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David Nir

@davidnir.com
13K followers 23 following 2.6K posts

Publisher, @the-downballot.com. davidnir (at) the-downballot (dot) com Our site: the-downballot.com

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Reposted by David Nir
The Downballot @the-downballot.com · 5h
Michigan will decide in November whether to hold the nation's first constitutional convention since the 1980s. Oklahoma Gov. Kevin Stitt has scheduled a similar referendum for his state for April—but his fellow Republicans argue he lacks this power and this vote shouldn't happen.
the-downballot.com
Morning Digest: Voters in two states could soon choose to rewrite their constitutions
Michigan will hold a vote this fall, while Oklahoma is embroiled in a legal battle
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Joe Sudbay @joesudbay.bsky.social · 3h
this is fascinating deep dive worth reading for many reasons, but especially to learn the key role played by former US Rep. Bob Bauman, "a closeted gay man who was widely considered one of the most conservative members of Congress"
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Aaron Fritschner @fritschner.bsky.social · 18h
[SENATOR ERIC SCHMITT]: So you’re telling me under oath that you’ve never spoken with an Attorney General nominee? [JACK SMITH]: No, I don’t think— [SCHMITT]: WELL THEN *unveils poster* please explain this picture of you with Matt Gaetz! [SMITH]: That is Media Matters senior fellow Matt Gertz
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Don Moynihan @donmoyn.bsky.social · 22h
And once again, real harms imposed on real people must be set aside until after real damage is done in order to privilege the unproven right of Trump to impose those harms
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The Downballot @the-downballot.com · 29/09/2026
Quite the flag from @jacobbiba.bsky.social. Ad from Republican in #NC11: Jennifer Balkcom: Mom raised us on her own. She taught us to be strong. And when someone broke into our house, she shot 'em. Mom: You break into my house, you're going to get shot. www.youtube.com/watch?v=s1lD...
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The Downballot @the-downballot.com · 29/09/2026
Don't sleep on Montana's state Supreme Court race. Moderates have long held the balance of power on the seven-member body, but Dan Wilson, who is running with the state GOP's ardent support, would strengthen conservatives should he beat Amy Eddy, who is emphasizing nonpartisanship.
the-downballot.com
Morning Digest: Conservatives want to erode the top obstacle to total GOP control in Montana
A key Supreme Court race—and a plan to protect judicial independence—are both on the ballot
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David Nir @davidnir.com · 28/09/2026
This move will only draw more attention to the story. Takedown notice sometimes succeed in removing third-party ads b/c stations may conclude the risks of a defamation suit are too high. But they're immune from liability for defamation for *candidate* ads, which this one is. #StreisandEffect
kansasreflector.com
Roger Marshall alleges defamation in new ad about former Kansas patient arrested while in debt • Kansas Reflector
Lawyers for U.S. Sen. Roger Marshall, a Republican running for reelection, sent his opponent a cease-and-desist letter demanding the Democrat stop airing an ad featuring one of the senator’s former pa...
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David Nir @davidnir.com · 28/09/2026
Quite the chart flagged by @pkrugman.bsky.social in his newsletter yesterday, created by Columbia Business School Prof. Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh www.brookings.edu/wp-content/u...
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David Nir @davidnir.com · 28/09/2026
It's remarkable, as @gregsargent.bsky.social points out, that the very same areas that prompted grandiose talk of a Trump-driven realignment immediately following 2024 now represent turf where Trump's brand is at its weakest—and has put seats in play for Democrats. newrepublic.com/article/2158...
Trump carried North Carolina’s 11th by nearly 10 points, and he carried Texas’s 15th by nearly 18 points. The North Carolina district is in the western part of the state, deep in Appalachian Trump country. The Texas district is in one of the border areas that Trump dominated, prompting talk of a major realignment among Latino voters.

He’s now deeply underwater in places just like these. Indeed, in a statement, the Democratic-aligned House Majority PAC says its polling is showing Trump’s approval sinking “especially in districts Trump won by over 10 percent.” But you don’t have to take Democrats’ word for it: Note that Trump’s own Super PAC and its affiliates are sinking money into shoring up both the North Carolina and Texas districts.

For these to be serious toss-ups suggests extraordinary deterioration in Trump’s standing among many different demographics, from noncollege and rural whites to the Hispanic voters that defected to Trump in 2024. And there’s other evidence that Trump’s collapse is a big factor in these districts, too.

The Cook Political Report, for instance, also shifted Florida’s 27th district from Likely Republican to Lean Republican—hard for Democrats to win, but not impossible.  Recall that the GOP congresswoman who represents it, Maria Elvira Salazar, just ran a direct-to-camera ad denouncing Trump for his “betrayal” of Latinos who supported him. This wouldn’t be happening unless he’s cratering in this district as well—after Trump carried it by nearly 15 points. It’s now at least within reach for Democrats on a very, very good election night.
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Greg Sargent @gregsargent.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
Trump is raging at news orgs for refusing to cover his reception of Xi after he banned three from the White House. The real lesson here: When institutions join together to resist his abuses of power it actually works, sending him into a helpless fury. New from me: newrepublic.com/article/2158...
newrepublic.com
Trump’s Angry Tirade Over Failing Press Ban Reveals His Achilles’ Heel
Trump is furious that news organizations are fighting back against his vile efforts to punish their colleagues—because collective resistance to his authoritarianism actually works.
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The Downballot @the-downballot.com · 28/09/2026
Fort Worth's Tarrant County was long a bastion for Texas Republicans up and down the ballot. Alisa Simmons has the chance to become its first Democratic leader since 1986 in a contest that could impact her party's statewide fortunes.
the-downballot.com
Morning Digest: Texas Democrats campaign for control of battleground county
The race to lead once-red Tarrant County could have big implications statewide
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David Nir @davidnir.com · 27/09/2026
It’s very unusual to see the Maine media take this sort of approach toward Collins. The headline alone reveals a great deal.
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Steve Vladeck @stevevladeck.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Here's a graphic that does a better job of conveying the point than my original post: even by the (insane) standards of the first Trump administration, #SCOTUS is receiving—and granting—a truly unprecedented number of applications for emergency relief from the federal government:
A chart that shows the number of emergency applications filed and granted by the Supreme Court during each presidency dating back to George W. Bush, with the data annualized to show the far-higher frequencies since 2017, but especially during the Trump I and Trump II administrations.
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The Downballot @the-downballot.com · 25/09/2026
Oklahoma Republicans gerrymandered this U.S. House seat to make sure they never had a repeat of their shock 2018 loss. But Jena Nelson argues she has a path to unseat Republican Rep. Stephanie Bice—and national Democrats reportedly are listening.
the-downballot.com
Morning Digest: The site of 2018's biggest shocker might soon draw renewed Democratic interest
The DCCC is reportedly eyeing a seat the GOP gerrymandered after an upset in the last blue wave
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Daniel Donner @donnermaps.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
There's still more to show in the relationship between primary votes and the House popular vote! You can plot the data in graph below as a scatterplot. But a) it's obvious from the original graph this is a bad idea and b) it's not too helpful if you want to predict things. But...
A scatterplot of House popular vote margin versus national primary margin in midterm elections from 1918 to 2022. While there is a decent regression for the data, they fall in a wide band, such that any prediction you try to make will not be helpful. For instance, this year we would expect a House popular vote margin between about R +15 or so and D +12 based on the primary margin of D +11. Not useful at all!
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Charlie Hunt @charlesrhunt.com · 25/09/2026
On Highway to Hill this week, @the-downballot.com's own @davidnir.com joined me and SoRelle to talk about these trends. "Democrats need to be prepared for the possibility of a massive year, even bigger than 2018."
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David Nir @davidnir.com · 25/09/2026
@joshtpm.bsky.social Might be time to start a regular Panic Watch. Note the outlet *and* and the author! www.dailymail.com/debate/artic...
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Adam Schiffer @adamschiffer.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
This is an incredible chart, to the point where I'm trying to figure out what's wrong. I know the data are legit. And you can't argue that it's tautological. How did we not pick up on this tight correlation before?
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The Downballot @the-downballot.com · 24/09/2026
The primaries are over, but California's top-two system has set off five competitive Democrat vs. Democrat general elections for House—plus one big race between two Republican incumbents.
the-downballot.com
Morning Digest, sponsored by Oath: We've got the lowdown on all of California's Democrat vs. Democrat contests
Thanks to the top-two primary, several incumbents still face serious intra-party trouble
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Daniel Donner @donnermaps.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
If we could go back in time to use the national primary margin to predict the midterm House popular vote with the data available at that time, how well would it have done? Pretty well overall, with some significant misses like 2006. (Note we see no warning signs of a miss like 2006 for this year.)
Graph showing the actual House Popular vote margin compared to that predicted by the primary margin. Major trends match, and about half the time the prediction is very close.
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The Downballot @the-downballot.com · 23/09/2026
When Democrats flipped #OK05 in 2018, it was a laser-eyes capper to a wild election night. Since then, Republicans have made the seat considerably redder, so if it's back in play ... hoo boy. www.oklahoman.com/story/news/p...
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The Downballot @the-downballot.com · 23/09/2026
If you haven't checked out this new analysis from us yet, you'll definitely want to. And if you *have*, we'd be extremely grateful if you'd support our work by becoming a paid subscriber—which also comes with cool perks! www.the-downballot.com/subscribe
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Reposted by David Nir
The Downballot @the-downballot.com · 23/09/2026
New ad reservations, spending reports, and triage maneuvers show a House map that continues to get better for Democrats.
the-downballot.com
Morning Digest, sponsored by Oath: New moves show House battlefield continuing to shift toward Democrats
Spending, reservations, and triage all point in one direction with six weeks to go
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David Nir @davidnir.com · 23/09/2026
This brief by People Not Politicians—asking SCOTUS to affirm its stay that would prevent the Missouri GOP's congressional gerrymander from being used in November—is an incredibly good read.
documentcloud.org
2026.09.22 Von Glahn v. Hoskins Emergency Stay Application
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David Nir @davidnir.com · 22/09/2026
@slack.engineering Any way to revert link previews to their previous style? Thanks!
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David Nir @davidnir.com · 22/09/2026
Editing this piece was a true pleasure, but this was the graph that made me really sit up and go, "WOW!"
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The Downballot @the-downballot.com · 22/09/2026
In primaries this year, Democratic turnout utterly dwarfed Republican turnout. But does it mean anything for November? It turns out the answer is very much yes. A new analysis from @donnermaps.bsky.social suggests that Dems are on track for a 13-point blowout in the House vote. Here's why.
the-downballot.com
Massive primary turnout points to biggest year for Democrats since Watergate
There’s a remarkably close correlation between the primary vote and the House popular vote
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Daniel Donner @donnermaps.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
If you wanted to design a policy to hurt Trump voters in particular, a diesel fuel price increase would be very effective. Three states - WY, ND, AK - even use more diesel than gasoline. Details by state; not all use is paid for by residents of course: www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet...
Chart showing diesel usage per person in 2024 by state. At the top, Wyoming, North Dakota, and Alaska are at about 20 barrels per person for the year. The only blue states near the top of the chart are Maine and New Mexico. At the bottom is California, Florida, Delaware, Michigan, Maryland, and New Jersey, which all use about 2.5 barrels per person.
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The Downballot @the-downballot.com · 19/09/2026
South Dakota’s Republican secretary of state, Monae Johnson, just endorsed the Democrat running to succeed her, Terrence Davis. Johnson lost the GOP nod at a party convention in June to Heather Baxter, a member of the state Freedom Caucus who wants to hand-count all ballots.
dakotawarcollege.com
A Personal Statement from Monae L Johnson, South Dakota Secretary of State: Why I Am Supporting Terrence Davis. (Guest Column)
A Personal Statement from Monae L. Johnson, South Dakota Secretary of State:  Why I Am Supporting Terrence Davis A personal statement on judgment, competen
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SiriusXM Progress @siriusxmprog.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
@davidnir.com of @the-downballot.com on the @msignorile.bsky.social Show discussing how @realdonaldtrump.govmirrors.com's terrible economics policies will help #Democrats with the #Midterms Catch the full interview on demand on the SiriusXM app: siriusxm.us/Progress
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G Elliott Morris @gelliottmorris.com · 18/09/2026
I appreciate Matthew Yglesias owning up to his worldview that calling out attacks on democracy is "resistance maximalism." A lot of people in the mainstream press aren't as honest about the institutional bias toward both-sidesing democracy for fear of alienating Republicans, but he just says it!
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The Downballot @the-downballot.com · 18/09/2026
Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar of Florida made news with ad distancing herself from Donald Trump as a backlash against Trump’s hardline immigration policies threatens to cost the GOP heavily Latino seats like hers.
the-downballot.com
Morning Digest, sponsored by Oath: Vulnerable Republican pleads with Trump to dial back hardline immigration policies
But Maria Elvira Salazar has been a reliable GOP vote—and faces the wrath of Latino voters
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Jeff Singer @jeffsinger.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
Mike Rogers making a college freshman campaign chair of at least four counties is unusual, but lots of young people in politics prove to be strong leaders. But most of them don't go on social media to complain about how bad things are going.
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Comfortably Numb @numb.comfortab.ly · 18/09/2026
Post from Amy @lolennui.bsky.social

So cool that whenever someone asks the president, "did you eat the Lindbergh baby" he's like, "no but I'd be allowed to, I have the right to, I might do it later"
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SiriusXM Progress @siriusxmprog.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
On today's @msignorile.bsky.social Show ‼️ @noahmichelson.bsky.social of @huffpost.com @davidnir.com @the-downballot.com @markpocan.bsky.social 🔊Listen Here: siriusxm.us/Signorile Give us your calls at: 866-997-4748
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David Nir @davidnir.com · 17/09/2026
So... what happened with this? No further posts on this account, and their stated date(s) have come and gone. x.com/FettermanStaff
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David Nir @davidnir.com · 17/09/2026
Justin counseled calm and patience as this case unfolded, and he was right that the courts would block this maneuver. His explanation is very much worth hearing.
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David Nir @davidnir.com · 16/09/2026
Everything's falling into place
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The Downballot @the-downballot.com · 17/09/2026
National Republicans are once again spending to stop independent Dan Osborn in Nebraska, where polls show him locked in a close race against GOP Sen. Pete Ricketts.
the-downballot.com
Morning Digest, sponsored by Oath: Republicans steer cash to Nebraska's Senate race
The GOP is trying to label independent Dan Osborn a Democrat
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David Nir @davidnir.com · 16/09/2026
Everything's falling into place
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The Downballot @the-downballot.com · 16/09/2026
The sponsor of today's Morning Digest, @oath-vote.bsky.social, is hosting an Election Fantasy League—with a very big prize! Everyone who enters is eligible to win, but if you want bragging rights among The Downballot community, we've created our own "side-league." Click here to join!
thedemocracydraft.com
The Democracy Draft — An Election Fantasy League
Spend 100 points on the 2026 map. Chalk is cheap, upsets pay big.
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The Downballot @the-downballot.com · 16/09/2026
Indiana's four-way secretary of state race is one of the most interesting contests in America, and not only because Abraham Lincoln in sunglasses is on the ballot. A well-funded Democrat is trying to score a big breakthrough in an election where an ex-Republican is being attacked by his old party.
the-downballot.com
Morning Digest, sponsored by Oath: Why the Indiana GOP is sweating the race for secretary of state
And why Democrats may achieve their long-awaited breakthrough
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Steve Benen @stevebenen.com · 15/09/2026
Quite a recent pattern: - GOP candidate in Fla. marched alongside neo-Nazis - Husted fires aide over Nazi photo - Collins fires aide over swastika images - State Dept hires speechwriter whom DeSantis fired over video with Nazi imagery - Trump rewards Paul Ingrassia, who said he has a “Nazi streak”
ms.now
Republican state legislative candidate marched alongside neo-Nazis, adding to pattern
As a rule, state House candidates’ backgrounds tend not to generate national headlines, but once in a while, there are important exceptions.
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James Lambert @hellofasandwich.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
How are they allowed to do that when "No Going Back" is literally their name 🤔
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David Nir @davidnir.com · 16/09/2026
Tonight's a good night to read this 2002 piece by @jonathanbchait.bsky.social
newrepublic.com
The Case Against Delaware
The First State subsidizes itself at the rest of America's expense.
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David Nir @davidnir.com · 15/09/2026
This, from @daveweigel.bsky.social. So. Hard. x.com/daveweigel/s...
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The Downballot @the-downballot.com · 15/09/2026
New for 2026: We've relaunched our independent expenditure tracker for House races, keeping tabs each week on where the biggest groups are spending money. But there's one big thing to be aware of...
docs.google.com
The Downballot 2026 major House group independent expenditures tracker
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The Downballot @the-downballot.com · 15/09/2026
Super psyched for this event hosted by @mattbooker.bsky.social—an alum of The Downballot who's now a pollster at @changeresearch.com. Tomorrow's discussion is on Black voters in the Midwest. RSVP here—it's free!
changeresearch.zoom.us
Welcome! You are invited to join a webinar: Plus or Minus: Tracking the Midterms with Change Research. After registering, you will receive a confirmation email about joining the webinar.
Every month, Change Research reaches into our Compass Poll data to walk you through what voters are saying and feeling. In this live briefing, our team breaks down the freshest findings from the Chang...
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The Downballot @the-downballot.com · 15/09/2026
Whenever the Mississippi Senate race comes up on social media, someone will say the candidates need to win a majority to avoid a runoff. But that's just not true, because there's no runoff for this race. The Downballot puts on our mythbusting hat and explains where this confusion came from.
the-downballot.com
Morning Digest: Why Mississippi's Senate race won't go to a runoff—no matter what
The contest will end in November, even if no one wins a majority of the vote
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David Nir @davidnir.com · 14/09/2026
Seeking recommendations for an egalitarian shul offering virtual Neilah services this year. (For some reason, mine is not hosting one.) Thank you & shana tova!
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