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Dr Tom Harris

@drtomharris.bsky.social
1.8K followers 200 following 1.6K posts

UK based Climate Science Writer & Advocate writing on Substack under Climate Uncovered. Retired Management Consultant specialising in Government funded R&D. Centurion Level Zwifter 🚴‍♀️

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Dr Tom Harris @drtomharris.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Everyone is watching the AMOC, but a much faster-responding tipping point is flickering off Europe’s coast: the Subpolar Gyre (SPG). Operating on a decadal timescale, modeling suggests an SPG shutdown could hit by the 2040s—decades before the AMOC. 🧵 [1/3] drtomharris.substack.com/p/the-engine...
drtomharris.substack.com
The Engine in the Shadow: Why the Subpolar Gyre is Europe’s Immediate Climate Wildcard
While attention fixates on an AMOC collapse, a faster-responding subpolar tipping element could trigger severe European weather shifts and ocean cascades as early as the 2040s.
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Dr Tom Harris @drtomharris.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
I took part in an interesting Fridays for Coherence event which is now available on YouTube. I gave a presentation on the current Climate Predicament, which was followed by a second presentation from John Jones of World Climate Solutions. www.youtube.com/watch?v=gpP2... #climatechange #adaptation
youtube.com
Choosing Differently: Climate Reality to Collective Action | Fridays for Coherence 9-25-26
YouTube video by World Systems Solutions
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Dr Tom Harris @drtomharris.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
My recent climate change conversation with Dale Walkonen and Herb Simmons for Facing Future TV is now available on YouTube. www.youtube.com/watch?v=6tCR... #climatechange #albedo #EEI #foodsecurity #feedbacks #SRM #CCS #Elnino
youtube.com
12 Hiroshima Bombs Every Second
YouTube video by Facing Future
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Dr Tom Harris @drtomharris.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
A must watch 👇 natehagens.substack.com/p/a-state-of...
natehagens.substack.com
A State of the World Address: The Climate Speech We’ll Probably Never Hear
Frankly #160
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Dr Tom Harris @drtomharris.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
I’ll be doing a talk for MEERTalk on Friday 2nd October at 6pm BST / 1pm EDT. Registration is free and available on the link below. It will also be available live and afterwards on YouTube on the MEER SRM channel. YouTube: www.youtube.com/watch?v=5iFV... #climatechange #nature #carboncycle #MEER
youtube.com
MEERTalk with Tom Harris
YouTube video by MEER SRM
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Dr Tom Harris @drtomharris.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
The death of tropical coal reefs may be inevitable as their tipping point is crossed, but a new report provides some hope that there is time to act. drtomharris.substack.com/p/beyond-the... #climatechange #coral #coralreefs #marineheatwaves #coralbleaching #foodsecurity #coastalerosion #ecosystem
drtomharris.substack.com
Beyond the Threshold: Have Coral Reefs Crossed Earth’s First Climate Tipping Point?
A new global report stresses the vulnerability of coral reefs to warming oceans, but together with affordable technology, provides some hope that time can be bought to protect these vital ecosystems.
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Dr Tom Harris @drtomharris.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
The 2026 Planetary Health Check has been published. 7 of the 9 boundaries remain breached, with every one of them worse than year ago. Record ocean heat, droughts, floods, wildfires and extreme heat reveal an Earth system under strain. www.planetaryhealthcheck.org #PlanetaryBoundaries #PIK
planetaryhealthcheck.org
Planetary Health Check
We have breached 7 out of 9 Planetary Boundaries.The Planetary Health Check 2026 makes it clear: We have to act now.
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Dr Tom Harris @drtomharris.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
How can you write about saving the planet using an AI image for the post? The numbers may surprise you. drtomharris.substack.com/p/bonus-post... #AI #emissions #energy #climatechange
drtomharris.substack.com
Bonus Post: Pixel Accounting - Should I use AI imagery in posts about climate change?
AI has been getting a lot of bad press this week with concerns over the datacenter build out, alignment, safety, and of course, energy use and carbon emissions. Is it acceptable to use AI art?
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Dr Tom Harris @drtomharris.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
I'll be a guest speaker at a Fridays for Coherence event on Friday 25th September at 1pm EDT (6pm BST), hosted by World Systems Solutions. Registration is free, please see the attached flyer. To register, please visit: forms.cloud.microsoft/pages/respon... #climatechange #event
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Richard Allan @rpallanuk.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
A global decline is mineral dust in the 2000s, plausible related to declining wind speed & stronger vegetation growth in some regions, has more likely than not added heat to our planet based on satellite data, as described in this @aaas.org Science Advances paper: www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...
science.org
A global decline in atmospheric dust during the 21st century
Mineral dust affects Earth’s energy budget, clouds, and biochemistry, yet the evolution of the global dust cycle in recent decades remains shrouded in uncertainty. Here we reconstruct the global dust ...
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Prof. Eliot Jacobson @climatecasino.net · 16/09/2026
Your 'moment of doom' for Sept. 16, 2026 ~ Both Sides Now. "Passing 2°C of warming in the second half of the 2030s is therefore very likely, with significant implications for climate policy." drtomharris.substack.com/p/dimming-do...
drtomharris.substack.com
Dimming Down - How Albedo decline is accelerating warming and driving up climate sensitivity estimates
Disentangling aerosol unmasking from cloud feedbacks in the CERES satellite record and what a darker Earth means for accelerating warming and the Solar Geoengineering debate.
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Dr Tom Harris @drtomharris.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
The Earth is dimming, allowing more solar radiation to be absorbed, pushing up the energy imbalance and driving the accelerated warming being witnessed around the world. Why is this happening and could there be a solution? drtomharris.substack.com/p/dimming-do... #climatechange #albedo #aerosols
drtomharris.substack.com
Dimming Down - How Albedo decline is accelerating warming and driving up climate sensitivity estimates
Disentangling aerosol unmasking from cloud feedbacks in the CERES satellite record and what a darker Earth means for accelerating warming and the Solar Geoengineering debate.
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Dr Tom Harris @drtomharris.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
The Anthropocene was rejected as a geological epoch – but the idea is still changing how we see the world according to a new article in The Conversation this week. Article: theconversation.com/the-anthropo... #Anthropocene #geology #climatechange #futuregeology
theconversation.com
The Anthropocene was rejected as a geological epoch – but the idea is still changing how we see the world
New research argues no other concept reflects our planet-wide transformation in its proper context of deep time.
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Dr Tom Harris @drtomharris.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
Nature currently absorbs half of our fossil fuel and land-use emissions, but will this subsidy continue into the future as warming accelerates ecological breakdown, damaging these very carbon sinks? drtomharris.substack.com/p/the-invers... #climatechange #carbonsinks #permafrost #Oceans #Amazon
drtomharris.substack.com
The Inversion Hazard - When Carbon Sinks become Sources beyond 2°C
Half of the CO₂ that humans emit into the atmosphere each year is safely recaptured for free by the Earth’s biological and chemical systems. Warming projections rely on this continuing, but will it?
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Dr Tom Harris @drtomharris.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
This could be a screenshot from 🎬 The Day after Tomorrow 🎬, but no, it was Sept 3rd in the Pacific Ocean. Image from Michael Lowry's superb Substack: michaelrlowry.substack.com/p/lowell-las... #climatechange #elnino #hurricane #NOAA #Pacific
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Dr Tom Harris @drtomharris.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
Free Webinar on the Protection and Restoration of Ecosystems from watersheds to coral reefs. Featuring Tom Goreau who has just returned from a study in Cuba visiting the last remaining healthy Caribbean reef system. Event: bio4climate.org/conferences/...
bio4climate.org
Protect and Restore Ecosystems to Cool the Planet - Biodiversity for a Livable Climate
Protect and Restore Ecosystems to Cool the Planet Third Session The Ocean Starts Upstream: Restoration and Resilience from Watersheds to Coral Reefs Saturday, September 1910:00 AM - 12:00 PM ET Regist...
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Dr Tom Harris @drtomharris.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
Canada’s Changing Climate Report 2026 issued by the Government of Canada shows warming faster than the global average and worrying trends and predictions for the Arctic in coming decades. www.canada.ca/en/environme... #climatechange #Canada #globalwarming #climateimpacts
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Prof. Eliot Jacobson @climatecasino.net · 03/09/2026
Dear WMO, The planet has already passed the Paris limit of 1.5°C (2.7°F) above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial baseline, and is well on its way to 2.0°C (3.6°F) by 2037. You’re welcome.
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Dr Tom Harris @drtomharris.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
Why are climate impacts consistently under-predicted? The short answer: Science is moving at the speed of rigorous peer review, whilst the planet is warming at a rate unmatched in 66 million years. drtomharris.substack.com/p/why-have-c... #climatechange #IPCC #climateimpacts #ParisAgreement
drtomharris.substack.com
Why have climate impacts been underestimated?
Records are tumbling and impacts not expected until mid-century are now hitting every continent - what happened?
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Dr Tom Harris @drtomharris.bsky.social · 26/08/2026
Focusing solely on absolute temperature targets like +1.5ºC misses a critical geophysical risk: the warming velocity. Earth systems can often adapt to gradual warming over centuries, but rapid forced acceleration strips away their internal relaxation time. drtomharris.substack.com/p/the-veloci...
drtomharris.substack.com
The Velocity Hazard - Why the Rate of Warming Trumps Absolute Temperature Thresholds
New research is showing that absolute temperature thresholds, like 1.5° or 2°C, are not as important as the warming rate itself. Systems need time to adapt and can fail early if pushed too fast.
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Dr Tom Harris @drtomharris.bsky.social · 22/08/2026
2 months ago I wrote about the forecast Super El Niño and the implications for 2027+. Now that Godzilla has emerged, I’ve updated the analysis with the latest data available. Spoiler alert - The impacts are not looking any better! drtomharris.substack.com/p/not-just-a... #ElNino #ClimateImpacts
drtomharris.substack.com
Not Just Another “Super” El Niño Article - Updated 22nd August
The world is bracing, quite rightly, for a newly confirmed and likely very strong El Niño event, but the real risks lay in what follows.
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Jeff Berardelli @weatherprof.bsky.social · 19/08/2026
In this paper, the key point is that EEI has been increasing faster than previously expected, supporting the possibility that the climate may be more sensitive to greenhouse gases than earlier estimates suggested. 1/. agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/...
agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com
Recent Temperature and Energy Imbalance Trends Point to Higher Estimates of Future Warming
Recent surface warming and top-of-atmosphere energy imbalance point to higher future warming than previously estimated Previous constraints on transient climate response using observed surface te...
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Dr Tom Harris @drtomharris.bsky.social · 19/08/2026
The IPCC projected 2°C of warming for the 2050s. The physical data tells a different story. New analysis shows an accelerating Earth’s Energy Imbalance could bring 2°C as early as 2036. That brings 2°C into current food security policy & supply chain planning horizons. 🧵 👇 #climatechange #food
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Dr Tom Harris @drtomharris.bsky.social · 16/08/2026
The recording of my presentation to London Futurists yesterday is now available on Youtube. A copy of the slide deck is also available from the link below. www.youtube.com/watch?v=ohTT... drtomharris.substack.com/p/slide-deck... #climatechange #tippingpoints #elnino #SRM #CDR #net-zero #EEI
youtube.com
Disruptive Climate Futures, with Dr Tom Harris
YouTube video by London Futurists
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Dan Miller @danmiller999.bsky.social · 14/08/2026
Sunday 8/16 at 10am PT on Climate Chat: Does AMOC Collapse Depend on Rate of Warming? with René van Westen. #AMOC #ClimateChange @leonsimons.com @bikingmzstacey.bsky.social @radsci.bsky.social youtube.com/live/Zm0v_2r...
youtube.com
Does AMOC Collapse Depend on Rate of Warming? with René van Westen
YouTube video by Climate Chat
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Dr Tom Harris @drtomharris.bsky.social · 14/08/2026
I'm doing an on-line talk for London Futurists tomorrow (4pm BST 15th August). Registration is free and it will be on Youtube afterwards. Registration link: www.meetup.com/london-futur... #climatechange #EEI #net-zero #CDR #SRM #elnino #feedbacks #tippingpoints #climateimpacts
meetup.com
Disruptive Climate Futures, with Tom Harris, Sat, Aug 15, 2026, 4:00 PM | Meetup
What's really happening to our climate? Are we facing risks of even greater disruption, as planetary systems are pushed beyond tipping points? How does El Niño complicate m
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Dr Tom Harris @drtomharris.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
Crossing 1.5ºC is no longer just a political failure. It is now defined under international law as a crime. ⚖️🌍 We’ve probably already crossed this threshold, but international courts won't formally acknowledge the crime until 2035. Why? drtomharris.substack.com/p/the-measur... #climatechange #law
drtomharris.substack.com
The Measurement Trap: Why Hiding Behind 20-Year Averages Will Turn 1.5°C into a Crime Scene
International courts have declared that passing 1.5°C triggers legal liability—but our insistence on historic averages means we won’t legally recognise the crime until after the damage is irreversible
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Prof Ian Hall @ianhall.bsky.social · 11/08/2026
This isn’t talked about enough… Europe is warming faster than any other continent; at more than twice the global average. This isn’t a distant future. Talk about it with someone today.
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Dr Tom Harris @drtomharris.bsky.social · 10/08/2026
I had my first experience with wildfire smoke yesterday - it was horrible 😷 Even though we live over 30 miles from the fire and it was small by European standards, just popping outside briefly resulted in coughing. www.bbc.co.uk/news/article... #climatechange #wildfire #publichealth
bbc.co.uk
Helicopter tackles moorland wildfire major incident at Ebbw Vale
A major incident is declared due the number of resources required to fight moorland blaze.
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Dr Tom Harris @drtomharris.bsky.social · 09/08/2026
A new study finds that Siberian methane emissions have been increasing by 5% a year since 2010 due to a combination of climate change affects. Warmer, drier conditions over eastern Siberia enhance fire-related emissions, and wetter conditions over western Siberia promote wetland-related emissions.
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Dr Tom Harris @drtomharris.bsky.social · 05/08/2026
Methane is a less discussed greenhouse gas but one that is responsible for 30% of current warming. It makes up for its low concentration with a far higher greenhouse strength, and we’ve increased it by over 160%. drtomharris.substack.com/p/methane-co... #climatechange #methane #permafrost #oil
drtomharris.substack.com
Methane - CO₂’s troublesome little brother that packs a punch.
Methane is a powerful greenhouse gas but is short lived. This makes it a strong warming driver but also a fast acting brake if emissions are cut. A natural feedback lurks in the permafrost though.
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Dr Tom Harris @drtomharris.bsky.social · 29/07/2026
Warming is now accelerating to the point where 2ºC will be passed next decade and 3ºC is looking difficult to avoid. There are three levers that we still have available to avoid this outcome: decarbonisation, carbon removal and solar geoengineering. drtomharris.substack.com/p/the-3-leve...
drtomharris.substack.com
The 3 levers that could stabilise the climate
Decarbonisation, Carbon Dioxide Removal and Solar Geoengineering all have the potential to reduce the Earth’s Energy Imbalance. Will we need all three to stabilise the climate?
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Dr Tom Harris @drtomharris.bsky.social · 28/07/2026
This is a very well researched and thoughtful analysis of the human cost of continued warming, examining the claim that 3 billion could die if/when 3ºC of warming is reached later this century. Well worth reading👇 safeclimate.org.au/article/coul... #climatechange #foodsecurity #migration #mortality
safeclimate.org.au
Could Four Billion People Die at 3°C? | Safe Climate Action
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Dr Tom Harris @drtomharris.bsky.social · 24/07/2026
I gave a climate change talk to the Cybernetics Society this week. The recording is now available on YouTube www.youtube.com/watch?v=FZCk... #climatechange #energyimbalance #geoengineering #decarbonisation #netzero
youtube.com
Have we entered a New Normal? Tom Harris. Cybernetics Live 22 July 2026.
YouTube video by Cybernetics Society
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Dr Tom Harris @drtomharris.bsky.social · 21/07/2026
There are some ideas that are bad, but some are completely crazy 🤯 Putting mirrors into space to reflect MORE sunlight down to Earth, when the energy imbalance is so high already counts as crazy. #geoengineering #agriculture #space #spacemirrors #climatechange www.nature.com/articles/d41...
nature.com
Can giant space mirrors boost green energy on Earth? A start-up aims to find out
Astronomers are deeply worried that a planned array of 50,000 mirror-bearing satellites in orbit will severely compromise telescopes.
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PIK_climate @pik-potsdam.bsky.social · 20/07/2026
JOB OFFER: Senior Scientist in integrated assessment modelling & climate change mitigation pathway analysis 📍 Potsdam, Germany 📅 Starting 1 November 2026 ⏳ Fixed term: 2 years, 5 months 🗓 Apply by 13 August 2026 👉 more info: potsdam.pi-asp.de/bewerber-web...
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Dr Tom Harris @drtomharris.bsky.social · 19/07/2026
This is a very worthwhile read 👇
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Richard Allan @rpallanuk.bsky.social · 17/07/2026
Slowing emissions reductions means more financially crushing #climate change - was nothing learned from the pandemic? It’s the area under the curve that matters, in this case greenhouse gas emissions over time. www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
bbc.co.uk
EU proposes slowing down cuts to carbon emissions for businesses
Under the proposals, the EU plans to relax its emissions trading system to give companies more time to reduce their carbon output.
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Dr Tom Harris @drtomharris.bsky.social · 15/07/2026
As we in Europe recover from another heatwave, others brace for the next one and other extreme weather events pepper the globe, weather attribution science updates us on the contribution Climate Change is making to all these events - but how does it work? drtomharris.substack.com/p/how-much-i...
drtomharris.substack.com
How much is Climate Change to blame for Extreme Weather?
The science of Extreme Weather Attribution is used to assign a climate change contribution to the seasonal climate as well as individual weather events, but how does it work?
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Dr Tom Harris @drtomharris.bsky.social · 14/07/2026
A new study may have helped to explain how the ocean storage of carbon changes with sea level over the paleoclimate. When sea levels are high, ocean carbon sink drops leading to high atmospheric CO₂ which keeps temperatures and therefore sea levels high. #carbonsink #oceans #paleoclimate #CO2
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Dr Tom Harris @drtomharris.bsky.social · 13/07/2026
⚠️🔥⚠️ An 'exceptional' red warning for wildfire has been issued for much of England and Wales. A post on LinkedIn by David Shukman explains the dangers: www.linkedin.com/posts/david-...
linkedin.com
#londonclimateresiliencereview | David Shukman | 56 comments
An 'exceptional' red warning for wildfire has been issued for much of England and Wales. This is only the second time we've had this level of alert - so it's serious. It's the result of the endles...
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Zack Labe @zacklabe.com · 10/07/2026
🚨 The data is finally in for the first quarter of the year, and it's not looking good... Global ocean heat content just set another new record high! Data (anomalies) & methods from www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/globa...
Line graph time series of global ocean heat content for the 0-2000 m layer for 3-month averages, yearly averages, and five years averages from the late 1950s to 2026. There is a long-term warming trend. The baseline is 1955-2006 for the zero reference to calculate the anomalies.
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Dr Tom Harris @drtomharris.bsky.social · 08/07/2026
Sea Level Rise is baked in for centuries with only the rate uncertain. Driven by thermal expansion, melting ice sheets and land height changes, and exacerbated by ever more extreme storm surges, protection and adaptation is becoming critical. drtomharris.substack.com/p/coastal-pr... #sealevelrise
drtomharris.substack.com
Coastal Protection: How much Sea Level Rise is it sensible to plan for?
Sea level rise may hit more slowly than heatwaves, but it is relentless and unstoppable. Building defences is costly and takes time, so what level of protection should Governments plan for?
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Prof. Stefan Rahmstorf @rahmstorf.bsky.social · 03/07/2026
Another study by Bischof et al. 2023 found in dedicated model simulations "that cold subpolar North Atlantic sea surface temperatures significantly increase heat wave duration and magnitude downstream over the European continent." ⬇️ agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/...
agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com
The Role of the North Atlantic for Heat Wave Characteristics in Europe, an ECHAM6 Study
Model study designed to investigate the ocean impact on European heat waves by prescribing observed and realistic ocean surface conditions Cold subpolar North Atlantic sea surface temperatures si...
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Dr Tom Harris @drtomharris.bsky.social · 01/07/2026
The Barents Sea, a shallow area on the edge of the Arctic Ocean played an important role in the evolution of the ice age but could also provide a useful backstop to a weakening AMOC. #climatechange #Arctic #AMOC #paleoclimate #oceancirculation #iceage drtomharris.substack.com/p/the-barent...
drtomharris.substack.com
The Barents Sea - Architect of the Ice Age and potential AMOC Backstop
Two recent papers show the importance of the Barents Seaway in sustaining the AMOC today as well as helping to shape the evolution of the ice age through the mid-Pleistocene Transition.
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Dr Tom Harris @drtomharris.bsky.social · 28/06/2026
This is a very interesting analysis of deforestation from Hannah Ritchie. Well worth a read 👇 hannahritchie.substack.com/p/deforestat... #deforestation #food #imports
hannahritchie.substack.com
How much deforestation is your country importing through trade?
An interactive tool to explore deforestation flows across the world.
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Dr Tom Harris @drtomharris.bsky.social · 26/06/2026
For context the 2023 peak was 2.03ºC and the 2016 strong event was 2.72ºC peak. Model mean of 4ºC forecast is just insane 🤯 This is going to get ugly
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Prof Ian Hall @ianhall.bsky.social · 24/06/2026
Every heatwave is a glimpse of a possible future. This is a good time to decide which future we want.
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umsonst.bsky.social @umsonst.bsky.social · 24/06/2026
Link a short overview on currents We trigger a non linear reaction of upper currents in the oceans and break downs of deeper currents Not just the AMOC it's way worse Stratification is the main driver Internal tides 5x times speed up Great gyres can abruptly change #climate #earth
worldatlas.com
How Do Ocean Currents Affect Climate?
Why is Western Europe so mild for its latitude? Discover how ocean currents move heat across the globe and shape the climates we live in.
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Dr Tom Harris @drtomharris.bsky.social · 24/06/2026
Within a system as complex as the Earth’s climate, small events in one place can trigger and be triggered by seemingly unconnected events thousands of miles away. We are living in a Domino Maze and we keep nudging the start tile. drtomharris.substack.com/p/the-planet... #climatechange #cascade
drtomharris.substack.com
The Planetary Domino Effect - Global Climate Teleconnections & Feedback Cascades
How breaking climate buffers, teleconnections, and feedbacks are synchronising into a self-amplifying domino effect that threatens to permanently push global temperatures past 1.5°C
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