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Kevin Cunningham

@kevcunningham.bsky.social
3.2K followers 321 following 83 posts

Lecturer in Politics | Fellow of the Royal Statistical Society | Fmr Targeting & Analysis @uklabour | @OULightweights | Chair MA Journalism @wearetudublin |

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Reposted by Kevin Cunningham
Jane Suiter @janesuit.bsky.social · 29/10/2025
Interesting the role of young men on Twitter and TikTok here. Much more research required into precise pathways. Appears to be a similar group to those who are anti immigrant and believe conspiracies in previous research
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Stefan Müller @stefanmueller.bsky.social · 29/10/2025
Really important and insightful analysis of the voters who spoiled their ballots in the presidential election. @kevcunningham.bsky.social also classifies open-ended survey responses to better understand the underlying reasons and motivations. ➡️ open.substack.com/pub/kevcunni...
Respondents were asked ‘Why’ they voted the way they did in an open-ended text box. These are the responses classified into groups.Open-ended survey responses – proportional sample of statements% of each voter type that spoiled their ballot as opposed to those who voted at the 2025 Irish Presidential election.% who spoiled their vote broken down by age, gender and self-reported social class.
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Kevin Cunningham @kevcunningham.bsky.social · 28/10/2025
I've completed an analysis of the spoiled voter in the link below. This is a voter who will invariably come into play in the future. kevcunningham.substack.com/p/who-are-th...
kevcunningham.substack.com
Who are the people who spoiled their ballot and why?
An initial analysis
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Stefan Müller @stefanmueller.bsky.social · 25/10/2025
Reasons for vote choice according to the Ireland Thinks polling day poll ⤵️ #Aras25 analysis.irelandthinks.ie/polling-day-... @kevcunningham.bsky.social
Which of the following was most important in making your choice?
(Select up to 2)

Connolly voters relied on Integrity & Honesty, Competence and Communication skills. Humphreys voters more likely to focus on how the candidate represented Ireland internationally.
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Kevin Cunningham @kevcunningham.bsky.social · 23/10/2025
Trying something open.substack.com/pub/kevcunni...
open.substack.com
Final poll ahead of the presidential election
Some notes on how this could end up different to the outcome
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Kevin Cunningham @kevcunningham.bsky.social · 23/10/2025
Connolly 55 Humphreys 35 Gavin 10 m.independent.ie/irish-news/p...
m.independent.ie
Catherine Connolly on course to win presidential election on first count – new Irish Independent/Ireland Thinks poll
Follow the latest developments in our live blog:
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Kevin Cunningham @kevcunningham.bsky.social · 04/08/2025
Kevin Cunningham: Catherine Connolly likeliest to be seen as ‘Continuity Michael D’ in presidential race www.independent.ie/opinion/anal...
independent.ie
Kevin Cunningham: Catherine Connolly likeliest to be seen as ‘Continuity Michael D’ in presidential race
What began as a fragmented field is rapidly resolving into a clearer contest and a potential fault line in Irish politics.
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Reposted by Kevin Cunningham
RTÉ Radio 1 @rteradio1.bsky.social · 31/07/2025
It is with profound sadness that RTÉ announces the death of radio presenter and actor Seán Rocks. Seán died last night following a brief illness at the age of 63.    Seán is survived by his beloved Catherine and sons Christian and Morgan. May he rest in peace.
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Will Jennings📉🗳️ @drjennings.bsky.social · 18/07/2025
Not all analysis!
news.sky.com
Will extending the vote to 16-year-olds benefit Labour at the next general election?
Labour have said they will extend the right to vote to 16-year-olds in time for the next general election. Sky's Data and Forensics unit assesses whether it will help them at the ballot box, and how m...
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Eoin Glackin @eoinglackin.bsky.social · 06/06/2025
New piece for @dublininquirer.com about Dublin City Council's well-regarded Neighbour Transport Scheme, that quietly went away.
dublininquirer.com
Councillors wonder what’s become of those transport schemes to make neighbourhoods safer
They recite schemes that were promised, or piloted, but seem to have gone nowhere. A council spokesperson said similar initiatives still exist.
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Kevin Cunningham @kevcunningham.bsky.social · 17/05/2025
Given that it is topical, from April's Ireland Thinks/Sunday Independent 'Should Ireland withdraw from the Eurovision Song Contest in protest against the inclusion of Israel in the contest?' Yes 55 No 37 Don't know 8
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Will Jennings📉🗳️ @drjennings.bsky.social · 02/05/2025
Nearly 800 wards/divisions in now. Reform are still doing better in areas with fewer university graduates, higher levels of employment in manufacturing and primary industries, and where UKIP did well in 2017. The evidence for a big age gradient in the Reform vote looks weak now. @news.sky.com
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John Burn-Murdoch @jburnmurdoch.ft.com · 22/04/2025
The key chart right now: Usually US economic pain is cushioned by falling bond yields and a strengthening dollar, which mean lower interest rates and more spending power for consumers. This time we’re seeing the opposite, meaning the pain will be amplified.
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Kevin Cunningham @kevcunningham.bsky.social · 17/04/2025
Yup.
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Prof David Farrell, UCD @davidfarrell-ucd.bsky.social · 04/04/2025
What a sad sight
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Will Jennings📉🗳️ @drjennings.bsky.social · 26/03/2025
Turns out a lot of people who claimed to care about freedom of speech actually don’t.
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Will Jennings📉🗳️ @drjennings.bsky.social · 26/03/2025
One of the many problems with having plain clothes secret police kidnapping people off the street in broad daylight is that nobody can tell the difference from criminals doing exactly the same thing. It makes everyone in society less safe.
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Strawbærry Narwhal ‽↙↙↙ @strawberrynarwhal.bsky.social · 14/03/2025
always a NO to gen AI
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Prof David Farrell, UCD @davidfarrell-ucd.bsky.social · 07/03/2025
Hi there @repjournal.bsky.social I've been wading through some of the earliest issues of your Journal and thought you might like this pic of your very first issue from 1908
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Kevin Cunningham @kevcunningham.bsky.social · 03/03/2025
My latest analysis in the Sunday Independent on where the median Irish voter stands on defence and housing issues. Covering the Triple Lock, NATO, Defence spending, Neutrality, EU Army, Log cabins & one-off-housing planning, tax cuts, derelict buildings... www.independent.ie/irish-news/p...
independent.ie
Kevin Cunningham: Poll shows transactional voters like the idea of back-garden cabins – and more defence spending
A prerequisite of a viable new policy is popularity — if it’s woefully unpopular with the public, it will struggle to be implemented. That’s why governments tend to “fly a kite” on some policy ideas: ...
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Kevin Cunningham @kevcunningham.bsky.social · 28/02/2025
Hard to say it but, notwithstanding one's position Zelenskyy really f**ked up today and in a way in which I'm not sure we'll recover.
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Kevin Cunningham @kevcunningham.bsky.social · 19/02/2025
I may be wrong here (and I have been!) but I will guess that this will be among the more popular initiatives. 'NIMBYism' by contrast is very much a minority sport rather than a reflection of popular opinion even in a given locality. A miniscule number of people are blocking developments these.
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Kevin Cunningham @kevcunningham.bsky.social · 28/01/2025
Exploring the decline of immigration as an issue in Irish politics: analysis.irelandthinks.ie/drop-in-asyl...
analysis.irelandthinks.ie
Immigration: the dog that didn't bark?
Immigration was the emerging issue throughout 2023 and much of 2024, yet it was perceived to be "the dog that didn't bark" in the general election. Candidates during the election reported that they di...
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Curd Knüpfer @curdknupfer.bsky.social · 09/01/2025
In case you were wondering how things are going in Germany & on X, after Elon Musk announced his support for the far-right "Alternative für Deutschland" (AfD) in the upcoming Federal election: The chart below shows sums of tweets x impressions by members of parliament over the past 7 days...🧵⤵️
Graph that shows the sum of tweets and their impressions by members of the German Bundestag (Parliament), clustered by party. The blue AfD is a clear outlier with around 400 tweets and just under 40 million impressions.
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Kevin Cunningham @kevcunningham.bsky.social · 13/01/2025
Opining again as the gov get winner's bump. m.independent.ie/irish-news/f...
m.independent.ie
FF and FG did well in our poll but stumbling blocks loom
The major winner of this poll is Fianna Fáil. It will be buoyed by hitting its highest poll in the Ireland Thinks series since January 2020. The party has benefited from a “winners’ bounce”. This is a...
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Kevin Cunningham @kevcunningham.bsky.social · 09/01/2025
It's officially 'very cold'
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Kevin Cunningham @kevcunningham.bsky.social · 08/01/2025
Interesting job: Applications to be the next Political Editor of the Irish Independent and Sunday Independent... mediahuis.staging.krakatoa.eu-2.volcanic.cloud/job/politica...
mediahuis.staging.krakatoa.eu-2.volcanic.cloud
Political Editor
Role Title: Political Editor Department: Editorial Reporting to: Group Head News   Role Purpose The Political Editor will be a key leader within the Mediahuis Ireland newsroom. They will oversee ...
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Robert (Bob) Kubinec @rmkubinec.bsky.social · 25/12/2024
For your post-Xmas #rstats reading: idealstan now has an updated vignette showing ideal point marginal effects: a new way of understanding how covariates ➡️ latent variables with noisy indicators. + an easter egg about old vs. young Democrats in the Senate 😁 saudiwin.github.io/idealstan/vi...
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Gavan Reilly @gavreilly.com · 08/12/2024
Everything You Didn’t Really Want To Know, And Therefore Didn’t Really Care To Ask, About The Seanad Elections! (🧵)
A photo of the noticeboard outside Leinster House displaying the candidates nominated to contest this year’s Seanad election.
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Kevin Cunningham @kevcunningham.bsky.social · 04/12/2024
In relation to turnout and polling. The register is unreliable of course: lots of duplication (multiple registrations, people who are deceased or abroad) on the register so this isn't necessarily a good baseline for measuring turnout.
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Richard Chambers @newschambers.bsky.social · 04/12/2024
Fine Gaelers really feel the Paschal Donohoe push over the last few days was effective - this might back that up.
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Prof David Farrell, UCD @davidfarrell-ucd.bsky.social · 01/12/2024
Great analysis by @kevcunningham.bsky.social I’d no realised there was also a Sindo/Ireland Thinks exit poll www.independent.ie/irish-news/e... Kevin Cunningham: FF-FG coalition is now so tightly knit it can only be broken up at huge risk to both parties
independent.ie
Kevin Cunningham: FF-FG coalition is now so tightly knit it can only be broken up at huge risk to both parties
What have we discovered?
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Kevin Cunningham @kevcunningham.bsky.social · 04/12/2024
The 2024 election produced a much less proportional outcome due to the relative inefficiency of the Independent/Other vote.
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Kevin Cunningham @kevcunningham.bsky.social · 04/12/2024
Only really getting to look at the data from our polling day poll now. Really interesting to see how the most important issue shifted towards the economy both during the campaign and then in particular in the final week.
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Stefan Müller @stefanmueller.bsky.social · 02/12/2024
The polls have almost nailed it. On average, @irishpollingind.bsky.social was only 0.54 points away from election result (max: 0.85). Spot on for FF and FG. Irish pollsters are better than their reputation, and online polls are not worse than face-to-face surveys. pollingindicator.com#validation
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Jane Suiter @janesuit.bsky.social · 30/11/2024
Expecting these odds for ff/fg/Independents to start moving in quite quickly? #ge24
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Kevin Cunningham @kevcunningham.bsky.social · 01/12/2024
Fitzgerald to elect Paschal Donohoe, with some transfers closing to gap. Donohoe's surplus might just about put Marie Sherlock over Gerry Hutch..?
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Kevin Cunningham @kevcunningham.bsky.social · 01/12/2024
There it is. Gannon's surplus and Fitzpatrick's elimination.
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Kevin Cunningham @kevcunningham.bsky.social · 01/12/2024
My article in @TheSundayIndo attempting an explanation of yesterday's vote together with some fresh data. m.independent.ie/irish-news/e...
m.independent.ie
Kevin Cunningham: FF-FG coalition is now so tightly knit it can only be broken up at huge risk to both parties
What have we discovered?
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Stefan Müller @stefanmueller.bsky.social · 30/11/2024
RTÉ Election Marathon Fantastic teamwork with @kevcunningham.bsky.social throughout the day! 🙌 #GE24
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Kevin Cunningham @kevcunningham.bsky.social · 30/11/2024
Great work with Stefan working on our votes to seats model taking into account the individual's vote share/quota, their ranking relative to seats, number and vote share of running mates. Transfer friendliness of FF FG may change this further. We'll have to see!
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Richard Colwell @redcceo.bsky.social · 27/11/2024
@businesspost poll 27th Nov (vs. 10th Nov) Fianna Fáil 21% (=) Fine Gael 20% (-2%) Sinn Fein 20% (+2%) Ind. Cand. 14% (-1%) Soc Dems 6% (=) Ind. Ireland 4% (+1%) Green 4% (=) Labour 4% (+1%) Aontú 4% (-1%) PBP-Solidarity 2% (=) Others 1% (=) Moe +\- 3% FW 20th-26th
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Cónal Thomas @conalthomas90.bsky.social · 27/11/2024
Our final general election Business Post/Red C poll. Fianna Fáil takes the lead as Fine Gael falls back and Sinn Féin eyes government- www.businesspost.ie/politics/red...
businesspost.ie
Red C Poll: Fianna Fáil takes the lead as Fine Gael falls back and Sinn Féin eyes government
Final poll comes ahead of last day of election campaign before Friday’s vote
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Kevin Cunningham @kevcunningham.bsky.social · 27/11/2024
'I mean they've had their ups and downs, but when all is said and done they're destined to be together.'
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Kevin Cunningham @kevcunningham.bsky.social · 27/11/2024
Prime Time Debate poll conducted today... m.independent.ie/irish-news/e...
m.independent.ie
Majority of voters think Simon Harris lost final televised debate of the election campaign – poll
Taoiseach Simon Harris’s path back to power has taken a further blow with the majority of voters believing he lost the last general election debate of the campaign, according to an opinion poll from I...
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Prof David Farrell, UCD @davidfarrell-ucd.bsky.social · 27/11/2024
Gosh
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Prof David Farrell, UCD @davidfarrell-ucd.bsky.social · 27/11/2024
A bit ambitious
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Liz Carolan @lizcarolan.com · 27/11/2024
I’ve a round up of the digital campaign for #GE24 in the Irish Times; some nuggets > FF have an attack ad on SF housing they don’t want Dubs to see > Harris uploaded 60 TikToks in 2.5 wks, plus 45 to LinkedIn, yet viral moment dominate > IFP go big on YT ads www.irishtimes.com/opinion/2024...
irishtimes.com
Liz Carolan: Will Simon Harris’s 105 social media videos or the Freedom Party’s €1,000 a day sway the election?
The winners, losers and biggest spenders of the online campaign
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Kevin Cunningham @kevcunningham.bsky.social · 26/11/2024
Previously published this housing figure before looking at this breakdown. Perceptions on who best to tackle housing entirely dependent on your housing status. Owners/non-owners. "Which of the following do you think is best to tackle each of the following issues? Housing"
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