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Matthew Barnfield

@mbarnfield.bsky.social
1.1K followers 776 following 179 posts

matthewbarnfield.co.uk

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Reposted by Matthew Barnfield
Tim Bale @timbale.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Sorry to be a (Conservative) party pooper, but
centrewrite.brightblue.org.uk
The Keminaissance is a myth. The Tories are still like a weird uncle.
Badenoch’s increasing tendency towards being ‘extremely online’ has led the party to paint itself into an ‘anti-woke’ corner that, to the majority of Brits who do not spend much time online…
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Reposted by Matthew Barnfield
Marta Miori @martamiori.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
New opinion piece with @profjanegreen.bsky.social in @financialtimes.com ⬇️📊 We argue that five parties in the polls doesn't mean five-way races. What's really going on is a scramble within each bloc over who can win, fought out seat by seat.
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Reposted by Matthew Barnfield
Tim Bale @timbale.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
My review of “Sunak at 10: The Last Conservative Prime Minister” (in this month’s Literary Review - highly recommend if you love books).
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Reposted by Matthew Barnfield
Karl Pike @karlpike.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
I have a short essay in this relaunched Progressive Review from @ippr.org, called ‘A Liberalism of Public Things’. Open access link below: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...
onlinelibrary.wiley.com
A Liberalism of Public Things
The social democratic ideological tradition - including the liberalism within it - should be described more accurately and defended. Liberalism within social democracy is the liberalism of public thi...
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Matthew Barnfield @mbarnfield.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
I had fun writing the Last Word in the latest (penultimate, I believe) issue of Political Insight. Read for free here: journals.sagepub.com/share/PUST6R... tl;dr: Burnham must continue to take easy short-term wins and keep banging the drum about the long-term vision those short-term wins serve.
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Reposted by Matthew Barnfield
Peter Allen @peterallen.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
Last month, my most recent book ‘How to Think About Politics’ was released in Portuguese with the title ‘Política na vida real’ (trans. Thais Entriel). It is extremely weird but also very cool to see it on sale, a first for me: www.travessa.pt/Artigo/Detal...
A photograph of the book ‘política na vida real’ by Peter Allen.
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Reposted by Matthew Barnfield
Alejandro Fernández-Roldán @aleferna.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
🚨 New paper in @electoralstudies.bsky.social with @klaramueller.bsky.social! “How snap election calls shape vote intention uncertainty” We show that when a snap election is called, voters resolve their uncertainty about who to vote for almost *immediately* www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
sciencedirect.com
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Matthew Barnfield @mbarnfield.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
Jason very nicely summarises our @electoralstudies.bsky.social paper showing that partisan gaps in coalition expectations shrink, but do not entirely disappear, after an election result reduces uncertainty about possible coalition formation. www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
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Reposted by Matthew Barnfield
Jason Reifler @jasonreifler.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
Alas, I have no expertise to share on Swedish coalition bargaining. But, I can share an article that focuses on a potentially related topic -- the extent to which election results affect perceptions of likely coalitions (using the 2021 German election). www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
sciencedirect.com
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Matthew Barnfield @mbarnfield.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
So the donor is "overseas" if they are currently registered as an overseas voter OR they have *at any point* since Jan 2025 been not resident in the UK? Not sure how resident in the UK is defined there. So are the interpretations here wrong?: www.theguardian.com/politics/202...
theguardian.com
Reform declines to say if £72m donors returned to UK within 12-month limit
Richard Tice says contributions are legally compliant after author of review into overseas donations says rules will be applied retrospectively
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Matthew Barnfield @mbarnfield.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
Coverage of Reform's £72m keeps raising the possibility that the donations may have to be returned under the Representation of the People Bill, without engaging with the text of the bill. A lot of "Tice said, Rayner said". These seem like the relevant sections. bills.parliament.uk/bills/4080
Text from Schedule 11 in Representation of the People Bill draftText from part 4 of Representation of the People Bill draft
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Reposted by Matthew Barnfield
Political Studies @polstudies.bsky.social · 12/09/2026
IN NEW ISSUE: Is it rational to expect to win elections? @mbarnfield.bsky.social argues so-called "wishful thinking" about election outcomes is part of how voters make rational sense of their role in democracies. Read OPEN ACCESS: buff.ly/FGqoGEO @polstudiesassoc.bsky.social #polsky #polsci
Abstract
It is well established in political science that those who favour an election outcome tend to say it has a higher chance of success than those who oppose it. This tendency towards so-called ‘wishful thinking’ is often treated as a problem for democracy because it shows that voters are, as the term suggests, irrational. In this article, I make the case that partisan electoral expectations are significant not because they demonstrate widespread irrationality, but because they show how voters make sense of their role in democracies. I provide an alternative account of partisan electoral expectations as following a principle of electoral hope. On this account, partisan electoral expectations are rational in a practical, if not necessarily theoretical, sense.
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Matthew Barnfield @mbarnfield.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
'Burnham’s deeper ambitions cannot be delivered on a three-year electoral timescale.' The public agree with @robertshrimsley.bsky.social 's analysis (giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...) 👇 bsky.app/profile/mbar...
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Matthew Barnfield @mbarnfield.bsky.social · 03/09/2026
Congratulations Dan!
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Matthew Barnfield @mbarnfield.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
What I think it the most interesting part: at least *three quarters* of those who oppose net zero think that a minority of the public is in favour of it; only 4% of them think it has majority support. In reality ~60%+ of Britons support net zero.
Bar charts showing that three quarters of those who oppose net zero think that support for the policy is the minority view in the British public
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Matthew Barnfield @mbarnfield.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
As YouGov's excellent report on perceptions of public opinion makes no mention of climate change, I wrote up some relevant findings from a survey YouGov ran for me, in which I measured support and perceived support for net zero: drmatthewbarnfield.substack.com/p/how-many-b...
drmatthewbarnfield.substack.com
How many Britons think the public shares their view on net zero?
An environmental addendum to YouGov’s ‘Perceived Majority’ report
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Reposted by Matthew Barnfield
Eoghan Kelly @eoghanly.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
More from our latest @mileendinstitute.bsky.social poll: Labour are stabilising under Burnham, but are still down from 2024 which will cost seats. This includes a sneak peak at an upcoming projection from @devolvedelections.bsky.social www.standard.co.uk/news/london/...
standard.co.uk
Reform, Tories and Greens to hammer Labour with 'loss of up to 18 London MPs'
Tories could gain eight seats, the Greens four and Reform three from Labour
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Reposted by Matthew Barnfield
Philip Cowley @philipjcowley.bsky.social · 25/08/2026
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Matthew Barnfield @mbarnfield.bsky.social · 20/08/2026
Seems worth noting that the maximum PCN for fly-tipping was already raised to £5000 in July (www.gov.uk/government/n...).
paragraph reporting that maximum fines for fly-tipping have increased
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Matthew Barnfield @mbarnfield.bsky.social · 19/08/2026
@politico.eu
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Matthew Barnfield @mbarnfield.bsky.social · 19/08/2026
bsky.app/profile/mbar...
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Matthew Barnfield @mbarnfield.bsky.social · 19/08/2026
bsky.app/profile/mbar...
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Matthew Barnfield @mbarnfield.bsky.social · 19/08/2026
Andy Burnham is setting out to convince the public that ending rough sleeping is possible. He needs to: despite wide acceptance in commentary at the time of its announcement as being a feasible goal, voters think he is less likely to fulfil this pledge than any other – as I found in my polling 👇🏻
Politico playbook newsletter saying that Andy Burnham is attempting to flesh out his ambitious plans to end rough sleeping
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Matthew Barnfield @mbarnfield.bsky.social · 18/08/2026
Sure, always the way!
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Matthew Barnfield @mbarnfield.bsky.social · 18/08/2026
Please do this
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Matthew Barnfield @mbarnfield.bsky.social · 13/08/2026
Said survey bsky.app/profile/mbar...
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Matthew Barnfield @mbarnfield.bsky.social · 13/08/2026
FWIW, in a survey I ran recently, 75% of people thought the next election would take place in 2029 and not sooner. Labour voters more inclined to believe Burnham that 'there is no early election': 86%. Reform voters less inclined to believe him: 63%.
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Matthew Barnfield @mbarnfield.bsky.social · 13/08/2026
Definitely! And personally that's never been my forte... Fwiw, I would also say that it's much easier to condense and communicate complexity on TikTok than it is in, say, a radio interview.
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Matthew Barnfield @mbarnfield.bsky.social · 13/08/2026
Yes, of course (speaking for myself)! But it also forces me to clearly communicate a key point that I would pad out in academese if writing a paper – which 95% of people who come across my videos would never read anyway.
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Matthew Barnfield @mbarnfield.bsky.social · 13/08/2026
Sure, but I do think that is a) charitable and b) just a truism! Obviously the general gist here is right, and expressed eloquently, but I wouldn't claim that TikTok has no brain-rotting slop just because I've never seen one of these soap operas where people have fruit for heads on there.
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Matthew Barnfield @mbarnfield.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
Perhaps these don't meet the threshold of being "sophisticated" or "complicated" enough. But creators are using the platform to communicate ideas to which most viewers would otherwise not be exposed in their more "sophisticated" or "complicated" forms.
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Matthew Barnfield @mbarnfield.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
In mathematics and science (also mentioned) you're probably already familiar with the phenomenon that is @fryrsquared.bsky.social, to name just one: www.tiktok.com/@fryrsquared...
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Matthew Barnfield @mbarnfield.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
In politics, we have the likes of @danihpayne.bsky.social, an expert who posts excellent, nuanced deep dives into policy: www.tiktok.com/@danihpayne?... I also post my silly little political science videos to a much smaller audience: www.tiktok.com/@drmatthewba...
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Matthew Barnfield @mbarnfield.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
Multiple historians have huge followings on TikTok, e.g.: "Archeodeath": www.tiktok.com/@archaeodeat... Dr Jean Menzies: www.tiktok.com/@jeansthough... Alice Loxton: www.tiktok.com/@history_ali... (approaching 1 million followers)
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Matthew Barnfield @mbarnfield.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
Here is a TikTok creator with well over 150,000 followers who posts complex economics videos that get tens of thousands, hundreds of thousands, or in some cases millions of views: @henryfudgeofficial.bsky.social www.tiktok.com/@henryfudgeo...
tiktok.com
Henry Fudge's Creator Profile
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Matthew Barnfield @mbarnfield.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
It is claimed here (43:10) that "there are certain kinds of information that are just not going to get communicated" on TikTok, because he has "never watched a TikTok in which somebody makes a complicated economic argument" or "sophisticatedly explains history". Hm. open.spotify.com/episode/6P31...
open.spotify.com
The History of Bad Ideas: Short-Form Video
Past Present Future · Episode
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Matthew Barnfield @mbarnfield.bsky.social · 11/08/2026
If you can't wait, this post on there from a little while ago touches on very similar themes, from an ongoing project I am fortunate enough to be working on with @philipjcowley.bsky.social and @karlpike.bsky.social: substack.com/@drmatthewba...
substack.com
Testing the public's patience
Even if the electorate is short-termist, it's hard to argue irrational public impatience is to blame for the prime minister's woes
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Matthew Barnfield @mbarnfield.bsky.social · 11/08/2026
There is much more in the survey that I intend to share soon! Watch this space and subscribe (for free, obv) to my Substack, where some of this will definitely appear: substack.com/@drmatthewba...
substack.com
Matthew Barnfield | Substack
Political scientist, currently British Academy Postdoctoral Fellow at Queen Mary University of London.
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Matthew Barnfield @mbarnfield.bsky.social · 11/08/2026
But will he have that long? The public don't think so. Across the board, voters expect Burnham as PM for up to three years. And three years from now is, recall, when they tend to expect the next election.
Bar chart showing that most people, including voters for all different major parties, expect Andy Burnham to be prime minister for up to three years.
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Matthew Barnfield @mbarnfield.bsky.social · 11/08/2026
But few thought he would be able to achieve these targets ahead of the next election (which most expect to take place in 2029 as scheduled). People mostly think he will need to win an election and get them done in a full parliament - if not longer, and if ever. Exception: introducing a wealth tax.
Bar chart showing the time frames in which the public expects Andy Burnham to be able to deliver some policy outcomes.
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Matthew Barnfield @mbarnfield.bsky.social · 11/08/2026
Arguably, these were in the same areas that featured most prominently in Burnham's first fortnight: multiple measures to ease pressure on the cost of living, the announcement of fiscal devolution to drive regional (and thereby national) economic growth, and the "cross-party" social care commitment.
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Matthew Barnfield @mbarnfield.bsky.social · 11/08/2026
I asked, from these options, which people think should be the top three priorities. They could also specify their own (among the few who did so, immigration was common). Three clearly emerged: the cost of living, economic growth in all regions, and a National Care Service.
Bar chart showing which policy targets respondents prioritised in survey. Only the targets in three areas have significant proportions of the public prioritising them: cost of living, regional growth, and social care.
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Matthew Barnfield @mbarnfield.bsky.social · 11/08/2026
I gave people a selection of 10 policy ambitions across a range of domains, that have either been mentioned by Burnham himself, or associated with his government. These are all concrete targets/clearly defined outcomes, not just policy areas.
List of policy outcomes that people considered in survey:

1.	Complete the largest council house building programme since the Second World War
2.	Introduce London-style integrated public transport across the country (buses, trams and trains under one ticketing and network system) 
3.	Create a National Care Service, funded like the NHS, with free personal care at the point of use
4.	Reach net zero greenhouse gas emissions, meaning the UK’s overall emissions would be balanced out by the amount removed from the atmosphere
5.	Bring an end to rough sleeping nationally
6.	Resolve the cost-of-living crisis
7.	Get the economy growing in all regions of the country
8.	Introduce proportional representation for general elections
9.	Bring essential services under public control
10.	Levy a new tax on property, land, or wealth
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Matthew Barnfield @mbarnfield.bsky.social · 11/08/2026
Will Andy Burnham run out of time? More detail (illustrated) on my polling covered here by @rmcunliffe.bsky.social for @newstatesman1913.bsky.social. The survey was in the field on 31 July, at the end of Burnham's initial policy "bonanza"...
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Matthew Barnfield @mbarnfield.bsky.social · 11/08/2026
I asked the public what they made of targets mentioned by/associated with Andy Burnham. Among these targets, their priorities were in the areas he emphasised in his first couple of weeks – but they are sceptical about the time it will take to achieve them. Write-up by @rmcunliffe.bsky.social
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Matthew Barnfield @mbarnfield.bsky.social · 04/08/2026
Thank you! Would have loved to get some Aristotle in there but I stuck with Kant so as not to complicate matters!
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Matthew Barnfield @mbarnfield.bsky.social · 01/08/2026
Excuse the thumbnail of my mug.
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Matthew Barnfield @mbarnfield.bsky.social · 01/08/2026
Week two of the Burnham "bonanza" has been less about concrete retail measures and more about indicating the direction of travel on big priorities. I wrote recently (and roughly) about how we can understand this kind of leadership in terms of "aspiration": open.substack.com/pub/drmatthe...
open.substack.com
Andy the Aspirant
Why aspiring leaders state abstract objectives light on concrete policy detail
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Matthew Barnfield @mbarnfield.bsky.social · 31/07/2026
And check them out in more detail here open.substack.com/pub/drmatthe...
open.substack.com
Reform UK: the political home of climate scepticism in Britain
As Tony Blair challenges net zero amid a record-breaking May heatwave, new data on what British voters think about environmental policy
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Reposted by Matthew Barnfield
Political Studies @polstudies.bsky.social · 29/07/2026
Focusing on centrism as a purported set of ideas – a centre beyond left and right – @karlpike.bsky.social offers a new theory of centrism as a structure for political action: a politics which oscillates between left and right. Read OPEN ACCESS: buff.ly/fRxUuSv @polstudiesassoc.bsky.social #polisky
buff.ly
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