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Rob Johns

@robjohns75.bsky.social
2.3K followers 706 following 285 posts

Some public opinion

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Rob Johns @robjohns75.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
Nothing captures it as vividly as the second sentence here.
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Rob Johns @robjohns75.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
Now topical! @psaepop.bsky.social
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Rob Johns @robjohns75.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
A Laffer, not a listener. #today #bbcradio4
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Rob Johns @robjohns75.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
Plaintive, increasingly desperate stuff. But I won't weaken.
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James Dennison @jamesrdennison.bsky.social · 14/08/2026
Special delivery! 📚 Very happy to receive the first copies of What Europeans Think About Immigration and Why It Matters, my new book with @andrewpgeddes.bsky.social, out now with @oxfordunipress.bsky.social Great to see this in physical form!
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Amanda Bittner @bittner.bsky.social · 13/08/2026
Beyond excited to announce that the newest edition of PUBLIC OPINION, written by Rosalee Clawson, Zoe Oxley, and ME(!!) is available now! This book is filled with lots of cool material geared towards undergrads, super proud! Find the book here: collegepublishing.sagepub.com/products/pub...
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Jac Larner @jaclarner.bsky.social · 04/08/2026
Two(!) permanent lectureships coming up at Cardiff: One in political behaviour/opinion cardiffuniweb.eploy.net/vacancies/52... One in British politics (very loosely defined) cardiffuniweb.eploy.net/vacancies/53... Feel free to get in touch and I'll be happy to answer any questions I can
cardiffuniweb.eploy.net
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Alex Coppock @aecoppock.bsky.social · 28/07/2026
Just an enormous difference in Russian support for the war when comparing direct question estimates with experiments from list experiments. Also, peep those CIs! sensitivity bias has to be HUGE (which it apparently is in this case) to be detected with Direct - List
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Maarten Vink @maartenpvink.bsky.social · 27/07/2026
Fantastic job opportunity at the European University Institute in Florence: Stein Rokkan Chair in Comparative Politics Application deadline: October 15. @eui-sps.bsky.social www.eui.eu/Documents/Se...
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Maarten Vink @maartenpvink.bsky.social · 27/07/2026
Check out also at @eui-sps.bsky.social Peter Mair Assistant Professorship in Comparative Politics Deadline: 27 August 2026 at midnight (Florence time) www.eui.eu/About/JobOpp...
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Rob Johns @robjohns75.bsky.social · 25/07/2026
Tomorrow: “Norris slams spiders for having eight legs”.
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Rob Johns @robjohns75.bsky.social · 24/07/2026
Meaningless correlations, p-hacking, vast swathes of marginally incremental research -- I mean, for those of us in political behaviour this dystopian world is frankly hard to conceive of. www.ft.com/content/52e6...
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YouGov @yougov.co.uk · 23/07/2026
If you had a choice between instantly receiving £50,000 or a 50% chance to win £1m, which would you pick? £50,000: 73% 50/50 chance of winning £1m: 21% yougov.com/en-gb/daily-...
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Victor Araújo @victoraraujo.bsky.social · 23/07/2026
📄 New pre-print on SSRN New evidence on a timely question: Does holding anti-democratic leaders legally accountable produce democratic backlash? Contrary to widespread concerns, I find no evidence that accountability increased affective polarisation or reduced support for democracy. 🧵👇
papers.ssrn.com
Does Holding Anti-Democratic Leaders Accountable Backfire? Evidence from Bolsonaro's Arrest in Brazil
Whether holding anti-democratic leaders accountable strengthens or weakens democracy remains one of the unresolved questions in contemporary debates about democ
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Rob Johns @robjohns75.bsky.social · 22/07/2026
I’d say that the Italian vowel is about one third of the way from the English wide open ‘a’ to the American ‘parsta’ version.
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Rob Johns @robjohns75.bsky.social · 22/07/2026
I’ve seen a version of this presented at a conference and so I know that it’s a) very good and b) many miles up the street of my @essexsummerschool.bsky.social students on the Designing & Analysing Surveys class.
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Josh Gabbatiss @joshgabbatiss.bsky.social · 21/07/2026
As Ed Miliband leaves his post as energy and net-zero secretary, a final tally: There have been an incredible 251 newspaper editorials attacking him and his approach to net-zero since the start of 2024 That amounts to two editorials a week, mainly in the Sun, Daily Mail, Times and Daily Telegraph.
cumulative line chart showing that UK newspapers have published 251 editorials criticising Ed Miliband since the start of 2024
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Rob Johns @robjohns75.bsky.social · 21/07/2026
Always nice to see a sprawling literature brought to order.
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Dr Matt Lodder @mattlodder.com · 20/07/2026
Behold, the delightful Lyttle Lytton contest for the worst opening sentences for books that do not exist. It's a glorious little experiment with what, truly, makes writing "bad". adamcadre.ac/lyttle/2026....
adamcadre.ac
The 2026 Lyttle Lytton Contest
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Rob Johns @robjohns75.bsky.social · 20/07/2026
Thanks to @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social for the excellent time series, and thanks in advance to anyone keen enough on such things to consider buying the book -- the latest edition of the David Denver-inaugurated Elections & Voters in Britain -- in which the graph and more of its kind might end up.
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Rob Johns @robjohns75.bsky.social · 20/07/2026
Through little fault of Starmer's, this is an era in which the erstwhile 'big two' (so far the only providers of post-war PMs) are historically unpopular. Since it was those parties' dwindling bands of loyalists that kept PM approval afloat, no surprise that those ratings are in secular decline.
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Rob Johns @robjohns75.bsky.social · 20/07/2026
Of course, you might say "but Labour was so unpopular *because* he was the leader". Then I'd say "well, there's something in that, but generally a personality-obsessed media overestimate the leader-->party evaluations bit and underestimate how hard it is for leaders to transcend unpopular parties".
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Rob Johns @robjohns75.bsky.social · 20/07/2026
I thought Keir Starmer might need some cheering up and so here's a graph which shows his personal popularity above a regression line. Main message: while he may have the record for the lowest approval ratings ever, that's got a fair bit to do with the unpopularity of his party.
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Julia M. Rohrer @dingdingpeng.the100.ci · 20/07/2026
New paper out now 🥳 When psychologists discuss generalisability, they often refer to vague notions of representativeness. We provide an accessible intro to the total survey error framework as a tool to reason about this more rigorously. w @taymalsalti.bsky.social @ruben.the100.ci >
Thinking Clearly About Sampling and Representation With the Total Survey Error Framework

Collecting a sample that represents the population of interest well constitutes a challenge across the social and behavioural sciences. Psychology in particular frequently relies on convenience samples—most notably students and, increasingly, online participants—with a tendency to either (implicitly) assume representativeness without substantive justification, or to acknowledge a lack of it only in passing. In contrast, researchers rarely engage with the actual implications for their inferences, which undermines the generalisability of psychological findings. Critically, representativeness must be defined with respect to variables relevant to the target of inference, rather than superficial demographic diversity. Here we present the Total Survey Error (TSE) framework as a methodological tool that systematically addresses the multifaceted sources of error—particularly those related to representation—that emerge throughout the research cycle. Although TSE originated in survey research, its principles are broadly applicable to any psychological study seeking inference from sample to population. We offer practical strategies for identifying, preventing, and mitigating representation errors to improve the credibility and generalisability of psychological research.

Illustration of the total survey error framework with the representation strand highlighted. It shows how coverage error, sampling error and non-response error arise during the sampling process.
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Essex Summer School in Social Science Data Analysis @essexsummerschool.bsky.social · 15/07/2026
🔊 Today! Wednesday 15 July, 6:30pm Ryan T Moore: "10 Experiments in Public Policy and What We Can Learn from Them" Free webinar registation ➡️ essex-university.zoom.us/s/95830499314 #ESS2026 #EssexSummerSchool
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Marie Le Conte @youngvulgarian.marieleconte.com · 14/07/2026
first they add fizzy drinks to our red wine, now this
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Rob Johns @robjohns75.bsky.social · 11/07/2026
Not sure we need you to report back on the answer to that question…
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Rob Johns @robjohns75.bsky.social · 09/07/2026
Life’s pretty good (even when working) at @essexsummerschool.bsky.social. If you’re not here this year, see you next year for the 60th anniversary edition.
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Jonn Elledge @jonnelledge.bsky.social · 07/07/2026
Other parties should stand aside for Binface
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Rob Johns @robjohns75.bsky.social · 04/07/2026
One for @drjennings.bsky.social and @lawrencemckay.bsky.social
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Rob Ford @robfordmancs.bsky.social · 01/07/2026
This is a big problem. If the last information people receive is always “numbers went up” because “numbers went down” is never reported we shouldn’t be surprised that perceptions about immigration end up so skewed. Media should take some responsibility here - this is a salient and polarising issue.
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Joe Phillips @polpsychjoe.bsky.social · 25/06/2026
New publication out and open access at @poqjournal.bsky.social with the legendary @jaclarner.bsky.social! How does support for the UK monarchy change over the lifespan or differ between cohorts? 🧵 (1/x) doi.org/10.1093/poq/...
doi.org
Long May They Reign? Age and Cohort Effects on Monarchism in the UK
Abstract. The monarchy is a long-standing British institution that enjoys high visibility across the world. However, there is concern that younger generati
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👻madeline bOoOoOoOodent👻 @oldenoughtosay.com · 29/06/2026
good morning everyone, Mondays are hard, would you like a thread of the most expensive house currently on Rightmove for every English county? here's a thread of the most expensive house currently on rightmove for every English (ceremonial) county. we'll be going alphabetically
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UACES (University Association for Contemporary European Studies) @uaces.bsky.social · 22/06/2026
Calling all PhD students and Early Career Researchers in European Studies Join us for this year’s Graduate Forum Doctoral Training Academy (DTA), taking place on Sunday 6 September at Charles University, Prague Registration Opens July 1st #UACES2026 #DoctoralTrainingAcademy #EuropeanStudies
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Rob Johns @robjohns75.bsky.social · 22/06/2026
It was the year of both Gazza’s and Thazza’s tears.
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Kai Arzheimer @kai-arzheimer.com · 21/06/2026
Life goals
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Rob Johns @robjohns75.bsky.social · 21/06/2026
The headline should have read “Doku criticised by one person, who has since basically retracted that attack, while being backed by many, many others”. But it didn’t. (I suppose we should be grateful it didn’t say ‘slammed’.) www.bbc.co.uk/sport/footba...
bbc.co.uk
World Cup 2026: Jeremy Doku criticised over plan to leave Belgium camp for birth of child
Winger Jeremy Doku is criticised for saying he wants to leave Belgium's World Cup camp to be with his wife when she gives birth to their first child.
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Steve Yates @yatesyman.bsky.social · 20/06/2026
This story currently leads BBC Scotland. But down here in London you have to scroll all the way down past the London news, the World Cup, whatever the BBC calls its Reels equivalent, more World Cup, weekend picks and 'lazy summer recipes' to the 'around the UK' to see it
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Rob Johns @robjohns75.bsky.social · 18/06/2026
With the winner seemingly in little doubt, the betting interest in Makerfield lies elsewhere.
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Jac Larner @jaclarner.bsky.social · 18/06/2026
Come join us next Tuesday for new analysis on how Wales has changed in the 10 years since the Eu Referendum 👇
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Rob Johns @robjohns75.bsky.social · 18/06/2026
Now, these times can’t both be right. (Don’t worry: of course neither of them was.) #EPSS2026
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Rob Johns @robjohns75.bsky.social · 14/06/2026
There’s something in that — and that would enable a card to be given if the tackle warrants it. Still, I also agree about the midfield version resulting in a foul. Part of me appreciates the inconsistency, though, because a penalty is so huge a punishment (and they decide too many matches).
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Rob Johns @robjohns75.bsky.social · 14/06/2026
But I know what you mean. Suggests a very consequentialist logic.
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Rob Johns @robjohns75.bsky.social · 14/06/2026
(Or was going out of play.)
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Rob Johns @robjohns75.bsky.social · 14/06/2026
But maybe not if it were a misplaced pass that had gone out of play.
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Tim Bale @timbale.bsky.social · 13/06/2026
"Why adopting Reform-lite rhetoric or intensifying enforcement measures rarely resolves the political problem for centre-left parties: the goalposts constantly move because the politics is not designed to produce resolution. It is designed to sustain a permanent sense of crisis and cultural threat."
blogs.lse.ac.uk
Why public attitudes to immigration don’t respond to falling migration | LSE British Politics
Migration numbers are falling, but attitudes towards immigration are hardening. That's because immigration concerns are a symbol for other anxieties.
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Rob Johns @robjohns75.bsky.social · 12/06/2026
Planning to design and analyse a survey despite not having taken a class like mine below on Designing & Analysing Surveys? You’re the social science equivalent of those people who need rescuing by helicopter from Snowdon having gone up in flip flops with only a light sweater and a bag of Maltesers.
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Miriam Sorace @miriamsorace.bsky.social · 11/06/2026
What happens when you ask an AI chatbot for political information? In experiments with ChatGPT, Grok, and DeepSeek, we show that even implicit demographic and ideological cues embedded in AI chats shape the news and frames users receive. Study here: osf.io/preprints/so... @zachdickson.bsky.social
osf.io
OSF
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