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The Upshot

@upshot.nytimes.com
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Data, charts, analysis and games from The New York Times: nytimes.com/upshot

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The Upshot @upshot.nytimes.com · 10h
Critics expressed anger that the protagonist was a white man. Several demanded that Sanders issue an apology and fire the staff members who helped produce the TV spot, accusing her of “anti-white racism.” www.nytimes.com/2026/09/29/u...
nytimes.com
Ad About Welfare Fraud Draws MAGA Backlash
Far-right influencers piled on Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders, President Trump’s former press secretary, over a campaign ad about Medicaid work requirements in Arkansas.
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New York Times Opinion @nytopinion.nytimes.com · 18h
Racing across the city last week, Mayor Zohran Mamdani “seemed to be offering an antidote to globe-spanning distemper,” Lydia Polgreen writes. “To restore faith in institutions, you must begin from the bottom up.”
nyti.ms
Opinion | Zohran Mamdani Is Showing the World How It’s Done
The New York City mayor has an antidote to globe-spanning distemper.
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The Upshot @upshot.nytimes.com · 12h
How a Provocative Ad on Trump and Immigration Stirred a Florida House Race www.nytimes.com/2026/10/03/u...
nytimes.com
How Trump’s Deportation Policies Have Rocked a South Florida House Race (Gift Article)
Representative María Elvira Salazar, a Republican, ran an ad criticizing the Trump administration. It may have jolted other Republicans — and drawn attention to her Democratic opponent.
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The Upshot @upshot.nytimes.com · 13h
Another nugget from Nate, this time on Sherrod Brown and the data center issue in Ohio. www.nytimes.com/2026/10/03/u...
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The Upshot @upshot.nytimes.com · 13h
A nugget from Nate Cohn on Adam Hamilton in the Kansas Senate race. (Our poll had it as a tie.) www.nytimes.com/2026/10/03/u...
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The Upshot @upshot.nytimes.com · 13h
www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
nytimes.com
Latest Polls (Free Access)
Track all the polls from today, including the latest data on the 2026 midterm elections, governor’s races, President Trump’s approval rating and more.
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whet moser @whetmoser.com · 14h
“Drawing on labyrinthine Internal Revenue Service records, the pair study a group of rich business owners that looks more like a suburban chamber of commerce than an oligarchy: car dealers, dentists... What they find is tremendous wealth and power.” www.nytimes.com/2026/10/02/b...
nytimes.com
The Rich People Democrats Aren’t Talking About (Gift Article)
As billionaires become a popular political target, a new book urges Washington not to lose sight of a much larger, and quieter, group of wealthy business owners.
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The New York Times @nytimes.com · 16h
We spoke with dozens of librarians from across the U.S. about the challenges and triumphs of running a library. Here is what they told us. nyti.ms/4yw4O4k
A grid of photos of people in front of a green background. A headline reads: " Librarians on Libraries."
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Taniel @taniel.bsky.social · 16h
Holy shit, the favorability ratings: Talarico 47/38 (indies 57/30) Paxton 39/51 (indies 27/68) Turek 44/34 Hinson 41/45 Brown 46/41 (indies 47/36) Husted 37/47 (indies:35/50) Peltola 50/42 (indies 68/28) Sullivan 42/53 (indies 24/73) Hamilton 39/27 Marshall 40/45
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Dj @djsoke.bsky.social · 17h
Here are the demo changes in the NYT Siena polls from AK and TX from June to September In Alaska: Trump and Sullivan approval/fav dropped a ton and the age breakdown looks more normal In Texas: Talarico has firmer Black support and seemingly a kinder likely electorate
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Eric Lipton NYT @ericlipton.nytimes.com · 19h
JUST POSTED: Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff have pushed a multibillion oil deal with Russia as part of peace talks that will bring profits to their family business partners. A new front for Trump-era conflicts of interest. www.nytimes.com/2026/10/03/u...
nytimes.com
U.S.-Russia Talks on Ukraine Now Involve an Oil Deal Tied to Trump Allies (Gift Article)
President Vladimir V. Putin brought up a sale of Russian energy assets with President Trump’s envoys, Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff, pushing a deal that raises new questions about conflicts of inter...
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Mike Walker @newnarrative.bsky.social · 19h
Senate Races in Republican States Tilt Toward Democrats, Polls Find www.nytimes.com/2026/10/03/u...
nytimes.com
Senate Races in Republican States Tilt Toward Democrats, Polls Find
Democrats are performing strongly in five reliably Republican states where they are trying to flip Senate seats to win control of the chamber, new New York Times/Siena polls found.
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The Upshot @upshot.nytimes.com · 18h
Via Nate Cohn on five new Times/Siena polls of Texas, Alaska, Ohio, Iowa and Kansas. www.nytimes.com/2026/10/03/u...
nytimes.com
Democrats May Have Found the Recipe for Flipping Red-State Senate Seats (Gift Article)
New Times/Siena polls continue a run of strong results for the party in states that President Trump won easily in 2024.
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The Upshot @upshot.nytimes.com · 03/10/2026
www.nytimes.com/video/us/100...
nytimes.com
Video: How Trump Directed Tax Dollars to Ads Praising Him
President Trump personally directed the use of taxpayer money for ads praising his presidency, according to people familiar with the matter. Our White House correspondent, Maggie Haberman, explains.
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Mike Walker @newnarrative.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
In Alabama, Trump Relives His Glory Days (This Time With Some Empty Seats) www.nytimes.com/2026/10/02/u...
nytimes.com
In Alabama, Trump Relives His Glory Days (This Time With Some Empty Seats)
The Deep South was the birthplace of the mega MAGA rally. How do people on the Gulf feel about President Trump now?
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The New York Times @nytimes.com · 02/10/2026
President Trump directed staff to use taxpayer money for TV ads praising him and his presidency, setting in motion a $20 million contract that used funds from the Department of Homeland Security, according to people familiar with the matter. nyti.ms/4jBqx63
President Trump stands in a dark suit and red tie. A crowd of people and a large American flag are in the background. A headline reads: "Trump Directed Use of Taxpayer Money for Ads Praising His Presidency." Photo by Doug Mills for The New York Times.
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Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
I have been seeing a lot of people not trusting the polls in the Midwest, which is totally fair given recent history. But if all you knew were Trump's national net approval, there would be absolutely nothing weird about any of the polling in any race right now. wertwhile.substack.com/p/on-polling...
wertwhile.substack.com
On Polling Error: Zoom Out
Donald Trump is in his second term overseeing high gas prices and well above target inflation, a foreign war nobody likes, and was elected despite his deep unpopularity to begin with.
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The New York Times @nytimes.com · 02/10/2026
All American children will be automatically enrolled in Trump accounts for investing in the stock market, the Treasury Department announced. Use this calculator to estimate which account would be worth the most when a child turns 18, if parents start investing now.
nyti.ms
Is a Trump Account the Best Way to Invest for Your Child? Try Our Calculator.
Families also have options like 529 college plans and custodial brokerage accounts. Find out which one works best for you.
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G Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris.com · 02/10/2026
NEW: Amid rising diesel prices, Republicans turn against Trump for first time on handling inflation. A majority of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents (52%) now say they disapprove of Donald Trump’s handling of prices: www.gelliottmorris.com/p/2026-10-02...
gelliottmorris.com
Amid rising diesel prices, Republicans turn against Trump for first time on handling inflation
In our September poll, 52% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents disapprove of Trump's handling of prices. That could be dragging down Republican Senate candidates in red states
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Stephen Wolf @stephenwolf.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
NEW: The 2026 elections in most states will decide which party runs elections heading into 2028 (see map). We detail how Democrats could hold or gain this power in 14 potentially competitive states—and form a bulwark against MAGA subverting the 2028 elections www.the-downballot.com/p/voters-can...
Map of the United States titled "2026 Elections That Will Decide Which Party Runs Elections," with the subtitle "Includes secretaries of state and other elected offices where relevant." Source: The Downballot. States are colored by incumbent party.

Democratic (blue), 14 states: Arizona, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, and Vermont.

Republican (red), 18 states: Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Nebraska, New Hampshire, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Texas, and Wyoming.

Bipartisan (yellow), 4 states: Hawaii, Illinois, New York, and Wisconsin.
Not up in 2026 (gray), 14 states: Delaware, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, New Jersey, North Carolina, Oregon, Tennessee, Utah, Virginia, Washington, and West Virginia.

Footnotes: Illinois and Wisconsin have Democratic secretaries of state who do not run elections. Pennsylvania's Democratic governor appointed a Republican who typically aligns with Democrats.
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The New York Times @nytimes.com · 02/10/2026
Breaking News: A top Republican super PAC pulled money from the North Carolina Senate race, signaling the party no longer sees a path to winning the state. At the same time, the super PAC is diverting money to Kansas, which has become a growing concern for Republicans.
nyti.ms
As Prospects Dim, G.O.P. Pulls Money Out of North Carolina Senate Race
The Senate Leadership Fund is diverting money to Kansas, which has become a growing concern for the party as it seeks to hold its majority.
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Chaz Nuttycombe @chaznuttycombe.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Democrats are currently favored this year in state government elections to... Create 4 new trifectas Create 4 new supermajorities Break 4 Republican trifectas Break 8 Republican supermajorities projects.statenavigate.com/25-26/nation...
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The New York Times @nytimes.com · 02/10/2026
Iran has been launching drones and missiles at commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz each week, though it has often failed to strike its targets, according to a Western security official. Iran for the first time appeared to confirm it was behind the near-daily sounds of explosions.
nyti.ms
Oil Flows Are Up, but Iran Is Still Menacing the Strait of Hormuz
Iran has been launching drones and missiles at commercial ships in the waterway each week, though it has often failed to strike its targets, according to a Western security official.
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The Upshot @upshot.nytimes.com · 02/10/2026
Readers move "Better Call Saul" and "Ted Lasso" way up, relative to the experts, and into the top 10. www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
nytimes.com
Readers Choose Their Top TV Shows of the 21st Century
The people have spoken. Here are their picks.
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Taniel @taniel.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Big news in the Senate battle. After pouring $30 million in NC, John Thune's GOP SuperPAC stops spending there, effectively conceding Cooper is likely to win. And they're dumping their first 7-figures in Kansas. (Note: a Dem internal found Hamilton up today.) www.semafor.com/article/10/0...
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The Upshot @upshot.nytimes.com · 02/10/2026
www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
nytimes.com
Latest Polls (Free Access)
Track all the polls from today, including the latest data on the 2026 midterm elections, governor’s races, President Trump’s approval rating and more.
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The Upshot @upshot.nytimes.com · 02/10/2026
"I feel a little foolish, you know? I’m saying, ‘Go out and vote, go out and vote,’ but they’re going to win in a landslide.” www.nytimes.com/2026/10/01/u...
nytimes.com
Trump Puts on a Midterms Show for an Audience That’s Already Sold (Gift Article)
President Trump spent the day preaching to his most fervent fans, not the voters he will need to help elect or re-elect a slate of Republicans fighting in states from Alaska to Maine.
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The Upshot @upshot.nytimes.com · 02/10/2026
Families also have options like 529 college plans and custodial brokerage accounts. Find out which one works best for you. Gift link: www.nytimes.com/2026/10/02/u...
nytimes.com
Is a Trump Account the Best Way to Invest for Your Child? Try Our Calculator.
Families also have options like 529 college plans and custodial brokerage accounts. Find out which one works best for you.
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Ben Casselman @bencasselman.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Bottom line: +29k jobs (+50k 3mma) and 4.2% unemployment are hardly catastrophic. Rebound in prime-age e-pop is encouraging. Fundamental issue in this labor market isn't that there aren't enough jobs. It's what they pay: Wage growth is continuing to slow. #NumbersDay
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The Upshot @upshot.nytimes.com · 02/10/2026
www.nytimes.com/2026/10/02/b...
nytimes.com
Tariffs Are Making Instruments So Expensive, School Music Programs Are at Risk (Gift Article)
When a single cello can cost $1,000 and a tuba $9,000, tariffs are straining meager band and orchestra budgets.
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ElectionCord @electioncord.com · 01/10/2026
NEW: I noticed something in a couple of recent polls that gave me some caution against a few of the more bullish results for Democrats, and how the definition of the likely voter can have a significant impact on the final outcome of the poll. LINK: electioncord.com/the-likely-v...
electioncord.com
The Likely Voter Screen: How the Definition of a Likely Voter Can Change the Result of a Poll
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Nathaniel Rakich @baseballot.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
@nataliaecm.bsky.social spoke to a Texas voter who thought he had registered at the DMV and then couldn’t vote in the March primary: www.votebeat.org/texas/2026/1...
A quote from a frustrated voter.
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The Upshot @upshot.nytimes.com · 01/10/2026
www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
nytimes.com
Latest Polls (Free Access)
Track all the polls from today, including the latest data on the 2026 midterm elections, governor’s races, President Trump’s approval rating and more.
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Taniel @taniel.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
NEW: It's that time of year: time to launch my annual guide to November's elections! I guide you through over *650* interesting elections, & why they matter. Judges, AGs, govs, mayors, lawmakers, AGs, county & school boards—plus many (many) ballot measures. Oh, & Congress. Explore & bookmark!
boltsmag.org
Your Cheat Sheet to the 2026 General Elections - Bolts
Congressional races will take center stage on Nov. 3, but they’re just the tip of what to watch. Prosecutors and governors, attorneys general and sheriffs, school boards and mayors, utility... Read Mo...
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Jacob S. Rugh @jakerugh.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
Same Dem > Rep crossover in new active voter registrations is happening here in Utah. Which hasn't ever happened in any election year this past decade. Truly unprecedented: bsky.app/profile/jake...
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The Downballot @the-downballot.com · 01/10/2026
New graphics from AdImpact vividly illustrate something we've emphasized repeatedly: The GOP's massive spending advantage is *not* translating into a comparable *advertising* advantage. In #TXSen, e.g., the GOP has spent 66% of all ad money but aired just 54% of all ads adimpact.com/blogs/republ...
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The Upshot @upshot.nytimes.com · 01/10/2026
www.nytimes.com/2026/10/01/u...
nytimes.com
3 Billionaires Have Largely Funded Republican Nominee for Wisconsin Governor (Gift Article)
Under its current rules, Wisconsin has not had a race in which a small number of donors have made up such a large share of a campaign’s funding.
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John Gramlich @johngramlich.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
"Ten years ago this month, in my old job as Washington correspondent for the Toronto Star, I started what I believed would be a quick little side project: fact-checking underdog presidential candidate Donald Trump." (via @cnn.com)
cnn.com
I started fact-checking Trump 10 years ago. Here are 15 things I’ve learned | CNN Politics
Ten years ago this month, in my old job as Washington correspondent for the Toronto Star, I started what I believed would be a quick little side project: fact-checking underdog presidential candidate ...
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John Gramlich @johngramlich.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Ahead of the Supreme Court's new term, 34% of Americans approve of the court in a new @gallup.com survey – among the lowest percentages on record. news.gallup.com/poll/715022/...
Line chart showing that 34% of Americans currently approve of the way the Supreme Court is handling its job. That's among the lowest readings in Gallup surveys since 2000.
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Pew Research Center @pewresearch.org · 01/10/2026
Urban, suburban and rural Americans are about equally likely to be politically active, but their differences are not just Republican vs. Democrat. Rural Americans, for example, are more likely than those in urban areas to display signs and bumper stickers, regardless of party. #PewKnightInitiative
Chart showing rural Americans are more likely to put up political signs or bumper stickers
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Jesse Felder @jessefelder.com · 01/10/2026
‘US gasoline supplies fell to the lowest level in 12 years, flashing a warning sign for higher pump prices as a global refining crisis pushes up fuel bills.’ www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
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Steve Rattner @steverattner.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
Inflation hit a low of 2.3% in April 2025. Then came tariffs and the Iran War, and it’s been stuck above 3% since March. My @morningjoe-msnow.bsky.social Chart
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Steve Rattner @steverattner.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Under President Trump, the wealth of the top 1% has grown more than twice as fast as the bottom half of Americans.
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The Upshot @upshot.nytimes.com · 01/10/2026
Republican and Democratic senators struck a deal to vote on the largest overhaul of federal energy and environmental rules in decades. www.nytimes.com/2026/09/30/c...
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Semafor @semafor.com · 30/09/2026
Visitors to the US are on track to drop by almost two million year-on-year. “We’re the only major country in the world losing visitation,” the head of the US Travel Association said. “It’s mind-boggling.” www.semafor.com/article/09/2...
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The New York Times @nytimes.com · 01/10/2026
Unaffiliated voters in California leaned heavily toward Xavier Becerra, a Democrat, in a recent poll, pushing him to his largest lead of this election cycle.
nyti.ms
Becerra Holds Wide Leads in Polling of California’s Governor Race
Unaffiliated voters leaned heavily toward Xavier Becerra, a Democrat, in a recent poll, pushing him to his largest lead of this election cycle.
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The Upshot @upshot.nytimes.com · 01/10/2026
www.nytimes.com/2026/09/30/s...
nytimes.com
Clues to Why a Breakthrough Pancreatic Cancer Drug Eventually Stops Working (Gift Article)
Researchers are asking why patients, like former Senator Ben Sasse, inevitably develop resistance to the drug daraxonrasib.
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Carl Zimmer @carlzimmer.com · 28/09/2026
The human genome is part virus. And here's a virus that's part human, having picked up a human gene about 100,000 years ago. My story here: nyti.ms/4hRKNPC
nyti.ms
This Virus Stole a Human Gene and Won’t Let Go of It (Gift Article)
Scientists have found a human gene lurking in a virus that causes skin infections. It may be using our own DNA to infect us.
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Charlie Savage @charliesavage.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Judge Questions Secrecy Around Trump Administration’s Memo on Boat Strikes The judge also ordered the Justice Department to privately show the court the contested document, which blesses the disputed killings at sea. www.nytimes.com/2026/09/30/u... w/ Ben Weiser
nytimes.com
Judge Questions Secrecy Around Trump Administration’s Memo on Boat Strikes
The judge also ordered the Justice Department to privately show the court the contested document, which blesses the disputed killings at sea.
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Sheryl Gay Stolberg @sherylnyt.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
My take on yesterday's MAHA Summit: There are now two MAHAs: Corporate, Trump-aligned MAHA and grassroots MAHA, which is being courted by Democrats like @abdulelsayed.bsky.social. He just announced his "Build a Healthier America" agenda. BAHA? www.nytimes.com/2026/09/29/h...
nytimes.com
A.I. Is ‘Better Informed’ Than Doctors, Kennedy Tells Industry-Backed MAHA Summit (Gift Article)
The health secretary, Vice President JD Vance and other top officials addressed a conference sponsored by corporations, including A.I. companies and others with business before the government.
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