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Nathaniel Rakich

@baseballot.bsky.social
20K followers 265 following 3.1K posts

Managing editor @votebeat.org. Previously senior editor and senior elections analyst at FiveThirtyEight. Email, don't DM: nrakich at votebeat dot org

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Nathaniel Rakich @baseballot.bsky.social · 17h
More like Michael K-ing, amirite
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Nathaniel Rakich @baseballot.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Support for Election Day registration is above 50%, but barely; top-two primaries struggling to break out of the low 40s.
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Jacob Rubashkin @rubashkin.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
There are a lot of eyes on Cornell right now. It’s moments like this where having an independent student press is most important, but doing that work has never been more difficult. Please support The Cornell Daily Sun in its mission for truth and accountability.
cornellsun.com
Support the Sun! - The Cornell Daily Sun
The Cornell Daily Sun - Independent Since 1880.
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Nathaniel Rakich @baseballot.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
Wyoming is one of 14 states that has never hosted a major-league baseball game.
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The Washington Post @washingtonpost.com · 27/09/2026
Exclusive: MLB approached the Trump administration about hosting a game at a national park, officials said, and Grand Teton was scouted. The Tetons are about “wildlife, opportunity for solitude, not for more amusement,” said the county commissioner. wapo.st/3Vh0N50
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Nathaniel Rakich @baseballot.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
After further reporting by @nataliaecm.bsky.social, we now know this error affected at least 200,000 should-be Texas voters. What a mess.
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Nathaniel Rakich @baseballot.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
The Big List of Political Scandals claims another victim: docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
docs.google.com
Big List of Political Scandals (by Federal & Statewide Officeholders Since 1990)
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Michael Li (李之樸) @mcpli.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
The Supreme Court has once again stepped in (for a third time) and restored Missouri’s 2022 congressional map in lieu of the gerrymandered 2025 map. www.supremecourt.gov/search.aspx?...
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Nathaniel Rakich @baseballot.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
The Supreme Court's ruling on the SAVE database shouldn't affect the 2026 election. Under federal law, you can't systematically remove voters from the rolls within 90 days of an election.
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Chris Geidner @chrisgeidner.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
BREAKING: SCOTUS allows DHS to use its Systematic Alien Verification for Entitlements (SAVE) database with Social Security info, staying a district court order that had vacated the new policy. Justice Jackson dissents for the three Dem appointees. www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/25p...
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Nathaniel Rakich @baseballot.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
"The most likely outcome at this point is that Democrats pick up five to 15 seats, resulting in Democrats holding 220 to 230 seats in 2027 … That range could shift further in Democrats’ favor over the next five weeks if Republicans are unable to effectively stem the bleeding."
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Sasha Hupka @sashahupka.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
OF NOTE: Gary Restaino, a former U.S. attorney in Arizona, suggested officials should have legal filings “already sketched out” in case they get served a subpoena during the upcoming election. And Pima County Attorney Laura Conover previously said she was "prepared to run into court" if needed. 👇
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Nathaniel Rakich @baseballot.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
Worried about federal interference in the midterms? So are some election officials—and they're preparing accordingly. www.votebeat.org/national/202...
votebeat.org
Election officials across the country prepare to fight potential Trump administration intervention in courts
Some elected leaders are drafting legal filings or holding simulations to prepare for possible federal intervention at the polls.
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Nathaniel Rakich @baseballot.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
The Bad News Babes win 22-16! It’s the highest-scoring #CWSG ever. Sharice Davids hit a grand slam; Tamara Keith went 4-for-4 with 6 RBI.
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Nathaniel Rakich @baseballot.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
After Congress rallied to tie the game 7-7 in the 4th, the Bad News Babes score 7 runs in the 5th to take a 14-7 lead. #CWSG
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Nathaniel Rakich @baseballot.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
A victory for pollsters.
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Nathaniel Rakich @baseballot.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
And the Press lineup! #CWSG 3B Cassie Semyon SS Gretchen Frazee LCF Reagan Reese 1B Bridget Bowman LF Emmarie Huetteman RCF Erica Hendry 2B Sarah Wire C Tamara Keith P Brianna Keilar DH Jen Bendery DH Emily Goodin DH Cicely Wedgeworth RF Lisa Desjardins DH Mica Soellner
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Nathaniel Rakich @baseballot.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
The Congress lineup for the 2026 #CWSG! 1B Julie Fedorchak LF Kim King-Hinds SS Sharice Davids 3B Shelley Moore Capito LCF Angie Craig DH Kat Cammack RCF Becca Balint 2B Debbie Wasserman Schultz C Kim Schrier RF Maxine Dexter P Kathy Castor
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Nathaniel Rakich @baseballot.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
It’s a beautiful day for softball! #CWSG
A softball diamond laid out on a soccer pitch
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Nathaniel Rakich @baseballot.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
It's game day for the Congressional Women's Softball Game! Will Team Congress or the Bad News Babes take home the W? I've got full stats here: www.tinyurl.com/cwsgstats
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Nathaniel Rakich @baseballot.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
This will be the third Fifth Third in baseball. The Toledo Mud Hens play at Fifth Third Field, and the Hub City Spartanburgers play at Fifth Third Park.
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Nathaniel Rakich @baseballot.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
Remember: SCOTUS said their previous hold on the 7-1 map would terminate only if they declined to consider this appeal. And the votes are almost certainly there to at least consider it.
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Nathaniel Rakich @baseballot.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
Wednesday...
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Nathaniel Rakich @baseballot.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
Wow. This is especially notable because Johnson is no moderate—she herself beat an incumbent in 2022 with the help of the GOP’s right flank.
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Washington Post Data Team @wpdatateam.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
The Washington Post's data reporting team is looking for next summer's intern. If you're a journalist who codes and has a knack for telling compelling stories through data analysis, apply! The deadline is Friday, Oct. 9, 2026. washpost.wd5.myworkdayjobs.com/en-US/washin...
washpost.wd5.myworkdayjobs.com
Newsroom Summer Internship Program 2027: Data Journalist
Application Instructions Please list all professional experience and explain any gaps in employment history. All of your application materials, which may include PDF files of work samples and/or links...
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Nathaniel Rakich @baseballot.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
Excellent resource from the National Association of State Election Directors with all the key dates for the election in every state: when mail ballots go out, certification deadlines, etc. www.nased.org/2026dates
nased.org
2026 General Election Administrative Dates and Deadlines — NASED
2026 Administrative Dates & Deadlines
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Nathaniel Rakich @baseballot.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
I think it’s a mistake to view quantitative models and race ratings as in conflict. We researched this at FiveThirtyEight, and found that both have strengths and weaknesses!
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Nathaniel Rakich @baseballot.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
One week from today is the Congressional Softball Game. It’s a ton of fun and all ticket sales go to charity. Plus, you might see me there! What are you waiting for, buy your ticket already! www.gofevo.com/event/2026CWSG
gofevo.com
2026 Congressional Women's Softball Game
9/23/26 @ 5:30 PM - 2026 Congressional Women's Softball Game
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Nathaniel Rakich @baseballot.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
Today is the final primary of the 2026 midterms! Polls close in Delaware at 8pm.
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Nathaniel Rakich @baseballot.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
The Supreme Court has ruled on Trump’s mail ballot restrictions for 2026. Their long-term fate remains an open question, but today 6 justices indicated they lean toward them being illegal. bit.ly/4j3xTz4
bit.ly
Supreme Court deals fatal blow to Trump’s mail ballot restrictions for 2026
The ruling means voters won’t face new hurdles to mail voting in 2026.
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Chris Geidner @chrisgeidner.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
BREAKING: SCOTUS denies the Trump administration’s request to enforce the new U.S. Postal Service rule for the 2026 elections. Justices Alito and Thomas dissent. More to come at Law Dork. www.lawdork.com
SUPREME COURT OF THE UNITED STATES
No. 26A305
UNITED STATES POSTAL SERVICE, ET AL. U.
CALIFORNIA, ET AL.
ON APPLICATION FOR STAY
[September 14, 2026]
The application for stay presented to JUSTICE JACKSON and by her referred to the Court is denied. The Government is unlikely to succeed on the merits of its challenge to the District Court's preliminary injunction. And the equitable factors applicable for obtaining emergency relief from this Court do not favor a stay.
JUSTICE KAVANAUGH, concurring.
In my view, based on the briefing the Court has received at this interim stage, there is at least a fair prospect that the final rule falls within the Postal Service's statutory authority. See 39 U. S. C. §401(2). But applying the rule in the 2026 elections would be arbitrary and capricious in violation of the Administrative Procedure Act because state and local election officials do not have sufficient time to reasonably implement the rule before the elections. See 39
U. S. C. §3001(m); 5 U. S. C. §706(2)(A). For that reason, I concur in the denial of the application for stay.
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Nathaniel Rakich @baseballot.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
This event is tomorrow! Four extremely plugged-in Votebeat reporters will answer your questions about the administration of the midterms. www.eventbrite.com/e/will-the-m...
eventbrite.com
Will the midterms happen? Your election questions, answered | Part 2
Submit your election questions to Votebeat reporters, and they’ll answer them live on Sept. 15 at 1 p.m. EDT.
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Steve Vladeck @stevevladeck.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
One clarification: it’s the full Supreme Court, not Kavanaugh. But otherwise, yes: bsky.app/profile/stev...
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Nathaniel Rakich @baseballot.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
I believe this means the 2026 map is decided. Kavanaugh is basically saying, use the 6-2 map until the full case makes its way up to SCOTUS on the merits docket. But that wouldn't happen until after Election Day, so effectively, Dems get what they want.
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Jamie Dupree @jamiedupree.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
Justice Kavanaugh has blocked - for now - a lower court move to keep the GOP's 7R-1D map in Missouri. At this time, the November election would be held under the original 6R-2D map. (At this time.) www.supremecourt.gov/orders/court...
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Taniel @taniel.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
The Trump administration is investigating the Utah lieutenant governor because she didn’t hand over sensitive voter data. She says other election officials told her they’re being investigated too. www.sltrib.com/news/politic...
sltrib.com
Trump’s DOJ is investigating Utah’s election chief for refusing to hand over voter data, it says in letter
The Justice Department has warned Lt. Gov. Deidre Henderson that she is under investigation for not complying with the Trump administration's demands for voter information. Meanwhile, Henderson has we...
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Jen Fifield @jenafifield.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
Exclusive @propublica.org: Some U.S. Postal Service facilities failed to properly handle ballots during primary elections, according to new audit. The findings come as the Supreme Court weighs whether to allow USPS to regulate mail ballots during the Nov election www.propublica.org/article/post...
propublica.org
U.S. Postal Service Failed to Properly Handle Some Ballots During This Year’s Primary Elections, Audit Finds
An inspector general’s audit found a lack of training for post office staff, deficiencies in how ballots were tracked and errors leading to delays. Experts say it raises questions ahead of the midterm...
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Nathaniel Rakich @baseballot.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
Next stop, SCOTUS...
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Nathaniel Rakich @baseballot.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
The U.S. Supreme Court says it will not take up Missouri's appeal of the Missouri Supreme Court ruling on its congressional map. The 6-2 map will officially be used in 2026.
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Nathaniel Rakich @baseballot.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
Happy primary day, New Hampshire! Polls close in key races like #NHsen and #NH01 at 7pm in some cities, 8pm in the rest of the state.
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Mike Petriello @mikepetriello.bsky.social · 07/09/2026
Pete Crow-Armstrong has faced 28 teams and 286 pitchers in 22 stadiums so far this season, which isn't over yet Joe DiMaggio faced 7 teams and 321 pitchers in 9 stadiums in his entire (regular season) career, which spanned 13 seasons between 1936-1951. It's a different sport now.
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Nathaniel Rakich @baseballot.bsky.social · 06/09/2026
This is the one, folks. SCOTUS's ruling on this will decide whether these mail-ballot restrictions will be in place in November.
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Nathaniel Rakich @baseballot.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
Lots of incremental legal updates in the fight over Trump’s mail-voting executive order, but basically this just means the order is still blocked until a higher court says otherwise.
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Nathaniel Rakich @baseballot.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
Missouri update: It sounds like the winners of the August primary would be the candidates in November under the 6-2 map—even though the primary was conducted under the 7-1 map.
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Nathaniel Rakich @baseballot.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
Today marks 60 days until Election Day, which means the 2026 midterms are officially underway. The first ballots go out today in North Carolina!
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Nathaniel Rakich @baseballot.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
@capitalweather.com As the storm was rolling in…
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Nathaniel Rakich @baseballot.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
Readers of @votebeat.org knew this was a possibility back in June! www.votebeat.org/national/202...
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Nathaniel Rakich @baseballot.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
The AP has called the #MA08 Democratic primary for incumbent Rep. Stephen Lynch. He fends off his latest progressive challenger, Patrick Roath, 57–43% (as of 76% reporting).
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Nathaniel Rakich @baseballot.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
The AP has called the #MA01 Democratic primary for Rep. Richie Neal. However, he’s beating challenger Jeromie Whalen just 54–46% (with 78% of the vote in)—even closer than his 2020 race against Holyoke Mayor Alex Morse.
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Nathaniel Rakich @baseballot.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
The AP has called the #MA06 Democratic primary: establishment-aligned Dan Koh beats more progressive Tram Nguyen. This is Seth Moulton's old seat and is solidly Democratic for the general.
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