Scott Supak @supak.com · 26/03/2026A lot of that extent was pretty thin mush, too. The market @kalshiofficial.bsky.social will settle at the daily high which was 14.358 on 3/13. Rapid switch to super Nino will likely not be good for the minimum this fall. 010
Scott Supak @supak.com · 02/06/2025Going to break my never-quote-the-motherfucker rule here to say, wtf? He thinks white people invented rock and roll??? 121
Scott Supak @supak.com · 30/05/2025You can see how much black carbon from these fires winds up in the arctic (and eventually lands on the sea ice, which causes it to melt faster): aerosol-alerts.atmosphere.copernicus.eu?lat=68.06146... 120
Scott Supak @supak.com · 30/04/2025Way ahead of you (and Kalshi is legal)! I got in at 40c. kalshi.com/markets/kxre... 010
Scott Supak @supak.com · 08/04/2025Imagine how much it costs to pay people answering the phone when Rasmussen calls. 000
Scott Supak @supak.com · 05/04/2025Decades of betting on bad things happening has numbed me to the guilt. For hurricanes and tornadoes, I donate to charities to help those affected, but I'm not sure who to donate to in this case... maybe a vaccine advocacy group? 020
Scott Supak @supak.com · 25/03/2025lol, Gal acting like what Americans think matters to Donald Fucking Trump or the GOP 000
Scott Supak @supak.com · 20/03/2025The Kalshi prediction market for 2025 measles cases is here: kalshi.com/markets/kxme... 010
Scott Supak @supak.com · 20/03/2025The Kalshi measles market is now predicting over 2000 cases for this year. Here's a good article from @sciam.bsky.social on how even small drops in vaccination rates can mean big numbers of cases. www.scientificamerican.com/article/see-... 120
Scott Supak @supak.com · 17/03/2025Either it's time for Kalshi to open the hurricane markets, or the President got a new set of colored markers. 020
Scott Supak @supak.com · 10/03/2025The trick, of course, is to get some facts thru the cloud of ignorance they willfully surround themselves with. 141
Scott Supak @supak.com · 07/03/2025CDC update: 222 measles cases so far this year. The Kalshi prediction market forecasts 1006 for the year. kalshi.com/markets/kxme... 171
Scott Supak @supak.com · 26/02/2025"...we have measles outbreaks every year."--RFK Jr I'm guessing no one asked the follow-up question: "How many cases is too many?" 020
Scott Supak @supak.com · 22/02/2025Time for the Arctic Sea Ice Minimum market, @kalshiofficial.bsky.social! 030
Scott Supak @supak.com · 21/02/2025"...they believed that without doubt or question they had found the Truth. That was the end of the search. The man spent the rest of his life hunting up shingles wherewith to protect his Truth from the weather."--Mark Twain 020
Scott Supak @supak.com · 21/02/2025Tell them sure, you'll clarify, as long as Trump clarifies his comments about violence against Democrats. www.usnews.com/news/nationa... 020
Scott Supak @supak.com · 06/02/2025I have average daily change from here to the arctic sea ice max putting us under 14m km^2 for the first time in the NSIDC record. 040
Scott Supak @supak.com · 03/02/2025I see your La Nina and raise you a global sea surface temperature that's hot everywhere else. 000
Scott Supak @supak.com · 01/12/2024I haven't watched TV news in decades which probably at least partly explains why I'm good at prediction markets. 020
Scott Supak @supak.com · 27/11/2024We already know what conservatives think counts as a clinical study; ask the families of the more than 80 dead people in Samoa what RFK Jr told them about measles. www.nytimes.com/2024/11/25/o... 042