Jo Michell @jomichell.bsky.social · 2hThe Full Employment Rate of Unemployment is spectacular economist brain. 170
Reposted by Jo MichellHenry Mance @henrymance.ft.com · 5hIsraeli minister calls Shabana Mahmood an Islamist, because erm, erm, erm 2826853
Reposted by Jo MichellBen Chu @benchu.bsky.social · 7hThinking about the impact of the triple lock on the state pension can be confusing as there's a number of interacting moving parts (earnings, inflation, 2.5%). 🤷♂️❓ But here's a visualisation that hopefully might help...1/5 43426
Jo Michell @jomichell.bsky.social · 9hReminds me of the joke: “the English don’t like music, they just like the sound it makes”. 070
Reposted by Jo MichellAndy Bruce (Reuters) @bruceandy.bsky.social · 11h🥳 UK economy grew more than thought in the second quarter. • GDP +0.5% qq versus a previous estimate of +0.4% (same with GDP per head) • Strong business investment growth (see 👇) • Current account balance (exc. precious metals) smallest in 5 years at 1% of GDP thanks to services exports 38631
Reposted by Jo MichellWill Davies @will-davies.bsky.social · 29/09/2026Priorities (from latest @adamtooze.bsky.social chartbook) 02512
Jo Michell @jomichell.bsky.social · 29/09/2026The most sensible MPC member, by a margin. www.ft.com/content/4aa0... 1108
Reposted by Jo MichellEliot Higgins @eliothiggins.bsky.social · 29/09/2026If the last 15 years of work on things like MH17 and chemical weapon use tells me anything is you'll need a lot more than mere evidence to change the mind of any denialist. 13595158
Reposted by Jo MichellKarthik Sankaran @rajakorman.bsky.social · 27/09/2026Have I mentioned that... 33412
Reposted by Jo MichellDavid Klemperer @dmk1793.bsky.social · 26/09/2026Yes - which is why there are real limits to how far the left can and should lean into “cost of living” politics 0506
Jo Michell @jomichell.bsky.social · 26/09/2026Good post. At some point we are going to have to confront the fact that those who live materially comfortable lives may have to cut back a bit on what are effectively luxuries (even if they are now regarded as necessities). 3477
Reposted by Jo MichellKatie Martin @katie0martin.ft.com · 26/09/2026This shitshow in bonds is the perfect environment for an accident. Fun! Me, 300 free clicks Bond ructions point to new danger zone in markets - as.ft.com/r/95199679-b...as.ft.comBond ructions point to new danger zone in marketsSell-offs of this scale and speed have the potential to light fires in other parts of the financial system 611224
Jo Michell @jomichell.bsky.social · 26/09/2026I don’t think we usually learn much from these hedge fund vox pops but “the yield curve is flattening, actually” seems to contain some information. 120
Reposted by Jo MichellAditya Dasgupta @adasgupta.bsky.social · 25/09/2026Interesting: www.nber.org/papers/w35720nber.orgDoes AI Assistance Enhance or Erode Expertise? Evidence from a Three-Month Field Experiment in Patent DraftingFounded in 1920, the NBER is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting economic research and to disseminating research findings among academics, public policy makers, an... 063
Jo Michell @jomichell.bsky.social · 25/09/2026There’s a not much distance between ‘fiscal responsibility’ and ‘making it impossible for your current and future workers to actually work’. www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...bbc.co.ukSouth Tyneside Council nursery closures decision 'devastating'Councillors confirm that all 10 Stanley's nurseries in South Tyneside will close by July 2027. 2154
Reposted by Jo MichellJoseph Cotterill @jsphctrl.ft.com · 24/09/2026The Great Global Bond Sell-Off™ doesn't really include emerging markets so far, at least in their external debt. The yield premium of EM US dollar bonds over Treasury bonds keeps falling, and issuance has stayed pretty strong. www.ft.com/content/e3c7...ft.comEmerging markets shrug off Iran war in record foreign borrowing spreeFallout from conflict, rising interest rates and a strong dollar have not dented investor appetite for EM bonds 1289
Jo Michell @jomichell.bsky.social · 24/09/2026I find it increasingly difficult to believe that this is the result of tech firm bond issuance. I’m also dubious about simple supply and demand (i.e. ‘it’s the deficit stupid) stories. 3322
Reposted by Jo MichellDuncan Weldon @duncanweldon.bsky.social · 24/09/2026‘This is playing into his hands’/‘this will allow him to play the martyr card’/‘this will help with his fundraising’ are all really bad takes. Criminals should be arrested and charged with crimes. 161776281
Jo Michell @jomichell.bsky.social · 24/09/2026Minsky meets AI meets 2006 subprime. Feels unpleasantly plausible. 1113
Reposted by Jo MichellToby Nangle @tobyn.bsky.social · 24/09/2026But … the overall stock of duration-weighted assets represented by US IG corporate bonds ISN’T rising fast 3183
Reposted by Jo MichellToby Nangle @tobyn.bsky.social · 24/09/2026But the chart is wrong. Here’s correct version. Still, an eighth of UST issuance is big?!? 3102
Jo Michell @jomichell.bsky.social · 24/09/2026As ever, Toby asks the right questions and adds a whole lot of value with his answers. 010
Jo Michell @jomichell.bsky.social · 23/09/2026I remember an old comp sci joke: some people see a glass half full, some see a glass half empty, but the computer scientist sees a glass twice as large as it needs to be. 1140
Jo Michell @jomichell.bsky.social · 23/09/2026‘You can’t find a clever way around Goodhart’s Law by saying “when a measure becomes a target, it can still be a good measure if you pretend it isn’t a target”’ — @dsquareddigest.bsky.social on the TSC and the OBR. backofmind.substack.com/p/headroom-o...backofmind.substack.comheadroom on the headroomoffice of budget irresponsibility, part 1 285
Reposted by Jo MichellDan Davies @dsquareddigest.bsky.social · 23/09/2026Also it needs its name changed. You can't do neutral policy analysis when there is a huge politicised slogan hanging over the door and printed on the letterhead 2122
Jo Michell @jomichell.bsky.social · 23/09/2026I wonder if having one’s recommendations roundly rejected by a Select Committee counts as #impact from the point of view of the REF 181
Jo Michell @jomichell.bsky.social · 23/09/2026Reposting this in light of the TSC report today which quotes extensively from this — and rejects it thoroughly. 001
Jo Michell @jomichell.bsky.social · 23/09/2026Unexpected shot … chaser this morning. Here’s the shot. www.theguardian.com/business/202...theguardian.comCritics of UK government’s economic forecaster are ‘shooting the messenger’, say MPsTreasury committee rejects calls for fundamental reform of independent watchdog the Office for Budget Responsibility 42510
Jo Michell @jomichell.bsky.social · 22/09/2026Yeah, maybe I'll skip the news break and get on with my admin. 071
Jo Michell @jomichell.bsky.social · 21/09/2026Not sure there are many Kalecki heads on this website but I'm going to give this a try anyway. If this isn't your cup of tea, you might want to hit mute now... 36013
Jo Michell @jomichell.bsky.social · 20/09/2026The kids just asked my why the 1p coin has a friendly robot on it and flatly refused to accept my answer. 241
Reposted by Jo MichellDavid Higham @oldtrotter.bsky.social · 19/09/2026Quite right too. Unaccountable wealth and the power that goes with it is in danger of doing to capitalism what mass unemployment threatened to do in the 1930s. 0256
Jo Michell @jomichell.bsky.social · 18/09/2026This guy sounds sensible. I’ve long been a big fan of Raspberry Pi, and this hasn’t done anything to change my mind. giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/... Raspberry Pi founder Eben Upton: ‘I’m an omni-geek’ 2259
Jo Michell @jomichell.bsky.social · 16/09/2026Faisal Islam citing a Black Hole in the finances in discussion with @evanhd.bsky.social on PM. Must be a budget incoming … 191
Jo Michell @jomichell.bsky.social · 16/09/2026Presumably once gilt yields have dropped, growth has surged and tax revenues leapt, you can reinstate the welfare spending that Haldane implies must be cut -- in same way that we did after Osborne generated a boom using precisely this policy mechanism. 53210
Reposted by Jo MichellGeorge Pearkes @peark.es · 15/09/2026Diesel new highs, China crude making new record premiums vs Brent, backwardation accelerating, tanker rates exploding. All of this suggests the crude market is tightening rapidly because China has stopped relying on strategic draws. Much more impt than the US SPR if it sustains. 17658168
Reposted by Jo MichellAndy Bruce (Reuters) @bruceandy.bsky.social · 16/09/2026Andy Haldane asserts that the "markets now suspect that this is a traditional tax and spend socialist government". Yes, gilt yields have risen loads - but there isn't a clear signal in the market that fiscal worries are behind it. 4137
Jo Michell @jomichell.bsky.social · 16/09/2026Is this really the best the Tories can manage in response to the CPI release? 271
Jo Michell @jomichell.bsky.social · 16/09/2026Good piece from Michael Jacobs on the UK's growth model and options for Burnham. www.newstatesman.com/ideas/2026/0...newstatesman.comAndy Burnham's growing painsThe new Prime Minister has set himself a fierce challenge: remaking Britain's economic order 110
Reposted by Jo MichellTom Haddon @tomh-analyst.bsky.social · 16/09/2026Well that's relatively encouraging, and looks to have halted the upside price pressure around the $108/bbl Brent level. For now. 263