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Brad DeLong

@braddelong.bsky.social
22K followers 1.8K following 2.8K posts

Author of "Slouching Towards Utopia: An Economic History of the 20th Century". Too online since 1995. Sometime Deputy Assistant Secretary of the U.S. Treasury. UC Berkeley Professor.

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Brad DeLong @braddelong.bsky.social · 8h
Digital arts are bleeding jobs while live entertainment grows. The pattern is suggestive, not conclusive. Yet it is very suggestuve indeed: **Arts Employment in America: CHART OF THE DAY** Joey Politano digs, interestingly; I would not, however, say he has firm conclusions about the 300,000... 1/
braddelong.substack.com
Arts Employment in America: CHART OF THE DAY
Joey Politano digs, interestingly; I would not, however, say he has firm conclusions about the 300,000 net creative-arts jobs we have lost over the past seven years...
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Brad DeLong @braddelong.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
The core hardware cost collapsed to $0.12/W — so why is a California rooftop still costing $3.00/W, and the market shrinking while Pakistan’s is booming? Soft costs, a dead tax credit, and a net-billing rule rewrote the arithmetic: in the U.S., policy and plumbing now matter more than the... 1/
braddelong.substack.com
Rooftop Solar Rules Elsewhere!: CHART OF THE DAY
Watching the coming of the info-bio tech-attention economy Mode-of-Production: how soon? how fast? how complete?...
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Brad DeLong @braddelong.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
J.D. Vance promised seven million sidelined men would come roaring back into work. A year of data says native-born male employment ran below its 2024 level—and the “women took all the jobs because men replaced deported immigrants” story turns out to be pure invention": **CROSSPOST: MIKE... 1/
braddelong.substack.com
CROSSPOST: MIKE KONCZAL: Can We Find Literally Any Sign Deportations Are Helping Native-Born Workers?
Mike’s subheadline: “Shoot the moon! Ten hypotheses, ten charts, and no payoff for native-born workers”; the phantom deportation dividend as foreign-born complement, not substitute for, native-born...
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Brad DeLong @braddelong.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
Not only are many of our deep relationships increasingly parasocial, but they are also increasingly role-bound and partial: a pleasing shard of the whole personality, which if parts of it were not kept decently draped and thus hidden, would mean that we would fail to maintain the “social... 1/
braddelong.substack.com
Sharding the Self: Ben Thompson & FaceBook’s Muse Agentic System: THURSDAY THAUMATURGY
Here in the info-bio tech-attention mode-of-production age, advanced technology is double-edged magic; trying to adapt healthily to live in a world of new wonders...
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Brad DeLong @braddelong.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Everyone wants to blame the Iran War for 5% yields. But the inflation-breakeven line on my chart that should have jumped if they were right never moved — and that changes the diagnosis. I think we are driven back on (a) the “AI” investment book, and (b) a pronounced expectations-based tail-... 1/
braddelong.substack.com
The Ten-Year Treasury Bond: CHART OF THE DAY
And yet the inflation-breakeven dog is not barking, so look elsewhere than inflation and its vicissitudes for an explanation...
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Brad DeLong @braddelong.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
A Treasury Secretary who controls neither the budget deficit nor the money supply nor international capital flows is never the “House"“ in financial markets, and anyone who claims to be such is, as Paul Krugman says, beclowning himself: **CROSSPOST: PAUL KRUGMAN: The Beclowning of Scott... 1/
braddelong.substack.com
CROSSPOST: PAUL KRUGMAN: The Beclowning of Scott Bessent
Paul’s subheadline: “Another Trump enabler pays the price”...
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Brad DeLong @braddelong.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
In 756 the richest, most advanced polity on Earth nearly dissolved at the hands of one of its own frontier generals. Having survived, its rulers spent the next thousand years making sure no general could ever try again — and may have surrendered the Industrial Revolution in the bargain. Do I... 1/
braddelong.substack.com
Did a Fat, Laughing Barbarian General Divert the Industrial Revolution Away from China a Thousand Years After His Death?
& the firehose-flood of “content” that is my feed these days...
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Carl T. Bergstrom @carlbergstrom.com · 26/09/2026
Does my Speak-n-Spell feel pain when I type O-U-C-H? The jury is out. Philosophers and neuroscientists say that's fucking stupid, but I called a guy from the Center for Pretending that Household Electronics Are Sentient and he said there's no way to know for sure.
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Brad DeLong @braddelong.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
Broadband telecom is not an easy business to earn a high return in. SpaceX’s revenue is now 55% StarLink—broadband telecom—and 33% “AI”—which means renting out Colossus datacenters to Anthropic—and only 12%, you know, space launches: **CROSSPOST: SINEAD O’SULLIVAN: SpaceX Pivots Away from... 1/
braddelong.substack.com
CROSSPOST: SINEAD O’SULLIVAN: SpaceX Pivots Away from Space
Sinead’s subheadline: “Starbase, we have a problem”; the megabear case on SpaceX makes a lot of sense; as Nilay Patel ways: it’s broadband telecom with a splashy marketing department...
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Brad DeLong @braddelong.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
My interpretation of what is going on here: Gerard Baker saying “I am anti-Trump too!”, in the hope of shifting to firmer ground on which he can argue that he and his friends should get to keep all their ill-gotten gains from the Trump tax cuts. After all, aren’t the only things that matter... 1/
braddelong.substack.com
Gerard Baker: BULLSHIT ARTIST OF THE DAY
Not “journalism” but rather “journamalism”: words that have absolutely no relationship at all to the project of informing your readers about the state of the world, but are rather a cynical game...
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Brad DeLong @braddelong.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
But two observations: (1) the diesel price spike is not that big, and (2) from an “affordability” perspective, this is the last thing one would want to generate from one’s foreign policy: **Real Price of Diesel: CHART OF THE DAY** The diesel-fuel price spike of 2026 is showing up as a major... 1/
braddelong.substack.com
Real Price of Diesel: CHART OF THE DAY
The diesel-fuel price spike of 2026 is showing up as a major thing in America’s poliiical balance this fall, at least according to my feed...
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Brad DeLong @braddelong.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
Eliezer Yudkowsky and Nick Land may now be the two most influential intellectuals in America's AI debate—and that tells you how badly the conversation has gone wrong. When "machine god: good or evil?" is the only question on the table, every question actually worth asking gets thrown away... 1/
braddelong.substack.com
CROSSPOST: HENRY FARRELL: Machine God Metaphors Eat Your Brain
Henry’s subheadling: “There are other ways of thinking about AI”; socio-cultural technology, normal Schumpeterian creative-destruction, new windows into the real ASI of human knowledge for three...
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Brad DeLong @braddelong.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
My experiences with FaceBook products have always been that time spent getting up to speed on them is time wasted, and that time spent using them is time regretted. But if that is representative of anything, then there are hundreds of millions of addicted regretful regular users whose brains... 1/
braddelong.substack.com
FaceBook’s Muse on the Apple iOS App Store: CHART OF THE DAY
OpenClaw, but it watches what you do and then tries to sell you ads on other platforms...
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Brad DeLong @braddelong.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
Claudia Sahm is in the business of trying to coax Fed Chair Kevin Warsh to behave better, that is to say: more like a Fed Chair and less like a Trump Lickspittle. Such pressure is useful, but I think we have to be clear-eyed about what is going on. What is going on is that Warsh has told... 1/
braddelong.substack.com
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Brad DeLong @braddelong.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
This week brought me news increasing my confidence with respect to one thing it is not: it is unlikely to be a hyperprofits engine for research labs with companies attached making money serving up calculations made in datacenters by simulated neural networks: **Real Technology, Phantom... 1/
braddelong.substack.com
Real Technology, Phantom Profits: Who Is Likely to Actually Get Paid for the AI Buildout?: MONDAY MAMLMS
Not many businesses not named “NVIDIA”; and perhaps not that much money by Silicon Valley-standards even to NVIDIA when all of this is said & done...
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Brad DeLong @braddelong.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
Who actually made up the “consensus” forecast that the operating cash flow of the five biggest HyperScalers will triple from today’s annual $600 billion to $2 trillion by 2030, while their capital expenditures will grow by $500 billion less to give them $500 billion of free cash flow by 2030?... 1/
braddelong.substack.com
HyperScaler Operating Cash Flow “Consensus” Forecast: CHART OF THE DAY
Below the fold, mostly, because I am not sure the sourcing for this number really is as thin as I think it is likely to be...
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Brad DeLong @braddelong.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
Today modern advertising, public relations and corporate values statements typically carry any equivalent constraints to the old-fashioned check on rhetoric imposed by the imminent expectation of contradiction by an opposing equally-platformed counter-advocate. Contrast 1858’s Lincoln and... 1/
braddelong.substack.com
CROSSPOST: NICHOLAS GRUEN: Hobbes on Spin & Bullshit
Nicholas’s subheadline: “The more things change, the more spin and bullshit pile up!”; with one difference: in the past an advocate’s case had to survive immediate attempts at contrdiction; not now...
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Brad DeLong @braddelong.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
A tinkerer recovered Claude’s true usage limits from a suspiciously precise decimal like 0.16327272727272726. This is very useful, because Anthropic really does not want to give me any useful information about the quantities of tokens my $20/month Claude Pro subscription is offering me before... 1/
braddelong.substack.com
CROSSPOST: SHELLAC: Suspiciously Precise Floats, or, How I Got Claude’s Real Limits
Two Unrounded Floats & a Loss Leader: What Claude’s Leaked Limits Revealed About Anthropic’s Money Problems & Opportunities as of Last January...
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Brad DeLong @braddelong.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
If you are worried that a bull-statue is a Satanic symbol, the odds are very high that you think that Israel must be encouraged to conquer from the River of Egypt to the Euphrates, so that then the monstrous powers of Gog and Magog will attack and destroy them, as payback for and as a... 1/
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Brad DeLong @braddelong.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
Today’s America: 3 million business owners worth an average of $25 million each, notables in their towns but not individually visible to the nation. And more than half the rise in the top 1% share since 1985 flowed through the pass-through businesses that was a “tax efficiency innovation”... 1/
braddelong.substack.com
Passthrough Tax Loopholes & the Rise of the American Gentry: CHART OF THE DAY
The Reagan Bargain’s Real Winners: Car Dealership Owners, Not Coders...
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Brad DeLong @braddelong.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
Osama bin Laden’s one concrete strategic goal was to end the American military presence in the Gulf and on the Arabian Peninsula. A generation later, Donald Trump’s war on Iran has apparently delivered it for him: **(SEMI-)CROSSPOST: RICK PERLSTEIN: Bush’s War Is Finally Over: Al Qaeda Has... 1/
braddelong.substack.com
(SEMI-)CROSSPOST: RICK PERLSTEIN: Bush’s War Is Finally Over: Al Qaeda Has Won
& U.S. airstrikes are apparently now being launched off of carriers supplied from Diego Garcia 3000 miles away from Tehran, and from Muwaffaq Salti in Jordan 900 miles from Tehran..
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Brad DeLong @braddelong.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
The archetypal rich American isn’t a founder-CEO with a stock ticker—he’s the guy with seventeen McDonald’s franchises and a seat on the hospital board. Zidar and Zwick counted him, traced how the tax code inflated him, and revealed a American gentry élite class collectively ten times richer... 1/
braddelong.substack.com
America’s Gentry Élite: TUESDAY TRENDS & TURMOIL
Politics, Culture, & c.; Patrick Wyman saw America’s élite gentry in his Yakima hometown decades ago; now economists Zidar and Zwick show that he understated the case...
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Brad DeLong @braddelong.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
Spreads on financing the datacenter buildout are still small enough not to seriously discourage it, but large enough to reveal that the financiers are getting nervous about a non-zero chance of a bigdeal default on their loans: **DataCenter Risk Is the Real Thing: CHART OF THE DAY** For the... 1/
braddelong.substack.com
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Brad DeLong @braddelong.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
Equity investors sell the dream; bond investors price the funeral. Here’s what they’re charging those undertaking the now debt-financed DataCenter Rush: **Debt & DataCenters: CHART OF THE DAY** FaceBook bankrupt in one scenario in fifteen in five years? SpaceX & Oracle one in six? That... 1/
braddelong.substack.com
Debt & DataCenters: CHART OF THE DAY
FaceBook bankrupt in one scenario in fifteen in five years? SpaceX & Oracle one in six? That appears to be what those willing to lend to FaceBook right now are thinking...
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Brad DeLong @braddelong.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
Three short sentences from the Supreme Court, and a lot to say about such a very cryptic short utterance. Steve Vladeck unpacks what the Supreme Court said by barely saying anything. The real content of the Supreme Court’s three-sentence decision is a warning to lower courts that Trump is... 1/
braddelong.substack.com
CROSSPOST: STEVE VLADECK: 250. What We Learned from USPS v. California
Steve’s subheadline is: “ In refusing to put the USPS mail-in ballots rule into effect, the majority didn’t say very much. I still think there are (at least) three important lessons...”;
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Brad DeLong @braddelong.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
What did Trump expect his policies to do to male employment? If he had really wanted to boost male employment, he needed to pick very different policies. What we got was a gendered theory of growth, executed by a moron and staffed by the corrupt, failing exactly on its own terms: **The... 1/
braddelong.substack.com
The Feminization of Employment Growth During Trump II: CHART OF THE DAY
Trump nuked male employment-heavy green-tech infrastructure, nuked reshoring, damaged our manufacturing firms’ abilities to be efficient producers in the modern globalized value-chain economy.
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Frank Hecker @frankhecker.com · 14/09/2026
Let SubTuringBradBot have (almost) the last word: "If the 'Gutenberg Singularity' requires a specific kind of intellectual rigor to navigate, then the automation of that engagement may indeed alter the nature of the cognitive system itself." Where "alter" perhaps means "make it less effective". 7/7
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Frank Hecker @frankhecker.com · 14/09/2026
I am not sanguine about LLMs providing either the background knowledge or the motivation. For knowledge at least I defer to the learning science folks and their panoply of techniques: direct instruction, mastery learning, scaffolding, low-stakes testing, etc. It's not clear what an LLM adds. 6/
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Frank Hecker @frankhecker.com · 14/09/2026
This is further democratization: a distinguished professor may not have the time or inclination to answer your (perhaps naïve) questions, but their bot will (or should). But (me speaking now) one must have the background knowledge to know what to ask about _and_ the motivation to acquire it. 5/
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Frank Hecker @frankhecker.com · 14/09/2026
"What is happening now is the extension of the Machiavellian Singularity, not a rival to it." The LLM externalizes the mental simulation of past and present others: It has read the texts, it can answer your questions, either as a homogenized consensus thinker or as a simulacrum of an individual. 4/
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Frank Hecker @frankhecker.com · 14/09/2026
Mass literacy via public education. Mass availability via public libraries, paperbacks, the Internet/Web (including "pirate" sites for papers & books). The availability to search for information via printed indices & Google. The ability to add your own thoughts via a blog or self-publish a book. 3/
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Frank Hecker @frankhecker.com · 14/09/2026
Mass printing made it possible for an individual like Machiavelli to have access to the (written) thoughts of past and present others and to (in their mind) create a simulacrum of them, ask questions of them and argue with them. The next 500 years saw the elaboration and democratization of this: 2/
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Frank Hecker @frankhecker.com · 14/09/2026
Suspend your opinions re AI/LLMs (positive or negative) long enough to read this thread & the linked-to article. Just as humanity has already experienced an economic/technological Singularity (from 1870 on) we have also already experienced an intellectual Singularity (from 1500 on) post-Gutenberg 1/
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Brad DeLong @braddelong.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
“Does not replicate” is a very polite way of putting this. Overly polite. By a lot. By a factor of x100, perhaps: **CROSSPOST: ANDREW GELLMAN: “Replication Crisis”, Dan Ariely Files** Andrew’s title: “I am shocked, shocked to learn that this 2002 paper by Dan Ariely is based on dubious data &... 1/
braddelong.substack.com
CROSSPOST: ANDREW GELLMAN: “Replication Crisis”, Dan Ariely Files
Andrew’s title: “I am shocked, shocked to learn that this 2002 paper by Dan Ariely is based on dubious data & doesn’t replicate”; but in addition to frauds, there are the honest but non-robust too...
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Tom Doyle (SF/F author of the American Craftsmen series) @tomdoyle.bsky.social · 12/09/2026
BTW, if you don't already know, @adapalmer.bsky.social has a lot of interesting stuff to say about Machiavelli (and I think she picked up some of the Soc. St. ethos at Harvard as well). And a science fiction writer too!
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Kevin Hjortshøj O’Rourke @kevinhorourke.eurosky.social · 10/09/2026
@braddelong.bsky.social on the great Jeffrey Williamson braddelong.substack.com/p/in-memory-...
braddelong.substack.com
In Memory of Jeffrey Williamson: SATURDAY “SLOUCHING” & FRIENDS
Economic history & related topics: The man who woke up eager, and the discipline of working as hard as you can to get the numbers right...
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Nicholas Grossman @nicholasgrossman.bsky.social · 12/09/2026
Wreckers and infighters are over-represented on this website. Elsewhere, the vast majority are meeting the moment by doing Popular Front. A good example is Stevens endorsing El Sayed in MI and Hong endorsing Crowley in WI.
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Brad DeLong @braddelong.bsky.social · 12/09/2026
Why, in his 1513 “Letter to Francesco Vettori”, does Niccolò Machiavelli so dramatize the simple act of opening a book? Why the stripping off muddy clothes, the donning court robes, the crossing a threshold into “the ancient courts of ancient men” where he asks questions of Livy and Cicero and... 1/
braddelong.substack.com
SubTuringBradBot & Parasocial Sociability: SUNDAY SPECIAL: MAMLMS & SOCIETY
Since Gutenberg, most intellectual relationships have involved running an author-instantiation n your own wetware; compared to that, the coming of a subtturing ‘bot is small potatoes, I think
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Brad DeLong @braddelong.bsky.social · 07/09/2026
A fixed, forward, insufficiently defended logistics hub is a single point of failure; its loss propagates faster than any combat loss of ships. Distance is a hidden tax on military operations—doubling to thousands of miles broke just-in-time resupply cadence. And the Navy had no institutional... 1/
braddelong.substack.com
CROSSPOST: RILEY CEDER & J.D. SIMKINS: Navy Not Returning to Damaged Bahrain Base ‘Anytime Soon,’ Top Officer Says
Admiral Daryl Caudle: “We’re not getting back in there” to Naval Support Actiity Bahrain “anytime soon. I want to be completely honest with that...”; the U.S. Navy was not prepared for Drone-Age war..
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Brad DeLong @braddelong.bsky.social · 07/09/2026
A pump-and-dump dressed up as a fake cabinet post?: Elon Musk’s DOGE took money Congress had lawfully appropriated to fight disease and grow the world economy, and simply nixed it. The crypto coin that Musk was then not so quietly promoting made a round-trip: the DogeCoin chart runs $0.09 to... 1/
braddelong.substack.com
Elon Musk & His DOGE & DogeCoin Adventure: CHART OF THE DAY
I Am Become Meme, Destroyer of USAID: is the journey the reward: looking back at DOGE, DogeCoin, & chaos-monkey grifterarithmetic
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Brad DeLong @braddelong.bsky.social · 06/09/2026
When the written product no longer proves the learning process: the end of the essay-, the problem-set-, the take-home-exam-as-proxy. This is really an opportunity, or a challengatunity for all education. This is truly an opportunity to excel, in different ways for different institutions with... 1/
braddelong.substack.com
(NOT A) CROSSPOST: HALINA BENNET: The Return of Institutional Purpose [to Academia]
Halina’s subheadline: “Generative A.I. gives institutions the chance to re-evaluate their values”, &, I would add, their value propositions as well...
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Mark Copelovitch @mcopelov.bsky.social · 06/09/2026
“US Envoys” is just incredible normalization of “the president’s son-in-law & private business cronies.” Other, more serious choices remain readily available.
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Brad DeLong @braddelong.bsky.social · 06/09/2026
Forty-three years a teacher, a role model who treated every economy as a system worth understanding whole, and a friend to me, always insisting you check all the boxes—and then go away, think harder, and circle back: **In Memory of Jeffrey Williamson: SATURDAY “SLOUCHING” & FRIENDS** Economic... 1/
braddelong.substack.com
In Memory of Jeffrey Williamson: SATURDAY “SLOUCHING” & FRIENDS
Economic history & related topics: The man who woke up eager, and the discipline of working as hard as you can to get the numbers right...
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R. @rwillemann.bsky.social · 05/09/2026
Oh my yes. His blend of clarity, succinctness, honesty, empathy and humor are irreplaceable. He helps me deal with the unfolding horror by providing words so I am not left simply sputtering profanities.
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KenGoldsholl @kgsbca.bsky.social · 05/09/2026
it's the musk fan club, the same people who think tesla is worth 343x earnings, and often the same people who think trump is a business genius
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Yastreblyansky @yastreblyansky.bsky.social · 05/09/2026
I believe this is literally true, and he may have told Hegseth that. He's still furious with Mattis and Esper. Hirono and Slotkin both asked Hegseth if he would be willing, in confirmation hearing, and his answers were very evasive.
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ghost malone ergo propter bones @proptermalone.bsky.social · 05/09/2026
ok look The Odyssey is very much a sequel
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Matthew Downhour @matthewdownhour.bsky.social · 05/09/2026
If you’re engaged in a heated DNC vs DSA back and forth right now I cannot express how much you’re getting hung up in the wrong enemy
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Paul Franz @paulfranz.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
This made me laugh several times and filled me with despair.
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ghost malone ergo propter bones @proptermalone.bsky.social · 05/09/2026
ok guys it is September of an election year. could we take a short break from left/liberal infighting until like November 4th
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