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Michael Hanna

@mwhanna.crisisgroup.org
2.9K followers 552 following 597 posts

Director, U.S. Program, International Crisis Group; Non-Resident Senior Fellow, Reiss Center on Law and Security, NYU School of Law

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Michael Hanna @mwhanna.crisisgroup.org · 9h
Very pleased to have this out. My colleague Chris Newton and I have tried to lay out how oil, gas and fuel prices are impacting U.S. decisions on the war, with Washington striving to lower and Tehran to keep them high. www.crisisgroup.org/cmt/united-s...
crisisgroup.org
Five Energy Market Factors That Could Tip the Scales in the Middle East War | International Crisis Group
Oil, gas and fuel prices are central to the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran, with Washington striving to lower them and Tehran to keep them high. With both sides determined to prevail, five market-shaping ...
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Crisis Group @crisisgroup.org · 30/09/2026
NEW COMMENTARY | The U.S.-led Anti-ISIS Coalition is Leaving Iraq: What Happens Next? With the Middle East war bringing conflict to the country and questions surrounding the state’s capacity to assert its authority, the significance of the withdrawal is mainly symbolic.
crisisgroup.org
The U.S.-led Anti-ISIS Coalition is Leaving Iraq: What Happens Next? | International Crisis Group
The coming withdrawal of U.S.-led coalition forces marks a significant moment in Iraq’s tumultuous recent history. Yet with the Middle East war bringing conflict to the country and questions surroundi...
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Michael Hanna @mwhanna.crisisgroup.org · 29/09/2026
My colleague @lahibhigel.bsky.social and I look at what’s next for Iraq with the completion of the anti-ISIS coalition’s withdrawal tomorrow. The militia dilemma remains and how it is dealt with will go a long way in determining the shape of U.S.-Iraq relations. www.crisisgroup.org/cmt/middle-e...
crisisgroup.org
The U.S.-led Anti-ISIS Coalition is Leaving Iraq: What Happens Next? | International Crisis Group
The coming withdrawal of U.S.-led coalition forces marks a significant moment in Iraq’s tumultuous recent history. Yet with the Middle East war bringing conflict to the country and questions surroundi...
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Michael Hanna @mwhanna.crisisgroup.org · 22/09/2026
A few thoughts on Trump’s speech at the GA, which was short by his standards and notable for the lack of new initiatives or announcements. In that sense, those gathered might have breathed a sigh of relief.
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Richard Gowan @richardgowan1.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
It's out! @crisisgroup.org's annual reckoning with the state of the UN is here. Big congrats to @fortid.crisisgroup.org for pulling it together this year. www.crisisgroup.org/sbr/global/s...
crisisgroup.org
Ten Challenges for the UN in 2026-2027 | International Crisis Group
As the 2026 General Assembly begins, the UN remains hobbled by cost cutting and big-power wrangling. The new Secretary-General to be chosen soon cannot cure all that ails the organisation, but much ca...
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Michael Hanna @mwhanna.crisisgroup.org · 11/09/2026
My colleagues Phil Gunson and Delaney Simon run down the knowns and unknowns of Trump's purported oil deal with Venezuela. www.crisisgroup.org/qna/latin-am...
crisisgroup.org
What Future for Venezuela after the U.S. Oil Carve-up? | International Crisis Group
The Trump administration has announced an agreement with Caracas that it says gives the U.S. a major stake in the Venezuelan oil industry. In this Q&A, Crisis Group experts Phil Gunson and Delaney Sim...
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Michael Hanna @mwhanna.crisisgroup.org · 10/09/2026
It’s striking how little attention is being paid to the Iran war and its regional effects when the possibilities for escalation are many and would be keenly felt by U.S. consumers.
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Michael Hanna @mwhanna.crisisgroup.org · 01/09/2026
What’s much clearer today is that a U.S.-led economic war on Iran anchored to a blockade will eventually tip into military conflict. It’s an open question whether current hostilities will remain contained. But without an agreement in place, Iran will continue to try to hold Hormuz hostage.
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Michael Hanna @mwhanna.crisisgroup.org · 25/08/2026
With my home state of Tennessee going off the rails in recent years, it was always nice to be able to point to Dolly Parton as an ambassador for the state. Sad news.
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Michael Hanna @mwhanna.crisisgroup.org · 24/08/2026
This detached-from-reality rhetoric is far preferable to the alternative of going back to full-on war. Effectively a coping mechanism.
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Michael Hanna @mwhanna.crisisgroup.org · 12/08/2026
Trump is trapped by the US’s strategic defeat in this war and is not reconciled yet to the realities on the ground. There are no easy ways out now that don’t come with major costs.
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Michael Hanna @mwhanna.crisisgroup.org · 12/08/2026
My colleague @mairavz.bsky.social on Israeli views of the ongoing US-Israel MOU negotiations. www.crisisgroup.org/cmt/middle-e...
crisisgroup.org
The U.S. and Israel: From Aid to Strategic Integration | International Crisis Group
The debate under way about U.S. military assistance to Israel is a barometer of bilateral relations. Israeli officials have accepted that the next deal could be the last of its kind, but they are also...
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Michael Hanna @mwhanna.crisisgroup.org · 05/08/2026
Many individuals within the bureaucracy, political, military and career, understood well the risks a war with Iran posed for Hormuz, and it remains striking that nobody resigned (not to even mention objections to legality and morality).
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Guardian Sport @sport.theguardian.com · 31/07/2026
Franco Baresi, iconic former Milan and Italy defender, dies aged 66
dlvr.it
Franco Baresi, iconic former Milan and Italy defender, dies aged 66
* Italian icon had undergone surgery on pulmonary nodule * ‘The entire history of ⁠Milan is in ⁠tears,’ Serie A club says The former Milan and Italy defender Franco Baresi, one of the most recognisable players of the ⁠golden era of Italian football in the 1980s and 1990s, has died at the age of 66. “The entire history of ⁠AC Milan is in ⁠tears following the ​passing of Franco Baresi,” his former club said on Friday. “His example and integrity will be forever etched into the club’s DNA, just as his iconic No 6 shirt is.” Continue reading...
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Brian Finucane @bcfinucane.bsky.social · 30/07/2026
Pleased to speak with @nahaltoosi.bsky.social. "People involved in unlawful activity under this administration, 20 years down the line, if they happen to travel to Europe, it might catch up with them."
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Michael Hanna @mwhanna.crisisgroup.org · 30/07/2026
Yesterday’s drone strike on Damietta, which looks to be linked to the Iran war, represents escalation on regional energy/global markets. Also another signal that Iran is prioritizing its war effort over relations with other regional parties, despite Egypt’s efforts at rapprochement and mediation.
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Michael Hanna @mwhanna.crisisgroup.org · 30/07/2026
An important emerging dynamic is that the U.S. is not the sole actor capable of determining when and if fighting continues. Iran can keep the war going in the event they aren’t satisfied with the terms governing any ceasefire.
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Michael Hanna @mwhanna.crisisgroup.org · 29/07/2026
The timing and optics of these attacks - so soon after the successful meetings of the Iraqi PM in Washington - are a real problem for Iraq’s new leader.
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Michael Hanna @mwhanna.crisisgroup.org · 23/07/2026
Setting aside views about wisdom of a nuclear agreement with Saudi, Trump’s post-agreement normalization talk is an unwelcome reminder for the region about U.S. unreliability under Trump and the outsized role Israel plays in decisions about their own security.
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Michael Hanna @mwhanna.crisisgroup.org · 22/07/2026
My reflections from last year on a possible U.S.-Saudi nuclear deal. Most notable features remain the same: the decoupling of nuclear issues from normalization with Israel and Trump’s political latitude in this space in comparison to a Democratic president. www.crisisgroup.org/alr/united-s...
crisisgroup.org
As Other Partners Struggle with Trump, U.S. and Saudi Arabia Move toward Nuclear Cooperation | International Crisis Group
Crisis Group’s Michael Wahid Hanna on a prospective nuclear cooperation deal between Washington and Riyadh
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Michael Hanna @mwhanna.crisisgroup.org · 20/07/2026
“Jon Finer told me that the hallmark of the Gaza conflict has been that, for both Hamas and Israel, ‘civilian harm was not a side effect but part of the strategy.’” The Enabler: www.newyorker.com/magazine/202...
newyorker.com
How Biden Enabled Israel’s Aggression Toward Gaza—and Iran
Top officials from the previous Administration now express regret over their failure to rein in Netanyahu.
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This Is Anfield @thisisanfield.com · 20/07/2026
NEW: Kevin Keegan, Liverpool legend, dies aged 75 #lfc
thisisanfield.com
Kevin Keegan, Liverpool legend, dies aged 75
This Is Anfield
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Michael Hanna @mwhanna.crisisgroup.org · 20/07/2026
My first hazy memories of football are of Kevin Keegan. Incredible player. Sad to hear of his death.
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Michael Hanna @mwhanna.crisisgroup.org · 19/07/2026
Nico Williams has made a big difference since he came on.
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Michael Hanna @mwhanna.crisisgroup.org · 19/07/2026
Couldn’t happen to a better guy.
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Michael Hanna @mwhanna.crisisgroup.org · 19/07/2026
So much of the world united together today in rooting against Argentina.
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Michael Hanna @mwhanna.crisisgroup.org · 19/07/2026
The United States is intent on waging wars at zero cost and somehow seems shocked that interstate war comes with real risks.
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The Great Pumpkin Papers 🎃🎃🎃 @professormusgrave.bsky.social · 18/07/2026
One day again, America will wage a war when the USA shares in the direct costs of conflict, and I do not believe Americans are psychologically ready for it.
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Michael Hanna @mwhanna.crisisgroup.org · 18/07/2026
Ha ha, sure, that should be very straightforward: “Open the strait. And then, hard as it is for Trump to keep his mouth shut, it’s time for what wise negotiators sometimes call “dynamic silence.”” www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...
washingtonpost.com
Opinion | Trump pushed the reset button. This is ‘Iran Fiasco 2.0.’
A coalition can keep Hormuz open and squeeze Tehran. There’s no need to rush a nuclear deal.
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Michael Hanna @mwhanna.crisisgroup.org · 15/07/2026
Vamos Espana. Save us all.
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Michael Hanna @mwhanna.crisisgroup.org · 15/07/2026
Tuchel’s subs and formation changes have made zero sense.
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Alan Allport @alanallport.bsky.social · 15/07/2026
THE SCOUSER ON THE TEAM
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Michael Hanna @mwhanna.crisisgroup.org · 15/07/2026
We will have the odd situation today of Egypt and much of the Middle East rooting for England in a WC semifinal.
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Michael Hanna @mwhanna.crisisgroup.org · 10/07/2026
I saw the last name and suspected this guy must be Egyptian, and sure enough. There is a very specific lane that some Arab Christians have found to be an effective platform into right-wing politics. Beyond the silly ideas here, the racial backlash driving these politics is also going to come for him
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Michael Hanna @mwhanna.crisisgroup.org · 09/07/2026
Most of the world? Yeah, I’m not too sure about that.
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Michael Hanna @mwhanna.crisisgroup.org · 08/07/2026
The thing that is different about this latest escalation is that it is squarely focused on Hormuz and the manner in which the Strait functions. MOU itself didn’t answer all those questions and there are obvious gaps between the parties. Question for the moment is whether conflict can be contained.
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Michael Hanna @mwhanna.crisisgroup.org · 08/07/2026
One thing that’s particularly difficult about World Cup assessments is that it only happens every 4 years and one game is often the difference between perceptions of success and failure. A lot of similar questions could be asked of Germany and Brazil based on their recent results.
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Michael Hanna @mwhanna.crisisgroup.org · 08/07/2026
It remains notable to see this administration continue to make good policy decisions on Syria. SST is particularly toxic and has a major chilling effect on investment and bars access to international financing. Countries with this designation are few and carry an added stigma as a result.
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Richard Gowan @richardgowan1.bsky.social · 08/07/2026
New from @crisisgroup.org, a big picture take on war and peace today. "Causes of Peace in an Era of Hard Power" 👇 www.crisisgroup.org/sbr/global/s...
crisisgroup.org
Causes of Peace in an Era of Hard Power | International Crisis Group
With the post-World War II international order fading away and hostilities on the rise, the prospects for conflict prevention look dim. But the picture is not wholly dark. It is possible to identify t...
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Michael Hanna @mwhanna.crisisgroup.org · 08/07/2026
Damning. And what makes this even worse, of course, is how Argentina play.
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Michael Hanna @mwhanna.crisisgroup.org · 08/07/2026
Both the U.S. and Iran seem to think that they can incrementally escalate without fully collapsing the ceasefire, and it’s a pretty dangerous assumption to operate on.
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Michael Hanna @mwhanna.crisisgroup.org · 08/07/2026
Argentina played a full 90+11 and didn’t receive a single yellow. That’s an absurdity for that team.
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Alan Allport @alanallport.bsky.social · 07/07/2026
Egypt 3 Argentina 2, Argentina to progress
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Michael Hanna @mwhanna.crisisgroup.org · 07/07/2026
Oh come on man. Awful.
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Michael Hanna @mwhanna.crisisgroup.org · 07/07/2026
An absolute travesty. If it had been an Argentina goal VAR would’ve never gotten involved.
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Michael Hanna @mwhanna.crisisgroup.org · 07/07/2026
What a goal! If Var overturns this I will lose my mind.
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Michael Hanna @mwhanna.crisisgroup.org · 07/07/2026
Wow. Terrible pen from Messi.
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Michael Hanna @mwhanna.crisisgroup.org · 07/07/2026
!!!!! And it’s Lisandro getting beat in the air!
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Michael Hanna @mwhanna.crisisgroup.org · 07/07/2026
Hossam Hassan benching Marmoush is a dubious choice. He hasn’t had a great tournament, but he could easily select a lineup with him and Haissem Hassan in it if that is the primary goal.
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Michael Caley @michaelcaley.bsky.social · 07/07/2026
also the US team already is composed of players who are succeeding in the top European leagues! I feel like I'm taking crazy pills reading the commentary on this team.
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