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Justin Sandefur

@justsand.bsky.social
5K followers 312 following 129 posts

Development economist, worrying about economic growth these days. www.openphilanthropy.org/about/team…

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Reposted by Justin Sandefur
Ryan Edwards @ryanbedwards.bsky.social · 05/01/2026
Two minor updates, friends: - As of 1 January 2026, I'm an Associate Professor. - As of today, the first paper I started writing on palm oil, about a decade ago, is in print in the Journal of International Economics. Read, share, cite. Open access: www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
sciencedirect.com
Export agriculture and rural poverty: Evidence from Indonesian palm oil
This paper measures the impacts of Indonesia’s palm oil export expansion on district poverty and household expenditure from 2002 to 2015. Identificati…
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Justin Sandefur @justsand.bsky.social · 04/01/2026
For folks at the AEA meetings... Come hear us debate what we do and don't know about the impact of foreign aid.
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Justin Sandefur @justsand.bsky.social · 28/12/2025
Two views of US strikes in Nigeria... FT reporting: They killed nobody. In the wrong state. WaPo editorial: Kudos to Trump for engaging, More, please!
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Charles Kenny @charlesjkenny.bsky.social · 16/12/2025
@justsand.bsky.social and I have updated our estimates of lives lost based on cuts to US foreign assistance spending through the end of the fiscal year. They look similar or worse than they did back in June: in the range of 500,000 to 1,000,000 people. www.cgdev.org/blog/update-...
cgdev.org
Update on Lives Lost from USAID Cuts
In this blog, we report on an update to our earlier estimates of the potential mortality impacts of the administration’s aid cuts. A similar approach to our original estimates using financial data to ...
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Michael Hobbes @michaelhobbes.bsky.social · 09/08/2025
My least popular (and most correct) view is that cars should be automatically limited to the local speed limit. Put the pedal to the floor and you still can't go over 25mph in a residential area. (15 in Manhattan btw)
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Justin Sandefur @justsand.bsky.social · 12/12/2025
New from Dev Patel, @arvind2011.bsky.social & me: "We were wrong about convergence." A few years back, we wrote a paper pointing out that Solow convergence had finally arrived. The developing world was catching up. Alas, it seems all good things come to an end. 1/
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Worst girl in Europe @hrisyana.bsky.social · 11/12/2025
Great thread touching on why *ONLY* using private inv is NOT the solution. To echo once again the msg: focusing solely on private inv does not create much room for other riskier options (which in many EMDEs means investing in long term sustainable solutions for climate change, gender equality, etc)
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Justin Sandefur @justsand.bsky.social · 09/12/2025
TOP: Household surveys ask women age 15-49 a lot more questions. BOTTOM: So enumerators appear to drop them, non-randomly. Adjusting for this "[calls] into question whether Africa’s fertility transition is as uniquely slow as previously thought." economics.yale.edu/sites/defau...
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Justin Sandefur @justsand.bsky.social · 05/12/2025
Striking how uniquely exposed to Trump's tariffs India is: - 33% effective tariff rate (among the highest now) - 19% of exports went to US last year (not Mexico, but high-ish)
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Charles Kenny @charlesjkenny.bsky.social · 03/12/2025
Manufacturing for export has been the major path for rapid growth in developing countries. How is the World Bank's private sector arm the IFC doing in supporting that model? Not so good.
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Justin Sandefur @justsand.bsky.social · 02/12/2025
Hello! I'm starting a new blog/newsletter thing. First post is about aid and growth, and what I think is missing from the renewed enthusiasm in DC to subsidize private investment in developing countries: i.e., export discipline. 1/
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Justin Sandefur @justsand.bsky.social · 26/11/2025
It feels weird to me for the World Bank to focus on psychological training to make Togolese people better entrepreneurs but... it does seem to work. New in the AER:
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Justin Sandefur @justsand.bsky.social · 26/11/2025
I'm constantly confused by people who see a higher poverty line as a progressive goal, as opposed to shifting focus away from the 40% of the world living on <1/10th of that amount. $100k (PPP) for a family of 4 = 99.99th percentile in India = 99th percentile in China = 93rd percentile in the world
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Justin Sandefur @justsand.bsky.social · 23/11/2025
Why aren't there more big, labor-intensive firms in poor countries? Answer here: bigger firms use more white-color workers who are in shorter supply in poorer countries.
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Alexander Berger @albrgr.bsky.social · 18/11/2025
Some news: Open Philanthropy is now Coefficient Giving! Our mission is unchanged but the new name reflects our growing work with other donors to multiply the impact of their giving. 🧵 on our work to make philanthropy a more efficient "market" and plans going forward:
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Nancy Birdsall @nbirdsall.bsky.social · 06/11/2025
Accessible to all! ...my paper in Journal of Econ Perspectives on World Bank's 1993 East Asian "Miracle" report ("Too Much A Product of Its TIme?") (www.aeaweb.org/full_issue.p...). @cgdev.org @mclem.org @arvind2011.bsky.social @justsand.bsky.social
aeaweb.org
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Paddy Carter @paddycarter.bsky.social · 24/10/2025
this is a whopper - 600+ pages - but the intro by Besley and Velasco is short easy reading. Is this really the mainstream consensus? A lot of big names are in here, and other big names give positive blubs. If so, it differs from the "mainstream" econ of the popular imagination.
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Justin Sandefur @justsand.bsky.social · 22/10/2025
Book launch day -- congrats to @arvind2011.bsky.social & Devesh Kapur! The book is full of data and historical vignettes, but more importantly, really challenges a lot of received wisdom about India's development trajectory. Must read.
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Alexander Berger @albrgr.bsky.social · 21/10/2025
New @devex.com article, ft. @justsand.bsky.social, on our our $40m fund to accelerate economic growth in low- and middle-income countries, including a great explanation of hits-based vs. GiveWell-style philanthropic giving www.devex.com/news/as-aid...
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Justin Wolfers @justinwolfers.bsky.social · 23/09/2025
Every time I talk with @mclem.org about the economics of immigration, I come away a whole lot smarter. You can enjoy the same experience: He's written a fantastic primer on what the data reveals about the effect of slashing H-1B visas. It's a banger. Read it. www.piie.com/blogs/realti...
piie.com
New US curb on high-skill immigrant workers ignores evidence of its likely harms
President Donald Trump on Friday ordered an unprecedented new restriction on lawful immigration to the US by high-skill workers. Starting Sunday, new applications for H-1B visas required payment of an...
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Justin Sandefur @justsand.bsky.social · 23/09/2025
America's offer to Africa: Trade not aid! But also, no more trade preferences.
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Charlie Robertson @frontiercharlie.bsky.social · 15/09/2025
Botswana credit rating downgraded from BBB+ to BBB, still one notch above the lowest investment grade rating of BBB-. Botswana started with a A rating in 2001 from S&P, cut to A- after the global financial crisis and to BBB+ during COVID The external shock hitting Botswana now is very specific
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Justin Sandefur @justsand.bsky.social · 08/09/2025
Tourists sun by the pool overlooking the high court next door, where Tanzania’s opposition leader — previously shot 16 times — is being tried for treason. A metaphor perhaps for the international community’s response to Tanzania’s democratic backsliding.
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Christina Proenza-Coles @proenzacoles.bsky.social · 31/08/2025
“For all intents and purposes, Nkrumah paralleled Mahatma Gandhi and Martin Luther King Jr. in his reach and influence. That little is known about him outside of Africa and African diasporic communities is a reflection of the continued marginalization of the continent in the Western imagination.”
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Maia @maiamindel.bsky.social · 26/08/2025
Emergency 1:30 am blog post: Trump tried to fire a Federal Reserve governor. It’s really bad, not just for the United States, but for everyone else. To start Tuesday off on a positive, cheerful note! open.substack.com/pub/someunpl...
open.substack.com
Today Is Our Dependence Day
There's not going to be an independent Fed you stupid slut
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Claudia Sahm @claudia-sahm.bsky.social · 21/08/2025
“I have no intention of being bullied to step down from my position because of some questions raised in a tweet,” Cook said. www.bloomberg.com/news/article... Amen.
bloomberg.com
Fed’s Cook Says She Won’t Be Bullied Into Stepping Down
Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook signaled her intention to remain at the central bank in defiance of calls for her resignation by President Donald Trump over allegations of mortgage fraud.
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Justin Sandefur @justsand.bsky.social · 14/08/2025
My experience is if you send Mauricio a half-baked idea, he might just code it up for you and send back a TeX file. Dunno if it’ll work with him as an editor, but worth trying at least…
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Todd Pugatch @toddpugatch.bsky.social · 11/08/2025
School feeding program in Rwanda yields 11x return on investment academic.oup.com/jae/article-...
academic.oup.com
School Feeding and Cognitive Performance in Rwanda
Abstract. Using unique administrative data on test scores from a high stake national exam for primary school students in Rwanda, we evaluate the impact of
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Justin Sandefur @justsand.bsky.social · 01/08/2025
Lesotho was one of the biggest successes of AGOA -- which meant 'liberation day' hit particularly hard. Little early to see this in the trade data, but doesn't look great. NYT reporting factories shuttered. People going from $7/day factory jobs to $1/day hawking on the street.
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Centre for Economic Policy Research @cepr.org · 09/07/2025
@charlesjkenny.bsky.social & @justsand.bsky.social ‬focus on the impact that US foreign aid budget cuts & freezes will have on the field of public #health and find that approx 1/2 million lives will be lost each year mainly from a lack of HIV drugs & vaccinations. cepr.org/publications... #EconSky
World map of the lives saved by US foreign aid per year.
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Charles Kenny @charlesjkenny.bsky.social · 10/06/2025
Blog by @justsand.bsky.social and me: A Million Lives at Risk? White House proposing a two-thirds cut to global health and humanitarian funding. Using estimates of costs per life saved for US global health and humanitarian assistance suggests the cuts could lead to one million deaths.
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Michael Clemens @mclem.org · 21/05/2025
They're terminating OPT. Today the nominee to head USCIS stated directly: he will end Optional Practical Training, the single largest channel for high-skill immigrants to work in the US. 6 weeks ago I warned about this & summarized the research on impacts of this drastic action—> @piie.com
piie.com
Skilled immigration on the chopping block? Effects of eliminating "Optional Practical Training" in the US
The White House has taken numerous steps to sharply reduce the number of immigrant workers, with or without legal status, in the US economy. These policies, so far, typically target immigrants with le...
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Justin Sandefur @justsand.bsky.social · 18/05/2025
Some personal/professional news... After 14 (!) years, this was my last week at @cgdev.org Posted a longer thread on the other site, and will share more later on what's next. For now, just want to say thank you.
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Center for Global Development @cgdev.org · 08/05/2025
The Trump admin’s FY2026 budget proposes deep cuts to US dev. & humanitarian aid, reflecting a shift in global engagement. @ecollinson.bsky.social & @justinrhurley.bsky.social highlight a key choice for Congress: endorse this retreat or pursue a more balanced approach ⬇️ bit.ly/3Z8LIRU
bit.ly
Redefining America’s Interests? Trump’s FY2026 Budget Proposes Sweeping Cuts to US Foreign Aid
The Trump administration unveiled an overview of its FY2026 budget request on Friday. While short on details, the document offers a grim forecast for US development and humanitarian spending. In seeki...
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Michael Clemens @mclem.org · 08/05/2025
This is accurate. As @charlesjkenny.bsky.social of @cgdev.org has noted, the data we have support the conclusion that the reckless and illegal obliteration of USAID will cause deaths worldwide, particularly of children. —> www.marketplace.org/story/2025/0...
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Charles Kenny @charlesjkenny.bsky.social · 02/05/2025
I think a hugely effective form of altruism at the moment is ensuring all potential legal challenges to aid cuts are fully funded and staffed with great lawyers. www.afge.org/local/l1444/...
afge.org
MCC Defense Fund
The American Federation of Government Employees (AFGE) is the largest federal employee union representing 820,000 federal and D.C. government workers nationwide and overseas.
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Paddy Carter @paddycarter.bsky.social · 30/04/2025
a very interesting write-up of the world's largest poverty alleviation programme, implemented in China starting 2014. Blog version: www.voxchina.org/show-3-391.h... In contrast to other "multifaceted" anti-poverty interventions (i.e. voxdev.org/topic/social... ) it included industrial promotion
voxchina.org
The Effects of a Multifaceted Poverty-Alleviation Program on Rural Income and Household Behavior in China
This study examines the effects of a government-led, large-scale, multifaceted poverty-alleviation program on rural income in China. We find that the program has a positive impact on national key poor...
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Sam Eyler-Driscoll 🍉🌻🍁 @sameyler.bsky.social · 29/04/2025
TIL Argentina gets **one-third** of all IMF loans
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Michael Clemens @mclem.org · 31/03/2025
The illegal obliteration of USAID, an independent agency established and funded by Congress, will cause hundreds of thousands of deaths per year. That is a conservative reading of expert analysis by @charlesjkenny.bsky.social & @justsand.bsky.social of @cgdev.org —> www.cgdev.org/blog/how-man...
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Josh Marshall @joshtpm.bsky.social · 29/03/2025
Was speaking with a USAID person yesterday explaining how at any other time countless phone lines wld be buzzing, working groups stood up, go-teams and aid being dispatched to after the Myanmar quake. Now ... nothing.
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Justin Sandefur @justsand.bsky.social · 27/03/2025
Make America Great Again by slashing basic health services in the Congo. Hopefully Congress doesn't take these numbers as given.
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Justin Sandefur @justsand.bsky.social · 25/03/2025
The Economist joins the call here to accelerate malaria vaccine rollout — citing our work on prioritizing R21 for both speed and cost. www.economist.com/middle-east-...
economist.com
A faster rollout of malaria vaccines would save many lives
But someone needs to pay for it—and aid budgets are being slashed
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Michael Clemens @mclem.org · 20/03/2025
New estimates of the effects of the US Administration's obliteration of our Congressionally-mandated development assistance agency, from the brilliant @charlesjkenny.bsky.social and @justsand.bsky.social of @cgdev.org —>
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Charles Kenny @charlesjkenny.bsky.social · 20/03/2025
New Estimates of the USAID Cuts with @justsand.bsky.social ~36% of contracts by value have been terminated, including potentially all awards in sectors including private sector competitiveness, higher education, and political competition & consensus building.
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Lee Crawfurd @leecrawfurd.bsky.social · 13/03/2025
Don't give up on foreign aid just yet - despite huge cuts from many donors there's still a lot of money on the table and still broad public support. We just need to make a better case for aid effectiveness www.cgdev.org/blog/dont-gi...
cgdev.org
Don’t Give Up On Aid Just Yet
Headlines on aid and global development are grim right now. The decimation of USAID has been swiftly followed by major cuts announced in the UK, and smaller cuts planned from a raft of European donors...
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Nick Kristof @nickkristof.bsky.social · 15/03/2025
Elon Musk says that no one has died because he slashed humanitarian aid. I went to South Sudan to check if that's true. It's not. Meet Peter, Achol and Evan, ages 10, 8 and 5. The reckless actions of the world's richest men are killing the world's poorest kids www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
nytimes.com
Opinion | Musk Said No One Has Died Since Aid Was Cut. That Isn’t True. (Gift Article)
A journey through the front lines of global poverty shows that when the world’s richest men slash aid for the world’s poorest children, the result is sickness, starvation and death.
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Justin Sandefur @justsand.bsky.social · 16/03/2025
Each dot represents 10 people whose lives depend on US foreign aid, just for HIV prevention & treatment. Without it, 1.6m people could die *per year*.
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Aaron Reichlin-Melnick @reichlinmelnick.bsky.social · 03/03/2025
This is a loudly blown whistle.
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Stefan Dercon @gamblingondev.bsky.social · 27/02/2025
Centre for the Study of African Economies at University of Oxford will automatically consider all applicants from Africa for full funding for the MPhil in Economics - we have new scholarships for eligible students. How? Just apply asap: deadline 4th March (extended deadline): see below
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Atul Gawande @agawande.bsky.social · 27/02/2025
Rubio terminated 5800 USAID contracts – more than 90% of its foreign aid programs – in defiance of the courts. Here’s a list of just some of the lifesaving awards that were terminated. Nearly all were Congressionally mandated. They’ve saved millions of lives. 🧵
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