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Scott Supak

@supak.com
375 followers 1.6K following 1.1K posts

“We are living in an interminable succession of absurdities imposed by the myopic logic of short-term thinking.” —Jacques-Yves Cousteau Retired stage technician turned professional predictor of politics and climate on this pyretic planet. Supak.com

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Reposted by Scott Supak
Sherrod Brown @sherrodbrownoh.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
NEW AD: Listen to this sh*t.
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Scott Supak @supak.com · 26/09/2026
Happy Stanislav Petrov Day to all who celebrate (and all of you should). en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stanisl...
share.google
Stanislav Petrov - Wikipedia
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Daniel Donner @donnermaps.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
If we could go back in time to use the national primary margin to predict the midterm House popular vote with the data available at that time, how well would it have done? Pretty well overall, with some significant misses like 2006. (Note we see no warning signs of a miss like 2006 for this year.)
Graph showing the actual House Popular vote margin compared to that predicted by the primary margin. Major trends match, and about half the time the prediction is very close.
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Dave Itzkoff @ditzkoff.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
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Andrew Lawrence @ndrew.bsky.social · 07/09/2026
good morning mr president, we have that ai video of you playing quarterback in the super bowl that youve been demanding but we need to reiterate once again that we have 11 days of oil left
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Scott Supak @supak.com · 25/08/2026
Then she tugs at her bra, straightens her boobs, looks me right in the eye and says, "Good thing I have these things!"
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Scott Supak @supak.com · 25/08/2026
We bounced off each other. I grabbed her by the hands to steady us both and stop her from falling over! We finally got our bearings back and I start apologizing profusely. She says, "No, no, I was going too fast too, it's OK!
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Scott Supak @supak.com · 25/08/2026
I took the shortcut through the halls of stages 57/59 (I forget which one she was on) where the control rooms are. The halls were empty, so I was walking fast. Rounded a corner and ran right into her (she was going fast too).
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Scott Supak @supak.com · 25/08/2026
Dolly had a short-lived show on ABC for a while, which was taped at the ABC Prospect lot in Hollywood, while I was on that lot as an electrician for General Hospital. We were working late one night, so I took a break to run to the commissary before it closed.
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Scott Supak @supak.com · 04/08/2026
These people should be required to put their money where their mouths are in prediction markets where you only get paid if you're right.
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Scott Supak @supak.com · 02/08/2026
Blade Runner is a close second.
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Scott Supak @supak.com · 02/08/2026
The state of Wisconsin
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Scott Supak @supak.com · 02/08/2026
Good news for Donny Boy! He got to fuck himself.
Trump post of his new self looking at his old self like he wants to have sex with him.
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Scott Supak @supak.com · 02/08/2026
www.npr.org/2026/08/01/n...
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Scott Supak @supak.com · 22/06/2026
With notably rare exceptions, he did more harm than good. crookedtimber.org/2011/03/30/w...
crookedtimber.org
“With Notably Rare Exceptions” — Crooked Timber
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Scott Supak @supak.com · 22/06/2026
With notably rare exceptions, Alan Greenspan is alive and well. @himself.bsky.social
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Mediapolitic @mediapolitic.bsky.social · 06/06/2026
You guys, the White House accidentally ordered 10x the amount of Porta-Potties that they needed. The lawn is just acres of Porta-Potties. It’s all fenced off and you can’t see, but I took this photo through a hole in the fence netting.
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G. Willow Wilson @gwillow.me · 31/05/2026
Sinners meme in which Stack asks Remmick "Y'all performing at the Freedom 250?" and Remmick replies "Sir."
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Scott Supak @supak.com · 20/05/2026
Minnesotans should be able to hedge climate risk just like Wall Street does. From hurricanes to record heat, from Arctic sea ice extent to Lake Mead water levels, we should all be able to "bet" against climate deniers and do good with money they would've done evil with. kalshi.com/markets/kxme...
kalshi.com
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Scott Supak @supak.com · 19/05/2026
Why shouldn't I get to hedge climate risk? Or political risk? Or inflation risk? Or any other risk, the way Wall Street does?
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Scott Supak @supak.com · 19/05/2026
Shorter Tim Walz: Wall St can hedge all the risk it wants but you peons have to suck it up and suffer.
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Scott Supak @supak.com · 26/03/2026
A lot of that extent was pretty thin mush, too. The market @kalshiofficial.bsky.social will settle at the daily high which was 14.358 on 3/13. Rapid switch to super Nino will likely not be good for the minimum this fall.
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Scott Supak @supak.com · 24/02/2026
Finally got to see Central Park in the snow.
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Scott Supak @supak.com · 24/02/2026
From this
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Scott Supak @supak.com · 24/02/2026
This is right across...
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Scott Supak @supak.com · 17/02/2026
Vaccine rate is most definitely dropping nationwide. www.kff.org/medicaid/kin...
kff.org
Kindergarten Routine Vaccination Rates Continue to Decline | KFF
This issue brief provides an update on the latest trends in kindergarten children's routine vaccination and exemption rates. Over three-quarters (39) of states had measles, mumps, rubella (MMR)vaccina...
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Andrew B. Watkins @windjunky.bsky.social · 14/01/2026
Globally, no single day in 2025 was cooler than its 1991-2020 average. climate.copernicus.eu/global-clima...
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Scott Supak @supak.com · 07/01/2026
Going to be a lot more this year. Market @kalshiofficial.bsky.social is predicting over 3000 already. kalshi.com/markets/kxme...
kalshi.com
Measles cases this year? Odds & Predictions 2026
Track what Kalshi's markets predict for "Measles cases this year?", or trade it yourself.
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Scott Supak @supak.com · 13/12/2025
Kalshi is fully regulated by the CFTC.
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Scott Supak @supak.com · 11/12/2025
@ditzkoff.bsky.social
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Scott Supak @supak.com · 11/12/2025
@ditzkoff.bsky.social
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Code Four Lyoko @lokrobster.bsky.social · 22/11/2025
Mamdani, increasingly exasperated, takes his fourth 1am phone call from Trump this week. He asks who the main guy from Night Moves was and then they briefly discuss fondue. Trump recommends manhattan steakhouse that closed in 1998 and says goodnight.
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skáld @danglinghemmie.bsky.social · 14/11/2025
Well well well if it isnt the Blowjob Brothers
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Dave Itzkoff @ditzkoff.bsky.social · 07/11/2025
homer daydreaming of homer sleeping and dreaming of donald trump sleeping
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Dr. K @katekaynak.bsky.social · 01/11/2025
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Scott Supak @supak.com · 18/09/2025
Donny had a 48% approval rating from his personal ass lickers at Spazmussen on Tuesday, and that's up to 51% today. Calling it the dead Kirk bounce.
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Scott Supak @supak.com · 18/09/2025
I believe we set a new record low concentration. Area was very low but extent was high, because of dispersion.
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John Rogers @johnrogers.bsky.social · 14/09/2025
This gets to something that as a former stand-up I recognized but couldn’t name. A 31 year old professional content creator baiting 19 year old amateurs into the format of his choice isn’t debate, it’s crowd work. It’s debate-shaped crowd work farmed for content.
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Scott Supak @supak.com · 18/09/2025
Never heard that version, but I've heard the old Jewish joke: "There is only one God—and we don't believe in him!"
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John Rogers @johnrogers.bsky.social · 17/09/2025
Look, folks, SNEAKERS is in the LEVERAGE ancestors list. it’s a must see, and a true pleasure, unlike some influences that are necessary for context but haven’t aged well.
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Scott Supak @supak.com · 16/09/2025
Butch and Sundance jump off cliff. RIP Robert Redford.
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Scott Supak @supak.com · 15/09/2025
Think maybe they got most of them?
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Sage Deviant 🏳️‍⚧️ @trans.bsky.social · 12/09/2025
Charlie Kirk’s shooter was a 22 year old white cis man & 4chan groyper. Charlie Kirk’s last words were “gang violence”. he was claiming Black people were inherently violent right before his life was ended by another white man. Here is a description of Kirk’s terrorism by one of his many victims:
Dr Stacey Patton

I am on Charlie Kirk's hit list.

His so-called "Professor Watchlist," run under the umbrella of Turning Point USA, is nothing more than a digital hit list for academics who dare to speak truth to power. I landed there in 2024 after writing commentary that inflamed the MAGA faithful. And once my name went up, the harassment machine roared to life.

For weeks my inbox and voicemail were deluged. Mostly white men spat venom through the phone: "bitch," "c*nt," "n****r." They threatened all manner of violence.

They overwhelmed the university's PR lines and the president's office with calls demanding that I be fired. The flood was so relentless that the head of campus security reached out to offer me an escort, because they feared one of these keyboard soldiers might step out of his basement and come do me harm.

And I am not unique.Kirk's Watchlist has terrorized legions of professors across this country. Women, Black faculty, queer scholars, basically anyone who challenged white supremacy, gun culture, or Christian nationalism suddenly found themselves targets of coordinated abuse.

Some received death threats. Some had their jobs threatened. Some left academia entirely.
Kirk sent the loud message to us: speak the truth and we will unleash the mob!

That is the culture of violence Charlie Kirk built.
He normalized violence. He curated it, monetized it, and sicced it on anyone who dared to puncture his movement's lies.

And now, in the wake of his shooting, there's all this national outpouring of mourning, moments of silence, yellow prayer hands, and tributes painting him as a civil debater. But the truth is that Kirk and his foot soldiers spent years terrorizing educators, trying to silence us with harassment and fear!

And now the same violence he unleashed on others has come full circle.But what i find especially jarring is the dissonance in public mourning for a smug white man whose life work was actively hostile to certain groups. Kirk spent years demonizing LGBTQ people, mocking gun survivors, spewing racism about Black folks, and pushing policies that literally shorten lives.

It is so revolting to watch a bipartisan wave of grief sweep over this hateful racist as if he was a neutral community servant.
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Scott Supak @supak.com · 13/09/2025
See comments here: manifold.markets/ChristopherR...
manifold.markets
Global Average Temperature Aug 2025 per LOTI v4 vs 1951-1980 base period (NASA Gistemp)
Resolved 0RsQN5dlPn. Data is currently at https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.csv or https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt (or such updated locatio...
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Scott Supak @supak.com · 12/09/2025
I assume they get the same global data as NASA?
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Scott Supak @supak.com · 12/09/2025
The answer I get is, "We have to be better than them." Not really sure how to answer that other than, "You think being nice to their dead makes you better?"
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deadmoney @deadmoney.bsky.social · 11/09/2025
He's so sad about his friend but only on one side of his face. The other side is all business.
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Scott Supak @supak.com · 12/09/2025
Did the data outage NASA suffered affect your calculations?
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Scott Supak @supak.com · 12/09/2025
followed
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Scott Supak @supak.com · 11/09/2025
350 people died in public or private primary or secondary school shootings in school year 20-21, but so glad to see a wingnut finally admit how tragic it is for adult college students to see gun violence. Keep it up, Phil, you're almost there... nces.ed.gov/programs/dig...
nces.ed.gov
Number of casualties from shootings at public and private elementary and secondary schools, number of school shootings, and number of schools with shootings, by type of casualty and level of school: S...
The primary purpose of the Digest of Education Statistics is to provide a compilation of statistical information covering the broad field of American education from prekindergarten through graduate sc...
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