Paul Maidowski @ppmv.bsky.social · 19/12/2025Hansen predicts global temperature will reach a record +1.7°C in 2027. In addition to Earth’s heating rate of 0.2°C per decade, this implies an acceleration by 0.1°C per decade since 2016, likely from (“one-time only”) aerosol effects, ie shift to cleaner and less fuels. mailchi.mp/caa/global-t... 153
Paul Maidowski @ppmv.bsky.social · 18/09/2025We looked at the data and said so nine years ago. Not “hysterical,” on the contrary. Welcome to what climate change really means 03920
Paul Maidowski @ppmv.bsky.social · 15/09/2025No, again. 425.83 ppm is the current global CO2 value (observation June 2025), and 426 ppm for the current "daily trend" estimate that's calculated statistically. gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/... 010
Paul Maidowski @ppmv.bsky.social · 15/09/2025I don't know where you have your estimates from but they're wrong. SSP5-8.5 assumes 432 ppm CO2 in 2025 - we're at 425. It assumes 1135 ppm by 2100, a rate of 9.5 ppm/year (!), roughly 3-4 times the current rate. Perhaps not impossible but very unlikely without major change. bsky.app/profile/nonv... 000
Paul Maidowski @ppmv.bsky.social · 13/09/2025The acceleration of sea level rise seems to ease somewhat. SLR rises at a rate of 4 mm/year, accelerating by 0.10 instead of 0.11 mm/year^2 for now. Do we know why? changing precipitation patterns? www.aviso.altimetry.fr/fileadmin/im... 171
Paul Maidowski @ppmv.bsky.social · 17/07/2025Fair! bluesky hat minimalen hashtag-support. Macht in der Suche-Funktion keinen Unterschied, aber Sie können etwa Kunst- oder zusammengesetzte Worte wie #Koalitionsvertrag hashtaggen und so ein suchbares Archiv zu Ihrem Account machen. Sonst erscheint halt nur dieses Feld, vielleicht auch gut 010
Paul Maidowski @ppmv.bsky.social · 13/07/2025 By definition it’s a positive feedback (negative feedback would counteract and slow the initial trigger ;). Great article, thanks Bob 000
Paul Maidowski @ppmv.bsky.social · 13/06/2025This paper argues the AMOC has been in a bifurcation state since before 1854, passing a rate-induced tipping point in the 1970s. It may shift towards its weak-state attractor over the coming decades, thus a rapid transition cannot be excluded. ht @rahmstorf.bsky.social www.nature.com/articles/s41... 020
Paul Maidowski @ppmv.bsky.social · 06/05/2025Global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 426.13 in February 2025, 3.32 ppm higher than a year ago. At this rate it will exceed 450 ppm in the early 2030s. This reverses the Earth system’s cooling trend of the past 16 million years, since the Miocene climate optimum gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/... 4143
Paul Maidowski @ppmv.bsky.social · 14/04/20255. Frank O. Bastian developed a bovine coronavirus (CoV) vaccine that is not available for humans because our immune systems differ, causing any immunity acquired to be only temporary. bsky.app/profile/real... 031
Paul Maidowski @ppmv.bsky.social · 14/04/20253. "The prion hypothesis was put forth by Stanley Prusiner, who won the 1997 Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine." MDs need to remember the current prion hypothesis is exactly that—an unproven hypothesis. NDD & prion disease discussions tend to assume too much. www.newscientist.com/article/mg15... 140
Paul Maidowski @ppmv.bsky.social · 14/04/20252. Good advice, especially in these anti-science days 141
Paul Maidowski @ppmv.bsky.social · 14/04/20251. SARS-CoV (-1/-2) and prion disease (PrD): Will do a thread once I scrape my chin off the floor. Dr. Laura Manuelidis starts high and goes hard sentence for sentence. The current mainstream view essentially defies basic laws of science. Prion science is wild and contentious doi.org/10.1080/2150... 185
Paul Maidowski @ppmv.bsky.social · 10/04/2025The growth rate of global CO2 concentration for 2024 should be published in the next week. It will be the largest increase in recorded history, for the first time more than 3 ppm per year. These questions truly matter, even if few pay attention. So far - Have fun everyone, x.com/nephologue/s... 101
Paul Maidowski @ppmv.bsky.social · 10/04/2025"All models are wrong, but some are useful: reflections on becoming a systems scientist" - Great 2002 talk by John Sterman for our era. We use different models - CAT @climateanalytics.org etc. - in policy advice. In climate they are more robust than in most fields. Still, web.mit.edu/jsterman/www... 100
Paul Maidowski @ppmv.bsky.social · 10/04/2025If you work on climate, you've seen or used climate action tracker and similar tools based on IAMs. Is it plausible that we can tell 2100 warming to a decimal point? Can policy X move estimates? Within years? In IAMs yes. In the physical world, quite unlikely climateactiontracker.org/publications... 110
Paul Maidowski @ppmv.bsky.social · 18/03/2025Accusing an environmental agency of being precautionary and outcome-driven must be the funniest compliment possible. Yes that’s what makes a good agency (gift link) www.nytimes.com/2025/03/17/c... 030
Paul Maidowski @ppmv.bsky.social · 16/03/2025Global atmospheric CO2 increased by 3.68 ppm in Dec 2024 relative to 2023. It's accelerating. Current policy doesn't even try to reverse that. gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/... 0175
Paul Maidowski @ppmv.bsky.social · 06/03/2025Today is global monthly CO2 trend day, let's see what record the 2024 rate of change set..,, never mind, gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/... 030
Paul Maidowski @ppmv.bsky.social · 21/02/2025Liebe Journalisten, bitte lernt den Unterschied zwischen Energiequellen und Energieträgern (=speicher). Wasserstoff ist ein Speicher, keine Energiequelle. 100
Paul Maidowski @ppmv.bsky.social · 19/02/2025The world's most important number isn't global GDP, a human and somewhat flawed construct, but global atmospheric CO2 concentrations. 2024 was likely the fastest increase in recent history, >3 ppm CO2/year. Nothing a sharpie can't fix of course gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/... 042
Paul Maidowski @ppmv.bsky.social · 19/02/2025Recommendation: just block this type of inauthentic (bot/sockpuppet) account. ("divorced, with "a couple of kids," and zero posts") At some point they switch identity and then are used for nefarious purposes. 010
Paul Maidowski @ppmv.bsky.social · 15/02/2025Global sea level is rising at a rate of 4.1 mm/year, accelerating at 0.1 mm/year^2. Link: www.aviso.altimetry.fr/fileadmin/im... 030
Paul Maidowski @ppmv.bsky.social · 03/02/2025Excellent Thwaites glacier thread. Here the Rignot et al. 2024 outlook to remove the widespread speculation: Thwaites is currently retreating slowly on a prograde seabed; it may take 10–20 years for fast retreat to start, once past Ridge South. www.pnas.org/doi/abs/10.1... bsky.app/profile/pola... 220
Paul Maidowski @ppmv.bsky.social · 30/01/2025Haha 🤣 Michael Mann blocking climate activists and scientists, and removing urgently needed tolerance for subtlety and deep uncertainty from climate discourses through his bullying tactics is its own minor paragraph in the history of climate struggles by now. 140
Paul Maidowski @ppmv.bsky.social · 26/01/2025Also here: @profstevekeen.bsky.social The Nobel Prize lecture shows 4°C warming as 'optimal'.- A point I saw no one mention is Nordhaus used electricity sector models to design his climate model—a terrible choice because electricity and carbon are not at all alike. www.nobelprize.org/prizes/econo... 183
Paul Maidowski @ppmv.bsky.social · 25/01/2025Das entscheidende Detail ist hier versteckt. Niemand hat je die anderen internationalen Institute mit aktiven SARS-CoV-1 Forschungsprogrammen außerhalb Chinas gefragt, nachzuweisen, dass das Virus nicht von ihnen kam. Solange das nicht passiert, wird sich der Ursprung nicht klären lassen. 000
Paul Maidowski @ppmv.bsky.social · 25/01/2025Just a few more iterations and this can be built from sustainable materials too ☺️ 010
Paul Maidowski @ppmv.bsky.social · 19/01/20256. Here 1 m sea level rise from Antarctica for the (1) world, (2) Dutch/German coast Atlantic coast, (3) Tianjin, (4) Shanghai-Guangzhou Pacific coast. If the world's future cities aren't primarily (re)built from bamboo, we'll get severe climate problems. coastal.climatecentral.org/map/7/117.86... 100
Paul Maidowski @ppmv.bsky.social · 19/01/20255. The shifting grounding zone causes sea level rise (SLR) (red line in the satellite picture). What happens on the surface doesn't matter as much. This is always good to share because counterintuitive. Understanding mechanisms matters. www.aviso.altimetry.fr/fileadmin/im... bsky.app/profile/ppmv... 100
Paul Maidowski @ppmv.bsky.social · 18/01/20253. The Thwaites eastern ice shelf (TEIS) is in its end stage, now unmoored from its pinning point. Remarkably, it's not driven by basal melt, as one would tend to assume, but by unstoppable ice-shelf disintegration aka mechanical failure. www.cambridge.org/core/journal... bsky.app/profile/ppmv... 230
Paul Maidowski @ppmv.bsky.social · 18/01/20251. Thwaites eastern ice shelf (TEIS) in 2011 vs Jan 2025. This may fracture in the coming years and accelerate the glacier tc.copernicus.org/articles/16/... www.polarview.aq/antarctic 275
Paul Maidowski @ppmv.bsky.social · 17/01/2025So I deleted this because it doesn't seem to have bothered anyone yet (?), but anyway - why are rows 1-3 and 4 in different order? One or the other may need to switch unit 1 for unit 2, if I'm not mistaken 100
Paul Maidowski @ppmv.bsky.social · 09/01/2025Any experience with alternative search engines? Google is increasingly useless for anything but shopping 😆 320
Paul Maidowski @ppmv.bsky.social · 09/01/2025What if climate dismissal and denial are not unfortunate dysfunctions to solve but vital signals of the functioning for now of our institutions? If so, no # of IPCC reports will overcome them. Uncomfortable knowledge & socially constructed ignorance: Rayner 2012 www.andreasaltelli.eu/file/reposit... 120
Paul Maidowski @ppmv.bsky.social · 06/01/2025Monthly data 👇; another two months for NOAA’s annual data. 2024 will be the first year in which atmospheric CO2 increases by more than 3 ppm. Congrats on the histoic achievement everyone gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/... 33514
Paul Maidowski @ppmv.bsky.social · 20/12/20245. Most, or all 16, models don't resolve the atmospheric circulation changes well, notably how the changing height of the Antarctic ice sheet affects global climate. Highly relevant Pliocene study, though I seem to be the only one sharing it cp.copernicus.org/articles/19/... bsky.app/profile/rahm... 131
Paul Maidowski @ppmv.bsky.social · 19/12/2024Roughly a 50:50 chance of 2.0°C warming by the late 2030s, once Eliot redoes his numbers. To put it positively, the outlook for growing temperate woody bamboo species in Europe is splendid www.youtube.com/watch?v=wB1m... 030
Paul Maidowski @ppmv.bsky.social · 19/12/2024Nice encapsulation of the state of climate, @climatecasino.net MEER. As I've been saying for some 7 years, the Paris Agreement was never intended to be enforceable. You can see so easily: no dispute settlement mechanism is created, unlike every single trade agreement. www.youtube.com/watch?v=wB1m... 120
Paul Maidowski @ppmv.bsky.social · 18/12/2024Rather ambitious, timely analysis (proposed). If I may say so, here's how to make a real difference in terms of human development and future climate change 🤷♂️🤷🏻♀️ 030
Paul Maidowski @ppmv.bsky.social · 18/12/2024How it started, how it’s going Reminder, renewables are great, just not replacing fossil fuels at global scale, so they add energy generation and may well end up adding GHG emissions. Simple systems problem, but seemingly counterintuitive to many 020
Paul Maidowski @ppmv.bsky.social · 17/12/2024For what it's worth, bamboos typically grow amidst other trees. You actually have to look closely to even notice them when passing by. Moso bamboo forest pics from Japan, Taiwan, China dominate public perception because they're photogenic, but that's just one species. terralingua.org/langscape_ar... 130
Paul Maidowski @ppmv.bsky.social · 16/12/2024Draft, but if you want Glen, @bobkopp.net, one example of what I’d consider a physical and social tipping point (=impact would be measurable in atm CO2). Growing millions of ha of bamboo (as agroforestry, providing biodiversity, jobs etc.), to sequester carbon at GtC scale in the built environment 230
Paul Maidowski @ppmv.bsky.social · 13/12/2024I discourage climate sensationalism - some focus on extremes in daily time series, including daily CO2, and their statistical properties - because it's subject to confirmation bias. YET monthly CO2 is valid. An annual increase of 3.16 ppm CO2 in Sept 2024 is bad. 👀 gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/... 130
Paul Maidowski @ppmv.bsky.social · 05/12/2024Great research. Kind note to scientists who gracefully do science communications: do a little thread, even just 2-3 tweets. Readers need to know what they should open that link 😉 130