Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 13hWe have something coming down the line on this and I will die on the STV hill. 191
Reposted by Devolved Election ProjectionsIreland Election Projections @irishelection.bsky.social · 05/09/2026Our projection on the latest Ireland Thinks / @independent.ie poll: ☘️ Sinn Féin — 45 Seats ⭐ Fine Gael — 40 🟩 Fianna Fáil — 39 🟪 Social Democrats — 21 🌳 Aontú — 8 🟢 Independent Ireland — 8 🌹 Labour — 7 💬 Independent — 6 Make your own on: irishelections.ie/general/ 163
Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 04/09/2026I for one am shocked to hear that JL Partners are involved in this. I just wish there had been warning signs and that someone had contacted the Telegraph about at the time. Or written about it in the Election Report. www.electionanalysis.uk/scottish-ele...static.klipy.comFuturama Fry: I Am Shocked, Not That ShockedALT: Futurama Fry: I Am Shocked, Not That Shocked 04317
Reposted by Devolved Election ProjectionsMark McGeoghegan @markmcgeoghegan.bsky.social · 17/08/2026This is a fun wee tool, but also a really good educational tool for helping folks to understand how demographics affect secessionism in Scotland. Kudos @eoghanly.bsky.social 0166
Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 16/08/2026Our new Scottish Indy Calculator is out today in the @scotnational.bsky.social, move the sliders to shift party supporters and demographics one way or the other. devolvedelections.co.uk/scottish-ind... www.thenational.scot/news/2646638...thenational.scotNew interactive polling tool maps how Scottish independence can be won or lostA NEW polling tool which maps out how Scottish independence could be won or lost has been launched ... 0127
Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 31/07/2026Can someone explain the reason for not declaring the result of Round 1 in Greater Manchester? It's standard practice when we count STV. 3143
Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 27/07/2026NI party support continues to converge towards an evenly divided clump. 061
Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 27/07/2026Our projection on the latest @belfasttelegraph.co.uk / @lucidtalk.bsky.social poll. ☘️ SF — 21 🦁 DUP — 17 🌹 SDLP — 15 🔷 UUP — 14 Ⓣ TUV — 9 🤝 AP — 8 🌱 GP — 3 ✊ PBP — 2 ⚫ Ind — 1 devolvedelections.co.uk/northern-ire... 2104
Reposted by Devolved Election ProjectionsJack Russell @jackru.bsky.social · 26/07/2026Four more great additions to this starter pack – @eoghanly.bsky.social and @ayushi31.bsky.social , founders of @devolvedelections.bsky.social and @irishelection.bsky.social . Welcome to Bluesky! Please follow, share, and as always let me know of other accounts to add 💙 go.bsky.app/EYkze8J 131
Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 22/07/2026As we await the latest LucidTalk poll, here is our current Nowcast for next May's Assembly election. ☘️ SF — 23 🦁 DUP — 21 🤝 AP — 13 🔷 UUP — 11 🌹 SDLP — 10 Ⓣ TUV — 8 🌱 GP — 3 ✊ PBP — 1 devolvedelections.co.uk/northern-ire... 171
Reposted by Devolved Election ProjectionsElectoral Reform Society @electoralreform.bsky.social · 16/07/2026Welsh pilots showed that using existing public data, thousands of voters can be added automatically. This smart approach removes the need for individuals to opt-in, making registration seamless and effective. The rest of the UK should follow suit. buff.ly/JDgdxwcbuff.lyWales becomes the first UK nation to introduce Automatic Voter RegistrationLast week, the Welsh Government laid new regulations to introduce Automatic Voter Registration (AVR) across all 22 Welsh local authorities ahead of the 2027 local elections. This marks a 03528
Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 13/07/2026Our latest projection for the London Assembly in the Evening Standard today! Labour — 11 Seats Greens — 5 Conservatives — 4 Reform — 3 Liberal Democrats — 2 From: @mileendinstitute.bsky.social / @savanta.bsky.social devolvedelections.co.uk/london/ 162
Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 09/07/2026It's gigantic, well-publicised, deliberate, hate crime. What excuses are loyalist leaders and the English media going to make for it? 062
Reposted by Devolved Election ProjectionsJWexTheSpa @jwsidders.bsky.social · 20/06/2026A shirtless white man, in the street with a knife in his hand, having attacked and wounded five people, allegedly shouting anti-Muslim slogans is the sixth story on the BBC UK news page. There is absolutely no doubt at all this would be the lead story if attacker and intended victims were reversed. 511831547
Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 20/06/2026Last week far-right terrorists sent children to burn the homes of black people in Belfast. Today a man wandered around Edinburgh attacking Muslims with an ax. We need to stop validating to these racist, terrorist, thugs by pretending that their concerns are 'legitimate'. 06622
Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 19/06/202655% - 35%. They did not get lucky. 060
Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 16/06/2026Makerfield's polls are 'herded'. They're nonsense. So we have absolutely no idea who's winning or by how much. 🧵 140
Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 13/06/2026Last week there were a handful of bigots following orders from terror gangs and foreign agitators. Today there were thousands of us with legitimate concerns about the people who are actually damaging our wee country. #NoPasarán 0223
Reposted by Devolved Election ProjectionsColman O'Sullivan @colmanos.bsky.social · 13/06/2026Thousands have turned out for an Anti-Racism rally in Belfast city centre, organised by United Against Racism and supported by Trade Unions 168147193528
Reposted by Devolved Election ProjectionsHannah Graham @drhannahgraham.bsky.social · 13/06/2026A wee group of angry balaclava and mask-wearing anti-immigration guys tried to stop the good people of Glasgow showing solidarity with migrants and standing up to racism and fascism. Well, the far right are far outnumbered... #RefugeesWelcome #MigrantsWelcome #NeighboursNotStrangers #Glasgow 17471212183
Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 12/06/2026You can only come to this view if you: A. Know absolutely nothing about Northern Ireland. B. Are too lazy to use Google. **And** C. Are a racist. 061
Reposted by Devolved Election ProjectionsLizzie Dearden @lizziedearden.bsky.social · 10/06/2026The family of the Belfast stabbing victim have released a statement saying - like the family of Henry Nowak last week - that the attack should not be used to "divide people or fuel hostility" They condemned disorder and praised the "valuable contribution" by migrants inews.co.uk/news/politic... 212092827
Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 10/06/2026If you think the solution to a horrific crime is to commit a bunch of horrific crimes then you are part of the problem. I hope the PSNI come down like a ton of bricks on the orchestrators of last night, not just their 15 year old foot soldiers. 0174
Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 08/06/2026We can also just do both! Standing on the stage is a good tradition, keep it. Having an official website with basic results and Scottish list results is not hard. 050
Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 07/06/2026Our projection based on the latest Liverpool University poll: ☘️ SF — 25 🦁 DUP — 20 🤝 AP — 15 🔷 UUP — 12 🌹 SDLP — 9 Ⓣ TUV — 5 🌱 GP — 4 Make your own on: devolvedelections.co.uk/northern-ire... 163
Reposted by Devolved Election ProjectionsBallot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 28/05/2026🧵A thread on my favourite (and some random guys on Reddit's least favour, most "cringe") thing: how does the 2026 Holyrood election look with various tweaks to the system? Given this was the most disproportionate election thus far per its own rules, what could be done differently? 44213
Reposted by Devolved Election ProjectionsMark McGeoghegan @markmcgeoghegan.bsky.social · 28/05/2026Clean energy *is* cheaper energy! 2479
Reposted by Devolved Election ProjectionsIreland Election Projections @irishelection.bsky.social · 24/05/2026Our projection of Dublin Central (left) compared to real life (right). The system works! 131
Reposted by Devolved Election ProjectionsIreland Election Projections @irishelection.bsky.social · 22/05/2026Our calls of Dublin Central and Galway West as polls closed. Based on national swing, Fine Gael should take Galway West and the Social Democrats should take Dublin Central. irishelections.ie/bye-elections/ 232
Reposted by Devolved Election ProjectionsBallot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 19/05/2026Very pleased to have met @devolvedelections.bsky.social over lunch to formally accept the Award For Most Accurate Holyrood 2026 Election Projection (*Amongst Those With Fully Published Vote Share Breakdowns) 010012
Reposted by Devolved Election ProjectionsMatthew Barnfield @mbarnfield.bsky.social · 18/05/2026We would be better off without the data. Not only are constituency polls deeply unreliable, but if they have any influence on the outcome, that a) is extremely inappropriate and b) will skew our understanding of British politics. drmatthewbarnfield.substack.com/p/if-polls-p...drmatthewbarnfield.substack.comIf polls played a part, then you might be wrong about Gorton and DentonWhat the tactical voting story tells us about attempts to explain the by-election result 1148
Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 18/05/2026Delighted to be included in the post-election analysis of this year's Scottish election. Calling out MRPs, as is my duty. 0113
Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 16/05/2026This has been one of my projects for the past few weeks. I'll make it public once I've ironed out the details so you can see how some of the options work. 082
Reposted by Devolved Election ProjectionsBallot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 14/05/2026BBS Open Letter on Improving Scottish Parliament Results Reporting An open letter from Ballot Box Scotland urging significant improvements to reporting on Scottish Parliament elections; or, why does a hobbyist publish more data on the regional vote than the BBC?ballotbox.scotBBS Open Letter on Improving Scottish Parliament Results ReportingAn open letter from Ballot Box Scotland urging significant improvements to reporting on Scottish Parliament elections; or, why does a hobbyist publish more data than the BBC? 516579
Reposted by Devolved Election ProjectionsSimon Hix @simonhix.bsky.social · 10/05/2026On 7 May 2026, Britain ran a PR experiment: Scottish Parliament: a Mixed-Member Proportional system Welsh Senedd: a (new) Low-Magnitude Party List system Same day, same political context, different outcomes. Which version of PR would be better for Westminster? 🧵 33276129
Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 08/05/2026This is a ridiculous set of swings 171
Reposted by Devolved Election ProjectionsTim Bale @timbale.bsky.social · 08/05/2026For anyone wanting to release their inner nerd on the Scottish and Welsh elections, bookmark this site! devolvedelections.co.uk/results/devolvedelections.co.ukDevolved Elections - Devolved Parliament Projection ToolCreate and share your own Devolved Parliament election projections. Interactive, educational, and up-to-date! 0144
Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 08/05/2026First major shock of the day. 091
Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 08/05/2026We have our first results for the 2026 devolved elections! Two widely expected results Scotland Lib Dem: Orkney SNP: Dundee City West devolvedelections.co.uk/results/ We're also top of the accuracy league table! I know it's meaningless right now but it might be the last time it happens 062
Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 08/05/2026Results expected from midday...ish. 091
Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 08/05/2026I'll be dropping in over the day as results roll in 0152
Reposted by Devolved Election ProjectionsMake Votes Matter @makevotesmatter.bsky.social · 08/05/2026Local election results are trickling in and we're already seeing the chaotic effects of First Past the Post. In Wandsworth, the Tories are the biggest party and are one seat away from a majority on just 31% of the vote. Meanwhile, Labour got 34% of the vote - and fewer seats. 611555
Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 07/05/2026We're going to be running live results and a side by side comparison of all MRPs and lots of Projection sites. The pages are live now and will update as results come in tomorrow. Results: devolvedelections.co.uk/results/ Accuracy: devolvedelections.co.uk/accuracy/ 0188
Reposted by Devolved Election ProjectionsBallot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 07/05/2026SP26: Final Ballot Box Scotland Projection Likely range: SNP ~ 48 to 70 Reform ~14 to 26 Labour ~ 15 to 23 Green ~ 8 to 16 Conservative ~ 8 to 17 Lib Dem ~ 7 to 13 Note: Sum of minimums is *100 seats*; in other words, an estimated net of 29 seats are meaningfully to play for.ballotbox.scotSP26: Final Ballot Box Scotland ProjectionThe polls are now open, and all that's left for parties to do is get their own supporters to actually cast their ballot. In the meantime, here's a run through the most likely outcomes. 56127
Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 07/05/2026There are multiple potential different outcomes in every Senedd constituency, nothing is decided and the final seats will come down to tiny margins. Go out and vote, its just a simple X. devolvedelections.co.uk/wales-projects 071
Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 07/05/2026There are 12 Scottish constituencies with a over 25% of going to different parties, and far more than that which could flip if some of yesterday's oultying polls are right. List seats everywhere can be decided by small margins Go out and vote! devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland-pro... 0117
Reposted by Devolved Election ProjectionsBallot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 07/05/2026Polls open until 10pm for the 2026 Scottish Parliament election (an hour ago, thanks for not posting the scheduled polls open post, Buffer xoxo); the earlier you vote the better, don't let the day get away from you! Pop in en route to work, after dropping weans at nursery, or coming back from gym! 39051
Reposted by Devolved Election ProjectionsMake Votes Matter @makevotesmatter.bsky.social · 07/05/2026🗳️ Don't forget to vote today 🗳️ Vote with hope or out of frustration. Vote tactically or with your heart. Vote angry with a voting system that regularly ignores millions. Vote - and then keep demanding a better democracy where every vote is equal and all voices are heard. 523994