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Scott Supak

@supak.com
375 followers 1.6K following 1.1K posts

“We are living in an interminable succession of absurdities imposed by the myopic logic of short-term thinking.” —Jacques-Yves Cousteau Retired stage technician turned professional predictor of politics and climate on this pyretic planet. Supak.com

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Scott Supak @supak.com · 02/08/2026
Blade Runner is a close second.
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Scott Supak @supak.com · 02/08/2026
Good news for Donny Boy! He got to fuck himself.
Trump post of his new self looking at his old self like he wants to have sex with him.
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Scott Supak @supak.com · 02/08/2026
www.npr.org/2026/08/01/n...
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Scott Supak @supak.com · 26/03/2026
A lot of that extent was pretty thin mush, too. The market @kalshiofficial.bsky.social will settle at the daily high which was 14.358 on 3/13. Rapid switch to super Nino will likely not be good for the minimum this fall.
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Scott Supak @supak.com · 24/02/2026
Finally got to see Central Park in the snow.
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Scott Supak @supak.com · 24/02/2026
From this
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Scott Supak @supak.com · 24/02/2026
This is right across...
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Scott Supak @supak.com · 11/12/2025
@ditzkoff.bsky.social
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Scott Supak @supak.com · 16/09/2025
Butch and Sundance jump off cliff. RIP Robert Redford.
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Scott Supak @supak.com · 10/08/2025
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Scott Supak @supak.com · 20/06/2025
Me reading this:
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Scott Supak @supak.com · 20/06/2025
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Scott Supak @supak.com · 09/06/2025
Sometimes a parade is more than a parade.
Mussolini inspects troops
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Scott Supak @supak.com · 02/06/2025
Going to break my never-quote-the-motherfucker rule here to say, wtf? He thinks white people invented rock and roll???
Donald Fucking Trump spewing racist garbage that white people invented rock and roll.Chuck Berry looking surprised and angry.
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Scott Supak @supak.com · 30/05/2025
You can see how much black carbon from these fires winds up in the arctic (and eventually lands on the sea ice, which causes it to melt faster): aerosol-alerts.atmosphere.copernicus.eu?lat=68.06146...
Map of black carbon in the atmosphere over the Arctic Ocean
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Scott Supak @supak.com · 25/05/2025
Dave Matthews at Bethel Woods last night.
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Scott Supak @supak.com · 23/05/2025
Lol
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Scott Supak @supak.com · 04/05/2025
All an 11-year-old "baby" girl needs is her Daddy, duh.
https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/ivanka-donald-trump-pic/
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Scott Supak @supak.com · 30/04/2025
Way ahead of you (and Kalshi is legal)! I got in at 40c. kalshi.com/markets/kxre...
Graph from Kalshi showing odds of a 2025 recession up from less than 20% in Dec to 73% now.
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Scott Supak @supak.com · 08/04/2025
Imagine how much it costs to pay people answering the phone when Rasmussen calls.
A graph of Rasmussen polling shows Trump approval tanking.
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Scott Supak @supak.com · 06/04/2025
The measles vaccine has saved millions worldwide.
CDC graph showing 21.1 million deaths prevented globally from 2000-2017 by the measles vaccine.

https://www.cdc.gov/measles/downloads/measlesdataandstatsslideset.pdf
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Scott Supak @supak.com · 05/04/2025
Decades of betting on bad things happening has numbed me to the guilt. For hurricanes and tornadoes, I donate to charities to help those affected, but I'm not sure who to donate to in this case... maybe a vaccine advocacy group?
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Scott Supak @supak.com · 04/04/2025
1st day net negative in the Bullshitter's favorite pollster.
Chart showing Trump approval and strong approval dropping, disapproval and strong disapproval rising, in the Rasmussen daily Presidential approval tracker.
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Scott Supak @supak.com · 25/03/2025
lol, Gal acting like what Americans think matters to Donald Fucking Trump or the GOP
Gallup poll showing % of Americans who say the US isn't supporting Ukraine enough has risen from 30% in Dec 24 to 46% now.

https://news.gallup.com/poll/658193/support-greater-role-ukraine-climbs-high.aspx
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Scott Supak @supak.com · 20/03/2025
The Kalshi prediction market for 2025 measles cases is here: kalshi.com/markets/kxme...
Chart showing how many cases of measles the Kalshi prediction market predicted over time, starting at near 0 and climbing to almost 3k before sliding back down to the current 2k.
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Scott Supak @supak.com · 20/03/2025
The Kalshi measles market is now predicting over 2000 cases for this year. Here's a good article from @sciam.bsky.social on how even small drops in vaccination rates can mean big numbers of cases. www.scientificamerican.com/article/see-...
Chart showing the vaccination rates of Kindergarteners in TX vs the US falling below the 95% threshold needed for herd immunity.Chart showing all of TX's school districts below the state's overall MMR vaccine coverage (school district 3 is below 50%)
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Scott Supak @supak.com · 17/03/2025
Either it's time for Kalshi to open the hurricane markets, or the President got a new set of colored markers.
Map of disturbance in Atlantic being watched by the National Hurricane Center, text from them:

> Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1220 PM EDT Mon Mar 17 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:


1. A non-tropical area of low pressure located about 700 miles 
northeast of the northern Leeward Islands is producing gale-force 
winds and a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  
Additional development of this low is not expected as it moves 
northward to northwestward into an environment of strong 
upper-level winds and dry air tonight and Tuesday. Additional 
information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts 
issued by the National Weather Service. 

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWDAT.shtml
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Scott Supak @supak.com · 17/03/2025
Simpsons scene, man pointing at statue of Jimmy Carter yells: "He's history's greatest monster!"
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Scott Supak @supak.com · 11/03/2025
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Scott Supak @supak.com · 10/03/2025
The trick, of course, is to get some facts thru the cloud of ignorance they willfully surround themselves with.
Chart from the Kaiser Foundation: After hearing that the US spends about 1% on foreign aid, fewer adults across political parties say it is too much.

https://www.kff.org/global-health-policy/press-release/poll-two-thirds-believe-dissolving-usaid-will-lead-to-more-illness-and-death-globally-while-nearly-half-say-it-would-significantly-reduce-the-budget-deficit-and-fund-domestic-programs/
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Scott Supak @supak.com · 07/03/2025
CDC update: 222 measles cases so far this year. The Kalshi prediction market forecasts 1006 for the year. kalshi.com/markets/kxme...
Image showing RoI for my position in the measles prediction market at Kalshi. 

Cost: 4415.50
Value now: 5467.82
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Scott Supak @supak.com · 07/03/2025
https://apnews.com/article/collective-bargaining-agreement-tsa-homeland-security-e3eb1d5e0ae8e1b4a6fdb87cd7f6bd39
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Scott Supak @supak.com · 06/03/2025
"tacked right" LOL
https://commons.m.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Political_polarization_in_the_U.S._House.svg
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Scott Supak @supak.com · 04/03/2025
heh
Gallup favorability ratings of Israel by party shows a plunge in support by Democrats and independents, with GOP support flat.
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Scott Supak @supak.com · 28/02/2025
Heh
Atlanta Fed Latest GDP estimate: -1.5 

https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow
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Scott Supak @supak.com · 27/02/2025
Audrey Hepburn looking confused in My Fair Lady (1964)
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Scott Supak @supak.com · 26/02/2025
"...we have measles outbreaks every year."--RFK Jr I'm guessing no one asked the follow-up question: "How many cases is too many?"
Graph of annual measles cases in the US showing the number has dropped from over 100,000 cases per year to only a few hundred per year in the last few years.
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Scott Supak @supak.com · 22/02/2025
Time for the Arctic Sea Ice Minimum market, @kalshiofficial.bsky.social!
OSISAF Fram-FJL export graph showing record amounts of arctic sea ice being exported through the Fram Strait.
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Scott Supak @supak.com · 21/02/2025
"...they believed that without doubt or question they had found the Truth. That was the end of the search. The man spent the rest of his life hunting up shingles wherewith to protect his Truth from the weather."--Mark Twain
 Most Americans, across both parties, say the very wealthy have too much influence on both the government and the White House in general.

https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/how-americans-feel-about-us-rising-income-inequality
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Scott Supak @supak.com · 21/02/2025
Tell them sure, you'll clarify, as long as Trump clarifies his comments about violence against Democrats. www.usnews.com/news/nationa...
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Scott Supak @supak.com · 10/02/2025
Graph of arctic sea ice extent showing this year far below all others.
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Scott Supak @supak.com · 08/02/2025
Happy General Sherman's birthday for those who celebrate!
Photograph of General William Tecumseh Sherman
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Scott Supak @supak.com · 06/02/2025
I have average daily change from here to the arctic sea ice max putting us under 14m km^2 for the first time in the NSIDC record.
Graph of arctic sea ice extent from NSIDC showing that this year is lagging far behind all others, headed for the lowest maximum extent in the record.
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Scott Supak @supak.com · 03/02/2025
I see your La Nina and raise you a global sea surface temperature that's hot everywhere else.
A chart of global sea surface temperatures showing 2025 in 2nd place behind 2024, but not by much.
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Scott Supak @supak.com · 31/01/2025
IKR?
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Scott Supak @supak.com · 30/01/2025
The cruelty is the point.
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Scott Supak @supak.com · 15/01/2025
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Scott Supak @supak.com · 06/12/2024
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Scott Supak @supak.com · 01/12/2024
I haven't watched TV news in decades which probably at least partly explains why I'm good at prediction markets.
Scene from the Simpsons episode "Treehouse of Horror VI" where giant advertising figures terrorize the town and Lisa sings a jingle to stop them: "Just don't look. Just don't look."
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Scott Supak @supak.com · 27/11/2024
We already know what conservatives think counts as a clinical study; ask the families of the more than 80 dead people in Samoa what RFK Jr told them about measles. www.nytimes.com/2024/11/25/o...
In November 2019, when an epidemic of measles was killing children and babies in Samoa, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. — who in recent days became Donald Trump’s pick to lead the department of Health and Human Services — sent the prime minister of Samoa a four-page letter. In it, he suggested the measles vaccine itself may have caused the outbreak.

He claimed that the vaccine might have “failed to produce antibodies” in vaccinated mothers sufficient to provide infants with immunity, that it perhaps provoked “the evolution of more virulent measles strains” and that children who received the vaccine may have inadvertently spread the virus to other children. “Please do not hesitate to contact me if I can be of any assistance,” he added, writing in his role as the chairman of Children’s Health Defense, an anti-vaccine group.

At the time of his letter, 16 people, many of them younger than 2, were already reported dead. Measles, which is among the most contagious diseases, can sometimes lead to brain swelling, pneumonia and death. For months, families grieved over heartbreaking little coffins, until a door-to-door vaccination campaign brought the calamity to a close. The final number of fatalities topped 80.
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