Sign in

Patrick Flynn

@patrickjfl.bsky.social
1.4K followers 165 following 91 posts

Pollster and Senior Data Journalist at Focaldata. Hoping this platform takes off. (he/him) 🏳️‍🌈 patrick@focaldata.com

PostsRepliesMedia
Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl.bsky.social · 06/07/2026
New post from me on 'Ossoffism' and party brands in the US 👇 www.focaldata.com/blog/ossoffi...
focaldata.com
'Ossoffism' and the GOP's Elite Problem
This month's survey sought to find out which party’s brand was more ‘elite-coded’, and whether the nascent ‘Ossoffism’ has a future in US politics over the next few years.
000
Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl.bsky.social · 06/07/2026
The Republican brand in the US has become *heavily* 'elite-coded'. Out of 40 archetypes we tested in our latest survey with @financialtimes.com, billionaires, CEOs, and country club members were the most Republican-leaning groups in the eyes of American voters.
121
Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl.bsky.social · 22/06/2026
Labour electing Burnham unopposed is a big risk in my view. Sure, it avoids potential party in-fighting over the summer, but is that risk really bigger than electing a new PM in a matter of weeks where few MPs, let alone the public, actually know what his plan is for the country?
120
Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl.bsky.social · 09/05/2026
New post-locals piece with my brilliant colleague @matthewbprice.bsky.social unherd.com/2026/05/six-...
unherd.com
Six coping myths about the local election
021
Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl.bsky.social · 22/04/2026
Excited to reveal the first @focaldata.bsky.social House of Representatives MRP poll of 2026. 🔵 Democrats: 228 seats (+13) 🔴 Republicans: 207 seats (-13) Fieldwork conducted up to Monday this week, and the model accounts for last night's redistricting referendum in Virginia.
020
Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl.bsky.social · 11/03/2026
The economy might cost Donald Trump the House in November. Economic hardship is driving voter behaviour at more than twice the rate of the next biggest issue.
140
Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl.bsky.social · 10/03/2026
Greens up to a record high of 13% in our first post-G&D poll. 🟣 RFM: 27% (+1) 🔴 LAB: 20% (-1) 🔵 CON: 18% (-2) 🟠 LDM: 14% (-) 🟢 GRN: 13% (+3) ⚫️ Restore Britain: 2% (NEW) ⚫️ Your Party: <1% (NEW)
120
Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl.bsky.social · 04/03/2026
Attention spans have collapsed. So why are some politicians more popular than ever?
110
Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl.bsky.social · 25/02/2026
We're about to release a piece on the attention crisis gripping young people. Some pretty shocking stats in it
140
Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl.bsky.social · 13/02/2026
We just released our first US midterms polling of 2026. The main story is a familiar one, that the cost of living is again set to punish the incumbent. Since 2024, the Democrats' vote margin has increased by double digits with those most concerned about food/gas prices.
192
Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl.bsky.social · 13/02/2026
Great to see our latest geopolitics white paper written up by the Guardian's dataviz team! www.theguardian.com/world/ng-int...
theguardian.com
These charts show how Trump is isolating the US on the world stage
Analysis shows that the world is moving closer to China, as Trump’s isolationism rears its head at the United Nations
051
Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl.bsky.social · 05/02/2026
The geopolitical centre of gravity is shifting towards China, driven primarily by Europe's increased distance from the US under the Trump II era. We analysed decades of UN voting data to create a new US-China axis, and found the US advantage is at its lowest level this century.
2186
Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl.bsky.social · 04/02/2026
Over the last month, I've been analysing the results of thousands of UN votes to create a new geopolitical axis. I was struck by just how severe the Trump effect has been since his second term began. UK-US alignment is now at an all-time low.
051
Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl.bsky.social · 28/01/2026
guys...
130
Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl.bsky.social · 21/01/2026
Our first voting intention poll of 2026 sees Reform slipping to 26%, down 3 points since late November. 🟣 RFM: 26% (-3) 🔴 LAB: 21% (+1) 🔵 CON: 20% (+2) 🟠 LDM: 14% (+1) 🟢 GRN: 10% (-2)
2124
Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl.bsky.social · 16/12/2025
Pleased to say we've just launched a new white paper on digital sovereignty (a phrase we'll probably be hearing more of in the next 12 months). Download it here: www.focaldata.com/blog/britain...
focaldata.com
Britain's Digital Future: A new white paper from Focaldata
We are delighted to announce the release of our latest white paper, Britain's Digital Future: Why digital sovereignty could become
the next major political divide.
000
Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl.bsky.social · 25/11/2025
On the eve of the Autumn Budget, our latest polling finds that *over half* of 2024 Labour voters who are 'finding it difficult' economically have now switched parties. 17% now back the Greens, and a further 17% back Reform. 🧵
275
Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl.bsky.social · 21/11/2025
With COP30 coming to a close today, which party do Brits trust most on climate and energy topics? Greens are trusted most on core environmental issues, but fare less well on energy policy. Reflects a common issue, that voters aren't sure climate action = better economic outcomes.
120
Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl.bsky.social · 28/10/2025
Our latest blog looks at attitudes to proportional representation in the UK, and why the debate is likely to go mainstream in the next couple of years. But how would a PR referendum campaign go? What would the House of Commons look like under PR? 👇 www.focaldata.com/blog/has-the...
focaldata.com
Has the time come for Proportional Representation?
After bubbling away in policy circles since the AV referendum in 2011, the debate over electoral reform is likely to burst back into the mainstream in the coming years. There are a few major factors d...
342
Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl.bsky.social · 20/08/2025
NEW: Brits would back Zack Polanski if they had a vote in the Green Party leadership election. After seeing campaign videos from each candidate, voters across all age groups, parties and regions preferred Polanski to the Adrian Ramsay and Ellie Chowns candidacy 👇
75620
Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl.bsky.social · 20/08/2025
We've got some polling coming on the Green Party leadership race this week, with voting still open for party members. We showed the public videos from the two campaigns and asked who they would vote for if they were eligible. One campaign leads with voters of *all parties*.
181
Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl.bsky.social · 30/07/2025
We've just released a new white paper here at @focaldata.bsky.social, explaining why support for overseas aid has fallen among both voters and governments in the West, and why Net Zero risks going the same way. 🧵 Quick thread of some of the findings:
110
Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl.bsky.social · 18/07/2025
Small samples so would be careful over-interpreting, but seeing evidence of the young gender split in our poll (Reform at 25% with male 16-17 year olds, 10% with female)
130
Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl.bsky.social · 18/07/2025
Latest Westminster voting intention from us at @focaldata.bsky.social sees minor impact of votes at 16 (Reform's lead cut from 3.7 points to 3.3)
230
Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl.bsky.social · 17/05/2025
Stats-based forecast for tonight's Eurovision final. The model is based on a combination of historical voting patterns, running order analysis, betting odds, and my own subjective opinion. Basically a coin flip that Sweden 🇸🇪 gets its 8th victory tonight based on 5,000 simulations.
251
Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl.bsky.social · 02/05/2025
Labour about to fall into *sixth* including independents...
010
Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl.bsky.social · 28/04/2025
🇨🇦🧵 Quick thread on some of our findings ahead of today's Canadian election. Our headline results put the Liberals ahead, but we've uncovered evidence that the Conservatives may have won the election (or at least the most seats) if Trump had not won in November.
111
Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl.bsky.social · 25/04/2025
Our poll for Monday's Canadian election finds the Liberals with a narrow 3-point lead, with 40.5% of the vote to the Conservatives' 37.5%. Some very interesting findings under the hood -- more details coming over the weekend.
020
Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl.bsky.social · 15/04/2025
Latest UK voting intention from us finds Labour, Conservatives and Reform neck-and-neck... www.focaldata.com/blog/westmin...
731
Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl.bsky.social · 12/03/2025
New piece from me on where the public in 🇬🇧🇫🇷🇩🇪 stands on defence and security. www.focaldata.com/blog/will-se...
focaldata.com
Will security be the wedge issue which splits Europe’s radical right?
The radical right in Europe is achieving its best election results in history. In Germany, the far-right AfD surged to 21% of the vote in last month’s election, finishing in second place nationally fo...
120
Reposted by Patrick Flynn
Focaldata @focaldata.bsky.social · 04/03/2025
Yesterday, we presented some exclusive findings from a European survey (covering 🇫🇷🇩🇪🇬🇧) at the CEPS Ideas Lab in Brussels. With defence and security in the news, here are our key findings on that particular topic... 🧵
132
Reposted by Patrick Flynn
Will Jennings📉🗳️ @drjennings.bsky.social · 07/01/2025
Our analysis of the geography of GE2024 is now out in @politicalquarterly.bsky.social. This offers an important update of The Changing Electoral Map of England and Wales by @jwfurlong.bsky.social and me, published by OUP just ahead of the election. onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...
'Fragmented and Dealigned: The 2024 British General Election and the Rise of Place-Based Politics'. An article by Will Jennings, Jamie Furlong, Gerry Stoker, and Lawrence Mckay in The Political Quarterlly.

Abstract

While the outcome of the 2024 British general election signalled a resounding repudiation of the incumbent government—returning a 231-seat swing from the Conservatives to Labour—it did not radically overturn the geography of electoral outcomes in England and Wales. Indeed, demographic predictors of party vote for parliamentary constituencies at the aggregate level mostly represented a continuation of recent trends. With the Conservative Party's vote collapsing most in areas where it started highest—and where the Leave vote had been highest in 2016—Labour secured shock victories in relatively affluent parts of southern England as well as retaking all the ‘red wall’ constituencies in northern England that it lost in 2019, despite its national vote share only increasing slightly. This represented the other end of the ‘realignment’ observed in 2019: as the electoral tide went out on the Conservatives, the relative weakening of their support in areas with graduates, middle class professionals and mortgage holders came home to roost. The election exposed a fragmented and marginal map, bequeathing a fragile electoral future, despite the Starmer government's large parliamentary majority.
48035
Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl.bsky.social · 18/12/2024
Our final Bi_Focal of 2024 looks at the key lessons we've drawn from a very busy and consequential year of polling: what went well? What were the mega themes? What should the industry be doing going forward? www.focaldata.com/blog/bi-foca...
focaldata.com
Bi_Focal #21: Four lessons from a year in research
Explore key lessons from 2024, including innovations in opinion polling, demographic shifts, and the rise of zero-sum thinking. Learn how we expect MRP, 'wisdom of the crowds,' and qualitative researc...
010
Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl.bsky.social · 30/11/2024
In case we didn’t know already, Biden-Trump would have been a landslide…
030
Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl.bsky.social · 25/11/2024
Amazing to see!
060
Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl.bsky.social · 21/11/2024
This. Also one of the driving factors behind Trump's appeal to low interest voters (somewhat of an overlap between authenticity and entertainment as well).
231
Reposted by Patrick Flynn
Jack Bailey @jack-bailey.co.uk · 16/11/2024
It really is amazing just how big a difference institutions can make to our politics. Here's the effective number of seat-winning parties in New Zealand before and after it switched to a mixed-member proportional system
822275
Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl.bsky.social · 14/11/2024
This is starting to feel like a viable platform now, v exciting!
050
Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl.bsky.social · 12/11/2024
Anyone got starter packs / lists of English-speaking accounts to follow for the German election?
000
Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl.bsky.social · 12/11/2024
Brilliant tool for finding people to follow on here.
033
Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl.bsky.social · 07/11/2024
Hard to overstate just how rapid the changes in US party coalitions have been. The Democrats are now the party of high education *and* high income voters. Just 12 years ago, the inverse was true. On these terms, the Trump coalition was closer to Obama 2008 than the Harris one!
55919
Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl.bsky.social · 18/10/2024
This is a fascinating piece by @jamesbreckwoldt.bsky.social and well worth a read!
010
Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl.bsky.social · 24/09/2024
Are the polls underestimating Trump again? ✍️ New from me in Unherd unherd.com/newsroom/are...
unherd.com
Are the polls underestimating Trump — again?
In both the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, pollsters underestimated Donald Trump’s level of support. Using 538‘s election day polling averages, the Democratic candidate’s national lead over Tru...
010
Patrick Flynn @patrickjfl.bsky.social · 23/09/2024
The polls underestimated Donald Trump in 2016 and 2020. There's a risk that may happen again in November. Pollsters' reliance on self-reported likelihood to vote is causing some of the problem. 🧵
1127