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Mark Schaffer

@markeschaffer.bsky.social
650 followers 549 following 33 posts

Professor of Economics, Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh

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Reposted by Mark Schaffer
Chris Dillow @chrisdillow.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
New substack: You can marginalize Marxism, but you cannot marginalize the facts. chrisdillow.substack.com/p/marx-on-ai
chrisdillow.substack.com
Marx on AI
Technical change is an issue of what capitalism does to workers.
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Simon Wren-Lewis @sjwrenlewis.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
New post: Racism and xenophobia are not 'legitimate concerns' mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2026/09/raci... When politicians/media describe groups like those in black wearing masks as protestors against asylum seekers in small boats, they presume the motive is 'legitimate concerns' rather than racism.
mainlymacro.blogspot.com
Racism and xenophobia are not 'legitimate concerns'.
During the 2010 election campaign, Prime Minister Gordon Brown was questioned by a member of the public about immigration. Shortly afterwa...
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Sooz Kempner @soozuk.bsky.social · 05/09/2026
Nadine Dorries interviewed by Krishnan Guru-Murthy on Channel 4 last night at Reform Party Conference. Nigel Farage is absolutely fine and actually laughing, not even worried, definitely. Original can be viewed here, it's quite a watch: www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Et3...
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Simon Wren-Lewis @sjwrenlewis.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
New post: Is the fall of Starmer a warning for the Democratic Party? mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2026/09/is-f... Just as voters on the left deserting Labour over social issues were critical in Starmer's fall, could attitudes to Israel upset the Democratic leadership in 2028?
mainlymacro.blogspot.com
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Charles C Roseman @evoroseman.bsky.social · 25/08/2026
RE: freedom of speech, academic freedom, and race science. In this (long) thread, I’m going to 1) establish my bona fides on academic freedom and race science, 2) show why academic freedom and freedom of speech are different and… 1/34
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Deva Woodly @devawo.bsky.social · 25/08/2026
I used to teach in U of C’s core and I’m proud of them for this decision. There’s a lot to say about coming through that grad program, not all of it good. But one thing I cannot fault is the training. This is not a sentimental lot& they don’t mess around about training the human brain-then or now.
forbes.com
University Of Chicago Bans AI, Other Technology, In More Courses
Following up on a similar policy enacted at its law school, the institution will prohibit the use of AI in core social science courses starting in the fall semester.
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Brad DeLong @braddelong.bsky.social · 20/08/2026
Every assignment produces two things: the paper turned in now, and the judgment the student builds for later. AI can raise the first while hollowing out the second—and only one shows up in the grade. So I need to redesign my courses around that fact, and that is only one part—the assessment... 1/
braddelong.substack.com
Here in Academia, “AI” Has Arrived for Software Coding, for Summarization & Search, for Writing Prose, & for Assessment: CHART OF THE DAY
Text got cheap. judgment didn’t. How I hope to teach in 2027: AI has arrived for coding, search, prose, & assessment — three opportunities, and one problemtunity...
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Chris Dillow @chrisdillow.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
New substack: without big changes, slow growth is normal: chrisdillow.substack.com/p/stagnation...
chrisdillow.substack.com
Stagnation: the norm
We need more than tinkering if we are to raise economic growth significantly.
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Dan Davies @dsquareddigest.bsky.social · 11/08/2026
I have written up the "Dobby's Grave" chortle, with my concerns about what it *really* says about the problems with British infrastructure ... backofmind.substack.com/p/chortle-on...
backofmind.substack.com
chortle on a chortle
an underestimated obstacle to infrastructure
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Simon Wren-Lewis @sjwrenlewis.bsky.social · 07/08/2026
This week's post: Long term fiscal projections are a good antidote to politicians talking about tax cuts mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2026/08/long... If you can get past the hand wringing, the OBR's long term fiscal projections contain useful information that most politicians pretend isn't there.
mainlymacro.blogspot.com
Long term fiscal projections are a good antidote to politicians talking about tax cuts
Every July the OBR publishes fiscal projections looking fifty years ahead. Each year the headline is the same. The public finances are on...
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American Statistical Association History of Statistics @hos-asa.bsky.social · 21/07/2026
Few statisticians know that Frank Yates, pioneer of experimental design, is responsible for the annoying practice of indicating 3 tiers of statistical significance by stars (*p ≤ 0.05, **p ≤0.01, ***p ≤ 0.001). He soon regretted it and “vehemently opposed its unthinking use”. And here we are.
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Jonathan Portes @jdportes.bsky.social · 16/07/2026
Starmer and Reeves' legacy is stabilisation without a strategy. My unsolicited advice to Andy Burnham and the new Chancellor. www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
theguardian.com
Burnham must learn from Starmer’s mistakes: Labour was elected to transform the economy, not just stabilise it | Jonathan Portes
Devolution, tax, the EU and immigration: these are all opportunities for growth if Burnham abandons the excessive caution of the past few years, says economist Jonathan Portes
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Eoin McLaughlin @eoinaldo.substack.com · 28/06/2026
Take a look what's under the hood intheweights.com
intheweights.com
IN THE WEIGHTS
The weights are the billions of numbers forming an AI's brain. Type a name and see how strongly the leading AI models recognize it. Are you in the weights?
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Simon Wren-Lewis @sjwrenlewis.bsky.social · 27/06/2026
This week's post: Why governments should not be in hock to the bond market mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2026/06/why-... Policy based on fears about the bond market, or worse about what journalists are writing about that market, will be bad policy. This has become one of Andy Burnham's first tests.
mainlymacro.blogspot.com
Why governments should not be in hock to the bond market
My starting point is not what Andy Burnham said but points recently made by Chris Dillow. Here he argues that we shouldn’t worry about t...
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Simon Wren-Lewis @sjwrenlewis.bsky.social · 19/06/2026
This week's post: The Consequences of Tolerating the Far Right mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2026/06/the-... It is so easy for the media to give the impression that violent crime is associated with immigrants or asylum seekers by publicising selected cases. Media that does this should be called out.
mainlymacro.blogspot.com
The Consequences of Tolerating the Far Right
As I have argued in previous posts , the rise in the far right is not a result of changes in people’s attitudes. In many ways over the las...
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Ben Recht @beenwrekt.bsky.social · 12/06/2026
In _The Ideas Letter_, Leif Weatherby, Tyler Shoemaker, and I wrote about the creation of reality through pseudoscience, religion, and psychosis. Of course, the piece is mostly about AI.
theideasletter.org
Reify This
The authors contend that contemporary efforts to render AI systems interpretable rest on a mistake: reification, the process of treating abstractions and statistical artifacts as if they were concrete...
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Michael Okun @michael-okun.bsky.social · 10/06/2026
I’ve officially resigned as Associate Editor for Frontiers in Systems Neuroscience. It used to be a reputable journal, but became a case study in how forced automation destroys academic integrity. 👇
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Eoin McLaughlin @eoinaldo.substack.com · 06/06/2026
I've apparently been erased by AI slop. A paper cites: "Agarwala & Coyle (2024), Challenges of wealth-based sustainability metrics: A critical appraisal" The actual paper is by McLaughlin, Ducoing & Hanley. Same title, journal, and year, but the AI hallucinated the entire authorship.
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Carl T. Bergstrom @carlbergstrom.com · 28/05/2026
Backstory: we originally wrote this paper in response to 2013–2016 Ebola outbreak, but by the time it worked its way through peer review that outbreak had largely subsided and the paper was rejected as no longer timely. We shelved it until the next relevant outbreak, which happened to be mpox.
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Carl T. Bergstrom @carlbergstrom.com · 03/06/2026
1. How common is LLM use in scientific publishing, and how does it vary across field, publisher, journal prestige, author demographics etc.? @kylesiler.bsky.social has new paper in PNAS that addresses this question on a massive scale: 7.3 million papers from Elsevier, PLOS, MDPI, and Frontiers.
pnas.org
The diffusion of large language models in published academic articles | PNAS
Large language models (LLMs) are rapidly changing academic research, raising questions of who is adopting these tools and under what conditions. Th...
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Institute for Replication @i4replication.bsky.social · 29/05/2026
1/ Can AI help researchers check whether published social science results actually reproduce? In our new PNAS paper, we tested this directly in the AI Replication Games: 288 researchers, 103 teams, and real replication packages from quantitative social science.
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Eoin McLaughlin @eoinaldo.substack.com · 25/05/2026
Deus ex machina: Pope Leo says AI must be 'disarmed' in first major teaching www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
bbc.co.uk
Pope Leo says AI must be 'disarmed' in first major teaching
The pontiff also warned of a "new digital slaveries" in his first encyclical since becoming Pope last year.
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Giles Wilkes @gilesyb.bsky.social · 22/05/2026
IMHO possibly the most interesting question in finance and economics right now is the extent to which future AI dominance can retain any monopoly characteristics. People assume because it's "Silicon Valley" that those explosive network effects will necessarily pertain. They really might not... 1/
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Mutineering @mutineering.bsky.social · 19/05/2026
"Taking macroeconomic advice from bond market traders is like taking advice on how to deal with pandemics from undertakers."... Great quote from @sjwrenlewis.bsky.social #economics #endausterity
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arXiv econ.EM Econometrics @econem-bot.bsky.social · 11/05/2026
Lydia Ashton (University of Wisconsin-Madison): Vibe Econometrics and the Analysis Contract arxiv.org/abs/2605.08071 arxiv.org/pdf/2605.08071 arxiv.org/html/2605.08071
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Following Hadrian @followinghadrian.bsky.social · 09/05/2026
#RomanSiteSaturday — The Roman lighthouse at Patara in Lycia (Türkiye), built under Nero beside the ancient harbour. Probably destroyed by an earthquake in the medieval period, it has now been reconstructed using its original blocks, a rare Roman lighthouse brought back to life in situ.
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Mattan S. Ben-Shachar @mattansb.msbstats.info · 01/05/2026
Maybe teaching #rstats was a mistake? When I first advocated for teaching R in under/grad psych, it felt like the right move: SPSS was rigid and limited only to what can be selected from a stat-analysis decision tree; R on the other hand... 1/
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TheBossRoss 🧶 @thebossross.bsky.social · 05/04/2026
A different perspective. Always helpful.
Christopher Penn wrote:

Just remember that given the abundance of neurodivergent people in science, it's far more likely that autism causes vaccines.
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Noah Greifer @noahgreifer.bsky.social · 01/05/2026
This is the clearest and most accessible introduction to DML I've ever read: arxiv.org/abs/2504.08324 Congrats to the authors @aahrens.bsky.social, @markeschaffer.bsky.social, et al on this amazing paper and great accompanying R package! I'm now DML-pilled.
arxiv.org
An Introduction to Double/Debiased Machine Learning
This paper provides an introduction to Double/Debiased Machine Learning (DML). DML is a general approach to performing inference about a target parameter in the presence of nuisance functions: objects...
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Alison Fisk @alisonfisk.bsky.social · 25/04/2026
Some 3,300 years ago, an ancient Egyptian artist painted this comic illustration of a cat herding geese! 😻 They used a flake of limestone as a sketchpad for this fun scene. From Deir el-Medina, Thebes. 📷 Egyptian Museum, Cairo. #Archaeology
The image shows a buff-coloured flake of limestone with a painted illustration of a cat herding geese, displayed against a black background. On the left of the scene, a tabby cat (brown with black line markings) stands on its hind legs in a human-like pose, facing right. In its upraised left paw it holds out a wooden staff to keep six geese in order. In its right paw it is holding the end of a long crook which it rests on its shoulder. A bag hangs by a strap from the end of the crook behind the cat. The six geese in front of the cat are arranged in two rows of three, one row above the other. The geese have brown legs, and white bodies with black plummage detail. Three of the geese have black painted heads and necks; top left, top right, and bottom middle. Above the geese there is a curved double brown line representing a nest filled with four white eggs in a row. Flake dimensions: H 11 cm x W 11 cm.
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post malone ergo propter malone @proptermalone.bsky.social · 22/04/2026
so i guess as a pulse check here's where I'm at on AI: 1) i don't think the AI corps are going to successfully take over the world. local models are too accessible. not enough moat.
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Jessica Hullman @jessicahullman.bsky.social · 22/04/2026
When does using AI to produce research slip into fraud? And why does so much AI-for-science 'optimism' actually rest on a deeply pessimistic view of scientific agency? 🤔 New post: statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/04/22/f...
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu
Fraud and the false optimism of AI for science | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
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Julia M. Rohrer @dingdingpeng.the100.ci · 27/03/2026
Swiss court has ruled that vegan milk substitutes are neither allowed to be called “milk” nor (literally) “not milk” which I guess technically leaves the set of admissible names for vegan milk substitutes empty. www.srf.ch/news/schweiz...
srf.ch
Laut Bundesgericht darf Hafermilch nicht «Milk» genannt werden.
Vegane Hafermilch darf laut Bundesgericht nicht «Milk» genannt werden.
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William Gibson @greatdismal.bsky.social · 23/03/2026
But I would have gotten the haircut right.
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Dr Rebecca Wragg Sykes @lemoustier.bsky.social · 20/03/2026
🧪 #FossilFriday Mummified baboon, Namibian cave, prob lost beyond the roosting chamber. Re: taphonomy of Homo #Naledi, this baboon was +70m in, via small tunnels, and despite humid cave it formed in arid ledge microclimate. as did a 2nd one, in <5 yrs. digitalcommons.usf.edu/cgi/viewcont...
Screengrab of a black and white photograph of a mummufied baboon crouched on a rocky ledge. It's eyeballs are even visible.
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Steve Bullock @guitarmoog.bsky.social · 17/03/2026
Happy 75th anniversary to the Fender Telecaster! Checking, it turns out I’ve had a few over the years.
Tele Ultra in Texas TeaSquier thinline Tele in Son9c Blue with gold anodised pickguard and added Bigsby B-50Acousticsonic Tele in Brushed BlackVintage Reissue ‘52 Tele in butterscotch
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Arin Dube @arindube.bsky.social · 17/03/2026
People have long predicted that IT would greatly reduce search frictions, including in labor markets. Surprisingly, it hasn’t. One reason is cognitive limits. But another is adversarial adaptation, including signal jamming. In many markets, an arms race develops, blunting any efficiency gains.
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Simon Wren-Lewis @sjwrenlewis.bsky.social · 10/03/2026
New post: Idiot Wind mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2026/03/idio... What Trump’s pointless war against Iran tells us about the US government, the UK political right and the mainstream media in both countries.
mainlymacro.blogspot.com
Idiot Wind
What Trump’s war against Iran tells us about the US government, the UK political right and the mainstream media in both countries What...
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Joshua Gans @joshgans.bsky.social · 04/03/2026
I don't think we will have a Journopoclypse open.substack.com/pub/joshuaga...
open.substack.com
Journopoclypse!
Yeah, na. I don't think so
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Robin Blythe @rbly.bsky.social · 03/03/2026
To elaborate on this a little in a health economics context: I do some work on the effectiveness of algorithmic prediction on pt outcomes. Identifying both mechanisms and outcomes is an *incredibly* complicated process, not least because patients are always being intervened upon. > #statsky #episky
media.tenor.com
a close up of a cat 's face with mathematical equations on it
ALT: a close up of a cat 's face with mathematical equations on it
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Institute for Replication @i4replication.bsky.social · 26/02/2026
Where have all the comments gone? For decades, the American Economic Review regularly published formal comments — papers that replicate, reassess, or challenge earlier AER articles. In our latest blog post, we show: they’ve nearly disappeared.
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Simon Wren-Lewis @sjwrenlewis.bsky.social · 24/02/2026
New post: Budgets are about much more than fiscal sustainability mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2026/02/budg... The impression that the OBR forecast sets fiscal policy is because politicians and the media have ignored or downplayed other key aspects of what fiscal policy should be about.
mainlymacro.blogspot.com
Budgets are about much more than fiscal sustainability
Ben Zaranko of the IFS has just published a paper on fiscal rule s. It is well researched and well written, but I disagree with its conclu...
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Sunder Katwala (sundersays) @sundersays.bsky.social · 23/02/2026
This is stenography, not news reporting. The BBC ought to provide some context, such as putting the scale of the changes which Reform claim are possible into context. This omits the major policy of revoking ILR and deporting legal migrants at unprecedented scale. www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
bbc.co.uk
Reform promises agency to ensure illegal migrant removals
The party's new home affairs spokesman Zia Yusuf says it would be a
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Simon Wren-Lewis @sjwrenlewis.bsky.social · 17/02/2026
New post: How Labour makes fighting right wing populism harder mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2026/02/how-... 'Tilting left' won't help. Labour has lost much of its base not so much because it hasn’t been left wing enough in economic terms, but more because it has sounded and acted in an illiberal way.
mainlymacro.blogspot.com
How Labour makes fighting right wing populism harder
I must confess that this post will be very similar to one I wrote a fortnight ago. The big difference is that this is about this Labour g...
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Per Engzell @pengzell.bsky.social · 17/02/2026
Interviewers were paid per interview, not per hour, so they nudged respondents to skip those questions. Make the question less burdensome, train or monitor interviewers, or (radical idea) pay them properly and missing friends reappear. 3/
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Julia M. Rohrer @dingdingpeng.the100.ci · 17/02/2026
Psychologists following a third-variable control strategy that may be best described as "sequential."
Anakin-Padme meme.
Anakin: Additionally, we considered the confounders c1, c2 and c3.

Padme: And you included all of them in a single model, right?
Padme: And you included all of them in a single model, right?
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Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · 16/02/2026
New post out: We have a guest post today from the excellent @dsquareddigest.bsky.social. "Build the Rail! Save the snails!" Or how we don't need to sacrifice the environment to speed up our mad planning processes. (Free to read) open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/b...
open.substack.com
Build the Rail! Save the Snails!
How to speed up the planning system without trashing the environment
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Ben Johnson @ersatzben.com · 14/02/2026
I've written about the UKRI funding situation and the 'buckets' explainer, looking in detail at QR, STFC and Quantum. www.ersatzben.com/p/the-bucket...
ersatzben.com
The Bucket Stops Here
UKRI’s new funding framework takes a stab at classifying budgets – but doesn’t yet govern research
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