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Thelonious Goerz

@theloniousgoerz.bsky.social
235 followers 311 following 29 posts

Ph.D. Candidate at Cornell Sociology studying demography, stratification, segregation, race, quantitative methods. Theloniousgoerz.github.io

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Landon Schnabel @landonschnabel.bsky.social · 27/06/2026
Just published a study I started about a decade ago: journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/... Much of what we "know" about religion comes from a few unusual societies. Does it hold everywhere? I tested three familiar truisms across 66 countries. None held up beyond the Christian West.
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Thelonious Goerz @theloniousgoerz.bsky.social · 06/06/2026
New working paper with Adriana Reyes on the link between inter vivos transfers and bequests. Though largely studied separately, bequests are significant because they can either offset between-sibling inequality in financial transfers or exacerbate it. osf.io/preprints/so...
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Yiqing Xu @yiqingxu.bsky.social · 24/05/2026
On panelView, and why we should always look at our data first.. yiqingxu.substack.com/p/plot-your-...
yiqingxu.substack.com
Please look at your (panel) data
Many of the most egregious issues can be avoided by simply looking at the data.
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Max Woolf @minimaxir.bsky.social · 07/05/2026
Reddit post: In "The Odyssey" (2026), Odysseus speaks with a Boston accent, despite being from Ithaca, which is in New York.
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Kim Weeden @weedenkim.bsky.social · 05/05/2026
Kelly Hunt, 19, disappeared in ANC b/n her village in Western AK and her college. Her remains were recently found. She is 4th young person from Shaktoolik, an Inupiaq village of ≈210, to die in past few years. AK Native women are more likely to be raped or murdered than White women. 1 is too many.
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Thelonious Goerz @theloniousgoerz.bsky.social · 01/05/2026
Washington, Oregon, California.
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Stephen West @stephenwest.bsky.social · 30/04/2026
After Louisiana passed its disfranchising constitution in 1898, voter registration fell 99% among Black voters - and almost 45% among white voters. (from C Vann Woodward, Origins of the New South)
snip of text and table showing aftermath of Louisiana's 1898 disfranchising constitution:

White voter registration fell from 164,088 in 1897 to 125,437 in 1900 and then 91,716 in 1904.

Black voter registration fell from 130,344 in 1897 to 5,320 in 1900 and then 1,342 in 1904.
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Reed DeAngelis @reeddeangelis.bsky.social · 12/03/2026
Our new study is in press @ Epidemiology. We find exposure to industrial air toxicants predicts shorter life expectancy (~1-4 yrs) among a national cohort of US adults, and especially for disadvantaged groups. @landscapeslab.bsky.social @um-src.bsky.social @umisr.bsky.social tinyurl.com/3x4dydk9
tinyurl.com
(PDF) Industrial Air Toxicant Exposure and Individual Mortality: Evidence from the Americans’ Changing Lives Cohort, 1986–2019
PDF | Exposure to industrial air toxicants remains a leading environmental health risk in the United States (US). Our prospective cohort study examines... | Find, read and cite all the research you ne...
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Population Association of America @popassocamerica.bsky.social · 11/03/2026
Amazing Capitol Hill day for our members who met with Congressional offices to talk about the importance of population science. Thank you for your hard work! @tiffanylgreen.bsky.social @burgards.bsky.social @uwcsde.bsky.social
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Demographic Research @demresjournal.bsky.social · 06/03/2026
New decomposition method to quantify how specific subpopulations drive demographic gaps. E.g., estimating how foreign-born populations by race and ethnicity contribute to the gap between total and native-born life expectancy. @eugeniopaglino.bsky.social 👉 www.demographic-research.org/articles/vol...
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Jake Grumbach @jakemgrumbach.bsky.social · 03/03/2026
My favorite paper of 2019 has just been conditionally accepted at AER (lmao) The Voting Rights Act rapidly increased Black wages in the South via public employment & redistribution static1.squarespace.com/static/59dc0...
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Jen Evans @jennifervevans.bsky.social · 23/02/2026
Today, in honour of WEB DuBois's birthday in 1868, the @publicdomainrev.bsky.social features the hand-drawn infographics DuBois made with his students to depict the conditions of African-American life in 1900. Arts-based pedagogy all those years ago! buff.ly/3kdWqRD
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Dan Immergluck @danimmergluck.bsky.social · 20/02/2026
White folks get all upset at the notion of “reparations” but don’t seem to mind that we continue to have what are essentially reverse-reparations in this country, especially in much of the South, where folks whose wealth came from slavery continue to strip Black families of land and property. 1/2
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Demography - the flagship journal of PAA @readdemography.bsky.social · 12/02/2026
In “Limits of Predicting Individual-Level Longevity,” Badolato et al. assess a range of classic statistical & machine learning survival analysis models. @nickirons.bsky.social @monjalexander.bsky.social @ugobas.bsky.social @ezagheni.bsky.social @mpidr.bsky.social read.dukeupress.edu/demography/a...
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Gabriel Agostini @gsagostini.bsky.social · 05/02/2026
Our paper “Inferring fine-grained migration patterns across the United States” is now out in @natcomms.nature.com! We released a new, highly granular migration dataset. 1/9
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Equal Justice Initiative @eji.org · 06/01/2026
On this day in 1959, Richard and Mildred Loving were convicted of interracial marriage in Virginia, given a one-year suspended sentence, and banished from the state.
calendar.eji.org
Jan. 6, 1959 | Lovings Convicted of Interracial Marriage and Banished From Virginia
Learn more about our history of racial injustice.
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Demography - the flagship journal of PAA @readdemography.bsky.social · 04/12/2025
“Understanding Latino & Asian Panethnic & Ethnic Subgroup Residential Segregation”: @acrowell.bsky.social et al. recommend that researchers adopt the described measurement practices "to accurately assess patterns of ethnic group segregation.” @tamusoci.bsky.social read.dukeupress.edu/demography/a...
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Jake Grumbach @jakemgrumbach.bsky.social · 03/12/2025
After becoming a congressional leader, a politician’s stock portfolio beats out those of peers by 47 (!!!) percentage points a year through trades timed around bills and firms that later get government contracts www.nber.org/papers/w34524 via @florianederer.bsky.social
"Captain Gains" on Capitol Hill
Shang-Jin Wei & Yifan Zhou
WORKING PAPER 34524
DOI 10.3386/w34524
ISSUE DATE November 2025
Using transaction-level data on US congressional stock trades, we find that lawmakers who later ascend to leadership positions perform similarly to matched peers beforehand but outperform them by 47 percentage points annually after ascension. Leaders' superior performance arises through two mechanisms. The political influence channel is reflected in higher returns when their party controls the chamber, sales of stocks preceding regulatory actions, and purchase of stocks whose firms receiving more government contracts and favorable party support on bills. The corporate access channel is reflected in stock trades that predict subsequent corporate news and greater returns on donor-owned or home-state firms.令
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Figure 2: Estimated dynamic quasi-difference-in-differences coefficient, di, of equation(3), with vertical dashed lines representing 90 percent confidence intervals. The point estimate of the year in which the lawmaker became a congressional leader (Year 0) is normalized to zero. BHAR over the 250 days following each trade is the dependent variable and calculated using the Fama-French five-factor plus momentum as the benchmark model.
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Atheendar Venkataramani @atheendar.bsky.social · 01/12/2025
🧵/ Perceptions of falling #status have been hypothesized as a driver of worsening #mortality among #White adults in the U.S. over the last few decades. Testing this #hypothesis is difficult. But we think we have some #evidence in favor of it.
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Susan Athey @susanathey.bsky.social · 23/11/2025
ICYMI: New paper for causal effects with panel data, subsuming other approaches. We generate realistic synthetic data based on commonly studied datasets, showing our method substantially outperforms others and providing insight about what in the data-generating process corresponds to gains.
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Thelonious Goerz @theloniousgoerz.bsky.social · 13/11/2025
New working paper up on SocArxiv! osf.io/preprints/so.... I use the 1940 Census and linked mortality records in combination with an IV-design to study the causal effects of racial segregation on longevity. I show that segregation reduces both Black and White longevity.
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Thelonious Goerz @theloniousgoerz.bsky.social · 07/11/2025
So grateful for this office view!
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Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham @paulgp.com · 06/11/2025
Excited to post a new working paper with @instrumenthull.bsky.social and Michal Kolesár: arxiv.org/abs/2511.03572 Will post a thread on it soon, but if you're interested in judge/examiner designs, I think you'll find this guide very helpful!
arxiv.org
Leniency Designs: An Operator's Manual
We develop a step-by-step guide to leniency (a.k.a. judge or examiner instrument) designs, drawing on recent econometric literatures. The unbiased jackknife instrumental variables estimator (UJIVE) is...
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Kim Weeden @weedenkim.bsky.social · 30/10/2025
A huge congratulations to DOCTOR Haowen Zheng, who defended a fantastic dissertation on how changes in family formation and in the spatial distribution of jobs in US affects who moves, where they move to, & who benefits most from moving. Haowen starts a post-doc at Michigan's Stone Center in Jan.
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Richard McElreath 🐈‍⬛ @rmcelreath.bsky.social · 28/10/2025
Other academics are fighting (sometimes literally) one another to publish Nature papers. But I am just sitting here writing abstraction layers for probabilistic programming frameworks.
spider-man sitting behind desk meme
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Casey Breen @caseybreen.bsky.social · 15/10/2025
New @pnas.org paper constructing subnational estimates of internet and mobile adoption by gender, including gender gaps, for 117 low- and middle- income countries from 2015 through 2025. www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...
pnas.org
Mapping subnational gender gaps in internet and mobile adoption using social media data | PNAS
The digital revolution has ushered in many societal and economic benefits. Yet access to digital technologies such as mobile phones and internet re...
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Karen Benjamin Guzzo @karenguzzo.bsky.social · 02/09/2025
The pronatalists have done an excellent job of using bad demography to convince the legacy media that low birth rates are a crisis. They are using bad demography to whitewash their sexism, racism, Christian nationalism, classism, & anti-LGBTQ sentiments. It’s why my colleagues & I wrote this:
theconversation.com
Fears that falling birth rates in US could lead to population collapse are based on faulty assumptions
While the changes in population structure that accompany low birth rates are real, the impact of these changes has been dramatically overstated.
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Kim Weeden @weedenkim.bsky.social · 31/07/2025
Both the Brown and Columbia agreements require the universities to report the test scores and GPAs of applicants, admits, and matriculating students by race *and color,* among other attributes. Wait, what? What's "color" doing in there? A sociologist weighs in. 1/9
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jamelle @jamellebouie.net · 19/06/2025
the destruction of chattel slavery is one of the great accomplishments in our nation's history and the reason conservatives hate celebrating it is because doing so legitimizes the black counter-narrative of the united states
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Karen Benjamin Guzzo @karenguzzo.bsky.social · 11/06/2025
I want to highlight 3 things from this excellent report: 1) Women's reproductive labor is too often the solution to "population problems." 2) Low birth rates aren't a rejection of children & parenthood. 3) Supporting families is a worthy goal in itself, even if policies don't raise birth rates. 1/
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Matt Hall @fertmortmig.bsky.social · 06/06/2025
Sad that this has to be my first post here, but the gutting of the FSRDC program is disastrous for demographic research.
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Karen Benjamin Guzzo @karenguzzo.bsky.social · 04/06/2025
The honorable mention goes to Haowen Zheng, “Diverging Trajectories: Gendered Income Dynamics Pre- and Post-Family Migration.” 2/3
Internal migration in early adulthood, a critical life stage marked by frequent job transitions and demographic events, contributes to income disparities between married men and women. This study adopts a life course perspective to elucidate the development of this gender inequality pre- and post-migration. Using the NLSY79 data from 1979 to 2018 and an event studies model that leverages within-individual variations in both pre- and post-migration income trajectories relative to non-migrants, I observe a steadily growing migration premium for men over 15 years post-migration. By contrast, I show a prolonged migration penalty for women that peaks around five years after migration and lasts for a decade. While improved employment status accounts for about half of men’s migration income premium consistently over time, detachment from the labor market explains a smaller proportion of women’s migration income penalty mostly in the short term. Although occupational changes and fertility do not impact men's gains from migration, they account for women’s migration penalty in the long run. Ignoring pre-migration income trends underestimates income gains among male migrants and overestimates income losses among female migrants. These results emphasize the importance of temporal dynamics in family migration and gender inequality studies.
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Carl T. Bergstrom @carlbergstrom.com · 06/05/2025
An example of the disruption to science caused by the NSF’s 15% overhead dictate: At the University of Washington, all newly awarded NSF grants are now on hold indefinitely with no advance spending allowed.
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Clément de Chaisemartin @cdechaisemartin.bsky.social · 18/04/2025
Just posted updated version of our DID textbook! We now have drafts of all chapters, including the one on general designs! Now you can tell your friends still on X that they are DID-outdated :-) Happy easter for those of you that celebrate it. papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
papers.ssrn.com
Credible Answers to Hard Questions: Differences-in-Differences for Natural Experiments
This book introduces applied researchers to modern Differences-in-Differences (DID) methods, that they can use to obtain credible answers to hard causal inferen
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Thelonious Goerz @theloniousgoerz.bsky.social · 01/05/2025
Feeling thrilled to have successfully defended my M.A. thesis today to advance to Ph.D. candidacy!
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Victor Ray @victorerikray.bsky.social · 01/05/2025
Our Annual Review of Sociology article on conceptualizing and measuring structural racism is now available. Get it while studying racism is still legal. @tyson-brown.bsky.social @pahoman.bsky.social (also, lots of great articles are in this volume). www.annualreviews.org/content/jour...
annualreviews.org
Advancing the Scientific Study of Structural Racism: Concepts, Measures, and Methods | Annual Reviews
This review provides 10 actionable recommendations for advancing the scientific study of structural racism through theoretically grounded and empirically robust measures and methods. By offering conce...
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Elizabeth Wrigley-Field @wrigleyfield.bsky.social · 30/04/2025
The biggest project I've worked on for the last chunk of years was just published. It asks, how big are US Black-white lifespan differences? This might seem like a narrow question. I hope to convince you by the end that there are answers you didn't anticipate. And I hope some of them will move you.
annualreviews.org
Three Ways of Looking at Black–White Mortality Differences in the United States | Annual Reviews
Everyone agrees that US Black deaths happen earlier than white deaths on average, but it is surprisingly challenging to find the best ways to summarize, quantify, and compare this gap. This review arg...
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Trevon Logan @trevondlogan.bsky.social · 14/04/2025
Very excited to have this paper with @franciscaantman.bsky.social Bruce Weinberg, and Sgeng Qu out on the (positive!) long run effects of the @aeainformation.bsky.social Mentoring program. www.nber.org/papers/w33689
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jamelle @jamellebouie.net · 14/03/2025
these people are literally trying to destroy america’s future
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Jon Mellon @jonmellon.bsky.social · 10/03/2025
Helpful NYT article showing 30 exclusion restriction violations for studies claiming covid is an instrument for their preferred x variable nytimes.com/interactive/2025/03/09/upshot/covid-lockdown-five-year-charts.html
nytimes.com
30 Charts That Show How Everything Changed in March 2020
It can be easy to forget, or look away from, the pain and disruption of the pandemic. The numbers will be there to remind us.
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Dan Hirschman @asociologist.bsky.social · 24/02/2025
My rough guess is that about 1/3 of young Democrats identify as LGBTQ+. Keep that in mind when thinking about what issues folks are labeling a "distraction" - for young Dems especially, LGBTQ+ issues are not remotely niche. scatter.wordpress.com/2025/02/24/t...
scatter.wordpress.com
the future of the democratic party is queer
Last week, Gallup released new data on the demographics of LGBTQ+ folks in the United States. Tristan Bridges has a fantastic write-up here with nice visualizations. Some key highlights include the…
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Karen Benjamin Guzzo @karenguzzo.bsky.social · 22/02/2025
Needing a six-figure salary to purchase a home means many Americans are cut off from the primary avenue for building intergenerational wealth. www.nbcnews.com/data-graphic...
nbcnews.com
Do you need to make $100,000 to buy a home? Census data says yes
The median new homebuyer household income exceeds $100,000 in more than half the country.
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Thelonious Goerz @theloniousgoerz.bsky.social · 07/02/2025
In spite of everything, my morning commute to campus is peaceful and the snow is pretty .
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Tom VanHeuvelen @tvanheuvelen.bsky.social · 02/12/2024
It's Monday, so over at the blog I wrote about two great new papers that take a swing at what you can and can't do with sibling data. asocial.substack.com/p/two-great-...
asocial.substack.com
Two Great Reads - Monday - December 2
Siblings!
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Omar Wasow @owasow.bsky.social · 15/05/2024
New study finds “counties more exposed to coverage of BLM protests by a TV station owned by Sinclair, a conservative media conglomerate, were *less* likely to support Republican candidates…” Suggests this may be due to Sinclair “raising salience of racial tensions,” papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
papers.ssrn.com
Media Coverage, Media Bias and Campaign Contributions: Evidence from the 2020 George Floyd Protests in the United States
I study the effect of racial unrest on campaign contributions and how this effect is mediated by media coverage. Using a regression discontinuity in time, I fin
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Bart Bonikowski @bartbonikowski.bsky.social · 25/04/2024
31 faculty members from the NYU Sociology Department released this statement about the forceful suppression of peaceful protest (including the arrest of faculty and students) by the NYPD on April 22. Free speech and political dissent at universities must be protected. Get the cops off our campuses.
Statement by NYU Sociology faculty on the university administration’s and NYPD’s forceful suppression of peaceful protest.
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Thelonious Goerz @theloniousgoerz.bsky.social · 19/03/2024
The nice thing about computing spatial weight matrices is that their computation is so slow and laborious that you have built in break time to surf the web while you wait.
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jamelle @jamellebouie.net · 15/03/2024
serious answer: Jay Inslee
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Thelonious Goerz @theloniousgoerz.bsky.social · 23/02/2024
The recent revelation that (x1+x2)^ == x1*x2 in R is astounding. Still learning something new about the language 5 years in.
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