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Paul Clist

@paulclist.bsky.social
449 followers 764 following 29 posts

Development Economist @ UEA, UK Experiments, Language, Risk, Lying, Development Aid, Tax

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Reposted by Paul Clist
Our World in Data @ourworldindata.org · 26/09/2026
Foreign aid contributions fell in 2025 amongst almost all of the top 10 donors. In 2025, the amount of foreign aid given by the world’s richest countries fell by almost a quarter. That amounted to a reduction of roughly US$50 billion.
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Charlotte Cavaille @ccavaille.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
Small-N assessment: AI makes everyone more productive output-wise, but I, as a senior person with prior knowledge benefit the most, while my ("junior") students struggle with actual learning. This paper proves this with a larg(er)-N causal design: www.nber.org/papers/w35720
nber.org
Does AI Assistance Enhance or Erode Expertise? Evidence from a Three-Month Field Experiment in Patent Drafting
Founded in 1920, the NBER is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting economic research and to disseminating research findings among academics, public policy makers, an...
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Al Roth @alroth.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
Michael Kremer, one of the most creative and dedicated economists of our time, has found his next act, at the World Bank. (Sometimes the news is encouraging, even nowadays.) #econsky #academicsky marketdesigner.blogspot.com/2026/09/mich...
marketdesigner.blogspot.com
Micheal Kremer's next (post-Nobel) Act: The World Bank
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NBER @nber.org · 12/09/2026
Cognitive noise models provide a unified explanation, based on the efficient use of scarce cognitive resources, for many anomalies documented in behavioral economics, from Ryan Oprea and Michael Woodford www.nber.org/papers/w35714
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Stephanie Wang @sweiwang.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
🚨Elsevier is now hunting for GEB editors without the input of the academic community. Please say no. We all understand the power of coordination. You can use @combeju.bsky.social letter below as a template. #econsky
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Center for Global Development @cgdev.org · 03/09/2026
Aid is once again facing major cuts. What should the @oecd-ocde.bsky.social’s Development Assistance Committee do in response? @charlesjkenny.bsky.social looks to lessons from the 1990s—and argues it may be time to rethink how we define and focus development assistance. go.cgdev.org/3Ux8x2p
cgdev.org
The Development Assistance Committee Sinks to the Occasion?
The OECD’s Development Assistance Committee (DAC) defines what counts as Overseas Development Assistance (ODA) —what we usually think of as “aid.” It has been around since the 1960s, and has weathered...
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Reposted by Paul Clist
Data Colada @datacolada.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
Colada[139] Artificial Deadlines Part 2 Evidence of fraud in the 25 year old gradesheet behind the key finding in an influential paper on deadlines and procrastination. datacolada.org/139
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Erik Mohlin @karlerikmohlin.bsky.social · 05/05/2026
New paper:🚨 A Model of Social Duties 🚨, with @toreellingsen.bsky.social, in Journal of Political Economy (lead article). www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/... Free version: drive.google.com/file/d/1-I7E... We present a conceptualization and a formal model of duties and duty-based motivation.
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Vince Crawford @vincecrawford.bsky.social · 24/08/2026
Elsevier has put its own profits over quality of research for decades now. Wait and see whom they recruit to fill the shell of this once-top field journal's editorial board. (They apparently declined advice from anyone in the journal's community.) GEB will probably be re-born under a new name....
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Dan Silverman @dmsilverman.bsky.social · 20/08/2026
I’m not sure folks appreciate how bad AI’s effects are in this new paper The graph that went viral shows AI hurts students on regular class tests But the paper also looks at China‘s high-stakes national HS and college entrance exams — AI use leads students to do up to 18-24% (!) worse on those
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Stephanie Wang @sweiwang.bsky.social · 16/08/2026
🚨Elsevier forces out Games and Economic Behavior (GEB) Editor, entire editorial board has resigned, current board only handling new submissions until Nov. 14 #econsky
    Dear Advisory Editor of GEB
    We are very sorry to be the bearers of bad news for GEB.
I learned from Elsevier on Wednesday July 28 that, contrary to my expressed willingness to continue, my 3-year contract will not be renewed.
    "Moving towards a closer alignment with Elsevier strategic priorities and publishing policies" was offered as the motive for this decision. Requests for explanations, first by me, then in a collective letter by the other six Editors, were dismissed by Elsevier which simply reaffirmed its legal power to make such decisions.
    Elsevier then started precipitously its own search for new Editors without input of the Editorial Board.
    By Friday August 14 all seven Editors have sent their resignation, requiring a 3-month advance notice.
    Therefore, we will continue to manage as before the papers currently under review and the new submissions until Saturday November 14. After this date we will only complete the evaluation of papers still waiting an editorial decision.
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Belinda Archibong @belindaarch.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
Brilliant new paper from @oyebolaoo.bsky.social forthcoming in @aeajournals.bsky.social on the positive impacts of both making wealthy citizens aware that the government knows who they are/what their assets are and detailing penalties for tax non-compliance using evidence from Liberia #Econsky
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Michael Clemens @mclem.org · 12/08/2026
Incredible. When E—n M—k & his crew obliterated USAID in a weekend, they deleted a vast trove of publicly-funded knowledge: the Development Experience Clearinghouse. A Canadian high school student (!) happened to have downloaded the entire thing for a project. AidData has now posted it for all.
aiddata.org
Before reimagining development data, remember what we’ve learned
Why we’re publishing a free, searchable, and ungated archive featuring a quarter-century of USAID evaluation reports.
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John Holbein @johnholbein1.bsky.social · 21/07/2026
Shutting down USAID literally made Africa darker.
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Mauricio Romero @marome1.bsky.social · 20/07/2026
The latest paper I accepted at the JDE: many surveys let another household member report a worker's earnings when the worker isn't home. @ricardoestradam.bsky.social , Goyheix & @marialombardi.bsky.social measure what that proxy reporting does. 🧵
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Politics UK @politicsuk.com · 18/07/2026
🚨 NEW: Andy Burnham is set to increase international aid spending to 0.7% of GDP [@Independent]
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The Review of Economic Studies (REStud) @reveconstudies.bsky.social · 01/07/2026
🚨🚨 NEW ECONOMICS JOURNAL 🚨🚨 We are excited to announce the launch of The Review of Economic Studies: Insights, a new open-access journal in the REStud family. Mission: publish concise, high-quality research on important questions across economics and economic policy.🧵1/13
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Paul Clist @paulclist.bsky.social · 30/06/2026
New paper with @martinscott2010.bsky.social on development aid, politician's decisions and media influence. Aid allocation research tends to focus on how the aid budget gets divided. We look at how politicians make decisions about the size of the aid budget. authors.elsevier.com/sd/article/S...
authors.elsevier.com
The politician, the press and the public: How politicians’ perceptions of the media shape UK aid allocations
This paper examines politicians’ attitudes and beliefs about the press, their potential role in shaping aid policy and how these views differ from the…
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Ian Mitchell @ianmitchell1.bsky.social · 17/07/2025
New survey: Brits think that the UK's new aid budget is too low. One of many interesting findings in the BFPG survey.
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International Development Economics Association @ideadevecon.bsky.social · 24/06/2026
What is IDEA?
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deankarlan.bsky.social @deankarlan.bsky.social · 25/05/2026
New working paper with Amol Singh Raswan and Chris Udry: "The Sisyphean Pursuit of Evidence for Poverty Traps." A central idea in development economics is that poverty can trap people. We went looking for the cleanest evidence. Here's what we found – and didn't.
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Deena Mousa @deenamousa.com · 17/06/2026
Rats are virtually everywhere humans live. Except for Alberta, Canada. Most residents there have never even seen one. How did they eliminate a pest we take as a fact of life? By waging war.
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Brad DeLong @braddelong.bsky.social · 08/06/2026
Noah’s subhead for this piece of his post: “Borjas again”. Failed replications are embarrassing, but they happen. However, they need to be not too common, and they very much need to not always lean the same way. Then they are not inadvertent errors or “mistakes”: they are violations of the... 1/
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srgitter @sethgitter.bsky.social · 08/06/2026
If you publish in development this is always a super helpful overview of development journals. Wish there were more like this for other journals
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Institute for Replication @i4replication.bsky.social · 04/06/2026
🚨 CORRIGENDUM ALERT 🚨 A decade after Star Wars: The Empirics Strike Back was published in AEJ: Applied, we've just published an official corrigendum with the AEA. This is a love story. 🧵
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Atheendar Venkataramani @atheendar.bsky.social · 04/06/2026
I spent a few months trying to get proficient in DAGs. I learned a few things about myself: -Thinking in terms of DAGs is not intuitive to me, even though it is visual -I rarely found that DAGs of complex phenomena helped me understand them. -I see the potential, but am on the outside looking in.
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Ryan Briggs @ryancbriggs.net · 22/05/2026
In the Fall I'll be teaching a new MA-level methods course entitled "Applied Statistical Evaluation of Development Projects". It will be 12 weeks, in R, and aimed around RCT evaluations. This is a draft outline. What am I missing? What seems redundant?
1. Course Introduction and Setup
 Course overview; installing RStudio; introduction to causal inference; ModernDive Chapters 1–2 for newcomers.
2. Data, Tidy Data, Wrangling, and Visualization
 Core R skills for importing, cleaning, reshaping, summarizing, and visualizing evaluation data.
3. Sampling, Uncertainty, and Inference 
Sampling variation, confidence intervals, hypothesis testing, and the logic of statistical uncertainty.
4. Difference in Means as Regression 
Equivalence between difference-in-means estimates and lm(y ~ treat); ATE as the treatment coefficient; control mean as the intercept; covariates for precision gains; simulations and re-analysis of Karlan–List charity data.
5. Interactions and Treatment Effect Heterogeneity 
Interaction terms, subgroup analysis, heterogeneous effects; simulations, Karlan–List charity data, and Thornton HIV data.
6. Standard Errors, Power, and Research Design 
Bias, variance, RMSE, clustering, power analysis, and how underpowered studies contribute to selection on significance and inflated estimates.
7. Noncompliance, Take-Up, and Instrumental Variables 
ITT, TOT, LATE, compliers etc, and randomized encouragement designs; Thornton HIV testing incentives; reading from The Effect Chapter 19 or Causal Inference: The Mixtape IV chapter.
8. Spillovers, Externalities, and Peer Effects
 How spillovers can bias experimental estimates; identifying, measuring, and interpreting spillover effects in development evaluations.
9. Pre-Analysis Plans, Measurement, and Cost-Effectiveness
 PAPs, outcome measurement, measurement error, index construction, and basic cost-effectiveness analysis.
10. Meta-Analysis and Evidence Aggregation 
Fixed-effect and random-effects meta-analysis; Bayesian meta-analysis using baggr; interpreting accumulated evidence across studies.
11. Case Study: Deworming Evidence I
 Critical re-analysis of the main deworming results; statistical interpretation; cost-effectiveness implications.
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Don Moynihan @donmoyn.bsky.social · 15/05/2026
New piece in Science: Sudden elimination of USAID grants triggered waves of violence in affected regions in Africa, undermining civic governance and fueling civic unrest. www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...
science.org
Aiding peace or conflict? The impact of USAID cuts on violence
Less than a week after its inauguration, the second Trump administration issued a blanket stop-work order for the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), the largest national human...
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Andrew Gordon @andrewgordon.bsky.social · 01/04/2026
New preprint out today (osf.io/preprints/ps...). We tested whether AI agents are actually infiltrating online surveys. Spoiler alert: they aren't Thread 🧵 [1/9]
osf.io
OSF
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Institute for Replication @i4replication.bsky.social · 01/04/2026
🧵1/ Our first meta-science paper (with 350+ coauthors) is published today in Nature. It presents one of the largest-ever reproducibility projects in economics & political science. Here’s what we found 👇
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Paul Clist @paulclist.bsky.social · 24/03/2026
This was fun - thanks to all the participants for great comments :)
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Michael Wiebe @michaelwiebe.bsky.social · 17/03/2026
Can AI detect the ten errors in Moretti 2021? I did a test of GPT5.2 vs GPT5.4 vs refine. Takeaway: current reasoning LLMs are useful, with room for improvement. 1/
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Michael Wiebe @michaelwiebe.bsky.social · 13/03/2026
🚨Replication alert🚨 I'm pleased to announce that my replication of Moretti (2021) is now accepted as a comment at AER. I find ten issues in the paper. My comment focuses on two major problems; in the appendix, I document eight (relatively) minor problems. 1/
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Justin Wolfers @justinwolfers.bsky.social · 18/02/2026
Super excited about this... I'm hiring a video editor to help bring economics to a mass audience (yes, really). If you're thoughtful, creative, and want to make complex ideas accessible, I'd love to see your work. Apply here: docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1F... Or share with your most amazing mates!
docs.google.com
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Ryan Briggs @ryancbriggs.net · 11/02/2026
It's ironic to see a discipline care **so much** about unbiasedness (causal inference!) at the level of a single test but then have a research production system and culture that is basically a ferocious bias generation machine. This is not good.
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Hetan Shah @hetanshah.bsky.social · 03/02/2026
‘Novice workers who rely heavily on AI to complete unfamiliar tasks may compromise their own skill acquisition… We find that AI use impairs conceptual understanding, code reading, and debugging abilities, without delivering significant efficiency gains on average.’ arxiv.org/pdf/2601.20245
Abstract
Al assistance produces significant productivity gains across professional domains, particularly for novice workers. Yet how this assistance affects the development of skills required to effectively supervise AI remains unclear. Novice workers who rely heavily on AI to complete unfamiliar tasks may compromise their own skill acquisition in the process. We conduct randomized experiments to study how developers gained mastery of a new asynchronous programming library with and without the assistance of Al.
We find that AI use impairs conceptual understanding, code reading, and debugging abilities, without delivering significant efficiency gains on average. Participants who fully delegated coding tasks showed some productivity improvements, but at the cost of learning the library. We identify six distinct AI interaction patterns, three of which involve cognitive engagement and preserve learning outcomes even when participants receive AI assistance. Our findings suggest that Al-enhanced productivity is not a shortcut to competence and AI assistance should be carefully adopted into workflows to preserve skill formation - particularly in safety-critical domains.
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Dan Neidle @danneidle.bsky.social · 02/02/2026
Who leaked this Number 10 discussion to Jeffrey Epstein? And are there consequences for the leaker? It’s an internal discussion re. getting markets moving in the aftermath of the financial crisis. No doubt of great interest to Epstein and his financial market clients.
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Oliver Hanney @olihanney.bsky.social · 22/01/2026
🆕 There's a growing body of evidence on the common misperceptions people have about the world. And it turns out that, across a bunch of different settings, correcting those misperceptions seems to be a very cheap way of improving society. Here are some examples: voxdev.org/topic/common...
voxdev.org
Common misperceptions: What people get wrong about the world and why it matters
What do people get wrong, i.e. misperceive, about the world? Why do misperceptions matter for economic development? How can fixing misperceptions benefit society?
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VoxDev @voxdev.bsky.social · 21/01/2026
New evidence from Africa shows that aid reduces conflict when projects are well managed, but increases violence when management and monitoring are weak. Read today's article to learn more:
Geographic distribution of conflict and aid quality
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Seema Jayachandran @seema.bsky.social · 15/01/2026
The Weiss Fund has a great new initiative for development economists on the PhD job market to support those taking up research positions in LMICs, offering supplementary income + research funds. Please share!
weissfund.uchicago.edu
Weiss Fellowship for Junior Researchers in Low- and Middle-Income Countries - Weiss Fund
The Weiss Fund Fellowship provides supplementary financial support for exceptional job market PhD candidates accepting positions in Weiss Fund-eligible countries and doing work aligned with the Weiss ...
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Dean Yang @deanyang.bsky.social · 14/01/2026
Check out our new VoxDevLit on International Migration! Thanks to co-editors @catiabatista.bsky.social, @econgaurav.bsky.social, @dmckenzie.bsky.social, @mushfiq-econ.bsky.social, & Caroline Theoharides! We look to working together on this "living literature review" in the years to come...
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Michael Clemens @mclem.org · 14/01/2026
These economists are unsurpassed in research on migration & development. Global authorities. Their new resource at @voxdev.bsky.social is a gift that will keep on giving —>
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Richard McElreath 🐈‍⬛ @rmcelreath.bsky.social · 12/01/2026
lolsob as I try for the 100th time to convince a biologist that differences in statistical significance are not significant
He initially focused on statistical errors but found problems involving images easier to communicate and harder for journal editors to ignore.

“Numerical understanding is very poor in biology,” he said. “But if I have a problem with an image, most people can sort of see: these two pictures shouldn’t be the same.”
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Justin Sandefur @justsand.bsky.social · 04/01/2026
For folks at the AEA meetings... Come hear us debate what we do and don't know about the impact of foreign aid.
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Jessica Leight @leightjessica.bsky.social · 05/01/2026
Kicking off 2026 w/ a list of my favorite published dev papers from 2025 #econtwitter #econsky! (Favorite, not best, because best is hard to define - but I loved these papers + learned a lot from them. by "2025", I mean in a journal volume last year)
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Paul Clist @paulclist.bsky.social · 19/12/2025
#econsky
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Paul Clist @paulclist.bsky.social · 19/12/2025
#econsky
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JCRE @jcre.bsky.social · 19/12/2025
New in JCRE: The Common Problem of Bad Controls in Tests of the Linguistic Savings Hypothesis. A Comment on Ayres et al. (PNAS, 2023) and related literature by Paul Clist @paulclist.bsky.social jcr-econ.org/the-common-p...
jcr-econ.org
The Common Problem of Bad Controls in Tests of the Linguistic Savings Hypothesis. A Comment on Ayres et al. (PNAS, 2023) and related literature – Journal of Comments and Replications in Economics
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Paul Clist @paulclist.bsky.social · 18/12/2025
Dice games are a popular way of measuring lying and cheating. There's a neat theory, called Justified Dishonesty, where people that observe counterfactuals 'swap' rolls, as they can cheat but feel honest. We explore that idea here: www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
sciencedirect.com
Dishonesty and justifications: Evidence from the second roll of a dice game
The widely-adopted die rolling experiment measures average lying behaviour. Its original design uses so-called control rolls; subjects should roll twi…
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