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Reposted by Stephen Vaisey 🇺🇦

Per Engzell @pengzell.bsky.social · 4h

Two people at a cocktail party. One says: "I'm a fiction writer in the causal inference genre."

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Stephen Vaisey 🇺🇦 @stephenvaisey.com · 29/09/2026

So happy to see (finally) this truly excellent paper in print!

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Burak Sonmez @buraksonmez.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Come and join us @sriucl.bsky.social We’re looking for an Assistant Professor in Quantitative Social Science with a research agenda on the environment and/or climate change, and expertise in causal inference. See full details and apply 👉🏼 www.ucl.ac.uk/work-at-ucl/...

UCL Social Research Institute recruitment poster for an Assistant Professor in Quantitative Social Science at the Centre for Quantitative Social Science. Applications close 30 October 2026.

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Reposted by Stephen Vaisey 🇺🇦

UBI Works @ubiworks.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

Universal training data. Universal dividend.

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Reposted by Stephen Vaisey 🇺🇦

Lisa Janicke Hinchliffe @lisalibrarian.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

Sub your scholarly topic for Ted's, and the observation stays the same. GenAI models are the new mass media, whether we like or not. You cannot "should" people out of using them. You might be able to convince them to go beyond. But the first question is if experts w know what non-experts are told.

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Reposted by Stephen Vaisey 🇺🇦

Ted Underwood @tedunderwood.com · 22/09/2026

Models like Talkie-1930 sound like voices from the past. If they could reliably speak from specified historical vantage points, researchers might also use them to simulate the past. But how reliable are they? Today we release a benchmark answering that question for English contexts 1831-1930.

Free-text evaluation of answers to character modeling and constrained generation questions. This is just one of several scores Chronologic-EN can produce; we focus on it here because it's both the hardest test and the one most relevant to simulation of the past. Frontier models reach 72%; Talkie-1930 is stronger than several larger competitors, but not at the frontier by this measure. Note that this score has improved ~45% in the last two years, but still falls perceptibly short of ground truth.

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Reposted by Stephen Vaisey 🇺🇦

Lauren Valentino @sociologylauren.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

UNC Sociology is hiring! 🐏 We're looking for someone at assistant or associate level in ANY area, willing to teach in our dept's Management & Society program (i.e. courses on organizations, work and occupations, economic sociology, social psychology, non-profits, work and family, AI and work, etc).

unc.peopleadmin.com

Assistant or Associate Professor

The Department of Sociology at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill invites applications for an Assistant or Associate (tenure-track or tenured) faculty position to begin July 1, 2027. We w...

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Reposted by Stephen Vaisey 🇺🇦

Alexander Kim @kchs.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

Published! In my new article, I apply the bounding analysis of age, period, and cohort effects to test whether the rise and fall of poetry and prose in Russian literature can be explained by cohort replacement. Out in @culturalanalytics.bsky.social: culturalanalytics.org/article/id/1...

culturalanalytics.org

Making sure you're not a bot!

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Reposted by Stephen Vaisey 🇺🇦

turgut keskintürk @tkeskinturk.bsky.social · 19/09/2026

the funniest part of the *heterodox* debacle was indeed the fact that the ones preaching rigor do their preaching with the least rigor imaginable.

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Reposted by Stephen Vaisey 🇺🇦

The Dissenter @thedissenteryt.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

New episode (1308), with Dr. Stephen Vaisey (@stephenvaisey.com). We talk about the #Sociology of morality and political beliefs. #Biology #Science YouTube: youtu.be/E3NWGvbOt8w Podcast: bit.ly/4hdJMjg

youtu.be

#1308 Stephen Vaisey: The Sociology of Morality and Political Beliefs

YouTube video by The Dissenter

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Reposted by Stephen Vaisey 🇺🇦

Rebecca Sear @rebeccasear.bsky.social · 08/09/2026

Period measures of fertility, like TFR, are less stable than cohort measures and are currently overstating fertility decline. New paper out on The Long-Term Trends in Cohort Fertility: Global, Regional and National Estimates and Projections for Cohorts Born in 1935–2055 doi.org/10.1111/padr...

Graph from paper comparing period and cohort measures of fertility since 1950 projected to 2100. Lines are similar until around 1990 when period drops below cohort measure and stays below cohort measure

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Reposted by Stephen Vaisey 🇺🇦

Per Engzell @pengzell.bsky.social · 08/09/2026

Causal inference is the art of knowing exactly why your estimate isn't causal

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Reposted by Stephen Vaisey 🇺🇦

Retraction Watch @retractionwatch.com · 04/09/2026

A psychology journal has retracted a seminal 2002 paper on deadlines and procrastination coauthored by behavioral scientist Dan Ariely of Duke University just days after a team of sleuths published analyses of the original study data, finding it had been tampered with.

retractionwatch.com

Procrastination study by Duke’s Dan Ariely retracted after sleuths find signs of data tampering

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Reposted by Stephen Vaisey 🇺🇦

Don Moynihan @donmoyn.bsky.social · 03/09/2026

To the extent that political discussion appears in the classroom, the modal experience is liberal students slightly disappointed that their professors won't endorse their views explicitly.

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Reposted by Stephen Vaisey 🇺🇦

Aaron Sojourner @aaronsojourner.org · 31/08/2026

Self-inflicted head wound

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Reposted by Stephen Vaisey 🇺🇦

moin syed @syeducation.bsky.social · 31/08/2026

More suspicion of tampered/fabricated data in a paper published by Dan Ariely, who incidentally still has his job at Duke.

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Reposted by Stephen Vaisey 🇺🇦

Efrén Pérez @efrenpolipsy.bsky.social · 31/08/2026

The struggle of every quant social scientist 💯😖

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Reposted by Stephen Vaisey 🇺🇦

Solomon Kurz @solomonkurz.bsky.social · 26/08/2026

With {ggcube}, I can finally make versions of Kruschke's 3D plots. It only took 8 years... Here's a couple previews:

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Reposted by Stephen Vaisey 🇺🇦

Philip N Cohen @philipncohen.com · 24/08/2026

Demographic facts I expect my #sociology students to know, 2026 edition. Rationale and sources: familyinequality.wordpress.com/2026/08/24/d...

Number
Source
World Population
8.2 billion
1
U.S. Population
343 million
1
Children under 18 as share of pop.
21%
2
Adults 65+ as share of pop.
19%
2
Official unemployment rate (July 2026)
4.1%
3
Unemployment rate range, 1970-2026
3.5% – 15%
3
Labor force participation rate, age 16+ (July 2026)
61%
9
Labor force participation rate range, 1970-2026
60% – 67%
9
Non-Hispanic Whites as share of pop.
56%
2
Blacks as share of pop.
14%
2
Hispanics as share of pop.
21%
2
Asians / Pacific Islanders as share of pop.
7%
2
American Indians as share of pop.
2%
2
Immigrants as share of pop
14%
2
Adults age 25+ with BA or higher
36%
2
Median household income
$81,000
2
Total poverty rate
13%
8
Child poverty rate
13%
8
Poverty rate age 65+
15%
8
Most populous country, India
1.5 billion
5
2nd most populous country, China
1.4 billion
5
3rd most populous country, USA
342 million
5
4th most populous country, Indonesia
286 million
5
5th most populous country, Pakistan
255 million
5
U.S. male life expectancy at birth
77
6
U.S. female life expectancy at birth
81
6
Life expectancy range across countries
55 – 85
7
World total fertility rate
2.2
10
U.S. total fertility rate
1.6
10
Total fertility rate range across countries
0.7 – 6.0
10

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Reposted by Stephen Vaisey 🇺🇦

Orin Kerr @orinkerr.bsky.social · 17/08/2026

The way things are going with AI, it's probably a smart move for ambitious students to work on their penmanship.

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Reposted by Stephen Vaisey 🇺🇦

Katie Mack @astrokatie.com · 06/08/2026

I understand that funding bodies want to go all in on AI as the shiny new innovation thing. But if all the grants start going to AI at the expense of everything else then the research sector is going to end up looking like a farm with dozens of threshers hacking away in a field with no wheat.

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Reposted by Stephen Vaisey 🇺🇦

Gayle Kaufman @gaylekaufman.bsky.social · 05/08/2026

📣 We are hiring a tenure-track assistant professor in sociology at Davidson College! Could this be your dream job? I'm open to chatting about teaching at a liberal arts college and this position. Just message or email me : ) careercenter.asanet.org/job/1311603/...

careercenter.asanet.org

Tenure Track Assistant Professor - Sociology - Davidson, North Carolina job with Davidson College | 1311603

Tenure Track Assistant Professor - Sociology The Sociology department at Davidson College invites applications for a tenure-track Assistant Profe...

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Reposted by Stephen Vaisey 🇺🇦

Oleg Sobchuk 🇺🇦 @sobchuk.bsky.social · 31/07/2026

Reminder: two weeks are left to apply for the PhD and postdoc positions in my lab. See more info here www.aesthetics.mpg.de/en/career/jo...

Postdoc and PhD positions at MPIAE in Frankfurt

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Reposted by Stephen Vaisey 🇺🇦

Musa al-Gharbi @musaalgharbi.bsky.social · 25/07/2026

#Sociology has been in the news a lot lately. A new piece just dropped in @wsj.com, featuring some comments from me. Per usual, they only used a few sentences from the hour+ conversation. Let me to expand a bit below. tldr: my answer to the titular question is an emphatic "no"🧵

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Reposted by Stephen Vaisey 🇺🇦

NY Times Pitchbot @nytpitchbot.bsky.social · 17/07/2026

If Odysseus had spent less time on forever wars in Troy and more time on issues affecting white working-class citizens of Ithaca, then maybe Penelope's suitors wouldn't have tried to kill him.

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Stephen Vaisey 🇺🇦 @stephenvaisey.com · 14/07/2026

How you react to this interview might be the best Rorschach test for social science faculty ever devised.

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Reposted by Stephen Vaisey 🇺🇦

Jeremy Freese @jeremyfreese.bsky.social · 13/07/2026

Interesting read for sociologists given how sociologists vary in whether anthropology is to be seen as a role model or cautionary tale.

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Reposted by Stephen Vaisey 🇺🇦

Conrad Hackett @conradhackett.bsky.social · 13/07/2026

PLEASE SHARE: The Society for the Scientific Study of Religion has immediate opportunity for new Executive Officer. This part-time, remote position pays $55k. Details in attachment. Apply here bit.ly/SSSR-2026-EO.

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Reposted by Stephen Vaisey 🇺🇦

Andrew Heiss @andrew.heiss.phd · 11/07/2026

woof ≈80% of assignments this summer term have essentially been just raw chatgpt/claude output, including assignments that required designing stuff in illustrator/affinity/canva. The battle is lost for asynchronous online courses.

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Reposted by Stephen Vaisey 🇺🇦

Mohammad Atari @mohammadatari.bsky.social · 08/07/2026

I'm hiring a postdoc in 𝐡𝐢𝐬𝐭𝐨𝐫𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐬𝐲𝐜𝐡𝐨𝐥𝐨𝐠𝐲! This project will focus on psychological change in the Middle East and North Africa, with a particular interest in Islamic history. Topical themes include religiosity, creativity, morality, and institutions. 1/n

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turgut keskintürk @tkeskinturk.bsky.social · 29/06/2026

a new blog post! given how politically sorted occupations are in the U.S., I wanted to examine whether occupational prestige judgments differ by partisanship. using the restricted GSS data from 2012, I show that there is, in fact, no such partisan penalty. post: tkeskinturk.github.io/blog/prestige

partisan differences in core prestige judgments, with ratings among Democrats and ratings among Republicans strongly correlated.

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Reposted by Stephen Vaisey 🇺🇦

Oleg Sobchuk 🇺🇦 @sobchuk.bsky.social · 29/06/2026

📣 I'm hiring! Two positions (PhD student & Postdoc) in my ERC project Macroevolution of European Literature. Let's study the cultural evolution of literature using massive data 📚📈 📍Frankfurt | Apply by August 15 Details: www.aesthetics.mpg.de/en/career/jo... Please repost to help spread the word!

Job announcement of two positions at the Max Planck Institute for Empirical Aesthetics in Frankfurt: postdoc (Macroevolution of European Literature) and PhD student (Computational Literary Studies). Successful candidates will be affiliated with the research group Cultural Evolution of the Arts.

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Elise Cutts @elisecutts.bsky.social · 22/06/2026

I feel like there's a growing gap in perception between people who use LLMs to code or do code-adjacent things and people who only evaluate LLMs on their ability to write prose. This might be a stretched analogy but it reminds me of the different "worlds" of the polarized US media environment.

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Mark Chadbourn @chadbourn.bsky.social · 24/06/2026

A fifth of Leave voters have died.

Graph showing the movement of Leave and Remain voters since 2016

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Reposted by Stephen Vaisey 🇺🇦

Kate Wong @katewong.bsky.social · 23/06/2026

Today is my last day at Scientific American, which has been sold to LabX media group. For three decades I've led the magazine's coverage of human origins, archaeology, paleontology, animal behavior, ecology, BIRDS. End of an era. Anyway this feels weird to say, but I'm now available for assignments!

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turgut keskintürk @tkeskinturk.bsky.social · 18/06/2026

a new working paper with Chris Johnston & @stephenvaisey.com! we study issue opinions among a novel sample of 10-12-year-olds, showing that children, contrary to received wisdom, express reasonably structured preferences. a working paper here: tkeskinturk.github.io/poldevelopment.pdf

The Emerging Structure of Political Preferences in Childhood

Turgut Keskintürk, Christopher D. Johnston, Stephen Vaisey

June, 2026

Research on political development has largely overlooked the opinions children form before adolescence, and paid even less attention to their views on specific issues. In this article, we present an original survey of children aged 10 to 12, conducted in 2024–2025, that measures children’s opinions on several policy issues alongside evaluations of the 2024 presidential candidates and the two major parties. To situate children’s responses in context, we benchmark children against one of their parents, surveyed concurrently, and against the 2024 American National Election Study. We find that children express policy opinions more often than they identify with a party, that these opinions organize along the same left-right axis as adults, if less tightly, and that evaluations of candidates and parties anchor this emerging structure. These findings suggest that children form issue opinions far earlier than scholars have assumed, calling for renewed attention to childhood as a formative and consequential site of political development.

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Paul Smaldino @psmaldino.bsky.social · 04/06/2026

I'm teaching an online workshop on ABM and model-based thinking through ICPSR next month. Details linked below in case you or someone you know is interested.

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Vincent Arel-Bundock @vincentab.bsky.social · 31/05/2026

I’ve grown super worried about LLM agents w/ access to all my files and secrets. Existing sandboxes and containers felt hard to use day-to-day, so I built a small convenient utility to keep agents away from important stuff. It’s called “bulle” (for “bubble”). 1/2 vincentarelbundock.github.io/bulle

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Noah Greifer @noahgreifer.bsky.social · 01/05/2026

This is the clearest and most accessible introduction to DML I've ever read: arxiv.org/abs/2504.08324 Congrats to the authors @aahrens.bsky.social, @markeschaffer.bsky.social, et al on this amazing paper and great accompanying R package! I'm now DML-pilled.

arxiv.org

An Introduction to Double/Debiased Machine Learning

This paper provides an introduction to Double/Debiased Machine Learning (DML). DML is a general approach to performing inference about a target parameter in the presence of nuisance functions: objects...

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Katie Mack @astrokatie.com · 06/04/2026

NASA isn't why the US doesn't have universal healthcare, or a social safety net. The US doesn't have those things because politicians with the power to provide them choose specifically not to (with varying levels of support from voters). Enthusiasm for human spaceflight doesn't drive that choice.

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turgut keskintürk @tkeskinturk.bsky.social · 26/03/2026

we have a new paper in the April issue of Political Psychology. in this (admittedly quite lovely) new paper, @stephenvaisey.com, @pablobellode.bsky.social and I make a simple point: using panel data to understand belief change is very hard. we highlight an empirical intractability in the process:

the front page of the paper, which can be read in:
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/pops.70056

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turgut keskintürk @tkeskinturk.bsky.social · 21/03/2026

there are many out there thinking that it's beneficial to use AI tools for coding, but treat writing as a sacrosanct activity. I think this distinction is a mystification. I discuss why scholarly work is essentially a project, and it's about curating as much as it is refining:

tkeskinturk.github.io

The Anxiety of Influence in Scholarly Writing

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