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Chaz Nuttycombe

@chaznuttycombe.bsky.social
5.8K followers 86 following 129 posts

I'm on X much more than here. Follow @statenavigate.org for our latest. Executive Director of @statenavigate.org, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit organization. VT Alumni. Opinions my own. Contact: chaz@statenavigate.org

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Chaz Nuttycombe @chaznuttycombe.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
All of our remaining forecasts are about to come out and we'll have a tally going but I believe we're looking at DEMs gaining 325 - 400 state legislative seats nationwide. In 2018 they gained 309. Ds may get a majority of state legislative seats and chambers if they slightly outperform our forecast
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Chaz Nuttycombe @chaznuttycombe.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
I've been talking with a lot of Republicans this week whom I've known for at least a few cycles across the country, N=15, and in my nine years of these kinds of background conversations with both sides of the aisle, I have never heard one side feel so doomed about an election.
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Chaz Nuttycombe @chaznuttycombe.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
VIRGINIA: Which member of the Virginia General Assembly are you closest to? Take our 20-question quiz looking at bills from this year's session. How would you vote? projects.statenavigate.com/interactives...
projects.statenavigate.com
Who votes like you? Virginia | State Navigate
Answer 20 questions about legislative votes in Virginia during the 2026 regular session. Compare your answers with the state’s legislators, and explore the bills behind your compatibility scores.
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Scott Clement @sfcpoll.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
Story features comments from @pollsandvotes.bsky.social votes.bsky.social & @chaznuttycombe.bsky.social on Wisconsin results and polls
votes.bsky.social
votes.bsky.social
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Chaz Nuttycombe @chaznuttycombe.bsky.social · 07/08/2026
We polled 5 state legislative races in Bucks County, PA, and 3 Republican incumbents are narrowly trailing their Democratic opponents. statenavigate.org/pennsylvania...
statenavigate.org
Will Josh Shapiro Get His Trifecta?
Josh Shapiro is on track to win re-election by a landslide. But will his coattails earn him a Democratic trifecta in Pennsylvania?
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Chaz Nuttycombe @chaznuttycombe.bsky.social · 29/07/2026
ICYMI statenavigate.org/wi/state-nav...
statenavigate.org
State Navigate Poll Shows Francesca Hong With 29-Point Lead in Wisconsin’s Democratic Governor Primary
Wisconsin Democrats are on the verge of nominating Francesca Hong, a Democratic Socialist, to be their nominee against Freedom Caucus Republican Tom Tiffany.
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Chaz Nuttycombe @chaznuttycombe.bsky.social · 27/07/2026
WI GOV DEM Primary poll out on @statenavigate.org at 12:30 PM Eastern tomorrow. Check my X for results.
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Chaz Nuttycombe @chaznuttycombe.bsky.social · 15/07/2026
SN GA GOV Poll, Friday
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Chaz Nuttycombe @chaznuttycombe.bsky.social · 11/07/2026
T-30 UNTIL WE SEND 44,609 TEXTS TO GEORGIA VOTERS 209 SO FAR GOAL: 250 NEW RESPONSES IN 24H WATCH NEW GOVERNOR RESPONSES POPULATE: projects.statenavigate.com/25-26/states...
projects.statenavigate.com
2026 Georgia Governor Live Polling
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Chaz Nuttycombe @chaznuttycombe.bsky.social · 11/07/2026
We're polling Georgia. Live. More texts being sent out 1PM Eastern tomorrow. See you then. projects.statenavigate.com/25-26/states...
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Decision Desk HQ @decisiondeskhq.bsky.social · 20/04/2026
Tomorrow is Election Day in Virginia. The Decision Desk HQ Podcast dove into the redistricting vote with @chaznuttycombe.bsky.social from @statenavigate.org. He noted how No can win if independents break for it, combined with solid Election Day turnout. decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/podcast-vi...
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Chaz Nuttycombe @chaznuttycombe.bsky.social · 15/04/2026
🔶NEW STATE NAVIGATE POLL🔶 VA Redistricting Referendum: Yes +5 Spanberger Approval: TIED 47-47 statenavigate.org/va/state-nav...
statenavigate.org
State Navigate Poll: Virginians are Divided on Governor Spanberger and Redistricting Referendum - State Navigate
Governor Spanberger is one of the most unpopular Governors in the country, and there's a competitive statewide race on the ballot this April.
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Chaz Nuttycombe @chaznuttycombe.bsky.social · 12/04/2026
Responses coming in. 1:00 - texted 3,000 women voters 1:15 - texted 4,000 voters aged 30-44 1:30 - texting 10,000 voters aged 18-29 1:45 - texting 3,000 black voters Check our map & timeline out or get left behind. projects.statenavigate.com/25-26/states...
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Chaz Nuttycombe @chaznuttycombe.bsky.social · 12/04/2026
We are once again, live in the field. Texts sending. Hop in. projects.statenavigate.com/25-26/states...
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Chaz Nuttycombe @chaznuttycombe.bsky.social · 12/04/2026
Final texts are being sent in one hour and 8 minutes. Poll closes 2PM on Monday. We're contacting young, black, and women voters to help our raw sample become almost perfect.
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Chaz Nuttycombe @chaznuttycombe.bsky.social · 11/04/2026
We're live, asking Virginia voters about the redistricting referendum. Watch us poll or get left behind. projects.statenavigate.com/25-26/states...
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Chaz Nuttycombe @chaznuttycombe.bsky.social · 10/04/2026
LIVE LIVE LIVE
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Chaz Nuttycombe @chaznuttycombe.bsky.social · 10/04/2026
VIRGINIA REDISTRICTING ELECTION POLL RESPONSES GOING LIVE AT NOON - HOP IN projects.statenavigate.com/25-26/states...
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Chaz Nuttycombe @chaznuttycombe.bsky.social · 03/04/2026
You'll wanna see this.
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Chaz Nuttycombe @chaznuttycombe.bsky.social · 03/04/2026
You'll wanna see this.
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Chaz Nuttycombe @chaznuttycombe.bsky.social · 02/04/2026
Today, @statenavigate.org is launching subscriptions for most of our data to help power our mission of opening in every state. Read more: statenavigate.org/sc/state-nav... Subscribe: projects.statenavigate.com/aws-auth-sub... WI Forecast goes live for subscribers TOMORROW.
statenavigate.org
State Navigate Launches Subscriptions - State Navigate
To help us complete our mission of launching nationwide, we're launching subscription services for most of our data.
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Chaz Nuttycombe @chaznuttycombe.bsky.social · 02/04/2026
Today, @statenavigate.org is launching subscriptions for most of our data to help power our mission of opening in every state. Read more: statenavigate.org/sc/state-nav... Subscribe: projects.statenavigate.com/aws-auth-sub... WI Forecast goes live for subscribers TOMORROW.
statenavigate.org
State Navigate Launches Subscriptions - State Navigate
To help us complete our mission of launching nationwide, we're launching subscription services for most of our data.
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State Navigate @statenavigate.org · 12/03/2026
Now Live: 2026 Redistricting Amendment Early Vote Tracker!
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Chaz Nuttycombe @chaznuttycombe.bsky.social · 06/02/2026
NEW: The full timeline of redistricting in VA this week and breakdown of new seats. Dan Helmer successfully secured himself a seat in Congress. statenavigate.org/map-favored-...
statenavigate.org
Map Favored by House of Delegates Becomes Virginia’s New Democratic Gerrymander - State Navigate
After nearly a week-long delay, both the House and Senate have reached an agreement regarding the redrawn Congressional maps ahead of the upcoming midterm elections.
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Chaz Nuttycombe @chaznuttycombe.bsky.social · 06/02/2026
NEW INTERACTIVE OF VA US HOUSE PROPOSAL projects.statenavigate.com/25-26/states...
projects.statenavigate.com
VA Proposed US House Districts
Learn about Virginia's proposed US House districts, including detailed maps, demographic data, and election results. Explore the new district boundaries and their impact on Virginia's political landsc...
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Chaz Nuttycombe @chaznuttycombe.bsky.social · 05/02/2026
WV Forecast out Tuesday at @statenavigate.org
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Chaz Nuttycombe @chaznuttycombe.bsky.social · 15/01/2026
We're #1.
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Chaz Nuttycombe @chaznuttycombe.bsky.social · 07/01/2026
HOLD ME NOW, I'M 6 FEET FROM THE EDGE AND I'M THINKIN'
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Chaz Nuttycombe @chaznuttycombe.bsky.social · 05/01/2026
Klobuchar isn't beatable, the real challenge is holding her to a win margin of less than 15.
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State Navigate @statenavigate.org · 01/01/2026
2026 is here! Happy New Years from State Navigate! 🎊
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Chaz Nuttycombe @chaznuttycombe.bsky.social · 31/12/2025
Happy Hogmanay y'all. If you'd like to support @statenavigate.org's 2026 expansion, make sure to make a tax-deductible 2025 donation in the remaining hours of the year! statenavigate.org/donate/
statenavigate.org
Donate - State Navigate
Support Our Mission! As a 501(c)(3) organization, donations to State Navigate are tax deductible! We're striving to make it easier to navigate state-level politics and make them more transparent for a...
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Chaz Nuttycombe @chaznuttycombe.bsky.social · 31/12/2025
Happy Hogmanay y'all. If you'd like to support @statenavigate.org's 2026 expansion, make sure to make a tax-deductible 2025 donation in the remaining hours of the year! statenavigate.org/donate/
statenavigate.org
Donate - State Navigate
Support Our Mission! As a 501(c)(3) organization, donations to State Navigate are tax deductible! We're striving to make it easier to navigate state-level politics and make them more transparent for a...
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Chaz Nuttycombe @chaznuttycombe.bsky.social · 14/12/2025
Welcome, to North Carolina Navigate. statenavigate.org/north-caroli...
statenavigate.org
North Carolina - State Navigate
District Data EXPLORE House Senate HEAR FROM OUR SUPPORTERS Donate All Donors *State Navigate does not endorse or support any candidate, campaign, PAC, or politician, regardless of financial contribut...
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Chaz Nuttycombe @chaznuttycombe.bsky.social · 13/12/2025
North Carolina @statenavigate.org out tomorrow
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State Navigate @statenavigate.org · 04/12/2025
Chaz Nuttycombe on Untold, a WTVR Podcast, discussing State Navigate’s goals and our great team!
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Dave Nuttycombe @nutco.bsky.social · 25/11/2025
When one Nuttycombe rises, we all rise!
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Chaz Nuttycombe @chaznuttycombe.bsky.social · 26/11/2025
Insane
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Chaz Nuttycombe @chaznuttycombe.bsky.social · 26/11/2025
Welcome, to Alaska Navigate. statenavigate.org/alaska/
statenavigate.org
Alaska - State Navigate
District Data EXPLORE House Senate campaign finance see more state news more news HEAR FROM OUR SUPPORTERS: DONATE Our Donors *State Navigate does not endorse or support any candidate, campaign, PAC, ...
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WTVR CBS 6 News Richmond, Virginia @cbs6-richmond.bsky.social · 20/11/2025
At just 26, Chaz Nuttycombe has taken the election prediction world by storm, becoming one of the most talked about and sought-after forecasters in the country.
wtvr.com
The Rise of Chaz Nuttycombe: Forecast is good for 26-year-old polling prognosticator
At just 26, Chaz Nuttycombe has taken the election prediction world by storm, becoming one of the most talked about and sought-after forecasters in the country.
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Chaz Nuttycombe @chaznuttycombe.bsky.social · 21/11/2025
Alaska Navigate comes out Wednesday.
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State Navigate @statenavigate.org · 18/11/2025
State Navigate turned out to be one of the most accurate pollsters in Virginia in 2025. Here's our analysis for why we beat the rest of the pack. statenavigate.org/why-polls-underes…
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Chaz Nuttycombe @chaznuttycombe.bsky.social · 07/11/2025
Fun story from 2017. When I first met @pwcdanica.bsky.social it was at an event when I was barely 18. I showed her my predictions for the House of Delegates which had her in a Likely D/Solid D race. She disagreed and said she was in a Toss-Up. She won by 8.
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Chaz Nuttycombe @chaznuttycombe.bsky.social · 07/11/2025
As a 26-year-old, I came up with the idea of sending our text messages to 18-29 year olds in lowercase to try to get them to respond to the survey. It worked like a charm. As a political scientist, so privileged to be working with Michael Foley on our polling. statenavigate.org/state-naviga...
statenavigate.org
State Navigate Experiment Shows how Pollsters Can Reach Young Voters - State Navigate
Cultural competence goes a long way. We knew young voters would come out in Virginia this year, so we made sure we got them to answer our surveys.
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Chaz Nuttycombe @chaznuttycombe.bsky.social · 06/11/2025
Too late WhichSide Digital did it
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Chaz Nuttycombe @chaznuttycombe.bsky.social · 05/11/2025
You can now go to @statenavigate.org and see shifts by precinct district and county in VA from 24 presidential. We have allocated non ED votes via formula where localities haven't allocated yet. projects.statenavigate.com/25-26/states...
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G Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris.com · 05/11/2025
meme bat signal
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Chaz Nuttycombe @chaznuttycombe.bsky.social · 05/11/2025
I'll make a deal with BlueSky: if someone on here does this I'll start posting on here more often www.youtube.com/watch?v=43j8...
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G Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris.com · 05/11/2025
the folks over at State Navigate also appear to have had a very good night with their forecasts in New Jersey and Virginia: projects.statenavigate.com/25-26/states... and their polling in VA (which I did the weighting for), both statewide and house districts, was also very good!
projects.statenavigate.com
2025 VA Forecasts
Take a look at State Navigate's 2025 Virginia forecasts.
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Chaz Nuttycombe @chaznuttycombe.bsky.social · 04/11/2025
LIVE www.youtube.com/live/sFs9LbM... docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
youtube.com
YouTube
Share your videos with friends, family, and the world
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Chaz Nuttycombe @chaznuttycombe.bsky.social · 03/11/2025
Final forecast t.co/7qcmYTDFp6
t.co
https://statenavigate.org/final-2025-virginia-forecasts-show-democrats-poised-to-win-virginia-elections/
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