Reposted by Kevin CunninghamJane Suiter @janesuit.bsky.social · 29/10/2025Interesting the role of young men on Twitter and TikTok here. Much more research required into precise pathways. Appears to be a similar group to those who are anti immigrant and believe conspiracies in previous research 073
Reposted by Kevin CunninghamStefan Müller @stefanmueller.bsky.social · 29/10/2025Really important and insightful analysis of the voters who spoiled their ballots in the presidential election. @kevcunningham.bsky.social also classifies open-ended survey responses to better understand the underlying reasons and motivations. ➡️ open.substack.com/pub/kevcunni... 193
Kevin Cunningham @kevcunningham.bsky.social · 28/10/2025I've completed an analysis of the spoiled voter in the link below. This is a voter who will invariably come into play in the future. kevcunningham.substack.com/p/who-are-th...kevcunningham.substack.comWho are the people who spoiled their ballot and why?An initial analysis 75524
Reposted by Kevin CunninghamStefan Müller @stefanmueller.bsky.social · 25/10/2025Reasons for vote choice according to the Ireland Thinks polling day poll ⤵️ #Aras25 analysis.irelandthinks.ie/polling-day-... @kevcunningham.bsky.social 1146
Kevin Cunningham @kevcunningham.bsky.social · 23/10/2025Trying something open.substack.com/pub/kevcunni...open.substack.comFinal poll ahead of the presidential electionSome notes on how this could end up different to the outcome 1114
Kevin Cunningham @kevcunningham.bsky.social · 23/10/2025Connolly 55 Humphreys 35 Gavin 10 m.independent.ie/irish-news/p...m.independent.ieCatherine Connolly on course to win presidential election on first count – new Irish Independent/Ireland Thinks pollFollow the latest developments in our live blog: 1123
Kevin Cunningham @kevcunningham.bsky.social · 04/08/2025Kevin Cunningham: Catherine Connolly likeliest to be seen as ‘Continuity Michael D’ in presidential race www.independent.ie/opinion/anal...independent.ieKevin Cunningham: Catherine Connolly likeliest to be seen as ‘Continuity Michael D’ in presidential raceWhat began as a fragmented field is rapidly resolving into a clearer contest and a potential fault line in Irish politics. 061
Reposted by Kevin CunninghamRTÉ Radio 1 @rteradio1.bsky.social · 31/07/2025It is with profound sadness that RTÉ announces the death of radio presenter and actor Seán Rocks. Seán died last night following a brief illness at the age of 63. Seán is survived by his beloved Catherine and sons Christian and Morgan. May he rest in peace. 711016
Reposted by Kevin CunninghamWill Jennings📉🗳️ @drjennings.bsky.social · 18/07/2025Not all analysis!news.sky.comWill extending the vote to 16-year-olds benefit Labour at the next general election?Labour have said they will extend the right to vote to 16-year-olds in time for the next general election. Sky's Data and Forensics unit assesses whether it will help them at the ballot box, and how m... 121
Reposted by Kevin CunninghamEoin Glackin @eoinglackin.bsky.social · 06/06/2025New piece for @dublininquirer.com about Dublin City Council's well-regarded Neighbour Transport Scheme, that quietly went away.dublininquirer.comCouncillors wonder what’s become of those transport schemes to make neighbourhoods saferThey recite schemes that were promised, or piloted, but seem to have gone nowhere. A council spokesperson said similar initiatives still exist. 085
Kevin Cunningham @kevcunningham.bsky.social · 17/05/2025Given that it is topical, from April's Ireland Thinks/Sunday Independent 'Should Ireland withdraw from the Eurovision Song Contest in protest against the inclusion of Israel in the contest?' Yes 55 No 37 Don't know 8 030
Reposted by Kevin CunninghamWill Jennings📉🗳️ @drjennings.bsky.social · 02/05/2025Nearly 800 wards/divisions in now. Reform are still doing better in areas with fewer university graduates, higher levels of employment in manufacturing and primary industries, and where UKIP did well in 2017. The evidence for a big age gradient in the Reform vote looks weak now. @news.sky.com 13719
Reposted by Kevin CunninghamJohn Burn-Murdoch @jburnmurdoch.ft.com · 22/04/2025The key chart right now: Usually US economic pain is cushioned by falling bond yields and a strengthening dollar, which mean lower interest rates and more spending power for consumers. This time we’re seeing the opposite, meaning the pain will be amplified. 11146231710
Reposted by Kevin CunninghamProf David Farrell, UCD @davidfarrell-ucd.bsky.social · 04/04/2025What a sad sight 0154
Reposted by Kevin CunninghamWill Jennings📉🗳️ @drjennings.bsky.social · 26/03/2025Turns out a lot of people who claimed to care about freedom of speech actually don’t. 724822
Reposted by Kevin CunninghamWill Jennings📉🗳️ @drjennings.bsky.social · 26/03/2025One of the many problems with having plain clothes secret police kidnapping people off the street in broad daylight is that nobody can tell the difference from criminals doing exactly the same thing. It makes everyone in society less safe. 32747158
Reposted by Kevin CunninghamStrawbærry Narwhal ‽↙↙↙ @strawberrynarwhal.bsky.social · 14/03/2025always a NO to gen AI 0301
Reposted by Kevin CunninghamProf David Farrell, UCD @davidfarrell-ucd.bsky.social · 07/03/2025Hi there @repjournal.bsky.social I've been wading through some of the earliest issues of your Journal and thought you might like this pic of your very first issue from 1908 0123
Kevin Cunningham @kevcunningham.bsky.social · 03/03/2025My latest analysis in the Sunday Independent on where the median Irish voter stands on defence and housing issues. Covering the Triple Lock, NATO, Defence spending, Neutrality, EU Army, Log cabins & one-off-housing planning, tax cuts, derelict buildings... www.independent.ie/irish-news/p...independent.ieKevin Cunningham: Poll shows transactional voters like the idea of back-garden cabins – and more defence spendingA prerequisite of a viable new policy is popularity — if it’s woefully unpopular with the public, it will struggle to be implemented. That’s why governments tend to “fly a kite” on some policy ideas: ... 182
Kevin Cunningham @kevcunningham.bsky.social · 28/02/2025Hard to say it but, notwithstanding one's position Zelenskyy really f**ked up today and in a way in which I'm not sure we'll recover. 910
Kevin Cunningham @kevcunningham.bsky.social · 19/02/2025I may be wrong here (and I have been!) but I will guess that this will be among the more popular initiatives. 'NIMBYism' by contrast is very much a minority sport rather than a reflection of popular opinion even in a given locality. A miniscule number of people are blocking developments these. 120
Kevin Cunningham @kevcunningham.bsky.social · 28/01/2025Exploring the decline of immigration as an issue in Irish politics: analysis.irelandthinks.ie/drop-in-asyl...analysis.irelandthinks.ieImmigration: the dog that didn't bark?Immigration was the emerging issue throughout 2023 and much of 2024, yet it was perceived to be "the dog that didn't bark" in the general election. Candidates during the election reported that they di... 010
Reposted by Kevin CunninghamCurd Knüpfer @curdknupfer.bsky.social · 09/01/2025In case you were wondering how things are going in Germany & on X, after Elon Musk announced his support for the far-right "Alternative für Deutschland" (AfD) in the upcoming Federal election: The chart below shows sums of tweets x impressions by members of parliament over the past 7 days...🧵⤵️ 18611367
Kevin Cunningham @kevcunningham.bsky.social · 13/01/2025Opining again as the gov get winner's bump. m.independent.ie/irish-news/f...m.independent.ieFF and FG did well in our poll but stumbling blocks loomThe major winner of this poll is Fianna Fáil. It will be buoyed by hitting its highest poll in the Ireland Thinks series since January 2020. The party has benefited from a “winners’ bounce”. This is a... 021
Kevin Cunningham @kevcunningham.bsky.social · 08/01/2025Interesting job: Applications to be the next Political Editor of the Irish Independent and Sunday Independent... mediahuis.staging.krakatoa.eu-2.volcanic.cloud/job/politica...mediahuis.staging.krakatoa.eu-2.volcanic.cloudPolitical EditorRole Title: Political Editor Department: Editorial Reporting to: Group Head News Role Purpose The Political Editor will be a key leader within the Mediahuis Ireland newsroom. They will oversee ... 020
Reposted by Kevin CunninghamRobert (Bob) Kubinec @rmkubinec.bsky.social · 25/12/2024For your post-Xmas #rstats reading: idealstan now has an updated vignette showing ideal point marginal effects: a new way of understanding how covariates ➡️ latent variables with noisy indicators. + an easter egg about old vs. young Democrats in the Senate 😁 saudiwin.github.io/idealstan/vi... 061
Reposted by Kevin CunninghamGavan Reilly @gavreilly.com · 08/12/2024Everything You Didn’t Really Want To Know, And Therefore Didn’t Really Care To Ask, About The Seanad Elections! (🧵) 211032
Kevin Cunningham @kevcunningham.bsky.social · 04/12/2024In relation to turnout and polling. The register is unreliable of course: lots of duplication (multiple registrations, people who are deceased or abroad) on the register so this isn't necessarily a good baseline for measuring turnout. 153
Reposted by Kevin CunninghamRichard Chambers @newschambers.bsky.social · 04/12/2024Fine Gaelers really feel the Paschal Donohoe push over the last few days was effective - this might back that up. 3131
Reposted by Kevin CunninghamProf David Farrell, UCD @davidfarrell-ucd.bsky.social · 01/12/2024Great analysis by @kevcunningham.bsky.social I’d no realised there was also a Sindo/Ireland Thinks exit poll www.independent.ie/irish-news/e... Kevin Cunningham: FF-FG coalition is now so tightly knit it can only be broken up at huge risk to both partiesindependent.ieKevin Cunningham: FF-FG coalition is now so tightly knit it can only be broken up at huge risk to both partiesWhat have we discovered? 393
Kevin Cunningham @kevcunningham.bsky.social · 04/12/2024The 2024 election produced a much less proportional outcome due to the relative inefficiency of the Independent/Other vote. 2164
Kevin Cunningham @kevcunningham.bsky.social · 04/12/2024Only really getting to look at the data from our polling day poll now. Really interesting to see how the most important issue shifted towards the economy both during the campaign and then in particular in the final week. 3237
Reposted by Kevin CunninghamStefan Müller @stefanmueller.bsky.social · 02/12/2024The polls have almost nailed it. On average, @irishpollingind.bsky.social was only 0.54 points away from election result (max: 0.85). Spot on for FF and FG. Irish pollsters are better than their reputation, and online polls are not worse than face-to-face surveys. pollingindicator.com#validation 34616
Reposted by Kevin CunninghamJane Suiter @janesuit.bsky.social · 30/11/2024Expecting these odds for ff/fg/Independents to start moving in quite quickly? #ge24 122
Kevin Cunningham @kevcunningham.bsky.social · 01/12/2024Fitzgerald to elect Paschal Donohoe, with some transfers closing to gap. Donohoe's surplus might just about put Marie Sherlock over Gerry Hutch..? 080
Kevin Cunningham @kevcunningham.bsky.social · 01/12/2024There it is. Gannon's surplus and Fitzpatrick's elimination. 2101
Kevin Cunningham @kevcunningham.bsky.social · 01/12/2024 My article in @TheSundayIndo attempting an explanation of yesterday's vote together with some fresh data. m.independent.ie/irish-news/e...m.independent.ieKevin Cunningham: FF-FG coalition is now so tightly knit it can only be broken up at huge risk to both partiesWhat have we discovered? 1165
Reposted by Kevin CunninghamStefan Müller @stefanmueller.bsky.social · 30/11/2024RTÉ Election Marathon Fantastic teamwork with @kevcunningham.bsky.social throughout the day! 🙌 #GE24 1162
Kevin Cunningham @kevcunningham.bsky.social · 30/11/2024Great work with Stefan working on our votes to seats model taking into account the individual's vote share/quota, their ranking relative to seats, number and vote share of running mates. Transfer friendliness of FF FG may change this further. We'll have to see! 1134
Reposted by Kevin CunninghamRichard Colwell @redcceo.bsky.social · 27/11/2024@businesspost poll 27th Nov (vs. 10th Nov) Fianna Fáil 21% (=) Fine Gael 20% (-2%) Sinn Fein 20% (+2%) Ind. Cand. 14% (-1%) Soc Dems 6% (=) Ind. Ireland 4% (+1%) Green 4% (=) Labour 4% (+1%) Aontú 4% (-1%) PBP-Solidarity 2% (=) Others 1% (=) Moe +\- 3% FW 20th-26th 3228
Reposted by Kevin CunninghamCónal Thomas @conalthomas90.bsky.social · 27/11/2024Our final general election Business Post/Red C poll. Fianna Fáil takes the lead as Fine Gael falls back and Sinn Féin eyes government- www.businesspost.ie/politics/red...businesspost.ieRed C Poll: Fianna Fáil takes the lead as Fine Gael falls back and Sinn Féin eyes governmentFinal poll comes ahead of last day of election campaign before Friday’s vote 055
Kevin Cunningham @kevcunningham.bsky.social · 27/11/2024'I mean they've had their ups and downs, but when all is said and done they're destined to be together.' 1113
Kevin Cunningham @kevcunningham.bsky.social · 27/11/2024Prime Time Debate poll conducted today... m.independent.ie/irish-news/e...m.independent.ieMajority of voters think Simon Harris lost final televised debate of the election campaign – pollTaoiseach Simon Harris’s path back to power has taken a further blow with the majority of voters believing he lost the last general election debate of the campaign, according to an opinion poll from I... 151
Reposted by Kevin CunninghamProf David Farrell, UCD @davidfarrell-ucd.bsky.social · 27/11/2024Gosh 185
Reposted by Kevin CunninghamProf David Farrell, UCD @davidfarrell-ucd.bsky.social · 27/11/2024A bit ambitious 2432
Reposted by Kevin CunninghamLiz Carolan @lizcarolan.com · 27/11/2024I’ve a round up of the digital campaign for #GE24 in the Irish Times; some nuggets > FF have an attack ad on SF housing they don’t want Dubs to see > Harris uploaded 60 TikToks in 2.5 wks, plus 45 to LinkedIn, yet viral moment dominate > IFP go big on YT ads www.irishtimes.com/opinion/2024...irishtimes.comLiz Carolan: Will Simon Harris’s 105 social media videos or the Freedom Party’s €1,000 a day sway the election?The winners, losers and biggest spenders of the online campaign 0127
Kevin Cunningham @kevcunningham.bsky.social · 26/11/2024Previously published this housing figure before looking at this breakdown. Perceptions on who best to tackle housing entirely dependent on your housing status. Owners/non-owners. "Which of the following do you think is best to tackle each of the following issues? Housing" 73014