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Patrick Osgood

@patrickosgood.bsky.social
2.3K followers 603 following 3.1K posts

MENA geopolitical risk | one warm day is all I really need | usual caveats re ♥️ & 🔁

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Reposted by Patrick Osgood
Padraig Reidy @padraigreidy.bsky.social · 14h
“So, England captain Harry Kane. 7-0? You’ve got to be pleased with that.
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corpsepaint boothoughts @allwrongthink.bsky.social · 17h
Arrested development:
Well did it work for those people?
No, it never does. I mean, these people somehow delude themselves into thinking it might, but...
but it might work for us.
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rev. howard arson @theophite.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
this is exactly my opinion. there may be a superstrate of extremely difficult and unique safety problems around AI, but the substrate is simply that no one takes basic precautions seriously becasue they imagine (or pretend to imaigne) that it is futile, and basic precautions slow down launches.
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flyingrodent @flyingrodent.bsky.social · 21h
The press have decided to reimpose the two party model and unfortunately, that requires “pretending to believe Kemi Badenoch is doing a good job”. Which is pretty bad, given she’s a disastrously online wacko.
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Patrick Osgood @patrickosgood.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
"What we want to see is that people who work harder don't get punished for doing so," Badenoch. An uncanny ability to be nasty
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Stephen C. Rea @stevierea.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
The “ceasefire” will be one year old next week. Since then, Israeli strikes have killed more than 1400 Gazans
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Patrick Osgood @patrickosgood.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
Hello I’m mental and want bad things for you, personally
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elia ayoub @ayoub.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
Former spokesperson for the state of Israel Eylon Levy. They have murdered so many journalists that this counts as humour
Eylon Levy: “I'm quite happy to let Piers in. Out is another question.”

Quote tweeting Piers Morgan: “Forgive me I don't trust you guys to be entirely truthtul given your ongoing ban on international journalists reporting freely in Gaza. Let them in, and then we can discover the real facts about what you have done there.”
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Patrick Osgood @patrickosgood.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
This is before factoring in what is like a material amount of Iranian restraint - does anyone really think the IRGC is played out here? Let alone opportunity cost losses for, well, the global population.
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Patrick Osgood @patrickosgood.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
This is all correct - I’d emphasize ongoing low transit of other Gulf energy outputs, especially LNG and diesel. More critical than crude. Diversion of strategic naval assets from Asia, threat of other horizontal escalation. And all essentially for nothing.
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Mark Jacob @markjacob.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
The New York Times has a choice of whether to cover Trumpism as A) an amusing and colorful example of the oddity of American politics, or B) an existential threat to the future of everyone you know and love. Over and over, they choose A. They trivialize themselves.
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Jo Michell @jomichell.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
A rare example of a coherent argument on this stuff. giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/... Protests from the City about bank tax ring hollow
giftarticle.ft.com
Protests from the City about bank tax ring hollow
No one likes to pay more — people or corporations — but this is a time of national need
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roterote @roterote.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
I think Greg is correct, but Americans need to be aware that Magyar’s Tisza government is aggressively going after every Fidesz official, removing them, using every lever of the state to yank them out of power. This is far more aggressive and rapid than anything proposed in the US so far.
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Patrick Osgood @patrickosgood.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
Vibes vibes vibes
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Peter Thal Larsen @petertl.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
In this weekend’s newsletter: while others debate whether Man City should be stripped of their trophies or relegated to League Two, I argue that what happens to the club’s directors and auditors is just as important - perhaps even more so.
Imagine a widget maker is sold to a new owner. Eager to expand, the ambitious proprietor splashes out on state-of-the-art machinery. The company’s improved widgets attract widespread praise and win many awards. However, sales do not keep up with the investment and the business suffers heavy losses.

Embarrassed by the red ink, the owner asks friendly business partners for help. Perhaps they could boost his sales by buying some products? The partners want to be supportive but cannot justify paying such high prices. So the owner gives them the necessary cash. The widget maker enjoys a boost to sales and reduced losses. Over almost a decade, these sham contracts bring in £831 million in additional revenue.

This, in a nutshell, is the case against Manchester City Football Club, as outlined in the eye-popping conclusions of an independent commission appointed by England’s Premier League and released this week. In this case, the widgets are Manchester City’s performances on the soccer pitch, while the sham payments were disguised as sponsorship and other commercial contracts.The question now is what punishment the club should face. Unsurprisingly, the debate has focused on possible sporting penalties for flouting English and European rules governing financial fair play. These include fines, the deduction of points, relegation to the lower divisions of English soccer, the cancellation of past trophies, and even a forced sale by Manchester City’s ultimate owner, Sheikh Mansour bin Zayed Al Nahyan.

But the same behaviour merits business sanctions, too. The directors of a humdrum widget maker that engaged in such deception could expect civil or even criminal charges, while the auditors who waved it through would also face censure. Manchester City, one of the most high-profile businesses in Britain, should be held to at least the same standard.

The club says it is innocent and has a “comprehensive body of irrefutable evidence” to support its case, which is ongoing. Apologists might argue that, as the £831 million started and ended with the same owner, the deception was cosmetic. Manchester City’s sporting rivals, who for years were outgunned in the competition for star players, disagree. The private equity firm Silver Lake, which invested $500 million in the club at a $4.8 billion valuation in 2019, may also take a different view. Besides, the unnamed commercial partners presumably engaged in some financial sleight-of-hand to facilitate the money-go-round.

Self-declared realists will maintain that capital-starved Britain cannot afford to alienate deep-pocketed investors like the United Arab Emirates. It’s also true that the Premier League has long tolerated the dubious motives of wealthy owners from the former Soviet Union, the Middle East and elsewhere in its quest for a bigger worldwide audience.

Yet the scale, audacity and duration of the scheme revealed this week demands a tougher response. At stake is not just the sporting fairness of the Premier League. As Liam Proud writes, the scandal is also a test of Britain’s legal, financial …
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Eric Lipton NYT @ericlipton.nytimes.com · 03/10/2026
JUST POSTED: Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff have pushed a multibillion oil deal with Russia as part of peace talks that will bring profits to their family business partners. A new front for Trump-era conflicts of interest. www.nytimes.com/2026/10/03/u...
nytimes.com
U.S.-Russia Talks on Ukraine Now Involve an Oil Deal Tied to Trump Allies (Gift Article)
President Vladimir V. Putin brought up a sale of Russian energy assets with President Trump’s envoys, Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff, pushing a deal that raises new questions about conflicts of inter...
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Gregk Foley @gregk.co.uk · 03/10/2026
Professional sucker
Nov. 12, 2023
The U.S. warns Israel to avoid fighting in hospitals.
This was featured in live coverage.
Dec. 8, 2023|
Biden Is Trying to Rein In Israel. Is It Working?
What started as unwavering support has given way to growing skepticism and sometimes open disapproval.
Jan, 19.2024|
Biden Presses
Netanyahu on Working Toward a Palestinian
State
The two leaders spoke for the first time in weeks. Their call
came a day after the Israeli leader rebuffed U.S. efforts to pressure him into a two-state solution.
Feb. 27, 2024
NEWS ANALYSIS
After 4 Months of War, Biden and Netanyahu Are on Different Timetables
The divergent goals of
President Biden and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu are playing out as negotiators try to reach a hostage deal.
March 15, 2024|
Biden Embraces
Schumer's Speech
Castigating Netanyahu
President Biden did not explicitly endorse any of the specific criticisms in the
speech. But his comments were the latest step in his escalating public critique of the Israeli prime minister.
Apni 3, 2024|
NEWS ANALYSIS
Biden Is 'Outraged. But Is He Willing to Use Americas Leverage With Israel?
President Biden, at least in
public, has limited his responses to Israel's war in Gaza to ever more indignant declarations.
April 5, 2024
NEWS ANALYSIS
In Threatening Israel, Biden Hopes to Avoid a Rupture
The president has put Israel's leader "on probation," as a
veteran diplomat put it. The threat is not idle, aides said, but he wants to force a course correction rather than follow through.April 18, 2024|
U.S. officials express
'concerns' to Israeli officials about any major assault on Rafah.
This was featured in live coverage.
May 7, 2024
Biden Puts Arms
Shipment to Israel on Hold Amid Dispute Over
Rafah Attack
The United States withheld
3,500 bombs last week out of
concern that they might be used in a major assault against the southern Gaza city, officials said.
May 8, 2024
Biden Pressures Israel for Cease-Fire, and Threatens to Withhold Arms
The president warned that the United States would withhold
American weapons if Israel launched a major invasion of Rafah in Gaza.
May 8, 2024
NEWS ANALYSIS
Turning Point or
Breaking Point? Biden's Pause on Weapons lests
Ties to Israel.
President Biden hopes the
decision to withhold the delivery of 3,500 bombs will prompt Israel to change course in its war in Gaza.
May 10, 2024
WHITE HOUSE MEMO
Biden Is Not the First
U.S. President to Cut Off Weapons to Israel Other presidents, including, Ronald Reagan, used the
power of American arms to influence Israeli war policy.
But the comparisons underscore how much the politics of Israel have changed over the years.
May 11, 2024|
The Long, Tortured Road to Biden's Clash With Netanyahu Over Gaza War
The president offered strong support to Israel after Oct. 7
but has grown increasingly frustrated over the conduct of the war. "He has just gotten to a point where enough is enough," a friend says.
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The Great Pumpkinsquatch - Scott Kelley Ernest 🏳️‍🌈 🏳️‍⚧️ @mxscottkernest.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
BOMBSHELL: WaPo reports Trump's ads were funded with money meant for slain officers' funerals youtu.be/GwqOZ0eaoDI?...
youtu.be
BOMBSHELL: WaPo reports Trump's ads were funded with money meant for slain officers' funerals
YouTube video by MS NOW
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Zeddy @zeddary.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Put all homeless in separate camps and all the mentally ill in straitjackets forever without trial are two more of Trump's decades-long hangups that he is intent on seeing through this time.
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Reconstructionist @unavaleable.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
he's so breathtakingly stupid
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Sasha Dugdale @sashadugdale.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Ferdinand Mount in @lrb.co.uk reminding us that 28,000 have died trying to cross the Med since 2014 ‘the death toll of a medium-sized war’: www.lrb.co.uk/the-paper/v4...
lrb.co.uk
Ferdinand Mount · Modest and Misunderstood: Wretched Strangers
In the great immigration panics of today, sympathy is focused on the home team. We are the ones who are being hurt. It...
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Patrick Osgood @patrickosgood.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Scientific proof of anti-juice
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Patrick Osgood @patrickosgood.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Ah, the good old 40% chaos chestnut. Not wrong if it happens, not wrong if it doesn’t, looks like you made a call.
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Patrick Osgood @patrickosgood.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Honestly, no.
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Patrick Osgood @patrickosgood.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
To what purpose?
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Patrick Osgood @patrickosgood.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
Quite a line to take given she absolutely fucked it on the Iran war
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Peter Geoghegan @petergeoghegan.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
🔴 We asked Tony Blair's think tank about charging businesses £500k for political access at party conferences and why one of its sponsor's logos disappeared after our reporting last week on TBI's alleged cash for access scheme This is what they said
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Zoomer Antimillenarian @surcomplicated.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
This isn't a court at all. They're literally not even reading the fucking briefs before making "decisions".
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James @gravitysra1nbow.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
One month until midterms one month until midterms one month until midterms one month until midterms
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Patrick Osgood @patrickosgood.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
I also wonder if there’s a sanctions architecture motive. Could be way off though
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Patrick Osgood @patrickosgood.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Patrick Bateman would not be caught dead in that suit or those shoes/clogs
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Garrett M. Graff @vermontgmg.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
We don’t spend enough time talking about just how WEIRD all these people are. This is just an incredibly weird and insecure thing to say. Imagine any other SecDef ever being this weird and insecure?!
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Ben K. @benjaminkabak.com · 30/09/2026
I feel dumb even just having to say this but the reason passports are mailed out in plain regular envelopes is that so that people do not attempt to steal easily recognizable passports in the mail. bsky.app/profile/carn...
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Patrick Osgood @patrickosgood.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Baffling
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Patrick Osgood @patrickosgood.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
“Are the enthusiasts who devote themselves to a line of Shakespeare not literally Shakespeare?” - Borges, A New Refutation of Time
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Adam Brooks @adamrbroooks.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
SCOTUS looked at the harm of people being dumped in foreign lands, and the harm of the government not being able to disappear people… and sided with the government.
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Patrick Osgood @patrickosgood.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
If you don’t treat writing as essential for achieving thought, you’re not thinking
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Patrick Osgood @patrickosgood.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
This framing is both too narrow and over-egged. The 2003 invasion was the strategic victory for Iran. That ship has sailed. This exit is more than all that. It’s an aperture by which Iraq may become whatever it itself can be, with all the dire challenges and legacies it might - might - shuck away
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Josh Fruhlinger @jfruh.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
they DIDN'T REFUND her fucking TUITION?????
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Patrick Osgood @patrickosgood.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
They initially tried harder than that!
NYT: Jack Smith, Who Charged Trump, Testifies in Combative Hearing Republicans have called for the former special counsel to be prosecuted. One G.O.P. senator accused him of perjury, but it appeared to be based on a misunderstanding.
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Patrick Osgood @patrickosgood.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
A half-assed charter for a whole-ass cartel.
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Louis @louisevans.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Pass a law clarifying that the supreme court’s appellate jurisdiction does not begin until a final ruling has been made by district and appeals courts.
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Michael Hanna @mwhanna.crisisgroup.org · 29/09/2026
My colleague @lahibhigel.bsky.social and I look at what’s next for Iraq with the completion of the anti-ISIS coalition’s withdrawal tomorrow. The militia dilemma remains and how it is dealt with will go a long way in determining the shape of U.S.-Iraq relations. www.crisisgroup.org/cmt/middle-e...
crisisgroup.org
The U.S.-led Anti-ISIS Coalition is Leaving Iraq: What Happens Next? | International Crisis Group
The coming withdrawal of U.S.-led coalition forces marks a significant moment in Iraq’s tumultuous recent history. Yet with the Middle East war bringing conflict to the country and questions surroundi...
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Crisis Group @crisisgroup.org · 24/09/2026
"The U.S.-led coalition against ISIS is leaving Iraq. The paramilitary groups that fought ISIS will remain [and] their continued power poses a fundamental question for the country’s new government." @lahibhigel.bsky.social examines the challenges ahead for Iraq.
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Tony @quillbo.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
At least he's taking getting the FBI back on track by *checks notes* ordering agents to engage in a Twitter flame war with an account called "ifindr****ds" newrepublic.com/post/215320/...
A text exchange where Kash orders Benjamin Douglas Williamson of the FBI to repeatedly respond to "ifindr****ds"'s post with FBI statistics. Truly one of the most fragile things I've ever seen a man do.
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Spokane Rising @spokanerising.com · 29/09/2026
Send Stephen Miller to The Hague.
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Josh Marshall @joshtpm.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Best Sen Schmitt meme yet
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Greg Greene (he/him/his) @greene.haus · 29/09/2026
I'm trying to imagine a Democratic president — let's say Al Gore, to give ourselves a giggle — refusing to approve a single highway project for almost two years, and the absolute hellfire that would erupt in response _across_ the political landscape.
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Ash @queerash.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
what if we just get Man City to pay for the National Care Service
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