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Devolved Election Projections

@devolvedelections.bsky.social
679 followers 309 following 554 posts

A range of simple tools to create your own results of the Scottish, Welsh, Northern Irish and London Elections 🗳️ devolvedelections.co.uk Donate: buymeacoffee.com/devolvedelections

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Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 13h
We have something coming down the line on this and I will die on the STV hill.
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Ireland Election Projections @irishelection.bsky.social · 05/09/2026
Our projection on the latest Ireland Thinks / @independent.ie poll: ☘️ Sinn Féin — 45 Seats ⭐ Fine Gael — 40 🟩 Fianna Fáil — 39 🟪 Social Democrats — 21 🌳 Aontú — 8 🟢 Independent Ireland — 8 🌹 Labour — 7 💬 Independent — 6 Make your own on: irishelections.ie/general/
Map of Ireland by largest party, SF North and Dublin, Independents in Midlands, FF, SD, II, Ao and FG more scattered
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Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
I for one am shocked to hear that JL Partners are involved in this. I just wish there had been warning signs and that someone had contacted the Telegraph about at the time. Or written about it in the Election Report. www.electionanalysis.uk/scottish-ele...
static.klipy.com
Futurama Fry: I Am Shocked, Not That Shocked
ALT: Futurama Fry: I Am Shocked, Not That Shocked
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Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
👀
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Mark McGeoghegan @markmcgeoghegan.bsky.social · 17/08/2026
This is a fun wee tool, but also a really good educational tool for helping folks to understand how demographics affect secessionism in Scotland. Kudos @eoghanly.bsky.social
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Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 16/08/2026
Our new Scottish Indy Calculator is out today in the @scotnational.bsky.social, move the sliders to shift party supporters and demographics one way or the other. devolvedelections.co.uk/scottish-ind... www.thenational.scot/news/2646638...
thenational.scot
New interactive polling tool maps how Scottish independence can be won or lost
A NEW polling tool which maps out how Scottish independence could be won or lost has been launched ...
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Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 31/07/2026
Can someone explain the reason for not declaring the result of Round 1 in Greater Manchester? It's standard practice when we count STV.
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Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 27/07/2026
NI party support continues to converge towards an evenly divided clump.
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Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 27/07/2026
Our projection on the latest @belfasttelegraph.co.uk / @lucidtalk.bsky.social poll. ☘️ SF — 21 🦁 DUP — 17 🌹 SDLP — 15 🔷 UUP — 14 Ⓣ TUV — 9 🤝 AP — 8 🌱 GP — 3 ✊ PBP — 2 ⚫ Ind — 1 devolvedelections.co.uk/northern-ire...
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Jack Russell @jackru.bsky.social · 26/07/2026
Four more great additions to this starter pack – @eoghanly.bsky.social and @ayushi31.bsky.social , founders of @devolvedelections.bsky.social and @irishelection.bsky.social . Welcome to Bluesky! Please follow, share, and as always let me know of other accounts to add 💙 go.bsky.app/EYkze8J
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Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 22/07/2026
As we await the latest LucidTalk poll, here is our current Nowcast for next May's Assembly election. ☘️ SF — 23 🦁 DUP — 21 🤝 AP — 13 🔷 UUP — 11 🌹 SDLP — 10 Ⓣ TUV — 8 🌱 GP — 3 ✊ PBP — 1 devolvedelections.co.uk/northern-ire...
Map of NI coloured by largest party by votes.
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Electoral Reform Society @electoralreform.bsky.social · 16/07/2026
Welsh pilots showed that using existing public data, thousands of voters can be added automatically. This smart approach removes the need for individuals to opt-in, making registration seamless and effective. The rest of the UK should follow suit. buff.ly/JDgdxwc
buff.ly
Wales becomes the first UK nation to introduce Automatic Voter Registration
Last week, the Welsh Government laid new regulations to introduce Automatic Voter Registration (AVR) across all 22 Welsh local authorities ahead of the 2027 local elections. This marks a
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Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 13/07/2026
Our latest projection for the London Assembly in the Evening Standard today! Labour — 11 Seats Greens — 5 Conservatives — 4 Reform — 3 Liberal Democrats — 2 From: @mileendinstitute.bsky.social / @savanta.bsky.social devolvedelections.co.uk/london/
Winners map. Lib Dem south west, Tory North East, Reform South West, Labour rest.
Runners Up. Lab in South west, Green in Centre, Reform in North East. Rest Labour
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Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 09/07/2026
It's gigantic, well-publicised, deliberate, hate crime. What excuses are loyalist leaders and the English media going to make for it?
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JWexTheSpa @jwsidders.bsky.social · 20/06/2026
A shirtless white man, in the street with a knife in his hand, having attacked and wounded five people, allegedly shouting anti-Muslim slogans is the sixth story on the BBC UK news page. There is absolutely no doubt at all this would be the lead story if attacker and intended victims were reversed.
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Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 20/06/2026
Last week far-right terrorists sent children to burn the homes of black people in Belfast. Today a man wandered around Edinburgh attacking Muslims with an ax. We need to stop validating to these racist, terrorist, thugs by pretending that their concerns are 'legitimate'.
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Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 19/06/2026
55% - 35%. They did not get lucky.
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Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 16/06/2026
Makerfield's polls are 'herded'. They're nonsense. So we have absolutely no idea who's winning or by how much. 🧵
Convergent Opinions: Lab 49, Reform 37
More in Common: Lab 45, Reform 40
Opinium: Lab 46, Reform 41
Survation: Lab 49, Reform 39
Survation: Lab 43, Reform 40
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Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 13/06/2026
Last week there were a handful of bigots following orders from terror gangs and foreign agitators. Today there were thousands of us with legitimate concerns about the people who are actually damaging our wee country. #NoPasarán
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Colman O'Sullivan @colmanos.bsky.social · 13/06/2026
Thousands have turned out for an Anti-Racism rally in Belfast city centre, organised by United Against Racism and supported by Trade Unions
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Hannah Graham @drhannahgraham.bsky.social · 13/06/2026
A wee group of angry balaclava and mask-wearing anti-immigration guys tried to stop the good people of Glasgow showing solidarity with migrants and standing up to racism and fascism. Well, the far right are far outnumbered... #RefugeesWelcome #MigrantsWelcome #NeighboursNotStrangers #Glasgow
Photo of a small group of mostly men wearing black, with masks and balaclavas, surrounded by a Police Scotland cordon in the bottom of the photo, in the foreground. In the background, a very large colourful crowd of people with saltires, trade union banners, and hand-made signs in support of migrants and against racism have turned up to gather to show solidarity, and the far right guys were hoping to thwart that. They didn't.
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Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 12/06/2026
You can only come to this view if you: A. Know absolutely nothing about Northern Ireland. B. Are too lazy to use Google. **And** C. Are a racist.
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Lizzie Dearden @lizziedearden.bsky.social · 10/06/2026
The family of the Belfast stabbing victim have released a statement saying - like the family of Henry Nowak last week - that the attack should not be used to "divide people or fuel hostility" They condemned disorder and praised the "valuable contribution" by migrants inews.co.uk/news/politic...
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Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 10/06/2026
If you think the solution to a horrific crime is to commit a bunch of horrific crimes then you are part of the problem. I hope the PSNI come down like a ton of bricks on the orchestrators of last night, not just their 15 year old foot soldiers.
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Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 08/06/2026
We can also just do both! Standing on the stage is a good tradition, keep it. Having an official website with basic results and Scottish list results is not hard.
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Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 07/06/2026
Our projection based on the latest Liverpool University poll: ☘️ SF — 25 🦁 DUP — 20 🤝 AP — 15 🔷 UUP — 12 🌹 SDLP — 9 Ⓣ TUV — 5 🌱 GP — 4 Make your own on: devolvedelections.co.uk/northern-ire...
Table of above results
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Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 28/05/2026
🧵A thread on my favourite (and some random guys on Reddit's least favour, most "cringe") thing: how does the 2026 Holyrood election look with various tweaks to the system? Given this was the most disproportionate election thus far per its own rules, what could be done differently?
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Mark McGeoghegan @markmcgeoghegan.bsky.social · 28/05/2026
Clean energy *is* cheaper energy!
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Ireland Election Projections @irishelection.bsky.social · 24/05/2026
Our projection of Dublin Central (left) compared to real life (right). The system works!
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Ireland Election Projections @irishelection.bsky.social · 22/05/2026
Our calls of Dublin Central and Galway West as polls closed. Based on national swing, Fine Gael should take Galway West and the Social Democrats should take Dublin Central. irishelections.ie/bye-elections/
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Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 19/05/2026
Very pleased to have met @devolvedelections.bsky.social over lunch to formally accept the Award For Most Accurate Holyrood 2026 Election Projection (*Amongst Those With Fully Published Vote Share Breakdowns)
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Matthew Barnfield @mbarnfield.bsky.social · 18/05/2026
We would be better off without the data. Not only are constituency polls deeply unreliable, but if they have any influence on the outcome, that a) is extremely inappropriate and b) will skew our understanding of British politics. drmatthewbarnfield.substack.com/p/if-polls-p...
drmatthewbarnfield.substack.com
If polls played a part, then you might be wrong about Gorton and Denton
What the tactical voting story tells us about attempts to explain the by-election result
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Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 18/05/2026
Delighted to be included in the post-election analysis of this year's Scottish election. Calling out MRPs, as is my duty.
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Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 16/05/2026
This has been one of my projects for the past few weeks. I'll make it public once I've ironed out the details so you can see how some of the options work.
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Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 14/05/2026
BBS Open Letter on Improving Scottish Parliament Results Reporting An open letter from Ballot Box Scotland urging significant improvements to reporting on Scottish Parliament elections; or, why does a hobbyist publish more data on the regional vote than the BBC?
ballotbox.scot
BBS Open Letter on Improving Scottish Parliament Results Reporting
An open letter from Ballot Box Scotland urging significant improvements to reporting on Scottish Parliament elections; or, why does a hobbyist publish more data than the BBC?
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Simon Hix @simonhix.bsky.social · 10/05/2026
On 7 May 2026, Britain ran a PR experiment: Scottish Parliament: a Mixed-Member Proportional system Welsh Senedd: a (new) Low-Magnitude Party List system Same day, same political context, different outcomes. Which version of PR would be better for Westminster? 🧵
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Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 08/05/2026
This is a ridiculous set of swings
SNP swing in Orkney -12.9, LD +7.8
SNP swing in Shetland +5.6, LD -14.3
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Tim Bale @timbale.bsky.social · 08/05/2026
For anyone wanting to release their inner nerd on the Scottish and Welsh elections, bookmark this site! devolvedelections.co.uk/results/
devolvedelections.co.uk
Devolved Elections - Devolved Parliament Projection Tool
Create and share your own Devolved Parliament election projections. Interactive, educational, and up-to-date!
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Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 08/05/2026
First major shock of the day.
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Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 08/05/2026
We have our first results for the 2026 devolved elections! Two widely expected results Scotland Lib Dem: Orkney SNP: Dundee City West devolvedelections.co.uk/results/ We're also top of the accuracy league table! I know it's meaningless right now but it might be the last time it happens
SNP 1, Lib 1, others 0.1 Devolved elections
2 Poll Check
3 YouGov's second MRP
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Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 08/05/2026
Results expected from midday...ish.
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Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 08/05/2026
I'll be dropping in over the day as results roll in
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Make Votes Matter @makevotesmatter.bsky.social · 08/05/2026
Local election results are trickling in and we're already seeing the chaotic effects of First Past the Post. In Wandsworth, the Tories are the biggest party and are one seat away from a majority on just 31% of the vote. Meanwhile, Labour got 34% of the vote - and fewer seats.
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Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 07/05/2026
We're going to be running live results and a side by side comparison of all MRPs and lots of Projection sites. The pages are live now and will update as results come in tomorrow. Results: devolvedelections.co.uk/results/ Accuracy: devolvedelections.co.uk/accuracy/
Results Page - Screenshot (no results)Comparison page

List of all Senedd MRPs, with links for Scotland and projections.

https://devolvedelections.co.uk/accuracy/
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Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 07/05/2026
SP26: Final Ballot Box Scotland Projection Likely range: SNP ~ 48 to 70 Reform ~14 to 26 Labour ~ 15 to 23 Green ~ 8 to 16 Conservative ~ 8 to 17 Lib Dem ~ 7 to 13 Note: Sum of minimums is *100 seats*; in other words, an estimated net of 29 seats are meaningfully to play for.
ballotbox.scot
SP26: Final Ballot Box Scotland Projection
The polls are now open, and all that's left for parties to do is get their own supporters to actually cast their ballot. In the meantime, here's a run through the most likely outcomes.
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Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 07/05/2026
There are multiple potential different outcomes in every Senedd constituency, nothing is decided and the final seats will come down to tiny margins. Go out and vote, its just a simple X. devolvedelections.co.uk/wales-projects
For full seat by seat options see: https://devolvedelections.co.uk/wales-projects
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Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 07/05/2026
There are 12 Scottish constituencies with a over 25% of going to different parties, and far more than that which could flip if some of yesterday's oultying polls are right. List seats everywhere can be decided by small margins Go out and vote! devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland-pro...
Galloway & West Dumfires, Edinburgh Central,
Dumfriesshire, Skye, Lochaber & Badenoch,
Banffshire & Buchan Coast, Aberdeenshire West,
Edinburgh Northen, Argyll & Bute, Glasgow Kelvin & Maryhill, Ettrick, Roxburgh and berwickshire,
East Lothiana nd Lammermuirs, Aberdeen Central
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Ballot Box Scotland @ballotbox.scot · 07/05/2026
Polls open until 10pm for the 2026 Scottish Parliament election (an hour ago, thanks for not posting the scheduled polls open post, Buffer xoxo); the earlier you vote the better, don't let the day get away from you! Pop in en route to work, after dropping weans at nursery, or coming back from gym!
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Make Votes Matter @makevotesmatter.bsky.social · 07/05/2026
🗳️ Don't forget to vote today 🗳️ Vote with hope or out of frustration. Vote tactically or with your heart. Vote angry with a voting system that regularly ignores millions. Vote - and then keep demanding a better democracy where every vote is equal and all voices are heard.
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