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Jacob S. Rugh

@jakerugh.bsky.social
1.6K followers 638 following 407 posts

Raised on Chicago's South Side. My research has appeared in The Atlantic, 538, The Guardian, KSL, NYT, NPR, Split Ticket, Salt Lake Tribune & Supreme Court cases.

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Jacob S. Rugh @jakerugh.bsky.social · 7h
www.nytimes.com/2026/06/21/u...
nytimes.com
How Remote Work Has Helped a Generation of Working Parents (Gift Article)
Post-pandemic, a new openness to accommodating family needs has made it possible for more mothers and fathers to balance work and parenting — particularly mothers of young children.
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Noah Berlatsky @nberlat.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
me on how we know Trump doesn't have a magic button to win the midterms because he keeps thrashing around looking for a magic button. www.everythingishorrible.net/p/trump-woul...
everythingishorrible.net
Trump Wouldn’t Promise Cash If He’d Rigged the Midterms
He doesn’t have a plan.
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YouGov America @today.yougov.com · 29/09/2026
NEW Economist/YouGov Sep 25-28: The midterms Democrats' lead in the 2026 congressional race hits a new high: Likely voters back Democrats over Republicans 53% to 38%, a 16-point edge Among registered voters, the lead is 6 points yougov.com/en-us/articl...
A line chart of YouGov polling data with the headline: "Who is leading among registered voters and likely voters in the race for Congress in 2026."

The chart has the sub-headline: "In the elections for U.S. Congress in November, who will you vote for in the district where you live? (% of registered voters picking the Democratic candidate minus the % picking the Republican candidate)."

The chart has the note: "Note: Likely voters are U.S. adult citizens who meet two criteria: (1) They either are registered to vote or say they will be registered to vote by the November elections; and (2) They either say they will definitely vote in November or say they have already voted. The displayed question has been used since the August 14 - 17, 2026 survey. Prior surveys asked the question, "If the elections for U.S. Congress were being held today, who would you vote for in the district where you live?" Responses of "other," "not sure," "I would not vote," and "I will not vote" are not shown."
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Erica Chenoweth @chenoweth.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
My team at the NVA Lab has produced a new dashboard for exploring our data on US protests from Jan 2025-May 2026. This snapshot shows the 61k+ protest events (>14.6M+ recorded participants) active in the US since Trump's second inauguration. Link to dashboard in thread.
A platform displaying the data on US protests from the Crowd Counting Consortium. It includes a map of the US with counts of protest events in circular form overlaying the protests' locations. It also includes weekly tallies of protest events and participations, top protest issues, and various filters allowing users to explore events by location, issue, date, political valence, etc. The top of the image shows a total of 61,782 protests with 14,684,201 participants across 55 US states and territories from January 20, 2025 to May 31, 2026.
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Kevin M. Kruse @kevinmkruse.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
When they get back in power, Democrats need to go all-in on higher education. We need a campaign of reinvestment in public universities across the country that makes the Morrill Land-Grant Act look like nothing by comparison *and* a GI Bill of Rights-style program of tuition grants.
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Darin Self @darinself.com · 29/09/2026
I can't wait to make this guy lose in 2 years.
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Dave Calder @ldsfn.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
CD-02 contains the State Senate district that turned out its sitting Senator in the primary. He was also the president of the Utah State Senate. 👀
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The Salt Lake Tribune @sltrib.com · 28/09/2026
BREAKING: Trevor Lee has been charged with four felonies and has resigned from the Utah House of Representatives effective immediately.
sltrib.com
Breaking: State Rep. Trevor Lee charged with four felonies related to alleged mortgage fraud
State Rep. Trevor Lee was charged Monday with four felony counts related to alleged mortgage fraud and immediately resigned his House seat.
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Daniel Woodruff @danielmwoodruff.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
BREAKING: Utah state Rep. Trevor Lee has been charged with fraud www.ksl.com/article/5162... #utpol @ksl.com
ksl.com
Rep. Trevor Lee charged with fraud
State Rep. Trevor Lee is accused of forging applications to get a loan for his new home.
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Jacob S. Rugh @jakerugh.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
🔵Utah CD-02 is a rapidly left-trending district D +8 2020-24 (D +14 vs. USA Pres. R +6 swing) ⚠️UT-02 also site of huge voter revolt to proposed Stratos hyperscale data center 📈Polling + trends: UT-02 <R +18 2026 vs. R +31 in 2024 (~D +13 wave) Dem @petercrosby.bsky.social may reach 41%-49%👀
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G Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris.com · 24/09/2026
No president has ever gone into a midterm election as unpopular as Trump is today. Not even George W. Bush in 2006. Trump's net approval is twice as low as it was at this point in 2018. blog.fiftyplusone.news/p/no-preside...
blog.fiftyplusone.news
Democrats hit midterm high as Trump approval reaches new low
No president has gone into a midterm election this unpopular. Not even George W. Bush in 2006.
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Tressie McMillan Cottom @tressiemcphd.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
Most people have no idea how much international students are the lifeblood of higher education. But they’re about to learn. Sigh.
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Matt Novak @paleofuture.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
Todd Achilles, a veteran running for U.S. Senate in Idaho as an independent, has a new ad about starting wars.
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jamelle @jamellebouie.net · 23/09/2026
one thing i'm curious about is what republicans do if november is truly catastrophic. like, if we wake up and democrats have flipped iowa and kansas and florida and republican candidates have lost to independents in nebraska and montana. how do they react to trump?
bloomberg.com
Trump’s Grip on GOP Slips as Midterm Election Anxiety Sets In
As Donald Trump took an aggressive stance on the global stage at the United Nations on Tuesday, several Senate Republicans were breaking from the president back in Washington.
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Jacob S. Rugh @jakerugh.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
Excellent analysis. One tiny (but relevant) note re. Political Wire description linked to--the YouGov/Economist D +14 poll of likely voters actually asks the respondent whether they will vote for the *actual named party candidate for their congressional district* (not a generic ballot question)
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Jacob S. Rugh @jakerugh.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
LDS Civic Theology: How Latter-day Saints Can Sustain Democracy - Professor George Handley, BYU College of Humanities, and former Provo City Council Member youtu.be/UwEnoWpMUkM?...
youtu.be
LDS Civic Theology: How Latter-day Saints Can Sustain Democracy - George Handley
YouTube video by BYU Kennedy Center
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ElectionCord @electioncord.com · 22/09/2026
YouGov, in my opinion is one of the top pollsters in the game right now. They were clearly the most accurate pollsters of 2025, and when they show a D+14 Generic Ballot (LV), that to me is a bigger warning sign than even that Iowa Marist poll. LINK: d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/ec...
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Eric Umansky @ericumansky.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
What we already know about the latest ICE shooting: Agents drove into Wilber Rafael Garces Perez’s car An agent fired at Garces Perez 4 times--while he was still in the car The agents didn't give Garces Perez immediate medical attention They didn't have body-cams www.nytimes.com/2026/09/22/u...
nytimes.com
Videos Reveal New Details About ICE Shooting in Austin
A video analysis finds that a federal immigration officer was standing to the side of Wilber Rafael Garces Perez’s car when the officer apparently fired through the rear passenger window. But the even...
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Greg Sargent @gregsargent.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
Total collapse: 70% say his Iran war has hurt the US 75% say he has no plan for the war 76% say the war isn't worth the costs
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Darin Self @darinself.com · 21/09/2026
The Trump team thinks they won 2024 because they attacked trans people rather than realize they performed worse against the incumbent than basically every challenger party in the world. So yeah, run the same playbook while being the incumbent party that has made everyone worse off.
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Polling USA @usapolling.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
Texas - SD-09 Polling: Senate: 🔵Talarico: 52% 🔴Paxton: 41% Governor: 🔵Hinojosa: 49% 🔴Abbott: 40%* State Senate: 🔵Rehmet: 53%* 🔴Wambsganss: 39% Republican Internal / Sept 15, 2026 (Trump +17 District)
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Jonathan Bernstein @jonathanbernstein.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
By the way if Alaska actually shifts to a Dem-leaning state, everyone is going to have to rewrite their talking points about which party represents land (vs. people).
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Jacob S. Rugh @jakerugh.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
I'm attending David for Utah Campaign's event, “What the Flip? Day of Action to Flip Downtown Provo” - sign up now to join me! www.mobilize.us/mobilize/eve...
mobilize.us
What the Flip? Day of Action to Flip Downtown Provo · Mobilize
Join us in Downtown Provo to Knock Doors so that we can flip this Utah House seat and send a Democrat from Utah County to the legislature for the first time in modern history! Join for all or part o...
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G Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris.com · 18/09/2026
New analysis: Expert handicappers like the Cook Political Report are probably underestimating Democratic odds of winning the House by about 30 points. That's based on an analysis of their historical ratings, not polls or other models. www.gelliottmorris.com/p/2026-09-18...
gelliottmorris.com
The race raters are lowballing the Democrats
Based on my analysis of their historical ratings, Cook, Inside Elections and Sabato’s Crystal Ball are probably underestimating Democrats' House win probability by about 30 percentage points
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Brian Poindexter For Congress @poindexterforcongress.com · 19/09/2026
NEWS: Max Miller's billionaire friends are spending nearly $5 million to reelect him. They'll look past his history of abuse, because he votes to cut their taxes -- and stick you with the bill. I need your help to beat Max Miller.
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Charlie Warzel @cwarzel.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
spoke to Lina Khan today about the AI madness and what the hell we should be doing to hold these companies accountable (in a way that takes their power seriously but doesn't buy into every narrative) full pod coming in the AM!
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Connor Ewing @cmewing.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
Happy Constitution Day to all who (are compelled by Section 111(b) of Division J of Public Law 108-447 to) observe!
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Subscribe to Radio Free America (link in bio) @kleinman.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
BTW Siena has Talarico and Hinojosa doing a little better among white voters than Emerson but a LOT better with Latino voters and this is probably why
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Tamarra Kemsley @tamarrakemsley.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
Listening to @wkamaubell.bsky.social's interview with @kenjennings.bsky.social I realized something -- the affable know-it-all is deeply earnest. And even a little bit (lot a bit?) mad. www.sltrib.com/religion/202...
sltrib.com
Answer: Famous LDS game-show host who speaks out for trans rights. Question: Who is Ken Jennings?
“Jeopardy!” host Ken Jennings, who is a Latter-day Saint, opens up in a recent podcast about some of his political views, including his social media criticisms of ICE and anti-transgender policies.
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Hansi Lo Wang (he/him) @hansilowang.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
Eligible voters of the United States! Happy National Voter Registration Day! Not sure how to register to vote in the midterms? Or want to check your registration status? We have a guide for you at npr.org/vote
npr.org
How to register to vote and check your registration status
For the 2026 elections, NPR has collected deadlines and information on how to register to vote — online, in person or by mail — in every U.S. state and territory.
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Kevin Collins @kwcollins.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
These numbers from the latest @nytimes.com poll are just ... wow. D+8.5 on generic ballot, 7 point issue advantages on the economy and immigration (among other issues), and only 66% of *Republicans* say they want a congressional candidate who will support Trump nytimes.com/2026/09/15/u...
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David Schleicher @profschleich.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
❗New Article❗ The Great American Property Tax Freakout! Since 2024, many states have radically reshaped their property tax systems.The changes are an example of a national trend of carving out influential groups from taxation, in this case a majority group: homeowners papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
papers.ssrn.com
The Great American Property Tax Freak Out
There has been a lot of news over the last two years, so it is understandable that neither the mass media nor the legal academy has focused on what is happening
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Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
Nate Cohn providing support for the theory as well. “Overall, Democrats did nearly three points better on the named Senate ballots than they did on the generic congressional ballot in the same states.” www.nytimes.com/2026/09/15/u...
nytimes.com
A ‘Blue Wave’ May Be Building, but How High?
A Times/Siena national poll suggests Republicans are reeling. Can they come back by depicting Democrats as too far to the left?
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Opinion Haver @asinmarx.bsky.social · 12/09/2026
I made this chart as a guide for what different generical congressional ballot results would mean. Obviously Republicans are holding up better or worse in some places, but this the average partisanship of district you would expect would flip, given different GCBs/national environments.
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Jodi Jacobson @jljacobson.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
@washingtonpost.com “in a major victory the people of this country and the rule of law…”. Fixed it for you. I have to do this so often you should pay me.
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Rick Hasen @rickhasen.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
Breaking: Supreme Court, with Justices Thomas and Alito Publicly Dissenting, Continue Block on USPS Rule Through the Midterm Elections [Now updated with Analysis] electionlawblog.org/2026/breakin...
electionlawblog.org
Breaking: Supreme Court, with Justices Thomas and Alito Publicly Dissenting, Continue Block on USPS Rule Through the Midterm Elections [Now updated with Analysis] #ELB
You can find the ruling at this link. The Supreme Court, with the noted dissents of Justices Kavanaugh and Thomas, has rejected the government’s mendacious attempt to put its USPS mail ballot rule in ...
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The New York Times @nytimes.com · 15/09/2026
Breaking News: The Supreme Court blocked a Trump administration plan to dramatically change mail-in voting for the midterms. Follow live updates.
nyti.ms
Supreme Court Rejects Trump’s Restrictions on Mail Voting: Live Updates
The ruling blocks the Trump administration from dramatically changing how Americans vote by mail in the midterm elections.
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G Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris.com · 14/09/2026
Democrats have done a great job at recruiting candidates this cycle. In both House and Senate races, named candidates are out-polling the generic ballot www.gelliottmorris.com/p/2026-09-13...
gelliottmorris.com
If Democrats win, one reason will be great recruitment
Plus, Democrats hit +7 in our generic ballot average for the first time this cycle. Your weekly political data roundup for September 13, 2026.
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Jacob S. Rugh @jakerugh.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
“Utahns are not used to women having power,” said Susan Madsen, director of the women in leadership project at Utah State University and a member of both the Latter-day Saints church and the Republican Party. Now, she said, “it’s women who are using their voices.” www.nytimes.com/2026/09/13/u...
nytimes.com
A Gender War Explodes in Utah Over the Courts, Abortion and Representation (Gift Article)
When Republicans tried to repeal a law that voters passed banning gerrymandering, they found an opposition that flew in the face of Utah women’s “tradwives” imagery.
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Phil Lewis @phillewis.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
Police have arrested a man in the case of Tasia Fortune, the Black woman found hanging from a tree in Jackson, Mississippi
cnn.com
Mississippi police make arrest in Tasia Fortune case after medical examiner rules death a homicide | CNN
Police in Jackson, Mississippi, have arrested a man in the case of Tasia Fortune, the 29-year-old Black woman found hanging from a tree outside an abandoned house last month, following the state medic...
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Bryan Schott @schotthappens.com · 11/09/2026
Republicans already have supermajorities in the Utah House and Senate. November won't change that. But PAC spending shows which seats each party is fighting to protect or flip. Here's where the money is going: utahpolitics.news/utah-house-s...
utahpolitics.news
These are the Utah House and Senate races both parties are targeting in November
Campaign finance filings reveal where House and Senate leadership PACs, including Speaker Mike Schultz's, are placing their biggest bets.
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Jacob S. Rugh @jakerugh.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
As someone who lived through 9/11 and was helped home, where ash was on my windowsill, this is an incredibly meaningful message and a beautiful tribute to those who run toward each other, then and now. #NeverForget
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Mayor Zohran Kwame Mamdani @mayor.nyc.gov · 11/09/2026
25 years ago, terrorists killed nearly 3,000 people, including 2,753 New Yorkers. As we remember that terrible day, let us also remember the first responders, office workers and strangers who ran toward danger to help each other.
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Catherine Rampell @crampell.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
Since becoming president again, Trump has promised: -$5000 stimulus checks via "DOGE dividend" -$2000 stimulus checks via "tariff dividend" -$1000+ checks via "savings" from expiring ACA subsidies -$5000 "dividend" if Rs win midterms No checks have been issued www.thebulwark.com/p/trump-magi...
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Jacob S. Rugh @jakerugh.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
This year in Utah is like no other I've seen in Utah since I moved here in 2012 2026 YTD New Active Voters 🔵 DEM +9,363 (+3.9%) 🔴 REP -9,076 (-1.0%) #BlueWave #midterms #utpol
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Alan Wessman @alanwessman.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
We often think of impeachment as intended to remove an official from office; but don’t forget that it can also bar them from ever holding office in the future. Democrats should introduce articles of impeachment against Lewandowski right away and dare the Republicans to defend his corruption.
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Jacob S. Rugh @jakerugh.bsky.social · 07/09/2026
Wordle 1,906 2/6 ⬛🟩⬛🟨🟩 🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩
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Jacob S. Rugh @jakerugh.bsky.social · 07/09/2026
What Does A Blue Wave Look Like? by Ethan Chen decalibrate.substack.com/p/what-does-...
decalibrate.substack.com
What Does A Blue Wave Look Like?
A Statistical Evaluation of Midterms
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emptywheel @emptywheel.bsky.social · 06/09/2026
DHS is stealing Haitians money while they deport them. www.nytimes.com/2026/09/06/w...
nytimes.com
Haitians Deported From U.S. Are Left Broke and Stranded (Gift Article)
Hundreds have been deported to Haiti in recent weeks, and some say they have been left with no money, no protection from gangs and no place to go.
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