iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Robert Welz @robertwelz.bsky.social · 15/10/2026

Wout won Roubaix, Arsenal won the league, and I submitted and defended my thesis. A year for the believers.

Robert Welz @robertwelz.bsky.social · 15/10/2026

Last week, I successfully defended my PhD thesis on how citizens form coalition preferences! Many thanks to my committee, Sascha Huber, @kai-arzheimer.com, and @arminschaefer.bsky.social, and to my great colleagues at @powimz.bsky.social and beyond. Very happy!

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@AAllenSport @aallensport.arseblog.com · 03/09/2026

I have huge love for this man. He was a bright spark when we were in the trenches, scored some cracking (and important) goals and truly, madly, deeply loved The Arsenal. I fear you'll score against us one day, but until then, go enjoy those Saudi billions. ❤️

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Poorly Drawn Arsenal @poorlydrawnarsenal.com · 19/05/2026

I am calm I am calm I am calm I am calm I am calm I am calm I am calm I am calm I am calm I am calm I am calm I am calm I am calm I am calm I am calm I am calm I am calm I am calm I am calm I am calm I am calm I am calm I am calm I am calm

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Matthias @nairoingreen.bsky.social · 12/04/2026

I LOVE THIS BEAUTIFUL SPORT WOUT VAN AERT

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Joe Noonan @joenoonan.se · 11/11/2025

"final_draft_😂😂😂.docx"

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Hanning Voigts @hanvoi.bsky.social · 24/09/2025

„Das ist kleinliche Pedanterie, man möchte fast sagen: Ideologischer Wahn.“ Mein FR-Kommentar zu den Absurditäten des hessischen „Genderverbots“. (hanvoi) www.fr.de/rhein-main/l...

fr.de

„Genderverbot“ in Hessen: Das ist keine Realpolitik, das ist ideologischer Wahn

In Hessen wird eine Schule gezwungen, ihren Instagram-Account von Sonderzeichen zu säubern. Das „Genderverbot“ wird endgültig absurd. Ein Kommentar.

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Robert Welz @robertwelz.bsky.social · 23/06/2025

Together with @inert-emergence.bsky.social, and the bluesky-less Sascha Huber and Fabio Best

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Robert Welz @robertwelz.bsky.social · 23/06/2025

New paper in @prxjournal.bsky.social We conducted 4 experiments in Germany to examine how voters respond when opposition parties choose conflict or cooperation with the government. Findings: Cooperation tends to win more support 🔗 doi.org/10.1080/2474... #polisky

Screenshot of the abstract of the paper, which reads:
Opposition parties are central actors in accounts of democracies
(e.g. Dahl 1966). Prior research addressed issues such as
institutional factors to gauge the power wielded by opposition
parties, and how they affect opposition parties’ choices for
engaging in conflictual behaviour vis-à-vis the government or
opting for cooperative approaches. However, scant attention has
been devoted to understanding citizens’ views of such opposition
party behaviour. We aim to fill this gap by examining how
opposition parties’ choices of conflict or cooperation with the
government affect citizens’ evaluations of both opposition and
government parties. Our study centres on the case of Germany,
where the considerable institutional power vested in opposition
parties provides a framework for genuine choice between
cooperation and conflict. We use data from four large-scale
survey experiments in which we systematically manipulated
opposition party behaviour. These experiments were conducted
between 2020 and 2022, allowing us to study the effects of
opposition party behaviour in different contexts, including cases
of crisis, such as the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russian
invasion of Ukraine, and in the realm of more everyday politics.
Although mixed, the results suggest that cooperative opposition
party behaviour provides a promising, often overlooked avenue
for opposition parties to attract citizens.

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Sam @samlikeybikey.bsky.social · 31/05/2025

Be still my beating heart! #giro #thatdamnedsmile

That damn smile meme with Wout smiling as he picked up Yates

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Robert Welz @robertwelz.bsky.social · 31/05/2025

What a stage. I can’t remember anything like this. What a performance by Wout 👑 #giro

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Robert Welz @robertwelz.bsky.social · 03/05/2025

Deutscher wird‘s nicht mehr heute

Ein foto von einer Plakette. Darauf ist zu lesen: Es handelt sich nicht um ein Spielgerät im Sinne der DIN EN 1176. Der Betreiber muss sicherstellen, dass es nicht als Spielgerät genutzt wird.

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Christian Stecker @pluggedchris.bsky.social · 12/02/2025

Immer wieder wichtig daran zu erinnern, dass die AfD zwar viel (ostdeutsche) Landmasse blau einfärben kann, dahinter aber aufgrund der Bevölkerungsdichte viel weniger Menschen stehen als suggeriert wird - und vor allem keine echten 50%+x Mehrheiten, sondern um die 30%. www.dvpw.de/blog/die-mac...

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Igor Levit @igorpianist.bsky.social · 29/01/2025

29. Januar 2025 Der Tag beginnt im Bundestag damit, dass man der Shoah gedenkt und er endet damit, dass Nazis jubeln.

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Annika Brockschmidt @ardenthistorian.bsky.social · 23/12/2024

Thilo Mischke, 2021, im Gespräch mit der Journalistin Nadine Primo. Niemand hat’s so schwer wie Thilo, außer *checks notes*… „Adolf Hitler vielleicht“?!

Mischke: (14:40) „Jedenfalls muss ich elf Jahre nach erscheinen immer noch über dieses Buch reden, das haben nicht viele Autoren, die sich nach elf Jahren immer noch rechtfertigen müssen für ihr Buch.
Adolf Hitler vielleicht, der müsste sich für
"Mein Kampf" glaub ich immer noch rechtfertigen, wenn er noch leben würde." Primo: "Ja definitiv das wär mal spannend wenn er das tun würde."

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Robert Welz @robertwelz.bsky.social · 12/12/2024

🤯 pictures in connections! I was so excited that I had to do the first group before I could take the screenshot @nytimes.com

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Daniel 🕹️ @strengejacke.de · 29/11/2024

{ggeffects} version 2.0.0 is out now! Read more about this #rstats package at strengejacke.github.io/ggeffects What does {ggeffects} do? The 📦 helps you to understand (complex) models and results by calculating and plotting *estimated marginal means* or more generally, *adjusted predictions*. 🧵

strengejacke.github.io

Create Tidy Data Frames of Marginal Effects for ggplot from Model Outputs

Compute marginal effects and adjusted predictions from statistical models and returns the result as tidy data frames. These data frames are ready to use with the ggplot2-package. Effects and predictio...

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Robert Welz @robertwelz.bsky.social · 29/11/2024

Mittelschwere Krise in meinem intuitiven Verständnis der Pyramiden. Bei der FDP ist die Spitze der erste Schritt und das Fundament der letzte. So rum baut man doch keine Pyramide?

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Paul Quelle-horreur 👻🎃👻🎃 @paulkelleher.net · 25/11/2024

November 12, 1973 --- The day Philosophy & Public Affairs started treating Rawls like Jesus.

A letter on Philosophy & Public Affairs letterhead that reads:

November 12, 1973

Professor Robert Nozick
Department of Philosophy
Emerson Hall
Harvard University
Cambridge, Massachusetts 02138

Dear Professor Nozick,

I have been meaning to send you a note ever since you did not telephone the second time last week just to say that I decided after all to drop the offending post-apostrophes from the possessive of Rawls. This is, as I told you, according to the Chicago Manual of Style an honor due only to Moses and Jesus, but with us aesthetic considerations won out. The decision puts us somewhat in a class by ourselves -- I note that in Brian Barry's new book he and Oxford Press write Rawls's -- but I don't mind being different. I trust that you will not.

sincerely，
Margot Cutter

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Robert Welz @robertwelz.bsky.social · 21/11/2024

There is rStrava?! 🧡 Splendid

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Holger Reinermann @inert-emergence.bsky.social · 17/11/2024

What feeds do you have pinned that you think I am missing out on? Here are mine:

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Holger Reinermann @inert-emergence.bsky.social · 01/12/2023

Polisky, we were able to go open access with our article "Gone, but not forgotten? The German federal election 2021 and the effect of an incumbent who did not run". Download it as often as you like - and maybe cite it here and there 😉 www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

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Robert Welz @robertwelz.bsky.social · 11/11/2023

Wieso steht der Entschluss, u.a. an Unis Sprache festzuschreiben (sic!) unter Punkt 10 „Freiheit“? Und wie spät wurde das alles verfasst, dass das direkt hinter mündigen Bürger*innen und „Anreize statt Verbote“ und „Beteiligung statt Bevormundung“ steht?

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Robert Welz @robertwelz.bsky.social · 25/10/2023

Anyone with best practices for data analysis (mostly R) on an ipad? Some of our students no longer have laptops. PC labs (need to be on site) and remote desktop (usability on the tablet and connectivity) work (but rather suboptimally). Any experience with posit cloud in class maybe?

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Holger Reinermann @inert-emergence.bsky.social · 20/10/2023

Polisky! Fabio Best, Sascha Huber, @robertwelz.bsky.social and I have a thing in Electoral Studies. It's called "Gone, but not forgotten? The German federal election 2021 and the effect of an incumbent who did not run". Go get it for free until Dec 7: authors.elsevier.com/a/1hxskxRaZg...

authors.elsevier.com

Client Request ErrorScienceDirect

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Robert Welz @robertwelz.bsky.social · 20/10/2023

In our new article, we find: - Retiring incumbents (Merkel in 2021) can still play a role for vote intentions - This effect 'washes off' over the course of a campaign - Some of their popularity may 'rub off' on their successors if they manage to align themselves (which Laschet didn't)

sciencedirect.com

Gone, but not forgotten? The German federal election 2021 and the effect of an incumbent who did not...

The German federal election 2021 was remarkable partly because the incumbent chancellor Angela Merkel, albeit still popular, was not running for re-el…

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Robert Welz @robertwelz.bsky.social · 20/10/2023

So uhh … we’re obviously too punk-biased: I found out the other day that there is a country song with the same title. *Michael Scott cringe gif*

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Lukas Haffert @lhaffert.bsky.social · 20/10/2023

Zwei der wichtigsten Gegensätze bei den Wahlen in Hessen und Bayern: Stadt-Land und Jung-Alt. Wie @indubioproreto.bsky.social und ich in einer jetzt erschienenen Studie zeigen, sind diese Gegensätze eng verbunden: Der sprichwörtliche Stadt-Land-Graben trennt vor allem die Jungen 1/8

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Nils Steiner @nilssteiner.bsky.social · 16/10/2023

Very happy to see this polisky published: doi.org/10.1016/j.el...! I use age-period-cohort analysis with data from all 20 German federal elections (1949-2021) to answer 2 questions: 1. How has party support shifted across generations? 2. Has the effect of education on voting changed across gener.?

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