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Paul Maidowski

@ppmv.bsky.social
1.5K followers 1.5K following 899 posts

Systems analysis, climate policy. Fletcher School/Fulbright d|e|f|i|中 - Private opinions only

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Reposted by Paul Maidowski
Glen Peters @glenpeters.bsky.social · 10/06/2026
Global CO2 emissions have slowed down, therefore we expect atmospheric CO2 to be lower than if emissions continued to grow. I did a figure quite similar to @hausfath.bsky.social a while back & it is the same story (& similar numbers): www.theclimatebrink.com/p/plateauing... But, is it correct? 1/
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Rage Against the Miocene @organiccarbon.bsky.social · 12/06/2026
The science here is a great example of collaboration and persistence - not just by one group but collectively. But the scientific message is not so nice. We now have multiple studies that show how rapid global warming triggers positive feedbacks through enhanced methane production.
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Prof Ian Hall @ianhall.bsky.social · 23/05/2026
🌊 1960–2023: +2.06 mm/year 🌊 2005–2023: +3.94 mm/year What’s driving it? 43% thermal expansion 27% glacier melt 15% Greenland ice loss 12% Antarctica ice loss The biggest shift? We’re moving from ocean warming → to massive ice-sheet melt in Greenland & Antarctica. www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...
science.org
Improved closure of the global mean sea level budget from observational advances since 1960
Recent observational advances lead to a closure of trend and acceleration budgets across various time periods.
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Journal of Ecology @journalofecology.bsky.social · 21/07/2025
🔎Recent research highlights the complexity of newly assimilated C partitioning in moso bamboo forests and suggest that clonal integration may mitigate drought-induced dieback.🎍 Paper: buff.ly/dNBXPvv Blog: buff.ly/iZH1RxH
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Richard Waite @waiterich.bsky.social · 10/04/2026
Important. National GHG inventories call most lands “managed” and thus include huge amounts of CO2 removals from tree growth, resulting in net-negative emissions. Bookkeeping approach quantifies emissions and removals only directly linked to human activities, resulting in net-positive emissions.
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Peter Brannen @peterbrannen.bsky.social · 27/03/2026
Behold, the biggest point source of CO2 outside humanity, the volcanic system of Nyiragongo and Nyamuragira in the DRC, which emits an astonishing 16 thousand tons of CO2 a day (we emit over 100 million tons a day)
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Paul Maidowski @ppmv.bsky.social · 17/03/2026
Moorwiedervernässung im Häsener Luch, Landkreis Oberhavel in Brandenburg, und Hintergrund zum Aktionsprogramm Natürlicher Klimaschutz: www.tagesspiegel.de/wissen/wie-w...
tagesspiegel.de
Kampf um Feuchtgebiete: Ohne die Moore kann Deutschland seine Klimaziele nicht erreichen
Deutsche Wälder speichern erstmals seit Jahren wieder mehr Kohlenstoff, als sie ausstoßen. Doch die Vernässung der Moore, ein weiterer Schlüssel für die angestrebte Klimaneutralität, kommt kaum voran.
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Emily Pontecorvo @emilypont.bsky.social · 16/03/2026
A few years ago, @shannonosaka.bsky.social and I wrote about a fire that burned the largest forest carbon offset project in California. grist.org/climate/this... Now the project is officially dead. 🧵 1/3
bendbulletin.com
Warm Springs ends forest carbon project after wildfire damage; loss of $25 million - The Bulletin
A forest carbon sequestration project that once generated millions of dollars for the Confederated Tribes of Warm Springs has ended after wildfire tore through more than half of the enrolled […]
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Henry Mance @henrymance.ft.com · 16/03/2026
how would YOU open the Strait of Hormuz? Wrong answers only
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Kees van der Leun @sustainable2050.bsky.social · 06/03/2026
EU adopts -90% emission reduction target for 2040, and max 5% of that by 'high-quality international targets', i.e. reductions elsewhere. 14 years to go and a *lot* of work to be done!
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Jan Rosenow @janrosenow.bsky.social · 07/02/2026
🔥HOT OFF THE PRESS: Why the energy transition is disruptive, non-linear, hard to predict and often faster than expected. Our paper in Nature Reviews Clean Technology shows how feedback loops create virtuous and vicious cycles that can accelerate or block change. 🧵 www.nature.com/articles/s44...
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Daniel Huppmann @danielhuppmann.bsky.social · 02/02/2026
For a decade, the Shared Socioeconomics Pathways #SSP are used for scenario research related to climate change mitigation. Now, GDP & population projections were updated by @iiasa.ac.at & the team at the #OECD, and the #ScenarioServices team set up a new interactive app to explore the scenarios!
ssp.apps.ece.iiasa.ac.at
Shared Socioeconomic Pathways | Scenario Explorer hosted by IIASA
The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) are a set of scenarios that describe potential future developments in society, economics, and demographics until the end of the 21st century. This Explorer pre...
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Peter Brannen @peterbrannen.bsky.social · 02/02/2026
One of most mind-boggling things about climate change is how much faster it is than planet can accommodate. It takes ~1,000 years for deep water to mix with surface (as Scott Denning puts it "The deep water does not know we are here yet!"), and some Earth processes that remove CO2 take 100,000 years
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Peter Thorne @peterthorne.bsky.social · 28/01/2026
New discussion paper just dropped that’s taken shall we say a little work to get this far … essd.copernicus.org/preprints/es... please be kind. Not on an at all sensitive topic in the slightest.
essd.copernicus.org
How well can we quantify when 1.5 °C of global warming has been exceeded?
Abstract. Parties to the 2015 Paris Agreement agreed to limit the long-term increase in global average temperature to well below 2 °C and pursue efforts to keep temperatures below 1.5 °C relative to p...
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ArneJJ @arnejj.eurosky.social · 28/01/2026
diese NGO verteilt Solarmodule und Batterien in der Ukraine, damit Krankenhäuser und Menschen trotz des Krieges weiter Strom haben. Gute Sache, die man hier unterstützen kann: ukraine2power.org/en/#link-sol...
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Dr Tom Harris @drtomharris.bsky.social · 25/01/2026
Ancient pine trees growing in eastern Spain have quietly recorded more than five centuries of Mediterranean weather. Analysis of tree rings clearly shows that todays storms and droughts are becoming more intense and more frequent than almost anything the region has experienced since the early 1500s.
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Simon Evans @drsimevans.carbonbrief.org · 20/01/2026
If you think gas power is cheap, meet Keadby 2, the last CCGT gas plant built in Great Britain It opened in 2023, after 5yrs of development, at a cost of £350m Owner SSE says it would now cost 3.5x to build the same plant (~£1.2bn) 1/6
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Olivier Simard-Casanova @o.simardcasanova.net · 17/01/2026
Considering the significant tone shift of Renew, the socialists, and the EPP, it seems that Europe has entered a new political equilibrium that will lead to a more forceful response against the United States
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Glen Peters @glenpeters.bsky.social · 13/11/2025
Atmospheric CO2 concentration increased by a record-high 3.7 ppm in 2024, mainly due to the 2023/2024 El Nino conditions weakening the land sink. The 2025 projection is for a rise of 2.3 ppm, close to the decadal mean of 2.6 ppm, suggesting the land sink has returned to its pre-El Nino level. 12/
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Glen Peters @glenpeters.bsky.social · 13/11/2025
📢Global Carbon Budget 2025📢 Fossil CO2 emissions continue to rise in 2025 while the terrestrial carbon sink recovers to pre-El Niño strength. The key findings are covered in two reports this year: * ESSDD (preprint): essd.copernicus.org/preprints/es... * Nature: www.nature.com/articles/s41... 1/
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Michael Burchert @michaelburchert.bsky.social · 23/07/2025
Controversial! I've always argued that 5-story wooden buildings weren't anything special 100 yrs ago. In Germany, we've had to fight to make it happen again, so it leads to dispute. ...A few examples. Starting with 'Alter Bau'. Yes, it's just called 'Old Building'. www.geislingen.de/de/gaeste/ku...
8 storey half timbered building, first floor stone.
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Zack Labe @zacklabe.com · 10/01/2026
2025 was the hottest year on record for ocean heat content. Unfortunately, we now say this every year. 🥹 "In addition to setting a new record in 2025, the global ocean continues to show sustained and intensified warming." + #OpenAccess Study: doi.org/10.1007/s003... + Data: www.ocean.iap.ac.cn
Bar graph showing global ocean heat content change in the upper 2000 m from the late 1950s through 2025. There is a long-term warming in the time series, which is using IAP/CAS data.
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Tadzio Mueller @tadziomueller.bsky.social · 10/01/2026
Wochenendhörempfehlung: Starkes DLF-feature zur Politik und Zeit: wie geht die Gesellschaft mit der Hyperbeschleunigung durch den Kapitalismus um? Wie werden pol. Entscheidungen unter Zeitdruck getroffen? Und: ändert sich im #Kollaps die Zeitlichkeit von Politik fundamental?
deutschlandfunkkultur.de
Politik und Zeitdruck: Warum es neue Debattenformen braucht
Beschleunigung macht Politik kurzatmig, langfristige Entscheidungen fallen schwerer. Doch gegen den rasenden Stillstand könnte sie wieder handlungsfähig werden.
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Abe Newman @abenewman.bsky.social · 07/01/2026
5/This is part of what @segoddard.bsky.social and I have called a neo-royalist order. Elite cliques use economic and material interdependencies to bolster their power. Think elite interests (Trump and his inner circle) not national interests. www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
cambridge.org
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Ed Hawkins @edhawkins.org · 07/01/2026
Nullschool weather app for mobile phones...!
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Paul Maidowski @ppmv.bsky.social · 06/01/2026
„especially the rise of industry-scale storage units looks set to “fundamentally transform the functioning of Germany’s electricity system.” 👆
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Peter Brannen @peterbrannen.bsky.social · 05/01/2026
Made a pilgrimage to 2 ghosts of sea level past & future in Florida, from last time global temp was similar to today 120,000 years ago: an outcrop of oolite in Miami from when it was a sandy shoal under the waves, and in Windley Key a fossil coral reef that now ominously sits 20 feet above sea level
an outcrop of Miami oolite under an overpass in BrickellThe Windley Key Fossil Reef, an old limestone quarry that provides a cross-section of a coral reef from 120,000 years ago
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Julian Davis Mortenson @jdmortenson.bsky.social · 03/01/2026
For nonlawyers, it’s worth noting that statements like this have—as a formal matter—important legal effects as a matter of international law. If such statements are *not* made, and in volume, future arguments that Trump’s invasion sets a legal precedent will stand on much firmer legal ground.
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Peter Brannen @peterbrannen.bsky.social · 29/12/2025
"If we are going to go all in on a fossil fuel future in the U.S., it probably would be good to check if we have the fossil fuels to do that." Geology strikes back
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Glen Peters @glenpeters.bsky.social · 22/12/2025
Hydrogen does not directly warm the climate, but interacts with OH to extend the life of CH4. "More hydrogen means fewer detergents [OH] in the atmosphere, causing methane to persist longer &, therefore, warm the climate longer" phys.org/news/2025-12... Article: www.nature.com/articles/s41...
phys.org
Overlooked hydrogen emissions are heating Earth and supercharging methane, research finds
Rising global emissions of hydrogen over the past three decades have added to the planet's warming temperatures and amplified the impact of methane, one of the most potent greenhouse gases, according ...
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WHO @who.int · 25/12/2025
✅ May 2025: Landmark adoption of the #PandemicAgreement. Countries adopted the first Pandemic Agreement at the 78th World Health Assembly. The agreement fosters international collaboration and commits to ensuring more equitable access to vaccines, medicines, and diagnostics.
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Andreas Loeschel @andreasloeschel.bsky.social · 23/12/2025
Im Auftrag des Umweltbundesamtes UBA haben haben wir mit GWS und E3-Modelling internationale Wechselwirkungen zwischen EU-ETS und einem CO2-Grenzausgleichssystem (CBAM) analysiert (inkl. Paper zu CO2 Preisen in IAMs). Die Ergebnisse sind jetzt öffentlich. www.gws-os.com/de/die-gws/n...
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Bezirksamt Mitte @ba-mitte-berlin.bsky.social · 20/12/2025
Dein Klick zählt: Schrottfahrräder über Ordnungsamt Online melden! 🚲📲 Über 700 Räder wurden in Mitte schon entfernt – gemeinsam schaffen wir Platz, mehr Sicherheit und barrierefreie Wege. Entdeckt ihr ein Schrottrad? Einfach über melden und mithelfen!➡️ sohub.io/3j1x
Bild eines mit Pflanzen zugewucherten Fahrrads. Text: Melde Schrotträder mit "Ordnungsamt Online". #mittemachtsauber. Unten rechts befindet sich das Logo des BA Mitte-Bären mit einem Besen in der Hand.
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Ben Williamson @benpatrickwill.bsky.social · 19/12/2025
Closing out my year with a journal editor shocker 🧵 Checking new manuscripts today I reviewed a paper attributing 2 papers to me I did not write. A daft thing for an author to do of course. But intrigued I web searched up one of the titles and that's when it got real weird...
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Pep Canadell @pepcanadell.bsky.social · 18/12/2025
The Global Carbon Project has just published the most comprehensive Global Hydrogen Budget to date. H2, although not a GHG, has an indirect Global Warming Potential 37 times more potent than CO2. Carbon Brief: www.carbonbrief.org/hydrogen-emi... Research paper: www.nature.com/articles/s41...
carbonbrief.org
Hydrogen emissions are ‘supercharging’ the warming impact of methane - Carbon Brief
The warming impact of hydrogen has been “overlooked” in projections of climate change, authors of the latest “global hydrogen budget” say.
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Paul Maidowski @ppmv.bsky.social · 19/12/2025
Hansen predicts global temperature will reach a record +1.7°C in 2027. In addition to Earth’s heating rate of 0.2°C per decade, this implies an acceleration by 0.1°C per decade since 2016, likely from (“one-time only”) aerosol effects, ie shift to cleaner and less fuels. mailchi.mp/caa/global-t...
Fig. 5
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ArneJJ @arnejj.eurosky.social · 19/12/2025
Die erneuerbaren Energien sind der Durchbruch des Jahres laut Science Magazine: Wind und Solar wachsen in noch nie erreichtem Tempo. 2025 war das erste Jahr, in dem weltweit mehr Strom aus erneuerbaren Energien als aus Kohle erzeugt wurde.
science.org
Science’s 2025 Breakthrough of the Year: The unstoppable rise of renewable energy
Clean energy infrastructure is being deployed with unmatched scale and speed—and China is leading the way
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Franck Ghomsi @franckghomsi.bsky.social · 16/12/2025
🚨 Our new paper is out! First study focusing on African sea level rise from 1993 to present 🌊🌍 Sea levels accelerated 4.5× since the 1990s, from 0.96 to 4.34 mm/yr. 2023 broke records across 40% of African waters. Thread ⬇️ 📖 doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02965-z
doi.org
Accelerating sea level rise in Africa and its large marine ecosystems since the 1990s - Communications Earth & Environment
Sea-level rise in African large marine ecosystem has accelerated markedly since 2010, mostly due to ice sheet loss and land subsidence, with the Red Sea and Guinea Current rising fastest, according to...
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Paul Maidowski @ppmv.bsky.social · 15/12/2025
「Progress」out—looking intriguing and challenging, by @smillermcdonald.bsky.social. Much looking forward to reading a solid social science framework, which most literature on climate policy lacks, that aims to develop possible alternatives to the idea of progress. bookshop.org/p/books/prog...
bookshop.org
Progress: How One Idea Built Civilization and Now Threatens to Destroy It
How One Idea Built Civilization and Now Threatens to Destroy It
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Ryan Katz-Rosene, PhD @ryankatzrosene.bsky.social · 08/12/2025
As this chart (from IPCC AR6 technical summary) shows, global temperature increase has closely tracked cumulative CO2 emissions. As of 2024 the world has emitted about 2750 Gt CO2.
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Paul Maidowski @ppmv.bsky.social · 06/12/2025
Several large solar PV and battery projects are being planned in Brandenburg. How do utilities wish to make the economics of fossil power plants work going forward? www.rbb24.de/content/rbb/...
rbb24.de
Solarpark und Batteriespeicher auf ehemaligem Militärflugplatz in Schacksdorf geplant
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Kai Kupferschmidt @kakape.bsky.social · 05/12/2025
“Today is a defining moment for our country,” @mtosterholm.bsky.social, a public health expert at the University of Minnesota, said. “We can no longer trust federal health authorities when it comes to vaccines.” 🧪 #giftlink www.nytimes.com/2025/12/05/h...
nytimes.com
Panel Votes to End Recommendation for Hepatitis B Shots for All Newborns
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David Ho @davidho.bsky.social · 05/12/2025
Our infrastructure isn’t ready for what’s coming.
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Glen Peters @glenpeters.bsky.social · 25/11/2025
The biggest misunderstanding of Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR), IMHO, is that many assume it is a replacement for emissions reductions. As in, more CDR, less emission reductions. No. Emissions need to go down as fast as possible, even faster, no matter how much (~feasible) CDR you have. 2/
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Australian Centre for Excellence in Antarctic Science (ACEAS) @antarcticsciaus.bsky.social · 02/12/2025
New research published today in @nature.com shows the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) – the Southern Hemisphere’s most influential climate driver – has reached its most positive state in more than a millennium. Read the Nature paper: www.nature.com/articles/s43...
nature.com
Southern Annular Mode dynamics, projections and impacts in a changing climate - Nature Reviews Earth & Environment
The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) has shifted towards its positive phase owing to ozone depletion and increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. This Review discusses the dynamics, trends and projections...
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Mike Honey @mikehoney.bsky.social · 29/11/2025
For Europe (excluding the UK), BA.3.2.* is holding a strong growth advantage of 4.6% per day (32% per week) over XFG.* "Stratus". At that pace, any crossover looks to be around the holiday season. 🧵
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Brian Merchant @bcmerchant.bsky.social · 27/11/2025
Usually I'd encourage you to find another place to buy the book, but Amazon is selling the BLOOD IN THE MACHINE ebook for $2.99 at what is certainly a loss, so by all means, get a copy for cheap www.amazon.com/Blood-Machin...
amazon.com
Blood in the Machine: The Origins of the Rebellion Against Big Tech
The most urgent story in modern tech begins not in Silicon Valley but two hundred years ago in rural England, when workers known as the Luddites rose up rather than starve at the hands of factory owne...
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Costa Samaras @costasamaras.com · 27/11/2025
PJM is the regional grid serving 67 million customers in 13 states
Map of the PJM regional grid territory which is most of the U.S. mid-atlantic and also parts of the midwest https://www.pjm.com/-/media/DotCom/about-pjm/newsroom/fact-sheets/pjm-at-a-glance.pdf
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Dirk Paessler @dpaessler.bsky.social · 25/11/2025
It’s Not Just the Rock—It’s the Soil (And it holds on tight) -- Our latest greenhouse study with data from our greenhouse experiments is now available on EGUSphere as a pre-print.
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