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Paul Maidowski

@ppmv.bsky.social
1.5K followers 1.5K following 899 posts

Systems analysis, climate policy. Fletcher School/Fulbright d|e|f|i|中 - Private opinions only

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Paul Maidowski @ppmv.bsky.social · 19/12/2025
Hansen predicts global temperature will reach a record +1.7°C in 2027. In addition to Earth’s heating rate of 0.2°C per decade, this implies an acceleration by 0.1°C per decade since 2016, likely from (“one-time only”) aerosol effects, ie shift to cleaner and less fuels. mailchi.mp/caa/global-t...
Fig. 5
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Paul Maidowski @ppmv.bsky.social · 18/09/2025
We looked at the data and said so nine years ago. Not “hysterical,” on the contrary. Welcome to what climate change really means
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Paul Maidowski @ppmv.bsky.social · 15/09/2025
No, again. 425.83 ppm is the current global CO2 value (observation June 2025), and 426 ppm for the current "daily trend" estimate that's calculated statistically. gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/...
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Paul Maidowski @ppmv.bsky.social · 15/09/2025
I don't know where you have your estimates from but they're wrong. SSP5-8.5 assumes 432 ppm CO2 in 2025 - we're at 425. It assumes 1135 ppm by 2100, a rate of 9.5 ppm/year (!), roughly 3-4 times the current rate. Perhaps not impossible but very unlikely without major change. bsky.app/profile/nonv...
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Paul Maidowski @ppmv.bsky.social · 13/09/2025
The acceleration of sea level rise seems to ease somewhat. SLR rises at a rate of 4 mm/year, accelerating by 0.10 instead of 0.11 mm/year^2 for now. Do we know why? changing precipitation patterns? www.aviso.altimetry.fr/fileadmin/im...
SLR graph 1992-2025
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Paul Maidowski @ppmv.bsky.social · 17/07/2025
Fair! bluesky hat minimalen hashtag-support. Macht in der Suche-Funktion keinen Unterschied, aber Sie können etwa Kunst- oder zusammengesetzte Worte wie #Koalitionsvertrag hashtaggen und so ein suchbares Archiv zu Ihrem Account machen. Sonst erscheint halt nur dieses Feld, vielleicht auch gut
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Paul Maidowski @ppmv.bsky.social · 13/07/2025
By definition it’s a positive feedback (negative feedback would counteract and slow the initial trigger ;). Great article, thanks Bob
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Paul Maidowski @ppmv.bsky.social · 13/06/2025
This paper argues the AMOC has been in a bifurcation state since before 1854, passing a rate-induced tipping point in the 1970s. It may shift towards its weak-state attractor over the coming decades, thus a rapid transition cannot be excluded. ht @rahmstorf.bsky.social www.nature.com/articles/s41...
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Paul Maidowski @ppmv.bsky.social · 12/05/2025
☝️
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Paul Maidowski @ppmv.bsky.social · 06/05/2025
Global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 426.13 in February 2025, 3.32 ppm higher than a year ago. At this rate it will exceed 450 ppm in the early 2030s. This reverses the Earth system’s cooling trend of the past 16 million years, since the Miocene climate optimum gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/...
https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/global.html
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Paul Maidowski @ppmv.bsky.social · 14/04/2025
5. Frank O. Bastian developed a bovine coronavirus (CoV) vaccine that is not available for humans because our immune systems differ, causing any immunity acquired to be only temporary. bsky.app/profile/real...
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frank_O._Bastian
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Paul Maidowski @ppmv.bsky.social · 14/04/2025
3. "The prion hypothesis was put forth by Stanley Prusiner, who won the 1997 Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine." MDs need to remember the current prion hypothesis is exactly that—an unproven hypothesis. NDD & prion disease discussions tend to assume too much. www.newscientist.com/article/mg15...
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Paul Maidowski @ppmv.bsky.social · 14/04/2025
2. Good advice, especially in these anti-science days
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Paul Maidowski @ppmv.bsky.social · 14/04/2025
1. SARS-CoV (-1/-2) and prion disease (PrD): Will do a thread once I scrape my chin off the floor. Dr. Laura Manuelidis starts high and goes hard sentence for sentence. The current mainstream view essentially defies basic laws of science. Prion science is wild and contentious doi.org/10.1080/2150...
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Paul Maidowski @ppmv.bsky.social · 10/04/2025
The growth rate of global CO2 concentration for 2024 should be published in the next week. It will be the largest increase in recorded history, for the first time more than 3 ppm per year. These questions truly matter, even if few pay attention. So far - Have fun everyone, x.com/nephologue/s...
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Paul Maidowski @ppmv.bsky.social · 10/04/2025
"All models are wrong, but some are useful: reflections on becoming a systems scientist" - Great 2002 talk by John Sterman for our era. We use different models - CAT @climateanalytics.org etc. - in policy advice. In climate they are more robust than in most fields. Still, web.mit.edu/jsterman/www...
"Becoming an effective systems thinker also requires the rigorous and disciplined use of scientific inquiry skills so that we can uncover our hidden assumptions and biases. It requires respect and empathy for others and other viewpoints."
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Paul Maidowski @ppmv.bsky.social · 10/04/2025
If you work on climate, you've seen or used climate action tracker and similar tools based on IAMs. Is it plausible that we can tell 2100 warming to a decimal point? Can policy X move estimates? Within years? In IAMs yes. In the physical world, quite unlikely climateactiontracker.org/publications...
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Paul Maidowski @ppmv.bsky.social · 18/03/2025
Accusing an environmental agency of being precautionary and outcome-driven must be the funniest compliment possible. Yes that’s what makes a good agency (gift link) www.nytimes.com/2025/03/17/c...
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Paul Maidowski @ppmv.bsky.social · 16/03/2025
Global atmospheric CO2 increased by 3.68 ppm in Dec 2024 relative to 2023. It's accelerating. Current policy doesn't even try to reverse that. gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/...
https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/global.html
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Paul Maidowski @ppmv.bsky.social · 06/03/2025
Today is global monthly CO2 trend day, let's see what record the 2024 rate of change set..,, never mind, gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/...
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Paul Maidowski @ppmv.bsky.social · 21/02/2025
Liebe Journalisten, bitte lernt den Unterschied zwischen Energiequellen und Energieträgern (=speicher). Wasserstoff ist ein Speicher, keine Energiequelle.
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Paul Maidowski @ppmv.bsky.social · 19/02/2025
The world's most important number isn't global GDP, a human and somewhat flawed construct, but global atmospheric CO2 concentrations. 2024 was likely the fastest increase in recent history, >3 ppm CO2/year. Nothing a sharpie can't fix of course gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/...
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Paul Maidowski @ppmv.bsky.social · 19/02/2025
Recommendation: just block this type of inauthentic (bot/sockpuppet) account. ("divorced, with "a couple of kids," and zero posts") At some point they switch identity and then are used for nefarious purposes.
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Paul Maidowski @ppmv.bsky.social · 15/02/2025
Global sea level is rising at a rate of 4.1 mm/year, accelerating at 0.1 mm/year^2. Link: www.aviso.altimetry.fr/fileadmin/im...
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Paul Maidowski @ppmv.bsky.social · 03/02/2025
Excellent Thwaites glacier thread. Here the Rignot et al. 2024 outlook to remove the widespread speculation: Thwaites is currently retreating slowly on a prograde seabed; it may take 10–20 years for fast retreat to start, once past Ridge South. www.pnas.org/doi/abs/10.1... bsky.app/profile/pola...
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Paul Maidowski @ppmv.bsky.social · 30/01/2025
Haha 🤣 Michael Mann blocking climate activists and scientists, and removing urgently needed tolerance for subtlety and deep uncertainty from climate discourses through his bullying tactics is its own minor paragraph in the history of climate struggles by now.
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Paul Maidowski @ppmv.bsky.social · 30/01/2025
😂
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Paul Maidowski @ppmv.bsky.social · 26/01/2025
Also here: @profstevekeen.bsky.social The Nobel Prize lecture shows 4°C warming as 'optimal'.- A point I saw no one mention is Nordhaus used electricity sector models to design his climate model—a terrible choice because electricity and carbon are not at all alike. www.nobelprize.org/prizes/econo...
DICE model showing 4°C warming by 2150 as 'optimal'
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Paul Maidowski @ppmv.bsky.social · 25/01/2025
Das entscheidende Detail ist hier versteckt. Niemand hat je die anderen internationalen Institute mit aktiven SARS-CoV-1 Forschungsprogrammen außerhalb Chinas gefragt, nachzuweisen, dass das Virus nicht von ihnen kam. Solange das nicht passiert, wird sich der Ursprung nicht klären lassen.
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Paul Maidowski @ppmv.bsky.social · 25/01/2025
Just a few more iterations and this can be built from sustainable materials too ☺️
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Paul Maidowski @ppmv.bsky.social · 19/01/2025
6. Here 1 m sea level rise from Antarctica for the (1) world, (2) Dutch/German coast Atlantic coast, (3) Tianjin, (4) Shanghai-Guangzhou Pacific coast. If the world's future cities aren't primarily (re)built from bamboo, we'll get severe climate problems. coastal.climatecentral.org/map/7/117.86...
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Paul Maidowski @ppmv.bsky.social · 19/01/2025
5. The shifting grounding zone causes sea level rise (SLR) (red line in the satellite picture). What happens on the surface doesn't matter as much. This is always good to share because counterintuitive. Understanding mechanisms matters. www.aviso.altimetry.fr/fileadmin/im... bsky.app/profile/ppmv...
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Paul Maidowski @ppmv.bsky.social · 18/01/2025
3. The Thwaites eastern ice shelf (TEIS) is in its end stage, now unmoored from its pinning point. Remarkably, it's not driven by basal melt, as one would tend to assume, but by unstoppable ice-shelf disintegration aka mechanical failure. www.cambridge.org/core/journal... bsky.app/profile/ppmv...
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Paul Maidowski @ppmv.bsky.social · 18/01/2025
1. Thwaites eastern ice shelf (TEIS) in 2011 vs Jan 2025. This may fracture in the coming years and accelerate the glacier tc.copernicus.org/articles/16/... www.polarview.aq/antarctic
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Paul Maidowski @ppmv.bsky.social · 17/01/2025
So I deleted this because it doesn't seem to have bothered anyone yet (?), but anyway - why are rows 1-3 and 4 in different order? One or the other may need to switch unit 1 for unit 2, if I'm not mistaken
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Paul Maidowski @ppmv.bsky.social · 09/01/2025
Any experience with alternative search engines? Google is increasingly useless for anything but shopping 😆
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Paul Maidowski @ppmv.bsky.social · 09/01/2025
What if climate dismissal and denial are not unfortunate dysfunctions to solve but vital signals of the functioning for now of our institutions? If so, no # of IPCC reports will overcome them. Uncomfortable knowledge & socially constructed ignorance: Rayner 2012 www.andreasaltelli.eu/file/reposit...
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Paul Maidowski @ppmv.bsky.social · 06/01/2025
Monthly data 👇; another two months for NOAA’s annual data. 2024 will be the first year in which atmospheric CO2 increases by more than 3 ppm. Congrats on the histoic achievement everyone gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/...
https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/gl_gr.html
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Paul Maidowski @ppmv.bsky.social · 31/12/2024
Bamboo field in Germany
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Paul Maidowski @ppmv.bsky.social · 27/12/2024
👇
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Paul Maidowski @ppmv.bsky.social · 21/12/2024
Happy new year everyone
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Paul Maidowski @ppmv.bsky.social · 20/12/2024
5. Most, or all 16, models don't resolve the atmospheric circulation changes well, notably how the changing height of the Antarctic ice sheet affects global climate. Highly relevant Pliocene study, though I seem to be the only one sharing it cp.copernicus.org/articles/19/... bsky.app/profile/rahm...
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Paul Maidowski @ppmv.bsky.social · 19/12/2024
Roughly a 50:50 chance of 2.0°C warming by the late 2030s, once Eliot redoes his numbers. To put it positively, the outlook for growing temperate woody bamboo species in Europe is splendid www.youtube.com/watch?v=wB1m...
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Paul Maidowski @ppmv.bsky.social · 19/12/2024
Nice encapsulation of the state of climate, @climatecasino.net MEER. As I've been saying for some 7 years, the Paris Agreement was never intended to be enforceable. You can see so easily: no dispute settlement mechanism is created, unlike every single trade agreement. www.youtube.com/watch?v=wB1m...
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Paul Maidowski @ppmv.bsky.social · 18/12/2024
Rather ambitious, timely analysis (proposed). If I may say so, here's how to make a real difference in terms of human development and future climate change 🤷‍♂️🤷🏻‍♀️
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Paul Maidowski @ppmv.bsky.social · 18/12/2024
How it started, how it’s going Reminder, renewables are great, just not replacing fossil fuels at global scale, so they add energy generation and may well end up adding GHG emissions. Simple systems problem, but seemingly counterintuitive to many
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Paul Maidowski @ppmv.bsky.social · 17/12/2024
For what it's worth, bamboos typically grow amidst other trees. You actually have to look closely to even notice them when passing by. Moso bamboo forest pics from Japan, Taiwan, China dominate public perception because they're photogenic, but that's just one species. terralingua.org/langscape_ar...
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Paul Maidowski @ppmv.bsky.social · 16/12/2024
Draft, but if you want Glen, @bobkopp.net, one example of what I’d consider a physical and social tipping point (=impact would be measurable in atm CO2). Growing millions of ha of bamboo (as agroforestry, providing biodiversity, jobs etc.), to sequester carbon at GtC scale in the built environment
Global carbon cycle from GCP, data FAO, Marchi 2023. Own illustration
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Paul Maidowski @ppmv.bsky.social · 13/12/2024
I discourage climate sensationalism - some focus on extremes in daily time series, including daily CO2, and their statistical properties - because it's subject to confirmation bias. YET monthly CO2 is valid. An annual increase of 3.16 ppm CO2 in Sept 2024 is bad. 👀 gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/...
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Paul Maidowski @ppmv.bsky.social · 05/12/2024
Great research. Kind note to scientists who gracefully do science communications: do a little thread, even just 2-3 tweets. Readers need to know what they should open that link 😉
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