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turgut keskintürk

@tkeskinturk.bsky.social
1.8K followers 332 following 158 posts

sociology phd candidate at duke | tkeskinturk.github.io

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turgut keskintürk @tkeskinturk.bsky.social · 2h
the existence of diff-in-diff implies the existence of sum-in-sum.
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Stephen Vaisey 🇺🇦 @stephenvaisey.com · 6h
The real DiD was the friends we made along the way.
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turgut keskintürk @tkeskinturk.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
peter hull comparing TWFE and modern DIDs & it seems TWFE is OK. people will go "YOU SEE IT DIDN'T MATTER AFTER ALL" but regardless of whether TWFE is ultimately useful or not that all DiD chaos was a net good because it clarified the estimand. tinyurl.com/twfevsdid
Two-Way Fixed Effects and Modern Difference-in-Differences: An Empirical Comparison

Peter Hull, Brown University
8 October 2026

This note compares two-way fixed effects (TWFE) estimates from top general-interest journals in economics with estimates from the group-time difference-in-differences estimator of Callaway and Sant’Anna (2021; CSA) and the imputation estimator of Borusyak, Jaravel, and Spiess (2024; BJS). We use recovered observation-level data and focus on binary treatments with staggered adoption. Sign reversals are relatively rare, and especially so with statistically significant differences.
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turgut keskintürk @tkeskinturk.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
a Granovetter-Jackson win would bridge our painful divides...
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Stephen Vaisey 🇺🇦 @stephenvaisey.com · 07/10/2026
BTW this means no funding for GSS, ANES, or PSID. GSS 2026 is in the field now, but then it looks like that's it. Devastating for social science.
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David Brady @davebrady72.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
Very interesting new article linking historical racism and contemporary attitudes.
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turgut keskintürk @tkeskinturk.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
it is almost time for the annual *Well Actually It's Not A Real Nobel Prize, Alfred Nobel Never Talked About Economics* discourse.
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Grace @gracekind.net · 07/10/2026
Holy shit
Openai github repository named "critical-theory"
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Ariel Edwards-Levy @aedwardslevy.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
my greatest secret is that because I am a public-opinion nerd, everyone thinks I am also an elections nerd, and by nature I am not
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Kieran Healy @kjhealy.co · 03/10/2026
If I were a philosopher I would simply solve the hard problem, and the other problems, perhaps by doing a breakthrough of some kind, or by biting a bullet, or by answering a different question I know the answer to, something of that nature
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turgut keskintürk @tkeskinturk.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
a new paper forthcoming in British Journal of Political Science! we use a novel choice task to estimate values in the Schwartz Value Space and study how these values structure political preferences among kids, one of their parents, and a U.S. sample. read: tkeskinturk.github.io/values-politics.pdf
Values and Political Preferences in Childhood
Christopher D. Johnston
Martín Opertti
Turgut Keskintürk

October, 2026
Abstract
Studies of youth political development focus primarily on political socialization and salient events, while paying relatively less attention to important individual differences among children themselves, such as values. We administer an original survey to a sample of 10-to-12-year-olds and show that children’s value priorities strongly predict their political preferences, and that one dimension of value priorities continues to predict political preferences even after adjusting for parental values and political preferences. Taken together, our findings suggest that pre-teens already use their own value priorities to organize their political attitudes, which emphasizes the importance of children’s independent attributes in their political development, and lends support to the idea that personal values provide a foundation for political ideology.
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turgut keskintürk @tkeskinturk.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
a very important intervention to this debate.
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Jeremy Freese @jeremyfreese.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
When it closed, the server was opened to reveal a little man who took a bow.
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Seth Masket @smotus.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
The 1972 ANES is a trip
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turgut keskintürk @tkeskinturk.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
the NYT 100 best TV shows list is not real, it can't hurt you.
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Hilma Lindskog @hilmal.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Do educational networks at workplaces shape political attitudes? 👬 Happy to share that the latest paper in my dissertation is now published in @bjpols.bsky.social.
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particle dogs @particledogs.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
An energy weapon (work computer) is beaming harmful rays (emails) at me
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turgut keskintürk @tkeskinturk.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
a fun passage from Harsanyi on why gotchas against utility maximization are actually quite confused on their target:
In other words, a Bayesian need not have any special desire to maximize his expected utility per se. Rather, he simply wants to act in accordance with a few very important rationality axioms; and he knows that this fact has the inevitable mathematical implication of making his behavior equivalent to expected-utility maximization. As long as he obeys these rationality axioms, he simply cannot help acting as if he assigned  numerical utilities, at least implicitly, to alternative possible outcomes of his behavior, and assigned numerical probabilities, at least implicitly, to alternative contingencies that may arise, and as if he then tried to maximize his expected utility in terms of these utilities and probabilities chosen by hirn. (In fact, after observing his actions, we can always compute the utilities and probabilities implicit in his behavior.)
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Stephen Nuñez @socio-steve.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
They don't know I'm gonna be the pope
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turgut keskintürk @tkeskinturk.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
the funniest part of the *heterodox* debacle was indeed the fact that the ones preaching rigor do their preaching with the least rigor imaginable.
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turgut keskintürk @tkeskinturk.bsky.social · 13/09/2026
a new paper forthcoming in Social Forces! focusing on the killing of George Floyd & the BLM, I study the formation of generations, proposing that formative events can create within-cohort differentiation as much as between-cohort differentiation. read here: tkeskinturk.github.io/imprinting.pdf
Generational Imprinting: How Political Events Shape Cohorts
Contemporary narratives of generational politics propose that formative experiences produce shared political opinions across an age cohort. In this article, I advance a theory of cohortization to challenge that view, arguing that large-scale political events produce differentiation within cohorts as much as differentiation between them. I investigate the implications of this framework through the killing of George Floyd and the subsequent Black Lives Matter protests in 2020, analyzing attitudes toward law enforcement among non-Hispanic White Americans from 2016 to 2024. Using survey data from Cooperative Congressional Election Study, American National Election Study, and the Nationscape, I show that younger and older cohorts diverged after the event, but this differentiation was driven exclusively by young Democrats and Independents. The end result was not a unified generation, but one internally divided along party lines. This finding qualifies theories of generational politics, emphasizing that formative experiences may intensify existing political divisions within cohorts.

This is my generation
This is my generation, baby
My, my, my, my generation
— The Who, “My Generation” (1965)
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Yashar Ali 🐘 @yasharali.bsky.social · 07/09/2026
Thirty-four days before she reported to prison, Theranos founder Elizabeth Holmes gave Nathan Fielder and Lance Oppenheim access to document her every move. That turned into a three-year project, and A24 will release the resulting documentary this October.
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Kim Weeden @weedenkim.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
Fascinating study of video data on class differences in parenting styles about food and mealtimes. Class differences in parenting styles are fairly weak and the boundaries blurry. #socsky: a good addition to syllabus if you teach Lareau or Bourdieu, or more generally about social class "cultures."
sociologicalscience.com
Social Class Differences in Parenting? Revisiting Classed Childrearing through a Video-Ethnography of Mealtime
Article: Social Class Differences in Parenting? Revisiting Classed Childrearing through a Video-Ethnography of Mealtime | Sociological Science | Posted August 25, 2026
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Kieran Healy @kjhealy.co · 29/08/2026
faculties have simply succeeded better than theirs in cutting through the fog. A no-nonsense attitude can be conveyed by various assertions (asser-tions are always to be preferred to anything weaker, such as suppositions or questions). Examples include "I'm not interested in what we can know, I'm interested in what's the case". In introductory remarks, avoid "I will attempt to show" and "I will argue"—go instead for "I shall show", "I shall refute", "I shall destroy", etc.
The Argument from Italics
In discussion, a liberal use of emphasis will tend to count as bluster or proto-bluster. In print, on the other hand, a scattering of italics on the page can sometimes create an atmosphere of care and even rigour. Readers are pleaded with to see the very fine distinction being drawn to their attention.
Italicization may also, of course, be used for introducing technical terms (see "Slogans and Neologisms").
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turgut keskintürk @tkeskinturk.bsky.social · 29/08/2026
adding this footnote to a 55-word definition... legendary move:
"In order to emphasize this succinct definition, the authors italicized it."
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turgut keskintürk @tkeskinturk.bsky.social · 28/08/2026
a new job market paper! using surveys from 10.4 million college students over 40 years, I study the role of ideology in career aspirations. I show that ideology structures what careers people want, a pattern much stronger among high-income students. see here: tkeskinturk.github.io/aspirations.pdf
Ideology as a Luxury Good in Occupational Choice
Turgut Keskintürk
Duke University

Abstract
Career aspirations are formed long before people enter the labor market, but whether and how political ideology is part of that formative process remains poorly understood. Using yearly surveys of 10.4 million college freshmen entering U.S. institutions between 1976 and 2015, I show that ideology systematically structures occupational aspirations. This pattern is two to three times larger among students from the highest socioeconomic backgrounds than among those from the lowest. To explain this difference, I propose a luxury-good interpretation: political congruence, the match between one's politics and an occupation's perceived ideological orientation, constitutes an occupational amenity whose importance increases with material security. This, I theorize, makes ideology an expressive resource for life choices, though one that is unequally distributed.
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Jacob T. Levy @jacobtlevy.bsky.social · 24/08/2026
On this day in 2018. Kieran @kjhealy.co ‘s obituary will include the MacArthur essay and “Fuck Nuance,” but for a particular niche audience of connoisseurs, this is his masterpiece.
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Mike Murphy @mjamurphy.bsky.social · 17/08/2026
New causal inference primer just dropped - he's not on socials but many thanks to Scott Cunningham for this amazing free resource #EconSky
mixtape.scunning.com
Causal Inference The Remix
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turgut keskintürk @tkeskinturk.bsky.social · 16/08/2026
🫡
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turgut keskintürk @tkeskinturk.bsky.social · 15/08/2026
this whole discourse about academics causing right-wing attacks on academia reminds me of the Turkish phrase "isn't the thief guilty at all?" (hırsızın hiç mi suçu yok?), what you say to those who tell you that you should have locked your door, should have had an alarm, etc.
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turgut keskintürk @tkeskinturk.bsky.social · 13/08/2026
I'll go one step further: the BLM I think also generated some strong cohort dynamics, such that the future will be even more progressive (at least on this issue). young-old differentiation after the event: (also, a shameless plug: tkeskinturk.github.io/imprinting.pdf).
young-old differentiation (using a diff-in-diff estimator) on unfavorable attitudes toward the police.
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turgut keskintürk @tkeskinturk.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
well, El-Sayed won by ~1% (~15,000 votes out of 1.5M for the two), Hong lost by ~0.5% (~4,000 votes out of ~600,000). FWIW, I think whatever lesson we want from either is not there.
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turgut keskintürk @tkeskinturk.bsky.social · 07/08/2026
folks, the Atlantic did it again:
"Even before the push alert about his resignation from the University of Cambridge this week, Jason Arday might well have been the world’s most famous living sociologist."
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Amanda Silberling @amanda.omg.lol · 23/07/2026
reading this thread like "haha what a coincidence this person who's talking about the odyssey is named is emily wilson" and then clicking on their profile and being like oh that actually is Emily Wilson
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Museum of Twitter @museum-of-twitter.bsky.social · 21/07/2026
Tweet from atrophy wife 🎀 (@zuza_real):

Y'all still follow Jonathan Swift? The man who literally supports eating babies?

(some time later)

Obviously the whole time I knew he was joking but it's still not okay. Here's why [1/20]
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Spooky Sara (Endless Halloween🔪🩸🪦) @pashion.bsky.social · 16/07/2026
everyday
Brendan Gleeson and Colin Farrell both with guns pointed at Colin Farrells head  "In Bruges" (2008)
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Asjad Naqvi @asjadnaqvi.bsky.social · 07/07/2026
The #DiD page has been updated after two years! The site has been substantially cleaned up: code is now better documented, resources have been expanded, list of Stata/Python/R/Julia packages updated, and all Stata code has been revalidated. Check it out: asjadnaqvi.github.io/DiD/
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turgut keskintürk @tkeskinturk.bsky.social · 06/07/2026
just had a hit post and now Deep Bluesky is after me.
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turgut keskintürk @tkeskinturk.bsky.social · 06/07/2026
data visualization is my passion.
fox news showing weekly temperatures: 92, 92, 92, 94, 94, 92, 92, with a very strong gap between 94 and 92.
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turgut keskintürk @tkeskinturk.bsky.social · 02/07/2026
the new york times apparently made the *unforgivable* mistake of confusing anarchists with democratic socialists in a recent write-up, but in fairness to them the original report had a pie-chart:
Corrected on July 1, 2026: An earlier version of this article misstated results of a D.S.A. membership survey. About 39.3 percent of respondents identified as democratic socialists and 10.7 percent as anarchists, not 10.7 percent as democratic socialists and 39.3 percent as anarchists.

We acknowledge mistakes in our reporting with corrections. If you spot an error, please let us know at corrections@nytimes.com.Learn more.pie chart of ideological profiles in the DSA.
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turgut keskintürk @tkeskinturk.bsky.social · 01/07/2026
with very large numbers of covariates you don't need randomization.
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turgut keskintürk @tkeskinturk.bsky.social · 01/07/2026
early on I was happy that LLMs can proofread my writing so that I can fix my broken English, but now I feel the need to keep it broken just to signal that I just wrote the damn thing myself.
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turgut keskintürk @tkeskinturk.bsky.social · 29/06/2026
a new blog post! given how politically sorted occupations are in the U.S., I wanted to examine whether occupational prestige judgments differ by partisanship. using the restricted GSS data from 2012, I show that there is, in fact, no such partisan penalty. post: tkeskinturk.github.io/blog/prestige
partisan differences in core prestige judgments, with ratings among Democrats and ratings among Republicans strongly correlated.
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turgut keskintürk @tkeskinturk.bsky.social · 18/06/2026
a new working paper with Chris Johnston & @stephenvaisey.com! we study issue opinions among a novel sample of 10-12-year-olds, showing that children, contrary to received wisdom, express reasonably structured preferences. a working paper here: tkeskinturk.github.io/poldevelopment.pdf
The Emerging Structure of Political Preferences in Childhood

Turgut Keskintürk, Christopher D. Johnston, Stephen Vaisey

June, 2026

Research on political development has largely overlooked the opinions children form before adolescence, and paid even less attention to their views on specific issues. In this article, we present an original survey of children aged 10 to 12, conducted in 2024–2025, that measures children’s opinions on several policy issues alongside evaluations of the 2024 presidential candidates and the two major parties. To situate children’s responses in context, we benchmark children against one of their parents, surveyed concurrently, and against the 2024 American National Election Study. We find that children express policy opinions more often than they identify with a party, that these opinions organize along the same left-right axis as adults, if less tightly, and that evaluations of candidates and parties anchor this emerging structure. These findings suggest that children form issue opinions far earlier than scholars have assumed, calling for renewed attention to childhood as a formative and consequential site of political development.
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