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Eoghan Kelly

@eoghanly.bsky.social
251 followers 192 following 48 posts

Politics PhD and lead of the Polling London project at Queen Mary University of London. Co-Founder of DevolvedElections.co.uk & IrishElections.ie @devolvedelections.bsky.social @irishelection.bsky.social

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Reposted by Eoghan Kelly
Conor J. Kelly @conorjkelly.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
Thanks to @irishtimes.com for publishing this article by @dkennytcd.bsky.social and me on the criteria for calling a border poll. www.irishtimes.com/politics/202... #BorderPoll #Ireland #BorderPoll #SpéirGorm #NorthernIreland #UKPolitics #IrishPolitics
irishtimes.com
How would a Border poll on Irish unity get called in Northern Ireland?
The Belfast Agreement sets out rules for calling a unity referendum, but is vague on some details
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Eoghan Kelly @eoghanly.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
A useful guide to anyone interested in Electoral Reform in Ireland. Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland are on the way.
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Robert Saunders @robertsaunders.bsky.social · 07/09/2026
90 years ago, Parliament responded to the rise of Oswald Mosley's Blackshirts by passing the Public Order Act, which banned political uniforms, private militias and the threat of force for political objects. The debates make very resonant reading today. Here's the Liberal Robert Bernays. (Short 🧵)
You cannot conduct a fair match when one side is playing with a ball and the other with bombs and, if democracy is to survive, it must be conducted according to definite and recognised rule. One of them is that no political party should resort to any weapon other than reason and argument. The introduction of private armies, as I see it, strikes at the root of democracy. I know it is contended that the Blackshirts are not armed and, therefore, are not an army, but I do not think that argument can be upheld. … Uniformed men in military formation suggest, and are meant to suggest, the idea of force. It is no argument to reply that at this or that demonstration no force is intended. It is an inescapable fact that a uniform in politics symbolises force, to be used either now or in the future.
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Ireland Election Projections @irishelection.bsky.social · 05/09/2026
Our projection on the latest Ireland Thinks / @independent.ie poll: ☘️ Sinn Féin — 45 Seats ⭐ Fine Gael — 40 🟩 Fianna Fáil — 39 🟪 Social Democrats — 21 🌳 Aontú — 8 🟢 Independent Ireland — 8 🌹 Labour — 7 💬 Independent — 6 Make your own on: irishelections.ie/general/
Map of Ireland by largest party, SF North and Dublin, Independents in Midlands, FF, SD, II, Ao and FG more scattered
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Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
I for one am shocked to hear that JL Partners are involved in this. I just wish there had been warning signs and that someone had contacted the Telegraph about at the time. Or written about it in the Election Report. www.electionanalysis.uk/scottish-ele...
static.klipy.com
Futurama Fry: I Am Shocked, Not That Shocked
ALT: Futurama Fry: I Am Shocked, Not That Shocked
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Reposted by Eoghan Kelly
Tim Bale @timbale.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
Incl @mileendinstitute.bsky.social / @qmul.bsky.social London polling.
standard.co.uk
James Cleverly strong Tory candidate for London Mayor but odds on a Sadiq Khan win
Commentary: This remains Labour's election to lose, especially if Sir Sadiq runs again as London is still a Left-leaning city
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Eoghan Kelly @eoghanly.bsky.social · 28/08/2026
More from our latest @mileendinstitute.bsky.social in the @standard.co.uk.web.brid.gy The seat projection is from a forthcoming tool on @devolvedelections.bsky.social www.standard.co.uk/news/london/...
standard.co.uk
Full list of seats Labour 'could lose in London' to Reform, Tory and Green surge
City’s political map set to be transformed by fragmentation of British politics
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Eoghan Kelly @eoghanly.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
More from our latest @mileendinstitute.bsky.social poll: Labour are stabilising under Burnham, but are still down from 2024 which will cost seats. This includes a sneak peak at an upcoming projection from @devolvedelections.bsky.social www.standard.co.uk/news/london/...
standard.co.uk
Reform, Tories and Greens to hammer Labour with 'loss of up to 18 London MPs'
Tories could gain eight seats, the Greens four and Reform three from Labour
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Eoghan Kelly @eoghanly.bsky.social · 26/08/2026
More from @mileendinstitute.bsky.social polling the @standard.co.uk.web.brid.gy today, this time on who's voting for Reform. www.standard.co.uk/news/london/...
standard.co.uk
Revealed: The surprise Londoners backing Nigel Farage's Reform
Reform voters in the capital may not be as old as many people might think
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Eoghan Kelly @eoghanly.bsky.social · 25/08/2026
Our latest @mileendinstitute.bsky.social poll leads the Standard this morning, Labour have a solid lead in the next London mayoral race. The Tories and Reform scrapping for second. www.standard.co.uk/news/london/...
standard.co.uk
Sadiq Khan may face Laila Cunningham in London mayor race run-off, shock poll reveals
Nigel Farage’s party may beat the Conservatives in the battle for second place after first choice votes are counted in the next London mayoral contest
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Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 16/08/2026
Our new Scottish Indy Calculator is out today in the @scotnational.bsky.social, move the sliders to shift party supporters and demographics one way or the other. devolvedelections.co.uk/scottish-ind... www.thenational.scot/news/2646638...
thenational.scot
New interactive polling tool maps how Scottish independence can be won or lost
A NEW polling tool which maps out how Scottish independence could be won or lost has been launched ...
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Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 27/07/2026
Our projection on the latest @belfasttelegraph.co.uk / @lucidtalk.bsky.social poll. ☘️ SF — 21 🦁 DUP — 17 🌹 SDLP — 15 🔷 UUP — 14 Ⓣ TUV — 9 🤝 AP — 8 🌱 GP — 3 ✊ PBP — 2 ⚫ Ind — 1 devolvedelections.co.uk/northern-ire...
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LSE British Politics and Policy @lsepoliticsblog.bsky.social · 16/07/2026
What can Andy Burnham actually do? More charisma and better communication skills will be helpful, but what about the structural problems facing the Government? Colm Murphy @colmpm.bsky.social reflects on what's in Burnham's power to do as the new Prime Minister. blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandp...
blogs.lse.ac.uk
What can Andy Burnham actually do? | LSE British Politics
Andy Burnham might be more charismatic than Keir Starmer but the problems he is inheriting go beyond personality. Can he really make a difference?
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Reposted by Eoghan Kelly
Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 13/07/2026
Our latest projection for the London Assembly in the Evening Standard today! Labour — 11 Seats Greens — 5 Conservatives — 4 Reform — 3 Liberal Democrats — 2 From: @mileendinstitute.bsky.social / @savanta.bsky.social devolvedelections.co.uk/london/
Winners map. Lib Dem south west, Tory North East, Reform South West, Labour rest.
Runners Up. Lab in South west, Green in Centre, Reform in North East. Rest Labour
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Eoghan Kelly @eoghanly.bsky.social · 13/07/2026
Our latest Mile End Institure/Savanta poll finds Labour on course to win the next Mayor of London election & remain the largest party in the Assembly. @savanta.bsky.social @standard.co.uk.web.brid.gy @mileendinstitute.bsky.social @devolvedelections.bsky.social www.standard.co.uk/news/london/...
standard.co.uk
Sadiq Khan 'on course' to win fourth term as London Mayor
Exclusive: Sir Sadiq would be re-elected to City Hall in 2028 after second preference votes are transferred, according to a new poll
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Ireland Election Projections @irishelection.bsky.social · 28/06/2026
Our projection based on the latest RedC / @businesspost.bsky.social poll ☘️ Sinn Féin — 44 Seats ⭐ Fine Gael — 36 🟩 Fianna Fáil — 32 🟪 Social Democrats — 28 💬 Independent — 10 🌹 Labour — 7 🟢 Independent Ireland — 7 ✊ PBP-S — 5 🌳 Aontú — 4 🌱 Green — 1 irishelections.ie
Map coloured by largest party: Very scattered colours
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Conor J. Kelly @conorjkelly.bsky.social · 21/05/2026
1/5 Delighted to say that my first book, Explaining Northern Ireland Party Stances on the EU: Dividing Lines Before and After Brexit, is now available for pre-order with Routledge. It’s been a long road, and I’m very glad to be able to share it. www.routledge.com/Explaining-N...
routledge.com
Explaining Northern Ireland Party Stances on the EU: Dividing Lines Before and After Brexit
This book explores the European stances of three of Northern Ireland’s political parties, culminating in one of the most tumultuous episodes in recent UK, Irish, and European politics. It examines how...
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Reposted by Eoghan Kelly
Ireland Election Projections @irishelection.bsky.social · 22/05/2026
Our calls of Dublin Central and Galway West as polls closed. Based on national swing, Fine Gael should take Galway West and the Social Democrats should take Dublin Central. irishelections.ie/bye-elections/
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Tim Bale @timbale.bsky.social · 18/05/2026
"The focus on MRPs throughout the 2026 Holyrood campaign led to fewer polls, cost more money, and produced erratic claims due to some poor, or at least not transparent, methodological practices. The campaign highlights that whilst MRPs can add value, they remain a...fallible source of information."
electionanalysis.uk
MRPs: A false dawn - UK Election Analysis
Dr Eoghan Kelly Postdoctoral Researcher leading the Mile End Institute’s, Queen Mary University of London’s Polling London Project. He has lectured on quantitative methods at Queen’s University, Belfa...
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Mark McGeoghegan @markmcgeoghegan.bsky.social · 18/05/2026
I have some polling-retrospective content coming out later this week, but I can't do much better on the Q of MRPs than @eoghanly.bsky.social. On aggregate, they were useless and negatively impacted election coverage.
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Saskia Daniel @saskiadanielceramics.com · 30/04/2026
This is quite the story.
bbc.co.uk
BBC obtains Northamptonshire Police video of woman's arrest
Nadine Buzzard-Quashie speaks for first time about her
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Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 30/04/2026
We ran the election 1000 times using the Monte Carlo method, these are the most likely outcomes for each constituency. You can instantly run 1000 more variations here: devolvedelections.co.uk/wales-projects
Top 5 most likely seat outcomes for each constituency (photo 1 of 2).

More info: https://devolvedelections.co.uk/wales-projectsTop 5 most likely seat outcomes for each constituency (photo 2 of 2).

More info: https://devolvedelections.co.uk/wales-projects
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Reposted by Eoghan Kelly
Josh Pizzuto-Pomaco @joshpizpom.bsky.social · 29/04/2026
Exclusive: Polling suggests the SNP is clinging to leads in three Edinburgh seats. But the Lib Dems and Greens are in pursuit. And projections suggest it is just as "reasonably likely" that the SNP loses or wins all three. @heraldscotland.bsky.social www.heraldscotland.com/news/2606185...
heraldscotland.com
SNP could be set for major losses in three Edinburgh battleground constituencies
The SNP faces significant challenges from the Liberal Democrats, Labour and the Green Party in four regional constituencies.
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Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 29/04/2026
In our Monte Carlo system, which tests 1000x variations of the election, Reform win the most seats 59% of the time with Plaid Cymru winning 41%. Their mean number of seats is just 1 more than Plaid's so its very, very close. devolvedelections.co.uk/wales-projects
Mean number of seats:
Reform 33
Plaid 32
Labour 14
Green 8
Consevative 6
Lib Dem 3
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Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 27/04/2026
Our Monte Carlo system which runs 1000 variations of this election generally finds: SNP 58-62 Reform 18-22 Lab 16-18 Green 10-13, Con 10-12 LD 9-11 devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland-pro...
Beeswarm of above numbers.
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Reposted by Eoghan Kelly
Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 20/04/2026
On the topic of MRPs being effectively useless, I think the Telegraph/JL Poll messed up their own D'Hondt calculations. The real numbers are: SNP: 57 Labour:21 Conservatives: 13 Liberal Democrats: 8 Greens: 11 Reform: 19 This is really basic stuff.
Seats under various MRP Projections

More In Common, YouGov, FindOutNow, JL Partners

SNP 57	67	67	57
Labour 16	15	14	21
Conservatives 12	7	12	13
Liberal Democrats 14	9	8	8
Greens 8	11	13	11
Reform 22	20	15	19
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Eoghan Kelly @eoghanly.bsky.social · 15/04/2026
The least densely populated census areas according to the latest census: Garrison & Belcoo When I tell people I'm from the middle of nowhere, I mean it.
Electoral Ward  	Local Government District 	Electoral Ward population (2021)	Density (/km2) Area (km2)
Belcoo and Garrison Fermanagh and Omagh	2,644	13.07	202.26
Glenelly Valley	Derry City and Strabane	3,403	13.25	256.90
Torr Head and Rathlin	Causeway Coast and Glens	3,597	14.21	253.11
Owenkillew	Fermanagh and Omagh	2,698	14.40	187.30
Glenderg		Derry City and Strabane	3,200	15.09	212.05
Belleek and Boa	Fermanagh and Omagh	3,123	15.94	195.90
Florence Court and Kinawley	Fermanagh and Omagh	2,883	17.61	163.75
Slemish	Mid and East Antrim	3,207	17.90	179.17
Derrygonnelly	Fermanagh and Omagh	2,898	18.00	160.98
Drumquin	Fermanagh and Omagh	2,910	18.38	158.31
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Owen Winter @owenwntr.bsky.social · 12/04/2026
trying to do a NYT-style swing map but the swings are too mad
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Europe Elects @europeelects.bsky.social · 12/04/2026
National Parliament Election in Hungary today 🇭🇺 🇪🇺 Turnout as of 9 a.m. is significantly higher than in previous elections. Plotting the 2026–2022 turnout change against Fidesz–KDNP's 2022 vote share reveals no clear pattern. #Hungary Explore live: europeelects.eu/2026/04/04/n...
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Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 12/04/2026
The latest in our party by party analysis: Prepping for Opposition: Reform in Wales devolvedelections.co.uk/blog/reform-...
Reform 35
Plaid Cymru 33
Labour 13
Greens 8
Conservatives 4
Liberal Democrats 3
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Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 10/04/2026
We've got a new addition to the system to show how much uncertainty there is in this - and any - projection. Picture 1 is our current Welsh Nowcast. Pictures 2 & 3 are the same numbers but with Random Regional Variaton added. devolvedelections.co.uk/wales/
Seats
Reform 35 
Plaid Cyrmu 33
Labour 13
Green 8
Conservative 4
Lib Dem 3Seats
Reform 34
Plaid Cyrmu 34
Labour 14
Green 6
Conservative 5
Lib Dem 3Seats
Reform 32
Plaid Cyrmu 34
Labour 16
Green 7
Conservative 4
Lib Dem 3
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Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 30/03/2026
Devolved Elections is delighted to announce a partnership with @electheruk.bsky.social to project the number of female candidates for the upcoming Scottish and Welsh elections. Currently, we expect Scotland to have a much more even gender split than Wales. devolvedelections.co.uk/blog/devolve...
devolvedelections.co.uk
Devolved Elections - Devolved Parliament Projection Tool
Create and share your own Devolved Parliament election projections. Interactive, educational, and up-to-date!
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Conor J. Kelly @conorjkelly.bsky.social · 23/03/2026
Resharing my new article “The legacy of ‘cash for ash’ in Northern Ireland: instrumental, cultural, and myth perspectives” @eoghanly.bsky.social @muirismac.bsky.social @qubelfastofficial.bsky.social @ballioloxford.bsky.social @politicsoxford.bsky.social www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
tandfonline.com
The legacy of ‘cash for ash’ in Northern Ireland: instrumental, cultural, and myth perspectives
This article examines the progress made in reforming the Northern Ireland Civil Service in the wake of the Renewable Heat Incentive scandal and resulting inquiry. It uses Northern Ireland Audit Off...
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Tim Bale @timbale.bsky.social · 04/03/2026
Personally, I'd have gone with the fact that "one in five (22%) also supported it for non-white citizens whose parents were born in the UK" for the headline. 😱
theguardian.com
Most Reform members believe non-white UK citizens born abroad should be forced or encouraged to leave, poll finds
Nigel Farage’s recent efforts to woo centre-ground voters may cause tension in party’s right flank, says Hope Not Hate
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Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 01/03/2026
We have a new system almost ready to go which accounts for the fact that a lot of Green voters won't have a Green candidate on the ballot. We'll launch it once the Greens confirm which seats they're contesting. If anyone has the list please send it over!
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Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 25/02/2026
People are welcome to make projections based on whatever method they like. But, the entirely unsurprising claim that 25% of Labour voters prefer the SNP to Reform does not mean they will go out and vote for the SNP in places Reform have never stood a candidate!
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Dr Adam Evans @a-b-evans.bsky.social · 25/02/2026
For those interested in devolution and public policy disasters, this is an interesting paper on the 'cash for ash' scandal, the RHI inquiry and what the crisis and the response to the inquiry tells us about Northern Ireland's governance #devolution #stormont
tandfonline.com
The legacy of ‘cash for ash’ in Northern Ireland: instrumental, cultural, and myth perspectives
This article examines the progress made in reforming the Northern Ireland Civil Service in the wake of the Renewable Heat Incentive scandal and resulting inquiry. It uses Northern Ireland Audit Off...
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Eoghan Kelly @eoghanly.bsky.social · 18/02/2026
Scotland is about to demonstrate how badly FPTP performs when you through a load of parties at it, fortunately the regional list will mask it a bit. At Westminster there is no List to hide the absurdity of these results.
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Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 18/02/2026
Our projection on the latest @moreincommonuk.bsky.social poll for May's Scottish Parliament election: 🎗️ SNP — 57 🌹 Lab — 18 🌳 Con — 12 🌱 GP — 10 🐤 LD — 12 ➡️ Ref — 20 🔵 Alba — 0 ⚪Other — 0 devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/
Table showing results in tweetParliament showing results in tweet, SNP-Green needed for a majority
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Conor J. Kelly @conorjkelly.bsky.social · 16/02/2026
Delighted to see my new article, co-authored with @eoghanly.bsky.social and @muirismac.bsky.social, published today! Title: 'The legacy of ‘cash for ash’ in Northern Ireland: instrumental, cultural, and myth perspectives' Read it open access here: www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
tandfonline.com
The legacy of ‘cash for ash’ in Northern Ireland: instrumental, cultural, and myth perspectives
This article examines the progress made in reforming the Northern Ireland Civil Service in the wake of the Renewable Heat Incentive scandal and resulting inquiry. It uses Northern Ireland Audit Off...
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Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 13/02/2026
Our projection for May's Senedd election based on the latest More in Common poll: ➡️ Ref — 37 🌼 PC — 25 🌹 Lab — 19 🌳 Con — 10 🐤 LD — 3 🌱 GP — 2 From devolvedelections.co.uk/wales/
Table showing same results as in tweet. Gallagher Index of 6.54 (Medium) and Effective Number of Parties of 3.73 (High).Parliament chart showing distribution of seats. Lib Dems decide if left or right gain majority.
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Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 08/02/2026
Try it for yourself! devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland-pro... www.thenational.scot/news/2583446...
devolvedelections.co.uk
Devolved Elections - Devolved Parliament Projection Tool
Create and share your own Devolved Parliament election projections. Interactive, educational, and up-to-date!
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Ireland Election Projections @irishelection.bsky.social · 01/02/2026
An IrishElections projection on the latest Ireland/Thinks Sunday Independent poll ☘️ Sinn Féin — 44 Seats 🟩 Fianna Fáil — 41 ⭐ Fine Gael — 36 🟪 Social Democrats — 21 🌹 Labour — 9 🟢 Independent Ireland — 8 💬 Independent — 6 🌳 Aontú — 4 ✊ PBP-S — 4 🌱 Green — 1 From irishelections.ie/general
Parliament chart showing seats as stated in tweet.Table showing seats as stated in tweet.
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Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 29/01/2026
Our Projection on the latest @yougov.co.uk poll for May's Holyrood election 🎗️ SNP — 58 ➡️ Ref — 24 🌹 Lab — 17 🌱 GP — 12 🌳 Con — 9 🐤 LD — 9 devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/
Parliament of results
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Humor Satire Memes @funnysnarkyjoke.bsky.social · 16/01/2026
Oh wow. Trump got a hand-me-down Nobel Peace Prize! Did you know: It would not be the first time a Nobel laureate has given his or her medal away: in 1943 Nobel Literature laureate Knut Hamsun gave his medal to Nazi propaganda minister Joseph Goebbels.
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Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 13/01/2026
A projection based on a remarkable @yougov.co.uk for @itvnews.bsky.social and @cardiffuni.bsky.social 🌼 PC — 40 ➡️ Ref — 27 🌱 GP — 15 🌹 Lab — 6 🌳 Con — 5 🐤 LD — 3 devolvedelections.co.uk/wales/
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Eoghan Kelly @eoghanly.bsky.social · 09/01/2026
It is very on-brand for Reform to announce their 2028 London Mayoral candidate before either their 2026 Senedd leader or 2026 Holyrood leader. Priorities. www.standard.co.uk/news/politic...
standard.co.uk
Labour in pole position to win 2028 race for London Mayor, new survey reveals
EXCLUSIVE: Sir Sadiq Khan’s party is on 32%, the Conservatives 20%, Reform 19%, the Greens 13% and Liberal Democrats 11%
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Eoghan Kelly @eoghanly.bsky.social · 08/01/2026
Labour in pole position to win 2028 race for Mayor of London, new survey reveals @mileendinstitute.bsky.social @standard.co.uk.web.brid.gy www.standard.co.uk/news/politic...
standard.co.uk
Labour in pole position to win 2028 race for London Mayor, new survey reveals
EXCLUSIVE: Sir Sadiq Khan’s party is on 32%, the Conservatives 20%, Reform 19%, the Greens 13% and Liberal Democrats 11%
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Eoghan Kelly @eoghanly.bsky.social · 06/01/2026
Our latest Mile End Institute/Savanta London Poll is out! Labour - 31% Reform - 19% Greens - 18% Cons - 17% LD - 13% @standard.co.uk.web.brid.gy @mileendinstitute.bsky.social @savanta.bsky.social www.standard.co.uk/news/politic...
standard.co.uk
Labour hits record low in London with Tories 4th behind Greens and Reform, new poll
EXCLUSIVE: Just 31% of Londoners now say they would vote for Sir Keir Starmer’s party, according to a Savanta survey, down from 43% at the 2024 General Election
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Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 30/12/2025
Exactly this. Scotland, Wales & NI are ridiculously underpolled. Between late September and Late November: - Scotland had 2 polls (1 of those was commssioned by a party) - Wales had 1 - despite one of the most remarkable by-elections in recent history. - NI had 1 Westminster had over 40.
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