Reposted by Tobias ToberEthan Mollick @emollick.bsky.social · 09/08/2025The current state of AI for sustained work: exponential progress continues with no unexpected leaps but also no walls. (The METR measure is just one of many benchmarks, and like all benchmarks has flaws, but also has the advantage of have neither a ceiling or floor effect) metr.org/blog/2025-03... 1284
Reposted by Tobias ToberMarios Richards @mariosrichards.bsky.social · 30/07/2025Irritating Discourse Cliche - "The Public Are Frustrated With Mainstream Politics" - up there with vague references to "the dangers of populism". Look at the last century of democratic politics - * Pre WW2 * Post-War * Post-Post-War 3219
Reposted by Tobias ToberWIRED @wired.com · 29/07/2025New AI regulations suggested by the White House mirror changes to environmental permitting suggested by Meta and a lobbying group representing firms like Google and Amazon Web Services. www.wired.com/story/big-te...wired.comBig Tech Asked for Looser Clean Water Act Permitting. Trump Wants to Give It to ThemNew AI regulations suggested by the White House mirror changes to environmental permitting suggested by Meta and a lobbying group representing firms like Google and Amazon Web Services. 916689
Reposted by Tobias ToberJoris Frese @fresejoris.bsky.social · 01/07/2025New WP w/ @riazsascha.bsky.social: via >42 million placebo tests, we show type I error inflation in Unexpected Event during Survey Designs (UESD), propose an adjustment, implement via new R package uesdRobust, and demonstrate utility by replicating two top UESD studies. osf.io/preprints/os... 1/9 49436
Tobias Tober @tobiastober.bsky.social · 18/04/2025Cool paper showing that unemployment risks causally increase demand for welfare state insurance (in Denmark): doi.org/10.1111/ajps...doi.org 070
Tobias Tober @tobiastober.bsky.social · 08/04/2025@mbusemeyer.bsky.social, @slstutzmann.bsky.social, and I have a new article in the special issue "Greening the Economy: Toward a New Political Economy" in @reggovjournal.bsky.social, now out in print. The article is open access — read it here: dx.doi.org/10.1111/rego...dx.doi.orgDigitalization and the green transition: Different challenges, same policy responses?How do citizens perceive labor market risks related to digitalization and the green transition, and how do these risk perceptions translate into preferences for social policies? We address these ques... 070
Tobias Tober @tobiastober.bsky.social · 06/04/2025I've been a huge fan of Mr. Hussman's monthly market comments for years. Always informative and thought-provoking, he goes well beyond market analysis, weaving in broader social and economic themes. Just brilliant. Highly recommend! 1111
Reposted by Tobias ToberChristian Breunig @breunig.eurosky.social · 31/03/2025Terrific lineup for our Comparative Politics & Political Economy series this summer,incl @clandwehr.bsky.social @finseraas.bsky.social @eunjikim.bsky.social @ccavaille.bsky.social @anewq.bsky.social & @valentimvicente.bsky.social . Thanks for organizing @tobiastober.bsky.social @na-wehl.bsky.social 12814
Reposted by Tobias ToberTobias Tober @tobiastober.bsky.social · 18/03/2025We just launched a call for a workshop and special issue proposal on "The Politics of AI"! Excited to see many great submissions—join us in Oxford! 1189
Tobias Tober @tobiastober.bsky.social · 18/03/2025We just launched a call for a workshop and special issue proposal on "The Politics of AI"! Excited to see many great submissions—join us in Oxford! 1189
Reposted by Tobias ToberDimiter Toshkov @dtoshkov.bsky.social · 14/03/2025How do attitudes to 🇪🇺 European integration relate to political ideology and policy preferences? A major update of my study: - I added the latest 2023 ESS data for citizens and 2024 CHES data for parties - I built an app to explore these relationships across datasets, indicators, years & countries 26021
Tobias Tober @tobiastober.bsky.social · 12/03/2025I'm not a China expert, just an interested observer. But if you compare how China regularly celebrates the return of successful scientists with the way science is being treated in the US under Trump, the contrast could hardly be greater. 020
Reposted by Tobias ToberCarlisle Rainey 👨💻📊📚 @carlislerainey.bsky.social · 10/03/2025“The Rise of Affective Polarization: Is It What We Think, or Who We Are?” by John Konicki Preprint: osf.io/preprints/osf... 043
Reposted by Tobias ToberCaroline de Gruyter @carolinedegruyter.bsky.social · 04/03/2025Important: Commission plan ‘Rearm Europe’ will not require unanimity. Hungary and Slovakia cannot block it on their own ec.europa.eu/commission/p...ec.europa.euPress statement by President von der Leyen on the defence packageWe are living in the most momentous and dangerous of times. I do not need to describe the grave nature of the threats that we face. Or the devastating consequences that we will have to endure if those 27545190
Reposted by Tobias ToberToni Rodon @tonirodon.bsky.social · 04/03/2025Trade with less developed countries reduces unionization in rich democracies. Global value chains lead to union decline even in countries with the most union-friendly institutions journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10....journals.sagepub.comGlobal Value Chains and Union Decline in Rich Democracies - Matthew C. Mahutga, Manjing Gao, Roshan K. Pandian, 2025This article reassesses the classic thesis linking the globalization of production to union decline. Our argument is three-fold. First, prior literature does no... 12510
Reposted by Tobias ToberBen Ansell @benansell.bsky.social · 28/02/2025Well, the next Boris Johnson column is going to be a doozy 2491
Reposted by Tobias ToberClaes de Vreese @claesdevreese.bsky.social · 27/02/2025Big tech has a tremendous impact on democracy 🚨New report out w focus on misinformation, content moderation & generative AI Team @anjabechmann.bsky.social @adler-nissen.bsky.social @madshovethy.bsky.social @golovchenko.bsky.social @fghjorth.bsky.social👏 Details⬇️ www.linkedin.com/posts/claes-...linkedin.comClaes de Vreese on LinkedIn: Big tech has a tremendous impact on our democracies and societies. We…Big tech has a tremendous impact on our democracies and societies. We presented our new report at a public hearing in The Danish Parliament - Folketinget. The… 1339
Reposted by Tobias ToberChristian Breunig @breunig.eurosky.social · 25/02/2025Come work with us! In my research group, we have two four-year PhD positions available in comparative politics. Happy to answer questions per email. Please share the ad. You can find the ad here: stellen.uni-konstanz.de/jobposting/d... 11716
Tobias Tober @tobiastober.bsky.social · 24/02/2025Erstaunlich, wie aktuell dieses Strauß-Interview von Günter Gaus—aufgenommen kurz nach der Niederschlagung des Prager Frühlings—heute wirkt: youtu.be/DI7Kw9TWS98?...youtu.beGünter Gaus im Gespräch mit Franz Josef Strauß (1968)YouTube video by Leo Dietrich 000
Reposted by Tobias ToberYiqing Xu @yiqingxu.bsky.social · 21/02/2025We streamlined six new DID-like estimators and created this tutorial for implementation in R. yiqingxu.org/packages/fec... Hope you no longer need to spend months figuring out what these estimators are and how to use them. 632797
Reposted by Tobias ToberAdam Przeworski @adamprz.bsky.social · 19/02/2025I am keeping a diary of daily events, as they unfold open.substack.com/pub/adamprze... It is available to everyone. I am new to Substack, so please let me know if something is wrong with the link or the file.open.substack.comDiaryWeek 1 16443162
Tobias Tober @tobiastober.bsky.social · 18/02/2025Last week, Sharon Baute and I were honored to receive the In_equality ECR Excellence Award from @excinequality.bsky.social for our recent paper in @bjpols.bsky.social! 🎉 #HonoredToBeHonored (hashtag credit to the great Tom Waits) 171
Reposted by Tobias ToberAmerican Political Science Review @apsrjournal.bsky.social · 18/02/2025From our new issue: "Explaining Rural Conservatism: Political Consequences of Technological Change in the Great Plains" by Aditya Dasgupta and Elena Ramirez. #APSRNewIssue www.cambridge.org/core/journal... 0101
Reposted by Tobias ToberJohanna Rickne @johannarickne.bsky.social · 24/01/2025Read our new paper on how the economic empowerment of one generation of women drives greater political officeholding for the next 💪✨ 13315
Reposted by Tobias ToberMax-Planck-Institut für Gesellschaftsforschung (MPIfG) @mpifg.bsky.social · 17/02/2025The application deadline for doctoral positions in #PoliticalEconomy and #EconomicSociology is fast approaching. We look forward to receiving your application by February 28. 👉 career.mpifg.de/jobposting/9... 👉 career.mpifg.de/jobposting/1... 055
Reposted by Tobias ToberWill Jennings📉🗳️ @drjennings.bsky.social · 12/02/2025Our article 'A Crisis of Political Trust?' led by @viktorv.bsky.social is now out in @bjpols.bsky.social! We use >3,000 surveys in 143 countries between 1958 and 2019, finding that trust in representative institutions has generally been declining in recent decades. www.cambridge.org/core/journal... 6308129
Reposted by Tobias ToberLiesbet Hooghe @liesbethooghe.bsky.social · 07/02/2025We find that (1) education structures voting for GAL and TAN parties in Western Europe; (2) social structuration is as high as for classic social democratic parties in the 1950s; (3) education structures also Republicans and Democrats. Open access, and on our homepages. 1349
Reposted by Tobias ToberAina Gallego @ainagallego.bsky.social · 06/02/2025Please apply to the workshop "The Politics of AI: Actors, Policy, Geopolitics, and Resistances" (Barcelona, October 2-3). We seek empirical work on key actors, lobby and regulatory activities, and political conflict related to AI and Big Tech. Submission: forms.gle/o4rwT9km3iPX... by February 28.forms.glePolitics of Technology and AI Workshop -IBEI 2025 1115
Reposted by Tobias ToberDaniel Huppmann @danielhuppmann.bsky.social · 06/02/2025What are public perceptions on climate change and carbon-dioxide removal around the world? The survey dataset by @chadmbaum.bsky.social @liviafritz.bsky.social et al is now available via the #GENIE CDR Knowledge Hub... 📝 cdr.apps.ece.iiasa.ac.at/story/2025_0... 64513
Reposted by Tobias ToberBritish Journal of Political Science @bjpols.bsky.social · 31/01/2025#OpenAccess from our new issue - European Institutional Integration and the Educational Divide in Support for the European Union - cup.org/4h4nShk - Sharon Baute & @tobiastober.bsky.social 042
Reposted by Tobias ToberAina Gallego @ainagallego.bsky.social · 28/01/2025📢 Our new paper in Political Analysis explains how to use LLMs like GPT-4o, Llama or Mistral to estimate the ideological and policy position of political texts. Our approach is fast, reliable, cost-effective and reproducible and works with texts written in different languages 1/7 cup.org/4axBEXocup.orgPositioning Political Texts with Large Language Models by Asking and Averaging | Political Analysis | Cambridge CorePositioning Political Texts with Large Language Models by Asking and Averaging 1128781
Reposted by Tobias ToberTobias Tober @tobiastober.bsky.social · 03/12/2024Excited to share a new publication with Sharon Baute! In our latest paper @bjpols.bsky.social , we explore how the growing educational divide in EU support is partly shaped by European institutional integration itself. Check it out here, it's open access: 2164
Reposted by Tobias ToberClaes de Vreese @claesdevreese.bsky.social · 19/12/2024Too big to regulate? Some first instruments are now in play, under the Digital Services Act #DSA. And the @ec.europa.eu is using it! The EC opens proceedings against #TikTok to investigate how it handles risks to elections (recommender systems and political ads/content) ec.europa.eu/commission/p...ec.europa.euCommission opens formal proceedings against TikTok on election risks under the Digital Services ActToday, the Commission has opened formal proceedings against TikTok for a suspected breach of the DSA in relation to TikTok's obligation to properly assess and mitigate systemic risks linked to electio... 1258
Reposted by Tobias ToberBen Keys @benkeys.bsky.social · 11/12/2024Wow. Go read an absolutely blistering report (w/tons of charts) from the World Economic Forum on the massive cost of Climate Inaction: "Rising climate risks are already impacting the global economy and the business case for collective action is clear" reports.weforum.org/docs/WEF_The...reports.weforum.org 22219
Reposted by Tobias ToberThe Politics of Inequality @excinequality.bsky.social · 04/12/2024Check out the newest paper of our #inequality Cluster members Sharon Baute & @tobiastober.bsky.social @unikonstanz.bsky.social #OpenAccess 082
Reposted by Tobias ToberCarlisle Rainey 👨💻📊📚 @carlislerainey.bsky.social · 04/12/2024Here's a provocative new paper "Confronting the New Gatekeepers of Experimental Political Science" doi.org/10.33774/aps... 812232
Reposted by Tobias ToberEvelyne Hübscher @evehubscher.bsky.social · 04/12/2024My unit (Department of Public Policy at CEU, Vienna) is hiring!We’re looking for candidates with excellent skills in quantitative methods (specifically text mining, natural language processing, machine learning). Link to full call: careers.ceu.edu/job/Vienna-A... Happy to answer questions!careers.ceu.eduAssistant Professor (f/m/d)Assistant Professor (f/m/d) 02521
Tobias Tober @tobiastober.bsky.social · 03/12/2024Excited to share a new publication with Sharon Baute! In our latest paper @bjpols.bsky.social , we explore how the growing educational divide in EU support is partly shaped by European institutional integration itself. Check it out here, it's open access: 2164
Reposted by Tobias ToberAnne Applebaum @anneapplebaum.wsocial.eu · 02/12/2024"While Silicon Valley has always wielded influence in American politics, what's emerging now is different – a world where the interests of select technology companies become indistinguishable from US government policy" www.techpolicy.press/on-the-comin...techpolicy.pressOn the Coming Merger of Tech and State Power | TechPolicy.PressTaylor Owen writes that the merger of state and tech power is a fundamental challenge to democratic governance in the digital age. 1031477373
Reposted by Tobias ToberJoris Frese @fresejoris.bsky.social · 30/11/2024🇬🇧🇪🇺 Published Today in EJPR 🇬🇧🇪🇺 @simonhix.bsky.social @juhoharkonen.bsky.social and I find that 1/3 of the anti-Brexit shift in the UK can be attributed to the impact of cohort replacement (old voters dying, young people becoming eligible to vote)! 1/12 ejpr.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/... 814873
Reposted by Tobias ToberMaarten Hermans @mhermans.net · 28/11/2024As long as social class is visible in the average body height, the "death of class"-thesis is quite overblow. 25728
Reposted by Tobias ToberMoritz Marbach @moritz-marbach.com · 30/08/2024🚨New Tool: paper-picnic.com The latest published political science research (and research in adjacent fields) every Friday. No alert chaos, no registration, no clutter. Powered by @crossref.bsky.social 16532
Reposted by Tobias ToberLukas Haffert @lhaffert.bsky.social · 29/11/2024Powerful map illustrating 100 years of economic change in West Germany, from this paper by Paul Berbée, @sebastiantbraun.bsky.social and Richard Franke: link.springer.com/article/10.1... 25115
Reposted by Tobias ToberFlorian Ederer @florianederer.bsky.social · 27/11/2024 Some of the most important lottery anomalies from the behavioral risk literature (e.g., probability weighting and loss aversion) actually have nothing to do with risk. They also arise in perfectly deterministic settings. Lead article in the latest AER issue: www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=... 1626252
Reposted by Tobias ToberLukas Haffert @lhaffert.bsky.social · 26/11/2024There is a general assumption that urban-rural divides in politics have increased across Western Democracies in recent decades. But is this really case? Or are we just extrapolating from the US? A recent paper by @twanhuijsmans.bsky.social and Jonathan Rodden provides comparative evidence. 1/c 26223
Tobias Tober @tobiastober.bsky.social · 25/11/2024I made some updates to the website, including adding a Bluesky button and removing the button for the old place-that-shall-not-be-named. See here: tobiastober.github.iotobiastober.github.ioTobias ToberI am a postdoctoral researcher in political science at the University of Konstanz. I am a member of the Department of Politics and Public Administration, the Cluster of Excellence The Politics of Ineq... 040