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The recent genomic sequencing data shared from Ireland is too thin to pick what might be driving this wave. As of mid-August, there was a surge in the Stratus sub-lineage ST.1, featuring the Spike A435S mutation.

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Reposted by Mike Honey

A little more genomic sequencing data has been shared from Thailand, but it's still too thin and lagging to pick what might be driving this wave. As of early August, Nimbus variants seemed dominant, but with a real soup of sub-lineages.

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Reposted by Mike Honey

BA.3.2.* Cicada has been dominant in Japan for several months now, mostly the SS.2 sub-lineage. SS.2 has been quite rare outside of Japan.

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Mike Honey @mikehoney.bsky.social · 09/09/2026

Here's the latest variant picture with a global scope, to late August. XFG.* "Stratus" variants continued to stretch their dominance, rising to 46% over NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" which fell to 27%. On this thread I’ll give an update on the progress of the most interesting new lineages. 🧵

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Reposted by Mike Honey

Yes, deaths from influenza have only been "ahead" in Australia for a handful of months over the last 3 years. That was during last winter's epic double-wave of influenza featuring the "Special K" variant. Even then, deaths from influenza were only marginally higher than deaths from COVID.

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Reposted by Mike Honey

Mike Honey @mikehoney.bsky.social · 08/09/2026

Stark difference in the ratios between cases vs hospitalisation levels: - COVID 7:1 - Influenza 19:1 COVID cases are roughly 2.5X more likely to be hospitalised.

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Reposted by Mike Honey

Mike Honey @mikehoney.bsky.social · 08/09/2026

Australian Meningococcal cases have been marginally lower in 2026 vs the past couple of years, on a similar trend. Note the ACDC applied data suppression of "<5" per jurisdiction from Feb 2026 to Sep 2026. When that was reverted on 3 Sep, 6 cases appeared in the data, in smaller jurisdictions.

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Mike Honey @mikehoney.bsky.social · 06/09/2026

Here's the latest variant picture with a global scope, to mid-August. XFG.* "Stratus" variants rebounded to challenge NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus". On this thread I’ll give an update on the progress of the most interesting new lineages. 🧵

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Mike Honey @mikehoney.bsky.social · 06/09/2026

Here’s the August 2026 update I just sent to my GitHub Sponsors. I continued to share results from these projects, here and on other social media platforms mike-honey.github.io/sponsors/Git... 🧵

mike-honey.github.io

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Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (AIHW) recently added another year to their Principal Diagnosis for Hospital Separations dataset, which I have integrated into my existing project. It now covers the period from mid-2010 to mid-2025. 🧵

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Here's the latest variant picture with a global scope, to early August. NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" continued to dominate, finishing at 48%. Several new lineages were defined this week - I’ll highlight some of them on this thread. 🧵

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Here’s the latest picture of the Bundibugyo Ebola outbreak in the DRC, up to August 26 (SitRep 104). The growth rate for confirmed cases seems to be slowing slightly in recent weeks as it approaches 5,800. Confirmed deaths might also be slowing as the toll passed 2,500. 🧵

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Mike Honey @mikehoney.bsky.social · 23/08/2026

Here’s the latest picture of the Diphtheria wave in Australia. The growth in diphtheria cases has greatly slowed in the Northern Territory and Western Australia. Case growth has also slowed in South Australia. 🧵

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Here's the latest variant picture with a global scope, to early August. NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" continued to dominate, finishing at 47%. Several new lineages were defined this week - I’ll highlight some of them on this thread. 🧵

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Mike Honey @mikehoney.bsky.social · 15/08/2026

Here's the latest variant picture for New Zealand, to early August. NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" lineages rebounded to dominance, finishing at 62%. JN.1.* + FliRT lineages grew strongly in late July to finish at 43%. #COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #NZ 🧵

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Mike Honey @mikehoney.bsky.social · 15/08/2026

Here's the latest variant picture for Australia, to the late July. NB.1.8.1.* "Nimbus" remained dominant, finishing at 56%. JN.1.* + FliRT lineages grew steadily to finish at 22%. #COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #Australia 🧵

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Mike Honey @mikehoney.bsky.social · 15/08/2026

Here's the latest variant picture with a global scope, to late July. NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" continued to dominate, growing to 53%. XFJ.* lineages grew to 10%, mostly from Europe and South America. The RW.1.1.* sub-lineages are driving the recent growth, characterised by the Spike A435S mutation. 🧵

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Mike Honey @mikehoney.bsky.social · 14/08/2026

Hi, I'm a snake in the grass on the rim of the Ngorongoro Crater.

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Reposted by Mike Honey

Mike Honey @mikehoney.bsky.social · 14/08/2026

Here are the trends for COVID-19, influenza and RSV in SA. Influenza has been growing steadily in a relatively late wave. It's still roughly 80% below last year's first peak. RSV appears to have peaked, although rates remain elevated. COVID-19 remains roughly flat, at a very low level.

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Reposted by Mike Honey

Mike Honey @mikehoney.bsky.social · 14/08/2026

Here are the trends for COVID-19, influenza and RSV in NSW. Influenza has been growing steadily in a relatively late wave. It's still roughly 50% below last year's first peak. RSV appears to have peaked as usual and rates have been falling for a couple of weeks now. COVID-19 remains roughly flat.

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Here's the latest variant picture for the United States, to mid-July. XFG.* "Stratus" remained dominant but fell as low as 33% before rebounding to finish at 52%. #COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #USA 🧵

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Here's the latest variant picture with a global scope, to mid-July. NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" continued to dominate, finishing at 45%. Several new lineages were defined this week - I’ll go some highlights on this thread. 🧵

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Reposted by Mike Honey

Here are the SA trends for COVID-19, Influenza and RSV over the last 18 months. RSV looks to have peaked, but indeed a very late influenza wave is clearly underway, with no peak yet in sight. Last year's freakish influenza double-wave is stark, with a huge area under the curve.

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Reposted by Mike Honey

Mike Honey @mikehoney.bsky.social · 02/08/2026

It seems a bit premature for the ACDC to be rolling out the "Mission Accomplished" banner on our Diphtheria outbreak? Cases are still growing quite steadily in the NT, and accelerated again in WA during the last week. The picture in SA is also concerning, with more cases detected.

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Reposted by Mike Honey

Diphtheria case growth continues to slow in both the NT and WA. The second chart uses a log scale to help compare the growth rates, which are tracking quite closely. 2 more cases have been reported from SA.

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Mike Honey @mikehoney.bsky.social · 02/08/2026

In Australia, the growth in measles cases has flattened out for the most part, with low recent growth in NSW, VIC and QLD. NSW has reported the highest rates for 2026, on a per-capita basis. It seems certain that more introductions will continue, from the countries with ongoing outbreaks.

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Reposted by Mike Honey

Mike Honey @mikehoney.bsky.social · 02/08/2026

The growth rates of Ebola cases and deaths look quite steady - if anything, they are accelerating.

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Mike Honey @mikehoney.bsky.social · 01/08/2026

Here's the latest variant picture with a global scope, to mid-July. NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" continued to dominate, but fell in recent samples to 48%. The JN.1.* + DeFLuQE group began to grow, finishing at 3%. This was driven by the new PJ.2.1 lineage, more details below. 🧵

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Mike Honey @mikehoney.bsky.social · 01/08/2026

Here’s the July 2026 update I just sent to my GitHub Sponsors. I continued to share results from these projects, here and on other social media platforms mike-honey.github.io/sponsors/Git... 🧵

mike-honey.github.io

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Mike Honey @mikehoney.bsky.social · 01/08/2026

Australian athletes like to win. How it started:

News video: Aussie swimmers land in Glasgow for the 2026 Commonwealth Games. All are wearing masks/respirators.

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Here's the latest variant picture with a global scope, to early July. NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" continued to dominate, growing to 51%. XFG.* "Stratus" fell to 18%. 🧵

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Here’s the latest picture of the Bundibugyo Ebola outbreak in the DRC, up to July 23 (SitRep 70). Confirmed cases jumped recently, mostly from Ituri province. The total by Health Zone is 2,972, with 1 case unassigned. Confirmed deaths were also revised sharply upwards, now at 1,309. 🧵

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Here’s the latest picture of the Diphtheria wave in Australia. The growth in diphtheria cases seems to be slowing in the Northern Territory and Western Australia. There has been quite sharp growth reported in South Australia, but there have been no updates since 9 July. 🧵

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Reposted by Mike Honey