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Tobias Tober

@tobiastober.bsky.social
2.1K followers 587 following 32 posts

Comparative political economy @unikonstanz.bsky.social • European integration, technological change, green transition, welfare state, Bayesian statistics. tobiastober.github.io

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Tobias Tober @tobiastober.bsky.social · 04/09/2025
Cool paper, @nilsblossey.bsky.social!
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Ethan Mollick @emollick.bsky.social · 09/08/2025
The current state of AI for sustained work: exponential progress continues with no unexpected leaps but also no walls. (The METR measure is just one of many benchmarks, and like all benchmarks has flaws, but also has the advantage of have neither a ceiling or floor effect) metr.org/blog/2025-03...
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Marios Richards @mariosrichards.bsky.social · 30/07/2025
Irritating Discourse Cliche - "The Public Are Frustrated With Mainstream Politics" - up there with vague references to "the dangers of populism". Look at the last century of democratic politics - * Pre WW2 * Post-War * Post-Post-War
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WIRED @wired.com · 29/07/2025
New AI regulations suggested by the White House mirror changes to environmental permitting suggested by Meta and a lobbying group representing firms like Google and Amazon Web Services. www.wired.com/story/big-te...
wired.com
Big Tech Asked for Looser Clean Water Act Permitting. Trump Wants to Give It to Them
New AI regulations suggested by the White House mirror changes to environmental permitting suggested by Meta and a lobbying group representing firms like Google and Amazon Web Services.
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Joris Frese @fresejoris.bsky.social · 01/07/2025
New WP w/ @riazsascha.bsky.social: via >42 million placebo tests, we show type I error inflation in Unexpected Event during Survey Designs (UESD), propose an adjustment, implement via new R package uesdRobust, and demonstrate utility by replicating two top UESD studies. osf.io/preprints/os... 1/9
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Tobias Tober @tobiastober.bsky.social · 18/04/2025
Cool paper showing that unemployment risks causally increase demand for welfare state insurance (in Denmark): doi.org/10.1111/ajps...
doi.org
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Tobias Tober @tobiastober.bsky.social · 08/04/2025
@mbusemeyer.bsky.social, @slstutzmann.bsky.social, and I have a new article in the special issue "Greening the Economy: Toward a New Political Economy" in @reggovjournal.bsky.social, now out in print. The article is open access — read it here: dx.doi.org/10.1111/rego...
dx.doi.org
Digitalization and the green transition: Different challenges, same policy responses?
How do citizens perceive labor market risks related to digitalization and the green transition, and how do these risk perceptions translate into preferences for social policies? We address these ques...
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Tobias Tober @tobiastober.bsky.social · 06/04/2025
I've been a huge fan of Mr. Hussman's monthly market comments for years. Always informative and thought-provoking, he goes well beyond market analysis, weaving in broader social and economic themes. Just brilliant. Highly recommend!
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Christian Breunig @breunig.eurosky.social · 31/03/2025
Terrific lineup for our Comparative Politics & Political Economy series this summer,incl @clandwehr.bsky.social @finseraas.bsky.social @eunjikim.bsky.social @ccavaille.bsky.social @anewq.bsky.social & @valentimvicente.bsky.social . Thanks for organizing @tobiastober.bsky.social @na-wehl.bsky.social
Comparative Politics and Political Economy speaker series at the University of Konstanz
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Tobias Tober @tobiastober.bsky.social · 18/03/2025
We just launched a call for a workshop and special issue proposal on "The Politics of AI"! Excited to see many great submissions—join us in Oxford!
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Tobias Tober @tobiastober.bsky.social · 18/03/2025
We just launched a call for a workshop and special issue proposal on "The Politics of AI"! Excited to see many great submissions—join us in Oxford!
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Dimiter Toshkov @dtoshkov.bsky.social · 14/03/2025
How do attitudes to 🇪🇺 European integration relate to political ideology and policy preferences? A major update of my study: - I added the latest 2023 ESS data for citizens and 2024 CHES data for parties - I built an app to explore these relationships across datasets, indicators, years & countries
Average support for further European integration of citizens (blue line, based on GAM with cubic regression splines) and positive orientation towards European integration of political parties (black dots and red line, based on a local polynomial regression) as functions of left-right self-placement of the citizens and general left-right party positions as estimated by experts. Originally, party positions on European integration are scored on a 1-to-7 scale, which has been rescaled from 0 to 10 to match the public opinion data. Data: ESS Wave 11 (2023), CHES (2024).
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Tobias Tober @tobiastober.bsky.social · 12/03/2025
I'm not a China expert, just an interested observer. But if you compare how China regularly celebrates the return of successful scientists with the way science is being treated in the US under Trump, the contrast could hardly be greater.
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Carlisle Rainey 👨‍💻📊📚 @carlislerainey.bsky.social · 10/03/2025
“The Rise of Affective Polarization: Is It What We Think, or Who We Are?” by John Konicki Preprint: osf.io/preprints/osf...
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Caroline de Gruyter @carolinedegruyter.bsky.social · 04/03/2025
Important: Commission plan ‘Rearm Europe’ will not require unanimity. Hungary and Slovakia cannot block it on their own ec.europa.eu/commission/p...
ec.europa.eu
Press statement by President von der Leyen on the defence package
We are living in the most momentous and dangerous of times. I do not need to describe the grave nature of the threats that we face. Or the devastating consequences that we will have to endure if those
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Toni Rodon @tonirodon.bsky.social · 04/03/2025
Trade with less developed countries reduces unionization in rich democracies. Global value chains lead to union decline even in countries with the most union-friendly institutions journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10....
journals.sagepub.com
Global Value Chains and Union Decline in Rich Democracies - Matthew C. Mahutga, Manjing Gao, Roshan K. Pandian, 2025
This article reassesses the classic thesis linking the globalization of production to union decline. Our argument is three-fold. First, prior literature does no...
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Ben Ansell @benansell.bsky.social · 28/02/2025
Well, the next Boris Johnson column is going to be a doozy
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Claes de Vreese @claesdevreese.bsky.social · 27/02/2025
Big tech has a tremendous impact on democracy 🚨New report out w focus on misinformation, content moderation & generative AI Team @anjabechmann.bsky.social @adler-nissen.bsky.social @madshovethy.bsky.social @golovchenko.bsky.social @fghjorth.bsky.social👏 Details⬇️ www.linkedin.com/posts/claes-...
linkedin.com
Claes de Vreese on LinkedIn: Big tech has a tremendous impact on our democracies and societies. We…
Big tech has a tremendous impact on our democracies and societies. We presented our new report at a public hearing in The Danish Parliament - Folketinget. The…
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Christian Breunig @breunig.eurosky.social · 25/02/2025
Come work with us! In my research group, we have two four-year PhD positions available in comparative politics. Happy to answer questions per email. Please share the ad. You can find the ad here: stellen.uni-konstanz.de/jobposting/d...
job ad for PhD positions in Comparative Politics at the University of Konstanz
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Tobias Tober @tobiastober.bsky.social · 24/02/2025
Erstaunlich, wie aktuell dieses Strauß-Interview von Günter Gaus—aufgenommen kurz nach der Niederschlagung des Prager Frühlings—heute wirkt: youtu.be/DI7Kw9TWS98?...
youtu.be
Günter Gaus im Gespräch mit Franz Josef Strauß (1968)
YouTube video by Leo Dietrich
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Jeremy Wallace @jeremywallace.bsky.social · 24/02/2025
DeepSunk
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Yiqing Xu @yiqingxu.bsky.social · 21/02/2025
We streamlined six new DID-like estimators and created this tutorial for implementation in R. yiqingxu.org/packages/fec... Hope you no longer need to spend months figuring out what these estimators are and how to use them.
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Adam Przeworski @adamprz.bsky.social · 19/02/2025
I am keeping a diary of daily events, as they unfold open.substack.com/pub/adamprze... It is available to everyone. I am new to Substack, so please let me know if something is wrong with the link or the file.
open.substack.com
Diary
Week 1
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Tobias Tober @tobiastober.bsky.social · 18/02/2025
Last week, Sharon Baute and I were honored to receive the In_equality ECR Excellence Award from @excinequality.bsky.social for our recent paper in @bjpols.bsky.social! 🎉 #HonoredToBeHonored (hashtag credit to the great Tom Waits)
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American Political Science Review @apsrjournal.bsky.social · 18/02/2025
From our new issue: "Explaining Rural Conservatism: Political Consequences of Technological Change in the Great Plains" by Aditya Dasgupta and Elena Ramirez. #APSRNewIssue www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
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Johanna Rickne @johannarickne.bsky.social · 24/01/2025
Read our new paper on how the economic empowerment of one generation of women drives greater political officeholding for the next 💪✨
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Max-Planck-Institut für Gesellschaftsforschung (MPIfG) @mpifg.bsky.social · 17/02/2025
The application deadline for doctoral positions in #PoliticalEconomy and #EconomicSociology is fast approaching. We look forward to receiving your application by February 28. 👉 career.mpifg.de/jobposting/9... 👉 career.mpifg.de/jobposting/1...
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Will Jennings📉🗳️ @drjennings.bsky.social · 12/02/2025
Our article 'A Crisis of Political Trust?' led by @viktorv.bsky.social is now out in @bjpols.bsky.social! We use >3,000 surveys in 143 countries between 1958 and 2019, finding that trust in representative institutions has generally been declining in recent decades. www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
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Liesbet Hooghe @liesbethooghe.bsky.social · 07/02/2025
We find that (1) education structures voting for GAL and TAN parties in Western Europe; (2) social structuration is as high as for classic social democratic parties in the 1950s; (3) education structures also Republicans and Democrats. Open access, and on our homepages.
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Aina Gallego @ainagallego.bsky.social · 06/02/2025
Please apply to the workshop "The Politics of AI: Actors, Policy, Geopolitics, and Resistances" (Barcelona, October 2-3). We seek empirical work on key actors, lobby and regulatory activities, and political conflict related to AI and Big Tech. Submission: forms.gle/o4rwT9km3iPX... by February 28.
forms.gle
Politics of Technology and AI Workshop -IBEI 2025
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Daniel Huppmann @danielhuppmann.bsky.social · 06/02/2025
What are public perceptions on climate change and carbon-dioxide removal around the world? The survey dataset by @chadmbaum.bsky.social @liviafritz.bsky.social et al is now available via the #GENIE CDR Knowledge Hub... 📝 cdr.apps.ece.iiasa.ac.at/story/2025_0...
Worry about Climate Change across thirty countries, on a 1-5 scale (1=, 5= Extremely) with N=30,284 participants (at least 1,000 participants in each country). 

In all surveyed countries, more than 75% of survey participants are somewhat or more worried about climate change.

Re-produced from Baum et al. (2025), Risk Analysis.
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British Journal of Political Science @bjpols.bsky.social · 31/01/2025
#OpenAccess from our new issue - European Institutional Integration and the Educational Divide in Support for the European Union - cup.org/4h4nShk - Sharon Baute & @tobiastober.bsky.social
BJPolS abstract about the history of European integration and the transformation of public attitudes towards the European Union from 1950, focusing on survey data and statistical analysis.
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Aina Gallego @ainagallego.bsky.social · 28/01/2025
📢 Our new paper in Political Analysis explains how to use LLMs like GPT-4o, Llama or Mistral to estimate the ideological and policy position of political texts. Our approach is fast, reliable, cost-effective and reproducible and works with texts written in different languages 1/7 cup.org/4axBEXo
cup.org
Positioning Political Texts with Large Language Models by Asking and Averaging | Political Analysis | Cambridge Core
Positioning Political Texts with Large Language Models by Asking and Averaging
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Tobias Tober @tobiastober.bsky.social · 03/12/2024
Excited to share a new publication with Sharon Baute! In our latest paper @bjpols.bsky.social , we explore how the growing educational divide in EU support is partly shaped by European institutional integration itself. Check it out here, it's open access:
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Claes de Vreese @claesdevreese.bsky.social · 19/12/2024
Too big to regulate? Some first instruments are now in play, under the Digital Services Act #DSA. And the @ec.europa.eu is using it! The EC opens proceedings against #TikTok to investigate how it handles risks to elections (recommender systems and political ads/content) ec.europa.eu/commission/p...
ec.europa.eu
Commission opens formal proceedings against TikTok on election risks under the Digital Services Act
Today, the Commission has opened formal proceedings against TikTok for a suspected breach of the DSA in relation to TikTok's obligation to properly assess and mitigate systemic risks linked to electio...
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Ben Keys @benkeys.bsky.social · 11/12/2024
Wow. Go read an absolutely blistering report (w/tons of charts) from the World Economic Forum on the massive cost of Climate Inaction: "Rising climate risks are already impacting the global economy and the business case for collective action is clear" reports.weforum.org/docs/WEF_The...
reports.weforum.org
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The Politics of Inequality @excinequality.bsky.social · 04/12/2024
Check out the newest paper of our #inequality Cluster members Sharon Baute & @tobiastober.bsky.social @unikonstanz.bsky.social #OpenAccess
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Carlisle Rainey 👨‍💻📊📚 @carlislerainey.bsky.social · 04/12/2024
Here's a provocative new paper "Confronting the New Gatekeepers of Experimental Political Science" doi.org/10.33774/aps...
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Evelyne Hübscher @evehubscher.bsky.social · 04/12/2024
My unit (Department of Public Policy at CEU, Vienna) is hiring!We’re looking for candidates with excellent skills in quantitative methods (specifically text mining, natural language processing, machine learning). Link to full call: careers.ceu.edu/job/Vienna-A... Happy to answer questions!
careers.ceu.edu
Assistant Professor (f/m/d)
Assistant Professor (f/m/d)
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Tobias Tober @tobiastober.bsky.social · 03/12/2024
Excited to share a new publication with Sharon Baute! In our latest paper @bjpols.bsky.social , we explore how the growing educational divide in EU support is partly shaped by European institutional integration itself. Check it out here, it's open access:
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Anne Applebaum @anneapplebaum.wsocial.eu · 02/12/2024
"While Silicon Valley has always wielded influence in American politics, what's emerging now is different – a world where the interests of select technology companies become indistinguishable from US government policy" www.techpolicy.press/on-the-comin...
techpolicy.press
On the Coming Merger of Tech and State Power | TechPolicy.Press
Taylor Owen writes that the merger of state and tech power is a fundamental challenge to democratic governance in the digital age.
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Joris Frese @fresejoris.bsky.social · 30/11/2024
🇬🇧🇪🇺 Published Today in EJPR 🇬🇧🇪🇺 @simonhix.bsky.social @juhoharkonen.bsky.social and I find that 1/3 of the anti-Brexit shift in the UK can be attributed to the impact of cohort replacement (old voters dying, young people becoming eligible to vote)! 1/12 ejpr.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...
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Maarten Hermans @mhermans.net · 28/11/2024
As long as social class is visible in the average body height, the "death of class"-thesis is quite overblow.
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Moritz Marbach @moritz-marbach.com · 30/08/2024
🚨New Tool: paper-picnic.com The latest published political science research (and research in adjacent fields) every Friday. No alert chaos, no registration, no clutter. Powered by @crossref.bsky.social
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Lukas Haffert @lhaffert.bsky.social · 29/11/2024
Powerful map illustrating 100 years of economic change in West Germany, from this paper by Paul Berbée, @sebastiantbraun.bsky.social and Richard Franke: link.springer.com/article/10.1...
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Florian Ederer @florianederer.bsky.social · 27/11/2024
Some of the most important lottery anomalies from the behavioral risk literature (e.g., probability weighting and loss aversion) actually have nothing to do with risk. They also arise in perfectly deterministic settings. Lead article in the latest AER issue: www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=...
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Lukas Haffert @lhaffert.bsky.social · 26/11/2024
There is a general assumption that urban-rural divides in politics have increased across Western Democracies in recent decades. But is this really case? Or are we just extrapolating from the US? A recent paper by @twanhuijsmans.bsky.social and Jonathan Rodden provides comparative evidence. 1/c
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Tobias Tober @tobiastober.bsky.social · 25/11/2024
I made some updates to the website, including adding a Bluesky button and removing the button for the old place-that-shall-not-be-named. See here: tobiastober.github.io
tobiastober.github.io
Tobias Tober
I am a postdoctoral researcher in political science at the University of Konstanz. I am a member of the Department of Politics and Public Administration, the Cluster of Excellence The Politics of Ineq...
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