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Lahib Higel

@lahibhigel.bsky.social
249 followers 54 following 20 posts

Interim Deputy Director, MENA. International Crisis Group.

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Reposted by Lahib Higel
Crisis Group @crisisgroup.org · 24/09/2026
"The U.S.-led coalition against ISIS is leaving Iraq. The paramilitary groups that fought ISIS will remain [and] their continued power poses a fundamental question for the country’s new government." @lahibhigel.bsky.social examines the challenges ahead for Iraq.
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Reposted by Lahib Higel
Michael Hanna @mwhanna.crisisgroup.org · 29/09/2026
My colleague @lahibhigel.bsky.social and I look at what’s next for Iraq with the completion of the anti-ISIS coalition’s withdrawal tomorrow. The militia dilemma remains and how it is dealt with will go a long way in determining the shape of U.S.-Iraq relations. www.crisisgroup.org/cmt/middle-e...
crisisgroup.org
The U.S.-led Anti-ISIS Coalition is Leaving Iraq: What Happens Next? | International Crisis Group
The coming withdrawal of U.S.-led coalition forces marks a significant moment in Iraq’s tumultuous recent history. Yet with the Middle East war bringing conflict to the country and questions surroundi...
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Reposted by Lahib Higel
Crisis Group @crisisgroup.org · 31/07/2026
NEW OP-ED | Zaidi’s Militia Dilemma Iraq’s new prime minister faces a familiar challenge in confronting Iran-backed groups. @lahibhigel.bsky.social explains why in @foreignpolicy.com.
foreignpolicy.com
Zaidi’s Militia Dilemma
Iraq’s new prime minister faces a familiar challenge in confronting Iran-backed groups.
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Reposted by Lahib Higel
Crisis Group @crisisgroup.org · 01/08/2026
✍️NEW Q&A | The Middle East’s Metastasising Conflicts After a lull, the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran has reignited, spreading in new and dangerous ways. In this Q&A, Crisis Group explains why de-escalation is urgent in every theatre. www.crisisgroup.org/qna/middle-e...
crisisgroup.org
The Middle East’s Metastasising Conflicts | International Crisis Group
After a lull, the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran has reignited, spreading in new and dangerous ways. It could continue to widen, engulfing ever more countries. In this Q&A, Crisis Group explains why de-es...
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Reposted by Lahib Higel
Crisis Group @crisisgroup.org · 14/03/2026
NEW COMMENTARY | The Global Impact of the New Middle East War The U.S.-Israeli war with Iran is approaching its second week with no end yet in sight. Our experts offer a 360-degree view of its impact around the world. www.crisisgroup.org/cmt/middle-e...
crisisgroup.org
Conflict and Consequences: The Global Impact of the New Middle East War | International Crisis Group
The U.S.-Israeli war with Iran is approaching the close of its second week, with no end yet in sight. Crisis Group experts offer a 360-degree view of its effects on peace, security and economic stabil...
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Lahib Higel @lahibhigel.bsky.social · 06/03/2026
Where does the region stand a week into the war? Read our @CrisisGroup.org 360 degree view, with colleagues’ insights from Iran, Israel, the Gulf, Iraq, Lebanon, Yemen, Turkey and Egypt. www.crisisgroup.org/cmt/middle-e...
crisisgroup.org
A Sprawling Middle East War Explodes | International Crisis Group
A joint U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran, followed by Iranian retaliation against U.S. military assets, Israel and other U.S. allies, has engulfed much of the Middle East in conflict. Crisis Group experts ...
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Reposted by Lahib Higel
Crisis Group @crisisgroup.org · 03/03/2026
“Israel is hammering Iran. [But] the question is, how long can we go on like this? What is the endgame?” Our analyst Mairav Zonszein reports from Tel Aviv as the U.S., Israel and Iran enter a perilous new phase of direct confrontation. www.crisisgroup.org/how-we-work/...
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Reposted by Lahib Higel
Crisis Group @crisisgroup.org · 23/02/2026
NEW STATEMENT | The U.S. and Iran Can Still Avoid a War Both have never been so close to a major war. Escalation risks make any conflict scenario perilous for all concerned. A narrow path to averting war exists, but time is of the essence. www.crisisgroup.org/stm/middle-e...
crisisgroup.org
The U.S. and Iran Can Still Avoid a War | International Crisis Group
In nearly five decades of mutual antagonism, the U.S. and Iran have never been so close to a major war. Escalation risks make any conflict scenario perilous for all concerned. A narrow path to avertin...
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Reposted by Lahib Higel
Crisis Group @crisisgroup.org · 30/01/2026
NEW ANALYST’S NOTEBOOK | Iraqi Politics in Ferment after Trump’s Broadside @lahibhigel.bsky.social assesses the reasons behind the U.S. president’s swipe at a former Iraqi prime minister and how political forces are responding. www.crisisgroup.org/anb/middle-e...
crisisgroup.org
Iraqi Politics in Ferment after Trump’s Broadside | International Crisis Group
Crisis Group expert Lahib Higel assesses the reasons behind the U.S. president’s swipe at a former Iraqi prime minister and how political forces are responding
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Wolfram Lacher @wlacher.bsky.social · 12/01/2026
In the new @dissentmag.bsky.social issue, out today, @yguichaoua.bsky.social and I diagnose the crisis of conflict studies in a piece that is part intellectual history, part personal experience. What was conflict studies for? And what can its travails tell us about how wars have changed?
dissentmagazine.org
The Demise of Conflict Studies - Dissent Magazine
An entire industry specializing in mediation, peacekeeping, disarmament, and transitional justice has become largely obsolete.
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Reposted by Lahib Higel
Crisis Group @crisisgroup.org · 12/01/2026
NEW COMMENTARY | How the World Sees the U.S. Raid in Venezuela The U.S. operation grabbing President Nicolás Maduro caused disquiet in many capitals around the globe. @crisisgroup.org offers a 360-degree view of the reactions and their implications. www.crisisgroup.org/latin-americ...
crisisgroup.org
How the World Sees the U.S. Raid in Venezuela | International Crisis Group
The U.S. operation grabbing Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro caused disquiet in many capitals around the globe, not least due to subsequent talk of seizing Greenland. But several governments have t...
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Reposted by Lahib Higel
Crisis Group @crisisgroup.org · 03/01/2026
‘Risks of violence in any post-Maduro scenario should not be downplayed. The U.S. decision to go it alone has sent a chilling message across the region.’ Our recent statement explains why Washington should be wary of the fallout following events in Venezuela. www.crisisgroup.org/latin-americ...
crisisgroup.org
Beware the Slide Toward Regime Change in Venezuela | International Crisis Group
The Trump administration is dispatching military assets to the Caribbean and sinking boats it claims ferry drugs. While it appears the deployment is part of a plan to depose Venezuelan President Nicol...
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Reposted by Lahib Higel
Crisis Group @crisisgroup.org · 02/09/2025
NEW STATEMENT | The World’s Shame in Gaza Israel’s Gaza campaign has entered an even more nightmarish phase. The world must press Israel harder to stop the war, lest its offensive destroy Palestinian life in the strip beyond hope of recovery. www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-...
crisisgroup.org
The World’s Shame in Gaza | International Crisis Group
Israel’s Gaza campaign has entered an even more nightmarish phase. The world must press Israel harder to stop the war regardless of “day after” questions – lest its offensive destroy Palestinian life ...
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Reposted by Lahib Higel
Crisis Group @crisisgroup.org · 27/06/2025
ONLINE EVENT | What Next in the U.S.-Israeli Confrontation with Iran July 1 | 9.30am Washington DC | 3.30pm Brussels w/ @mwhanna.crisisgroup.org, Naysan Rafati, @mairavz.bsky.social, @lahibhigel.bsky.social Registration ⬇️ us06web.zoom.us/webinar/regi...
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Reposted by Lahib Higel
Delaney Simon @delaneysimon.bsky.social · 03/06/2025
My latest in @foreignpolicy.com. Trump has promised to lift sanctions on Syria. I explain why it's not that easy to fully end the sanctions—and their effects. foreignpolicy.com/2025/06/02/t...
foreignpolicy.com
It’s Not That Easy to Lift Sanctions on Syria
Other presidents have struggled with political and logistical obstacles when trying to effect a rollback.
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Comfort Ero @comfortero.crisisgroup.org · 03/06/2025
Europe is finally finding its voice on the Gaza Strip. A better and braver friend would have spoken out earlier and louder, but what matters now is that Europe acts. There is much that European leaders can do as @crisisgroup.org sets out here ⬇️ www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-...
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Reposted by Lahib Higel
Maya Ungar @mayaungar.bsky.social · 03/06/2025
✍️ My quick take for @crisisgroup.org on how last week's UNSC votes on South Sudan and Libya reflect on the broader sanctions debate at the UN. www.crisisgroup.org/global-south...
crisisgroup.org
The UN Dodges a Diplomatic Breakdown over Sanctions | International Crisis Group
Crisis Group expert Maya Ungar on UN Security Council votes on sanctions on South Sudan and enforcement of Libya’s arms embargo
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Olya Oliker aka Dr. Olga Oliker (she/her) @olyaoliker.bsky.social · 19/05/2025
The PKK decision to disband is a huge deal for Türkiye and prospectively well beyond. But getting to peace will take additional effort. New @crisisgroup.org statement reflects terrific work by @berkaymandiraci.bsky.social, @lahibhigel.bsky.social, @dibanigar.bsky.social & Dareen Khalifa.
crisisgroup.org
The PKK’s Decision to Disband May Offer a Historic Chance at Peace | International Crisis Group
More than forty years after it formed with the goal of creating an independent Kurdish state, the PKK has said it will stop its armed struggle against Türkiye. How Ankara responds will help determine ...
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Reposted by Lahib Higel
Crisis Group @crisisgroup.org · 01/05/2025
‘These attacks risk undermining Lebanon’s new political leadership, quite possibly to Hizbollah’s benefit.’ The attack on Beirut marked a serious escalation in Israel’s post-war military posture. www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-...
crisisgroup.org
Continued Israeli Strikes on Lebanon Risk Bolstering Hizbollah | Crisis Group
Crisis Group expert David Wood on the fall-out from Israel’s latest attack on Beirut.
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Brian Finucane @bcfinucane.bsky.social · 09/04/2025
NEW: My thoughts for @crisisgroup.org on the Trump administration's framing of migration and organized crime as "terrorism" and as a military threat, and how this may be laying the groundwork for US military action in Mexico. www.crisisgroup.org/united-state...
crisisgroup.org
Will Trump Borrow from “War on Terror” Playbook in Bombing Cartels? | Crisis Group
Crisis Group’s Brian Finucane on parallels between the war on terror and the U.S. Mexico policy
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Comfort Ero @comfortero.crisisgroup.org · 07/04/2025
If Sudan’s war merely concerned Sudanese, its course might be easier to predict. What’s clear however is that heavy outside involvement makes escalation more likely. So here’s some de-escalatory ideas which reps of states that back the belligerents could lead on. www.crisisgroup.org/africa/horn-...
crisisgroup.org
Two Years On, Sudan’s War is Spreading | Crisis Group
After the Sudanese army recaptured Khartoum, many hoped that Sudan’s war would start winding down. Instead, as it enters its third year, the conflict is escalating and likely to expand in scope, unles...
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Reposted by Lahib Higel
Crisis Group @crisisgroup.org · 31/03/2025
ONLINE EVENT | What’s Driving the Red Sea Crisis and How to Stop It? 8 April 2025 | 4pm Sanaa | 3pm Brussels | 9am Washington Registration ⬇️ us06web.zoom.us/webinar/regi...
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Crisis Group @crisisgroup.org · 25/03/2025
The Red Sea has become a flashpoint of global competition, with military build-up outpacing diplomacy. As tensions rise between the US, Iran, and regional actors, curbing naval escalation and addressing the root conflicts in Gaza and Yemen are essential. www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-...
crisisgroup.org
Calming the Red Sea’s Turbulent Waters | Crisis Group
Fresh exchanges of fire between Yemen’s Houthis, on one side, and the U.S. and Israel, on the other, have put Red Sea security back in the spotlight. Big challenges lie ahead in stopping this cycle an...
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Reposted by Lahib Higel
Crisis Group @crisisgroup.org · 27/03/2025
NEW Q&A | President Trump has used a 1798 law to deport alleged members of the criminal network Tren de Aragua to El Salvador, in whose notorious prisons they are now held. We explain the group’s origins and the policy’s potential consequences. www.crisisgroup.org/global-unite...

Inmates remain in a cell at the Counter-Terrorism Confinement Centre (CECOT) mega-prison, in Tecoluca, El Salvador on January 27, 2025. AFP / Marvin Recinos
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Just Security @justsecurity.org · 27/03/2025
Undermining the rule of law internationally is self-defeating, writes @bcfinucane.bsky.social (@crisisgroup.org) He writes on why the prohibition on the use of force and U.S. alliances matter and what should happen next: www.justsecurity.org/109537/upend...
justsecurity.org
Upending the International Order
Through both word and deed, President Trump has been aggressively undermining the rule of law internationally.
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Comfort Ero @comfortero.crisisgroup.org · 17/03/2025
A call for 🇮🇱 to rethink its Syria strategy or risk pushing country toward one of the very scenarios it says it wants to avoid: fostering chaos that Iran &/or jihadist militants could exploit, or nudging new govt in Damascus closer to Ankara. www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-... @mairavz.bsky.social
crisisgroup.org
How Israel’s Overreach in Syria May Backfire | Crisis Group
After the Assad regime was overthrown, Israel immediately began treating the new authorities in Damascus as a potential security threat, taking a series of aggressive military actions. This approach r...
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Reposted by Lahib Higel
Zaid Al-Ali @zalali.bsky.social · 13/03/2025
The interim authorities in Syria have adopted a new 'constitutional declaration', which is the equivalent of an interim constitution. This is another major step in the transition and is deserving of attention. I summarise its contents and offer some analysis in the thread below
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Turkey recap @turkeyrecap.bsky.social · 09/03/2025
📰Sunday extras! "What does the PKK ceasefire mean for Türkiye, Iraq and Syria?" with Berkay Mandıracı, @lahibhigel.bsky.social and Dareen Khalifa. [1/5]
open.spotify.com
What Does the PKK Ceasefire Mean for Türkiye, Iraq and Syria?
Hold Your Fire! · Episode
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Comfort Ero @comfortero.crisisgroup.org · 01/01/2025
In unsettled times, U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s return to the White House looks set to shake things up further. But how does a disrupter deal with an already disrupted world? Welcome to an unpredictable 2025 in association with @foreignpolicy.com www.crisisgroup.org/global/10-co...
crisisgroup.org
10 Conflicts to Watch in 2025 | Crisis Group
Trump’s return adds unpredictability to an already volatile world. As global tensions rise, change looms, whether through deals or arms.
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Joost Hiltermann @joosthiltermann.bsky.social · 18/12/2024
In this 360-degree view, @crisisgroup.org experts offer a brief survey of the discussions in Turkey, Iran, Russia, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Iraq, Libya, the oPt, Gulf Arab states, the US and at the UNSC about the latest developments in and around Syria. www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-...
crisisgroup.org
Regional Perspectives on the House of Assad’s Fall | Crisis Group
The Assad dynasty’s demise will certainly remake Syria, but it will also reshape relations between Damascus and other capitals. Crisis Group experts offer a 360-degree view of how the Syrian crisis could shake up regional politics.
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Yezid Sayigh @yezidsayigh.bsky.social · 13/12/2024
My colleague @nicolegrajewski.bsky.social captures perfectly what prompted Iran to intervene in defence of the Assad regime in Syria in 2012, and why it so abruptly abandoned him: carnegieendowment.org/middle-east/...
carnegieendowment.org
Why Did Iran Allow Bashar al-Assad’s Downfall?
Tehran may have assumed there would be opportunities to exploit in Syria’s likely instability in the future.
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Crisis Group @crisisgroup.org · 12/12/2024
NEW STATEMENT | Priorities after Assad’s Fall At last, Syria is free of the despised Assad regime. The long-suffering Syrian people deserve respite and a chance to rebuild the country on their own terms, with help not interference from outside. www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-...
crisisgroup.org
Priorities after Assad’s Fall | Crisis Group
At last, Syria is free of the despised Assad regime. The long-suffering Syrian people deserve respite and a chance to rebuild the country on their own terms, with help not interference from outside.
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Aron Lund @aronlund.bsky.social · 06/12/2024
Published minutes ago and may remain up to date for several minutes more! Read it before the rebels seize your computer!
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Lahib Higel @lahibhigel.bsky.social · 06/12/2024
Amidst further territorial losses of the Syrian regime, the Iraqi Shiite Coordination Framework (incl. all major Shia parties except for Sadr) has reportedly unanimously decided not to support Assad military. Meanwhile, the Iraqi resistance groups in eastern Syria have retreated to Iraq.
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Lahib Higel @lahibhigel.bsky.social · 06/12/2024
As the SDF is taking over areas from Deir Ez-Zor to Albu Kamal after the Syrian Army’s withdrawal, Iraqi groups are retreating into Iraq’s Anbar province.
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Lahib Higel @lahibhigel.bsky.social · 05/12/2024
THREAD 🧵: This is the second time since the offensive started that Jolani has sent a message to Iraq, trying to reassure the government that their fight is with the regime and will not extend to Iraq. He called on Prime Minister al-Sudani to keep the PMF/Hashd out of Syria. 1/8
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Lahib Higel @lahibhigel.bsky.social · 04/12/2024
THREAD 🧵: The ceasefire in Lebanon and the current turmoil in Syria has prompted a recalibration of priorities among Iraqi resistance groups. Before, their attacks on Israel kept the government busy trying to avert potential Israeli strikes on Iraq. 1/9
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Crisis Group @crisisgroup.org · 04/12/2024
NEW Q&A | Can the Hizbollah-Israel Ceasefire Hold? In this Q&A, Crisis Group experts Heiko Wimmen, David Wood and @mairavz.bsky.social examine the truce’s terms and the chances that it will hold. www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-...
crisisgroup.org
Can the Hizbollah-Israel Ceasefire Hold? | Crisis Group
Lebanon and Israel have reached an agreement to end the Hizbollah-Israel fighting that began on 8 October 2023. In this Q&A, Crisis Group experts Heiko Wimmen, David Wood and Mairav Zonszein examine the truce’s terms and weigh the chances that the parties will honour them.
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Crisis Group @crisisgroup.org · 29/11/2024
Online Event | Lebanon-Israel ceasefire: What’s at stake? 🗓️ Wednesday 4 December ⏰ 17pm Beirut/Tel Aviv | 16pm Brussels | 10am Washington D.C With Heiko Wimmen, David Wood, ​​@mairavz.bsky.social Moderated by @lahibhigel.bsky.social 📝 Registration: us06web.zoom.us/webinar/regi...
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