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Scott Supak

@supak.com
375 followers 1.6K following 1.1K posts

“We are living in an interminable succession of absurdities imposed by the myopic logic of short-term thinking.” —Jacques-Yves Cousteau Retired stage technician turned professional predictor of politics and climate on this pyretic planet. Supak.com

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Sherrod Brown @sherrodbrownoh.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
NEW AD: Listen to this sh*t.
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Scott Supak @supak.com · 26/09/2026
Happy Stanislav Petrov Day to all who celebrate (and all of you should). en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stanisl...
share.google
Stanislav Petrov - Wikipedia
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Daniel Donner @donnermaps.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
If we could go back in time to use the national primary margin to predict the midterm House popular vote with the data available at that time, how well would it have done? Pretty well overall, with some significant misses like 2006. (Note we see no warning signs of a miss like 2006 for this year.)
Graph showing the actual House Popular vote margin compared to that predicted by the primary margin. Major trends match, and about half the time the prediction is very close.
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Dave Itzkoff @ditzkoff.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
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Andrew Lawrence @ndrew.bsky.social · 07/09/2026
good morning mr president, we have that ai video of you playing quarterback in the super bowl that youve been demanding but we need to reiterate once again that we have 11 days of oil left
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Scott Supak @supak.com · 25/08/2026
Dolly had a short-lived show on ABC for a while, which was taped at the ABC Prospect lot in Hollywood, while I was on that lot as an electrician for General Hospital. We were working late one night, so I took a break to run to the commissary before it closed.
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Scott Supak @supak.com · 04/08/2026
These people should be required to put their money where their mouths are in prediction markets where you only get paid if you're right.
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Scott Supak @supak.com · 02/08/2026
Good news for Donny Boy! He got to fuck himself.
Trump post of his new self looking at his old self like he wants to have sex with him.
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Scott Supak @supak.com · 02/08/2026
www.npr.org/2026/08/01/n...
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Scott Supak @supak.com · 22/06/2026
With notably rare exceptions, Alan Greenspan is alive and well. @himself.bsky.social
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Mediapolitic @mediapolitic.bsky.social · 06/06/2026
You guys, the White House accidentally ordered 10x the amount of Porta-Potties that they needed. The lawn is just acres of Porta-Potties. It’s all fenced off and you can’t see, but I took this photo through a hole in the fence netting.
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G. Willow Wilson @gwillow.me · 31/05/2026
Sinners meme in which Stack asks Remmick "Y'all performing at the Freedom 250?" and Remmick replies "Sir."
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Scott Supak @supak.com · 20/05/2026
Minnesotans should be able to hedge climate risk just like Wall Street does. From hurricanes to record heat, from Arctic sea ice extent to Lake Mead water levels, we should all be able to "bet" against climate deniers and do good with money they would've done evil with. kalshi.com/markets/kxme...
kalshi.com
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Scott Supak @supak.com · 19/05/2026
Shorter Tim Walz: Wall St can hedge all the risk it wants but you peons have to suck it up and suffer.
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Scott Supak @supak.com · 26/03/2026
A lot of that extent was pretty thin mush, too. The market @kalshiofficial.bsky.social will settle at the daily high which was 14.358 on 3/13. Rapid switch to super Nino will likely not be good for the minimum this fall.
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Scott Supak @supak.com · 24/02/2026
Finally got to see Central Park in the snow.
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Scott Supak @supak.com · 24/02/2026
This is right across...
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Andrew B. Watkins @windjunky.bsky.social · 14/01/2026
Globally, no single day in 2025 was cooler than its 1991-2020 average. climate.copernicus.eu/global-clima...
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Scott Supak @supak.com · 07/01/2026
Going to be a lot more this year. Market @kalshiofficial.bsky.social is predicting over 3000 already. kalshi.com/markets/kxme...
kalshi.com
Measles cases this year? Odds & Predictions 2026
Track what Kalshi's markets predict for "Measles cases this year?", or trade it yourself.
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Scott Supak @supak.com · 11/12/2025
@ditzkoff.bsky.social
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Code Four Lyoko @lokrobster.bsky.social · 22/11/2025
Mamdani, increasingly exasperated, takes his fourth 1am phone call from Trump this week. He asks who the main guy from Night Moves was and then they briefly discuss fondue. Trump recommends manhattan steakhouse that closed in 1998 and says goodnight.
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skáld @danglinghemmie.bsky.social · 14/11/2025
Well well well if it isnt the Blowjob Brothers
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Dave Itzkoff @ditzkoff.bsky.social · 07/11/2025
homer daydreaming of homer sleeping and dreaming of donald trump sleeping
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Dr. K @katekaynak.bsky.social · 01/11/2025
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Scott Supak @supak.com · 18/09/2025
Donny had a 48% approval rating from his personal ass lickers at Spazmussen on Tuesday, and that's up to 51% today. Calling it the dead Kirk bounce.
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John Rogers @johnrogers.bsky.social · 14/09/2025
This gets to something that as a former stand-up I recognized but couldn’t name. A 31 year old professional content creator baiting 19 year old amateurs into the format of his choice isn’t debate, it’s crowd work. It’s debate-shaped crowd work farmed for content.
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John Rogers @johnrogers.bsky.social · 17/09/2025
Look, folks, SNEAKERS is in the LEVERAGE ancestors list. it’s a must see, and a true pleasure, unlike some influences that are necessary for context but haven’t aged well.
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Scott Supak @supak.com · 16/09/2025
Butch and Sundance jump off cliff. RIP Robert Redford.
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Sage Deviant 🏳️‍⚧️ @trans.bsky.social · 12/09/2025
Charlie Kirk’s shooter was a 22 year old white cis man & 4chan groyper. Charlie Kirk’s last words were “gang violence”. he was claiming Black people were inherently violent right before his life was ended by another white man. Here is a description of Kirk’s terrorism by one of his many victims:
Dr Stacey Patton

I am on Charlie Kirk's hit list.

His so-called "Professor Watchlist," run under the umbrella of Turning Point USA, is nothing more than a digital hit list for academics who dare to speak truth to power. I landed there in 2024 after writing commentary that inflamed the MAGA faithful. And once my name went up, the harassment machine roared to life.

For weeks my inbox and voicemail were deluged. Mostly white men spat venom through the phone: "bitch," "c*nt," "n****r." They threatened all manner of violence.

They overwhelmed the university's PR lines and the president's office with calls demanding that I be fired. The flood was so relentless that the head of campus security reached out to offer me an escort, because they feared one of these keyboard soldiers might step out of his basement and come do me harm.

And I am not unique.Kirk's Watchlist has terrorized legions of professors across this country. Women, Black faculty, queer scholars, basically anyone who challenged white supremacy, gun culture, or Christian nationalism suddenly found themselves targets of coordinated abuse.

Some received death threats. Some had their jobs threatened. Some left academia entirely.
Kirk sent the loud message to us: speak the truth and we will unleash the mob!

That is the culture of violence Charlie Kirk built.
He normalized violence. He curated it, monetized it, and sicced it on anyone who dared to puncture his movement's lies.

And now, in the wake of his shooting, there's all this national outpouring of mourning, moments of silence, yellow prayer hands, and tributes painting him as a civil debater. But the truth is that Kirk and his foot soldiers spent years terrorizing educators, trying to silence us with harassment and fear!

And now the same violence he unleashed on others has come full circle.But what i find especially jarring is the dissonance in public mourning for a smug white man whose life work was actively hostile to certain groups. Kirk spent years demonizing LGBTQ people, mocking gun survivors, spewing racism about Black folks, and pushing policies that literally shorten lives.

It is so revolting to watch a bipartisan wave of grief sweep over this hateful racist as if he was a neutral community servant.
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deadmoney @deadmoney.bsky.social · 11/09/2025
He's so sad about his friend but only on one side of his face. The other side is all business.
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Scott Supak @supak.com · 11/09/2025
"3,000 kids basically watched somebody shot right in front of them, it's really traumatic."--Phil Lyman, Former Utah state representative On average, ~500 people have been killed in non-college school shootings per decade since 2000, Phil, you insensitive sack of gun-worshipping shit.
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Scott Supak @supak.com · 10/09/2025
Just when I was about to give up on karma...
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Zeke Hausfather @zekehausfather.com · 08/09/2025
Climate skeptics have long been obsessed with corrections to temperature records for changes in measurement techniques and instruments over time. But it turns out that if we just used the raw data we'd see more warming. My latest at The Climate Brink: www.theclimatebrink....
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Bill Grueskin @bgrueskin.bsky.social · 05/09/2025
"Among those detained were South Korean employees on business travel.... "The raid could raise concerns for South Korean companies that are sending personnel to the US and hiring locally." It comes weeks after Hyundai pledged $26 billion in US investments. Gift link ⬇️ www.wsj.com/us-news/u-s-...
wsj.com
Hundreds Arrested in Immigration Raid at Hyundai Site in Georgia
South Korea said it had expressed concerns to the U.S. about the raid and that it was trying to secure the release of its citizens.
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Taniel @taniel.bsky.social · 27/08/2025
NEW RESULT: Democrats have flipped a state Senate in Iowa. This was a seat Trump carried by 11%, but Democratic nominee Catherine Drey has just won it by 10.4%. This is the second legislative flip by Dems in Iowa this year. It also means the GOP loses its supermajority in Iowa’s senate.
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Scott Supak @supak.com · 10/08/2025
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Scott Supak @supak.com · 06/08/2025
Imagine firing an Emmy-award-winning team of data journalists. smdh
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Polling USA @usapolling.bsky.social · 30/07/2025
I'm putting together a team
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Aaron Sojourner @aaronsojourner.org · 25/07/2025
"People take statistical agencies for granted. So they're easy to cut because there's no lobby or special interest group that's powerful enough to protect them." - Ethan Harris, former head of global economic research at Bank of America www.reuters.com/business/us-...
reuters.com
US economic data quality a worry, authorities not acting urgently enough, experts say
Risks to the quality of official U.S. economic data - long seen as the gold standard - are worrying 89 of 100 top policy experts polled by Reuters, with most also concerned that the authorities are not addressing the issue urgently enough.
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Sean Rose the World’s Strongest @jabronisean.bsky.social · 24/07/2025
I don't like to speak badly of people. I have grown up thinking and being told that if you cannot say something nice about someone, you should not say anything at all. But I must break that rule in this case because I hate Hulk Hogan very much. He is a big ugly goon and I want to squash his face.

-Andre the Giant
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Scott Supak @supak.com · 09/07/2025
In prediction market parlance, Trump hired 3 chickenshit bullshitters who won't put money where their mouths are. I challenged Spencer to make a bet years ago, during the "plateau" that never happened, and he wouldn't do it.
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Scott Supak @supak.com · 07/07/2025
The Republican effort to cut spending by killing people continues unabated.
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Faine Greenwood @faineg.com · 06/07/2025
Apparently Texas sends mass “Blue Alerts” to phones every time a cop is in danger. And a lot of people are so understandably sick of it that they’ve *turned emergency alerts off entirely*, meaning that they aren’t getting actually-useful notifications. www.cbsnews.com/texas/news/f...
cbsnews.com
FCC gets thousands of complaints over Blue Alert in Texas shooting
The Blue Alert blared through cell phones and rattled devices, startling Texans with an unplanned awakening at 5 a.m.
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Tomer Burg @burgwx.bsky.social · 06/07/2025
To build further on Matt's excellent point, not all floods are created equal - yesterday's situation was an inherently low-predictability mesoscale flood, which is in stark contrast to higher predictability synoptically-forced floods. How do you explain that to the average person & elected official?
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Quantian @quantian.bsky.social · 04/07/2025
Reality is now so internet poisoned you cannot say true things without appearing insane. “The New York Times ran a hit piece on Zohran purely so a minor race science blogger could place insider trades on Polymarket” sounds like you are a schizophrenic but it is straightforwardly factual!
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Dave Itzkoff @ditzkoff.bsky.social · 25/06/2025
Bart: I feel so full of - what’s the opposite of shame?Marge: pride?Bart: No, not that far from shame. Homer: less shame?

Bart: yeah.
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Scott Supak @supak.com · 13/06/2025
Blow, winds, and crack your cheeks! rage! blow! You cataracts and hurricanoes, spout Till you have drench’d our steeples, drown’d the cocks! --King Lear: Act 3, Scene 2
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Dan Chibnall @bookowl.bsky.social · 11/06/2025
Learned some more about a few of these dangerous new ACIP people
Martin Kulldorff: lead author of the Great Barrington declaration which promoted mass infection with COVID and opposed infectious disease prevention measures including masks and vaccines for children.

Retsef Levi: vaccine skeptic. Believes COVID vaccines killed more people than they saved. Has publicly stated numerous times that mRNA vaccines should be stopped. 

Robert W. Malone: suggested COVID vaccines cause a form of AIDS. Also has downplayed the measles outbreak & deaths and runs a wellness institute that dabbles in pseudoscience and conspiracy theories. 

Cody Meissner: doctor who has equated mask mandates with child abuse, was an advisor to Ron DeSantis, and signed the stupid Great Barrington Declaration. 

Vicky Pebsworth: member of the board of the country's oldest anti-vax group, the National Vaccine Information Center, a leading source of misinformation about vaccines. This group pushes lies about vaccines & autism.
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geoffrey @parsnip.bsky.social · 11/06/2025
us forces mired in two-front war with a nuclear-capable iran and [squinting] los angeles
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Scott Supak @supak.com · 11/06/2025
Quinn Trump approval 38, lmao, stick that in your parade. poll.qu.edu/poll-release...
poll.qu.edu
Majority Of Voters Oppose GOP Budget Bill, With Just 67% Of Republicans In Support, Quinnipiac University National Poll Finds; Trump Job Approval: 38%, His Handling Of Russia - Ukraine War Lowes...
"With Medicaid's future as a healthcare safety net for millions suddenly uncertain, voters make it clear they want the 60-year-old program for those in need to be handled with care," said Quinnipiac U...
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