myself: ignore all polling for maine that starts doing fielding before september 22 190
Magenta @magentab.bsky.social · 23/09/2026it is incredibly obvious how inflated youtube view counts are now holy shit 151
Magenta @magentab.bsky.social · 23/09/2026you never see democratic electeds talking about polls about the insane public opinion of registered republicans like this and frankly if anybody ever tried it it would not go over well 0101
Magenta @magentab.bsky.social · 23/09/2026this is just like scotusblog's first reaction to the dobbs leak is by condemning the leak itself 0294
Magenta @magentab.bsky.social · 23/09/2026but gina, do you not realize that it's unethical to share a poll a few hours before it's official release 3223
Magenta @magentab.bsky.social · 22/09/2026new theory as to why the oregon governor's race is way too close (again) 190
Reposted by MagentaElectionCord @electioncord.com · 22/09/2026YouGov, in my opinion is one of the top pollsters in the game right now. They were clearly the most accurate pollsters of 2025, and when they show a D+14 Generic Ballot (LV), that to me is a bigger warning sign than even that Iowa Marist poll. LINK: d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/ec... 0317
Magenta @magentab.bsky.social · 22/09/2026lawler is using the same cope as many liberal doomers lol 2251
Reposted by MagentaStarfire’s Deranged Neocon Foreign Policy Podcast @irhottakes.bsky.social · 22/09/2026Apropos of nothing, I would like to talk about Spam. Like, the actual meat, not the internet spam. It's good meat at an affordable price. The good people of Hawaii and Korea have integrated into their regional cuisines in a perfectly respectable manner. It deserves more respect. 3614313
Magenta @magentab.bsky.social · 22/09/2026fuck 2006 and 2018, we're going after 1958 and 1974 now 16511
Magenta @magentab.bsky.social · 22/09/2026a lot of people are talking about the weighting of this poll (which is fair, electorates are hard to predict in advance) but also, idk what weighting would even be reasonable enough to change the result of the top line since it is so one-sided atp 2130
